Shifting International Trade Routes

International Economic Outlook: Shifting International Trade Routes

Larry Boorstein, Project Manager, AECOM

Prepared for Shifting International Trade

Routes, January 29-30, 2015, Tampa,

presented by AAPA in cooperation with the

U.S. Maritime Administration hosted by the

Port of Tampa Bay

.January 29, 2015

World merchandise trade

February 2, 2015

Source: World Trade

Organization, Secretariat for Trade,

September 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P

World merchandise tradeAnnual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year

World real GDP at market exchange rates

February 2, 2015

Source: World Trade

September 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P

World real GDP at market exchange ratesAnnual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year

Rest of world

North America

South and CentralAmerica

Europe

World merchandise imports

February 2, 2015

Source: Source: World Trade

September 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P

World Merchandise ImportsAnnual Percentage Growth Rate vs. Year

North America

Europe

Rest of world

World merchandise exports

February 2, 2015

Source: Source: World Trade

September 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P

World Merchandise Exports Annual Percent Growth Rate vs. Year

Rest of world

Europe

North America

Real GDP growth

February 2, 2015

Source: World Bank Global

Economic Prospects, January

2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f

Real GDP, percent change from previous year except interest rates vs. year

Indonesia

Brazil

South Africa

United States

United Kingdom

Euro Area

Russia

Real GDP growth, OECD and BRICS

February 2, 2015

2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f

World real GDP, percent change from previous year: OECD and BRICS vs. year

OECD real GDP BRICS real GDP

World real GDP and world trade volume growth

February 2, 2015

2015Page 8

2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f

World real GDP and World trade volume annual percentage growth rate vs. year

World real GDP (2010 PPP weights) World trade volume Ratio trade growth to GDP growth

GDP at current prices by country

February 2, 2015Source: IMF World Economic

Outlook, October 2014 through

Knoema

GDP based on PPP valuation

February 2, 2015

Source: IMF World Economic

Outlook, October 2014 through

Knoema

Growth in real GDP

February 2, 2015

Source: IMF, World Economic

Outlook, October 2014 Page 11

Growth in real GDP

February 2, 2015

Growth in real GDP

February 2, 2015Source: IMF, World Economic

Growth in real GDP

February 2, 2015

Growth in real GDP

February 2, 2015

Growth in real GDP

February 2, 2015Source: IMF, World Economic

Outlook, October 2014Page 16

World GDP in current USD

February 2, 2015Source: World Bank, January

2015Page 17

GDP by G-7, BRICS and Other World, 1960-2013 (USD)

Other World

G-7 GDP in current USD

2015Page 18

1.5E+13

2.5E+13

3.5E+13

GDP by G-7 Countries and Year, 1960-2013 (USD)

Canada

United Kingdom

France

Germany

United States

BRICS GDP in current USD

2015Page 19

1.2E+13

1.4E+13

1.6E+13

1.8E+13

GDP by BRICS Countries and Year, 1960-2013 (USD)

South Asia

Russian Federation

Brazil

EU, US, China and Japan GDP in current USD

2015Page 20

1.5E+13

GDP EU, US, China and Japan, 1960-2013 (USD)

European Union

United States

Share of World GDP, 2003

2015Page 21

G-7, 63.7%BRICS, 10.4%

Other World, 25.8%

Share of World GDP by G-7 and BRICS, 2003

Share of World GDP, 2013

2015Page 22

G-7, 46.1%

BRICS, 23.6%

Other World, 30.3%

Share of World GDP by G-7 and BRICS, 2013

Country Shares of World GDP, 2003

2015Page 23

United States

European Union

BrazilRussian Federation

IndiaCanada

Australia

Rest of World

SHARE OF WORLD GDP, 2003

Country Shares of World GDP, 2013

2015Page 24

United States

European Union

Brazil

Russian Federation

Canada

Australia

Rest of World

SHARE OF WORLD GDP, 2013

GDP by Country, 2003-2013

2015Page 25

0 1E+13 2E+13

United States

European Union

Brazil

Russian Federation

Canada

Australia

Rest of World

GDP by Country and Area, 2003-2013

2013 2003

United States merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014 Page 26

United States merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

United States services trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014

China merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

China merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

Canada merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

Canada merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

Mexico merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

Mexico merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

Germany merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

Germany merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

France merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

France merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

United Kingdom merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

United Kingdom merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

Italy merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

Italy merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

Japan merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

Japan merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

Brazil merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

Brazil merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

February 2, 2015Source: UN Comtrade, May 2014

Russian Federation, merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

Russian Federation merchandise trade by region

(USD billions)

India merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

India merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

South Africa merchandise trade, 2000-2013

(USD billions)

South Africa merchandise trade by region, 2013

(USD billions)

Saudi Arabia merchandise trade, 2000-2012

(USD billions)

Saudi Arabia merchandise trade by region, 2012

(USD billions)

Exports of manufactured goods, fuel and mining and

agricultural products (USD billions)

February 2, 2015

Source: World Trade

Organization, International Trade

Statistics, 2014

Exports of manufactured goods, fuel and mining, and

agricultural products (USD billions)

February 2, 2015Presentation Title Page 56

Leading merchandise traders, exports vs. imports, 2013

(USD billions)

February 2, 2015

Source: World Trade

Organization, International Trade

Statistics, 2014

World surface transportation routes

February 2, 2015Source: Trader2Trader Page 58

Panama Canal Expansion Project

February 2, 2015Presentation Title Page 59

U.S. intermodal and interstate highway corridors

February 2, 2015Source: Maritime Administration Page 60

Routes from Northeast Asia to Major North American

destinations

February 2, 2015

Source: Parsons Brinckerhoff,

Panama Canal Expansion Study,

Nicaragua Canal

February 2, 2015

Source: HKND Group and ERM,

Nicaragua Canal Project

Description, December 2014

Nicaragua Canal dimensions

February 2, 2015

Description, December 2014

Nicaragua Canal target vessels

February 2, 2015

Description, December 2014Page 64

Panama and Nicaragua canal design vessels and largest

containerships

February 2, 2015_ Page 65

Canal design vessels vs. largest containerships

Design vessels

Panama Nicaragua APM CSCL MSC

Canal Canal McKinney Globe Oscar

Maersk

TEU 12,000 25,000 18,340 19,100 19,224

Length m 366 500 400 400 395.4

Width m 49 72 59 58.6 59

Draft m 15.2 18 16 16 16

Containership fleet

February 2, 2015Source: Clarkson Page 66

100-999 teu 1000-2999 teu 3000+ teu 3000-7999 teu 8000-11999 teu 12000+ teu

Feeder Hdy/Sub-P Panamax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax

2013 685.7 3399.1 3764 3667.9 3541.8 2057.5

2014 659.3 3355.8 3617.9 3812.3 4089.9 2676.1

Containership fleet by teu capacity, 2013-2014('000 teu)

Containership orderbook

February 2, 2015Source: Clarkson Page 67

100-999 teu 1000-2999 teu 3000+ teu 3000-7999 teu 8000-11999 teu 12000+ teu

Feeder Hdy/SubP Panamax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax Post-Pmax

2013 7.7 255.8 34.9 478.9 1558.5 1673.5

2014 3.6 311.7 13 224.8 1175.3 1551.2

Containership orderbook by teu capacity, 2013-2014('000 teu)

APM McKinney Maersk Triple E 18,340 TEU ship –

400 m long x 59 m wide x 16 m draft

CSCL Globe 19,100 TEU ship -

400 m long x 58.6 m wide x 16 m draft

MSC Oscar 19,224 TEU containership -

395.4 m long x 59 m wide x 16 m draft

Suez Canal

February 2, 2015Source: World Shipping Council Page 71

Suez Canal expansion project

February 2, 2015Source: Reuters, theloadstar.co.uk

through Al ArabiyaPage 72

New Suez Canal project

February 2, 2015Source: Suez Canal Authority Page 73

Northern Sea Route vs. Southern Sea Route via Suez

Arctic ice, 1980-2012

(million sq. km)

February 2, 2015

Source: National Snow and Ice

Data Center in Council on Foreign

Relations, The Thawing Arctic

Northern Sea Route from China to Europe and

Northwest Passage from China to U.S. East Coast

February 2, 2015Source: Chinese Arctic and

Antarctic AdministrationPage 76

Trans-Siberian railway

February 2, 2015Source: TransSiberian Info Page 77

China to Europe via Kazakhstan railway

Block Train Service China - Europe

February 2, 2015Source: China Daily, 2013-10-30 Page 79

Bering Straits rail tunnel

February 2, 2015Source: InterBering LLC Page 80

Crude oil prices, 2005-2015

February 2, 2015Source: NASDAQ.com, January

26,2015Page 81

Expansion of Cuba trade

February 2, 2015Source: crowley.com; reuters.com Page 82

Thank you.

Larry Boorstein

larry.boorstein@aecom.com

Cell +1-703-625-8414

AECOM Technical Services, Inc.

2101 Wilson Blvd 8th Fl

Arlington VA 22201-3044

January 29, 2015

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