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80%. 20%. Import Norway. Import Russia. Indigenous Production. Import Algeria. Imports. Import Others. Indigenous Production. Sources of Natural Gas Supply - European Union. 2001 Indigenous Net Imports 45% Production 55 %. 2002 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Sources of Natural Gas Supply - European Union
Source: Eurogas
2030Indigenous Imports 80% Production 20 %
2002Indigenous Net Imports 48% Production 52 %
2001Indigenous Net Imports 45% Production 55 %
13%
19%
12%
55%
1%
Import Norway
Import Russia
Import Algeria
Import Others
Indigenous Production
Indigenous Production
Imports
14%
18%
12%
53%
3%
Source: EU-forecast, EU Energy, Issue 86, July 2nd, 2004
80%
20%
3
Forecast of Gas Supply – OECD Europe
OECD European gas balance, 1990 - 2030
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
bcm
y
Indigenous production Africa Transition economies
Middle East Other
Source: „Security of Gas Supply in Open Markets - LNG and power at a turning point“, Edition 2004 (OECD/IEA)
4
New projects / Investment needs
Source: International Energy Agency (2002a).
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
LNG regasification
Storage
Transmission
Distribution
billion dollars
Alternative Scenario Reference Scenario
5
Requirements for realisation of new projects
Investment necessity in transmission networks US$ 50 to 75 billion in the next decades 1) Investment need in Russia, the Middle East and Africa not included
Prerequisites attractive investment climate for the natural gas industry in Europe Necessity for long term stable arrangements with relevant regulatory authority
1) Source: Gas Matters Today, 25.09.03 ref. IEA statement
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Gas Reserves around Europe
47,570 bcm~80 years
33,530 bcm~183 years
4,000 bcm~83 years
1,770 bcm~22 years
4,520 bcm~43 years
Source: OMV Gas GmbH, May 2004
Nabucco Gas Pipeline
New gas supply route to Europe from
Turkey to Austria
via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary
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Project Partners
OMV OMV Gas Gmbh, Austria
MOL MOL Natural Gas Transmission Ltd., Hungary
Transgaz S.N.T.G.N. Transgaz S.A., Romania
Bulgargaz Bulgargaz EAD, Bulgaria
BOTAS Botas Petroleum Pipeline Corporation, Turkey
9
Nabucco Gas Pipeline Strategic Goals of Project
Opening a new gas supply corridor for Europe from Middle East and Caspian regions
Raise transit profiles of participating project countries
Contribution to security of supply for partner countries and for Europe as a whole
Strengthening the turntable position of Austrian pipeline grid and the Hub Baumgarten within the European network
10
Nabucco Gas Pipeline Nabucco‘s Market Shares result from . . .
Cost competitiveness vis-a-vis other new projects
Large gas fields in Middle East and Caspian region
Supply diversity – relative to already linked sources
Nabucco partners take-off gas to partially meet their future gas demands
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Nabucco Gas PipelineProposed route
Source: OMV Gas GmbH, May 2004
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OMV Gas GmbH - Transmission Pipelines through Austria
WAG
TAGI + II
SOL
PENTAWest HAG
BaumgartenOberkappel
Arnoldstein
Murfeld
Burghausen
SLO HR
F
H
CZ
SK
0,72
1,62
0,19
0,18
34,82
5,65
D
I
21,06
N
2,60
0,26
2,89
NABUCCO
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Nabucco Gas Pipeline Basic Pipeline Data
Length of the Pipeline appr. 3,200 km Expected capacities (2020) Total capacity Turkey 25,5 – 31,0 bcmy Expected offtake in Transit countries 12,0 – 15,0 bcmy Total capacity to Austria Baumgarten 13,5 – 16,0 bcmy
Total Investment for plateau level 4.6 billion EUR
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Results of Market Study
Source: The Boston Consulting Group, June 2004
2,5 2,5
1215
2
8
13,5
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Base Case High Case Base Case High Case
bcm
Off take Transit Countries Capacity to Baumgarten
2010 2020
4,5
10,5
25,5
31,0
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Nabucco Gas PipelineTime schedule / Milestones (1) REALIZED
In October 2002 a co-operation agreement was signed by the project partners - goal is to conduct a feasibility study for constructing the pipeline
1H 2003 saw - the preliminary pipeline route approved and all border crossings fixed - the finalisation of the working program - the application for EU-funding
Interim market study was finalised in 2H 2003 and the technical and environmental studies started
1H 2004 saw first results of the Technical Working Group and initial considerations on legal and tax issues
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Nabucco Gas PipelineTime schedule / Milestones (2) REALIZED
Nabucco Company Pipeline Study GmbH, Vienna was found as Joint Venture of the five partners in February 2004. Scope of the Company:
- coordination of the study phases - coordination/execution of marketing activities - lobbying/negotiations with regulatory authorities - negotiations/marketing of the transportation capacity
Review of market study and refining of business model by end of June 2004
Appointment of ABN Amro as financial advisors to projectin July 2004
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Nabucco Gas Pipeline Time schedule / Milestones (3) TO BE REALIZED
Foreseen steps for the 2H 2004:
Finalisation of all study phases Final results of Technical Working Group Final run of business model Completion of financial feasibility study Assessment of legal frameworks and tax issues Negotiations with shippers
Basis for decision of the project partners how to proceed with the project.
Signing of Partnership Agreement for construction and operation phases.
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Nabucco Gas Pipeline Time schedule / Milestones (4) TO BE REALIZED
Finalisation of Feasibility Study End 2004
Detailed Technical Design / Environmental Assessment Study 2005 – Mid 2006
Construction to begin around 2H 2006
Construction completed and pipelineoperational around End 2009
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