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Slide 1
GEPW-5, London, February 2011
Future ECMWF Contributions to GEO
Main contributions to GEO offered by ECMWF:
- Long-standing expertise in numerical weather prediction
- Observing System Experiments (OSEs)
- TIGGE
- MACC
- Reanalysis work
Participation:
- Ministerial meetings
- Plenary meetings
- GEO HLWG
- User Interface Committee (UIC)
- Science and Technology Committee (STC)
Slide 2
Floods in Pakistan
GEPW-5, London, February 2011
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Contours at 1% levelShaded areas significant at 10% levelensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 90
Verification period: 26-07-2010/TO/01-08-2010Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF VarEPS-Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 22-07-2010: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 15-07-2010: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 08-07-2010: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 01-07-2010: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
Slide 3
GEPW-5, London, February 2011
GMES Atmosphere
Weather services
Atmosphericenvironmental services
Climate forcing by gases and aerosols
Long-range pollutant transport
European air quality
Dust outbreaks
Solar energy
UV radiation
• • • Environmental agencies
provide data & information on
Services related to the chemical and particulate content of the atmosphere
Slide 4
GEPW-5, London, February 2011
MACC Daily Service Provision
Air quality
Global Pollution
Aerosol
UV index
Biomass burning
Slide 5
GEPW-5, London, February 2011
Implications of coverage differences on trends
ERA sampled to have same coverage as CRUTEM3
ERA-40 for 1973-1988 ERA-Interim from 1989
Full ERA coverage
12months running means
Temperature anomaly (K) relative to 1989-1998, averaged over all land areas
Slide 6
Reanalyses
provide a complete picture of recent trends example: temperatureDeg C/decade, 1979-2001
GEPW-5, London, February 2011
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