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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
November 18, 2015
Monthly Update
DRL warning letter, India slowdown in Q2… For Q2FY16, the I-direct pharma universe (ex-Sun Pharma) registered YoY revenue growth of 15.8% to | 27744 crore, driven by strong growth in the US. US growth, in turn, was driven by one-off opportunities of Torrent Pharma and Alembic Pharma for gAbilify and Cipla for gNexium. However, slow growth in the domestic acute segment owing to withdrawal of bonus offers to distributors and a poor monsoon spell kept the overall pharma universe growth in check. The quarter also witnessed currency headwinds in emerging markets like Russia, Venezuela, Franco Africa and Latin America. The EBITDA for the universe grew 34.4% YoY to | 6958 crore. Higher growth vis-à-vis revenue growth was on account of margin expansion as stronger US traction nullified the currency impact in emerging markets and even higher R&D spends. Adjusted net profit also grew 34.4% YoY to | 4279.8 crore. On the revenue front, Alembic Pharma (~84% YoY), Torrent Pharma (~39% YoY) and Cipla (~25% YoY) registered strongest growth driven by robust US sales. Apart from these, Ajanta, Cadila and Apollo Hospitals also reported strong revenue growth. On the other hand Lupin, Glenmark, Ipca, Dr Reddy’s, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Indoco and Jubilant reported a weak set of numbers due to lack of product approvals, impact of currency volatility and lack of launches for want of regulatory issues at the plant level. In a major blow to DRL, USFDA has slapped a warning letter on three of its plants. These include two API facilities at Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh & Miryalaguda, Telangana and one oncology formulation facility at Duvvada, Vishakhapatnam. The management indicated that together these three facilities contribute 10-12% to revenues. Cipla's Indore facility also received nine 483 observations from USFDA related to quality control and product safety. On the domestic front, the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) registered robust growth of 21.8% YoY to | 8601 crore for October. Growth was mainly driven by volume growth – 13.2% (albeit on a lower base), price hikes – 5.5% and new product launches – 3.2%. On a MAT basis, IPM growth was at 14.7% YoY to | 94495 crore. Among our covered companies, Glenmark registered highest growth of 43.6% YoY followed by Alembic, Unichem, Ipca, Lupin and Cadila registering growth of 31.4%, 26.6%, 25.8%, 22.2% and 22.1% respectively. Compliance issues, subdued numbers likely to keep pharma fleet grounded The DRL warning letter and a possibility of a similar kind of embargo for Sun Pharma have somewhat dampened the mood in the pharma space besides subdued numbers from Lupin and Sun. Similarly, the slowdown in Indian branded formulations was also a negative surprise as this segment was supposed to be a safe haven. Most companies cited the seasonality aspect and poor monsoon as the main reason, which predominantly affected the anti-infective segment. Despite these odds we continue to maintain our long term bullish view on the sector on the back of earning visibility, consistent operating cash flows and strong balance sheets besides thrust for higher R&D spend. We believe current USFDA issues will strengthen the quality compliance aspects of most companies, which own US franchisees. EM currency issues and domestic formulation slowdown seem to be temporary issues. Lupin and DRL are our top picks from the large cap pharma space whereas Cadila, Torrent and Ajanta Pharma are our preferred picks from the midcap space, among others.
Health CheckSector view
Outperformer
Index performance as on November 17, 2015
Return (%) 1M 3M YTD 1Y
CNX 500 -4 -8 -3 -4
Nifty -5 -8 -6 -7
CNX Pharma -11 -9 7 6
Return (%)
Stock performance
Mcap
Company 1M 3M YTD 1Y 17-Nov
Sun Pharma.Inds. -15 -15 -9 -13 214053
Lupin -13 3 26 24 92336
Dr Reddy's Labs -21 -19 4 -2 71509
Cipla -6 -6 2 5 54563
Aurobindo Pharma 3 5 46 45 48408
Cadila Health. -2 3 28 33 43970
Glenmark Pharma. -4 -15 27 24 28376
Divi's Lab. 5 -2 31 31 28924
Glaxosmit Pharma -6 -15 -3 9 27944
Torrent Pharma. 2 -3 37 56 26567
Apollo Hospitals -9 -3 16 14 19800
Wockhardt 1 -4 60 97 17551
Ajanta Pharma -10 -18 46 56 13763
Alembic Pharma -8 -10 49 46 12789
Pfizer -1 5 12 44 11460
Ipca Labs. -1 -7 4 13 9520
Natco Pharma -4 11 63 80 8970
Biocon 0 -6 6 2 8907
Strides Arcolab 7 3 42 88 7815
Jubilant Life 5 14 237 193 6549
Indoco Remedies -7 -16 -2 -1 3095
Unichem Labs. -6 18 17 22 2572
Return (%)
MMarket cap in | crore
Price movement
50006000700080009000
100001100012000130001400015000
Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
CNX Pharma Nifty (RHS)
Research Analyst
Siddhant Khandekar siddhant.khandekar@icicisecurities.com Mitesh Shah mitesh.sha@icicisecurities.com
Nandan Kamat nandan.kamat@icicisecurities.com
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 2
Regulatory approvals
Exhibit 1: Summary of USFDA approvals for October 2015
[5
Company Drug Name Therapeutic Area Innovator company Generic Version of Market SizeAlembic Pharma Memantine Hydrochloride CNS Forest Labs Namenda US$ 1.1 billionAurobindo Pharma Tramadol Hydrochloride Anti-inflammatory Valeant Intl Ultram ER US$ 132 millionAurobindo Pharma Memantine Hydrochloride CNS Forest Labs Namenda US$ 1.1 billionAurobindo Pharma Aripiprazole CNS Otsuka Abilify US$ 7.8 billionGlenmark Pharma Betamethasone Dipropionate; Clotrimazole Dermatology Merck Sharp Dohme Lotrisone NAJubilant Life Sciences Rizatriptin Benzoate CNS Merck Maxalt - MLT NAJubilant Life Sciences Memantine Hydrochloride CNS Forest Labs Namenda US$ 1.1 billionJubilant Life Sciences Indomethacin Anti-Inflammatory Iroko Pharma Tivorbex NALupin Donepezil Hydrochloride CNS Eisai Inc. Aricept US$ 52.3 millionLupin Blisovi 24 FE Sex-stimulant Warner Chilcott Estrostep 21 NATorrent Pharma Esomeprazole Magnesium GI Astrazeneca Nexium US$ 7.3 billionTorrent Pharma Memantine Hydrochloride CNS Forest Labs Namenda US$ 1.1 billionUnichem Labs Memantine Hydrochloride CNS Forest Labs Namenda US$ 1.1 billionUnichem Labs Montelukast Sodium Anti-asthama Merck Singulair US$ 3.5 billion
Company Drug Name Therapeutic Area Innovator company Generic Version of Market SizeAjanta Pharma Irbesartan Anti-Hypertensive Sanofi Aventis Avapro US$ 50 millionAjanta Pharma Omeprazole; Sodium Bicarbonate GI Santarus Zegerid NAAurobindo Pharma Tadalafil CVS Eli Lilly Adcirca NAGlenmark Pharma Lacosamide Epilepsy UCB Inc Vimpat US$ 365 millionLupin Milnacipran Hydrochloride CNS Forest Labs Fetzima NATorrent Pharma Olmesartan Medoxomil CVS Daiichi Sankyo Benicar NA
Final Approvals
Tentative Approvals
CNS: Central Nervous System; CVS: Cardiovascular, NA: Not available; Source: USFDA, ICICIdirect.com Research
M&As, demergers and JVs
Sun Pharma completes InSite Vision acquisition Sun Pharma has completed the acquisition of US-based eye care company InSite Vision. In September, the company had announced its plan to acquire InSite Vision for around US$48 million plus related debt and other transaction costs to strengthen its branded ophthalmic portfolio in the US. Natco launches Hepatitis C drug in Nepal Natco Pharma launched chronic Hepatitis C drug Hepcinat in Nepal. Natco had signed a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Gilead Sciences earlier in 2015, to manufacture and sell generic versions of its chronic hepatitis C medicines, including Harvoni in India and other 100 developing countries. Cipla to sell Biomab stake Cipla plans to sell its entire 25% stake in Biomab Holding, Hong Kong to Biomab Brilliant, which holds the remaining 75% stake in BHL, for a total consideration of US$25.8 million. Glenmark enters into agreement with Celon Pharma Glenmark Pharma entered into an agreement with Celon Pharma to develop and market a generic version of GSK's Seretide Accuhaler in Europe used for treatment of lung diseases. Capex/Investments/Fund raising
FIPB rejects Apollo Hospitals’ proposal FIPB has rejected Apollo Hospitals' proposal seeking to allow foreign direct investment (FDI) into the company through a | 750 crore rights issue. Lawsuits/court rulings/settlements
Sun Pharma settles litigation with Acorda Therapeutics Sun Pharma has settled a patent litigation with US-based Acorda Therapeutics over Ampyra extended-release tablets (multiple sclerosis). As a result of the settlement agreement, Sun will be permitted to market gAmpyra in US in 2027, or potentially earlier under certain circumstances.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
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Price cuts/ New Launches / Recalls
DPCO revises prices of 18 new products Prices of 18 formulation packs have been fixed/revised under the Drug Price Control Order (DPCO), 2013. Cipla, Alembic Pharma and Unichem Laboratories will be impacted by the government's move on prices fixation and revision. Sun Pharma initiates Class-III recall Sun Pharma has recalled over 10 lakh boxes of its anti-allergic Loratadine drug from the US market as the lot was found to be 'super potent' and 'out of specification'. The recall has been put under Class-III. Import alerts/Warning letters/483 observations
DRL receives warning letters for three of its facilities Dr Reddy’s (DRL) has received a warning letter from the USFDA for three of its manufacturing facilities. These include two API facilities at Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh and Miryalaguda, Telangana and one oncology formulation facility at Duvvada, Vishakhapatnam. Inspections for these facilities were conducted in November 2014, January 2015 and February 2015, respectively. The management has indicated that together these three facilities contribute 10-12% to revenues. Cipla receives 483 observations Cipla's Indore facility has received nine 483 Observations from the USFDA. The observations related to quality control and product safety. Others
Torrent Pharma commences new facility Torrent Pharma has commenced production in phase I from its new plant in Dahej, Gujarat. The facility has been set up in two phases, the first phase of which has come up at an investment of | 650 crore. Cadila Healthcare to start Phase II clinical trials for Saroglitazar USFDA has endorsed Zydus Cadila’s plan to initiate Phase II clinical trials for Hypertriglyceridemia drug Saroglitazar for three dosages (1 mg, 2 mg & 4 mg). More than four million adults in the US suffer from severe Hypertriglyceridemia. Q2FY16 results
Adverse product mix hits Apollo margins Revenues increased 20% YoY to | 1265 crore on the back of 34.7% YoY increase in pharmacy business to | 520.1 crore. The healthcare business grew 11.6% to | 745 crore to | 745 crore. EBITDA margins declined only 52 bps to 14.3% on account of an adverse product mix. EBITDA increased 15.8% YoY to | 181.1 crore. Net profit rose 9.8% to | 90.8 crore. US driven growth continues for Aurobindo Pharma Revenues grew 15.7% YoY to | 3333.5 crore on account of 25.8% growth in the US to | 1477.5 crore. The Europe business remained flat at | 764.3 crore. EBITDA margins increased 115 bps YoY to 23.3% due to lower employee cost and other expenditure. EBITDA grew 21.7% to | 775.6 crore. Adjusted net profit (ex-forex loss) grew 23.0% YoY to | 456.5 crore owing to a better operational performance and lower taxation.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
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Ajanta Pharma maintains growth tempo Revenues grew 17.7% YoY to | 437.7 crore on the back of 20.8% growth in exports to | 302 crore. Domestic sales grew 14.9% to | 131 crore. EBITDA margins improved 51 bps YoY to 35.1% on account of 280 bps improvement in gross profit margins to 77.3%. EBITDA increased 19.4% YoY to | 153.8 crore. Net profit increased 20.4% YoY to | 100 crore on the back of a robust operational performance. Alembic Pharma witnesses blow-out quarter driven by gAbilify Revenues grew 84.4% YoY to | 1008.8 crore, mainly on account of windfall gains from gAbilify (CNS) exclusivity launch in the US. Export generic formulation sales grew 352.8% to | 559.3 crore. On the other hand, domestic formulation sales grew just 0.6% to | 309.7 crore on account of de-growth in Acute segment and animal health business. EBITDA margins increased 1748 bps YoY to 37.3% owing to gAbilify exclusivity sales. EBITDA grew 247.2% YoY to | 376.0 crore. Net profit grew 269.3% YoY to | 288.5 crore owing to a robust operational performance. Biocon registers steady growth driven by Syngene Revenues grew 10.5% YoY to | 836.9 crore. The growth was driven by ~30% growth in the research segment (Syngene) to | 250.4 crore. The biopharma segment grew 2.3% YoY to | 442.8 crore while the branded formulations segment grew 2.6% to | 119 crore. EBITDA margins improved 73 bps YoY to 23.6%. EBITDA grew 14% to | 197.4 crore. Adjusted net profit increased 0.7% to | 102.9 crore. The company generated net exceptional income of ~| 203 crore due to Syngene IPO proceeds and one-time provision. High margins come as surprise for Cadila Healthcare Revenues grew 16.7% YoY to | 2459.5 crore mainly on the back of 25.2% YoY growth in the US formulations business to | 1003.8 crore. Domestic formulations grew 10.4% to | 751.3 crore. EBITDA margins improved 529 bps to 25.3% due to better gross margins. Gross margins improved from 61% to 67.2%. EBITDA grew 47.6% YoY to | 621.3 crore. PAT grew 40.6% YoY to | 390.9 crore boosted mainly by a strong operational performance. Cipla registers growth on back of gNexium Revenues grew 24.8% YoY to | 3452.4 crore, on account of 50.8% growth in export formulation to | 1874 crore. Domestic formulations grew only 0.9% YoY to | 1262 crore. EBITDA margins increased 269 bps to 22.9% mainly on account of better gross margins and lower other expenditure. EBITDA grew 41.4% YoY to | 789.4 crore. Net profit grew 44.4% YoY to | 431.2 crore on account of a better operational performance. Divi’s Labs maintains growth tempo Revenues grew 15.7% YoY to | 964.3 crore. The generic business grew 19.5% to | 483.0 crore. The CS business grew 13.4% to | 432.8 crore. EBITDA margins improved ~217 bps YoY to 39.0% mainly due to operational leverage and volume expansion. EBITDA grew 22.6% YoY to | 376.0 crore. Net profit grew 28.8% YoY to | 295.7 crore mainly on the back of a robust operational performance. Despite headwinds margin improvement continues for DRL Revenues grew 11.2% YoY to | 3989.0 crore mainly due to strong growth in developed market sales. US sales grew 29.9% to | 1856.3 crore due to Habitrol acquisition, new products launches and market share gain. EBITDA margins increased 592 bps YoY to 29.4% mainly due to lower raw material and SG&A expenses as percentage of sales. EBITDA increased 39.2% to | 1172.4 crore. Net profit increased 25.7% YoY to | 721.9 crore.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
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Glenmark delivers strong all-round performance Revenues grew 11.5% YoY to | 1874.6 crore mainly due to 27.3% YoY growth in domestic markets to | 608.5 crore and 21.2% YoY growth in RoW markets to | 210.9 crore. US sales grew 17.9% YoY to | 598.4 crore. EBITDA margins rose 146 bps YoY to 21.4% due to better gross profit margins. Gross profit margins increased 335 bps YoY to 70.7%. EBITDA increased 19.7% YoY to | 401.9 crore. Net profit increased 21.5% YoY to | 200.4 crore due to a robust operational performance. Restructuring hurts Indoco’s domestic sales Revenues grew 11.6% YoY to | 254.9 crore due to 23.7% YoY growth in export formulations to | 92.9 crore. Domestic formulations grew just 0.5% to | 138.1 crore. EBITDA margins declined 334 bps YoY to 17.9% mainly on account of an increase in employee expenses. EBITDA de-grew 6% to | 45.8 crore. Net profit grew 0.9% YoY to | 22.6 crore. Another washed out quarter for Ipca as export uncertainty remains Revenues de-grew 4% YoY to | 749.2 crore mainly due to 26% YoY de-growth in export formulations to | 227.43 crore. Domestic formulations grew a meagre 1% to | 330.8 crore. EBITDA margins declined 536 bps YoY to 11.9% mainly due to lower gross margins and higher employee cost as percentage of sales. EBITDA de-grew 33.8% to | 89.2 crore. Net profit de-grew 82.7% YoY to | 11.7 crore due to low operational performance and foreign exchange transaction loss of | 23.9 crore. Jubilant maintains margins momentum Revenues increased 6.7% YoY to | 1463.1 crore. Revenue in the pharmaceutical business grew 21.8% YoY to | 748 crore while life science ingredients (LSI) revenue de-grew 5.8% YoY to | 715 crore. EBITDA margins improved ~1382 bps YoY to 21.9% on the back of 1755 bps YoY increase in pharmaceutical EBITDA margins to 28.8% and 839 bps YoY increase in life science ingredients (LSI) margins to 16.5%. EBITDA increased 188.8% YoY to | 320.6 crore. Adjusted net profit was at | 113.5 crore on the back of a robust operational performance. US slowdown hits Lupin performance Revenues grew 4.7% YoY to | 3321.3 crore. US sales de-grew 9.2% to | 1155 crore on the back of a slowdown in product approvals and increased competition. Domestic revenues grew 9.4% to | 873.8 crore. Despite an adverse product mix, the company maintained gross profit margins at 66% YoY. EBITDA margins declined 600 bps to 20.2% mainly on account of higher employee expenses and other expenditure. Net profit declined 35.1% YoY to | 408.8 crore owing to a poor operational performance. Domestic prospects add to global opportunities for Natco Pharma Revenues grew 7.1% YoY to | 234.9 crore. Formulation sales grew 32.8% to | 191.2 crore while API sales de-grew 40.1% to | 39 crore. EBITDA margins declined 193 bps YoY to 24.9% mainly on account of higher employee expenses. EBITDA remained flat at | 58.5 crore. Adjusted net profit declined 8.6% YoY to | 29.6 crore. Remediation, integration work hurt Sun’s numbers Revenues de-grew 14.8 YoY to | 6837.6 crore mainly due to a decline in US sales. US sales declined 23.4% YoY to | 3315.8 crore primarily due to competitive pressure in existing products and temporary supply constraints from Halol facility. Domestic sales increased mere 1.3% YoY to | 1818.7 crore due to inventory adjustment and slow growth in the acute segment led by withdrawal of bonus offers and a soft season. EBITDA margins declined 837 bps YoY to 28.3% due to an increase in employee cost & other expenditure. EBITDA declined 34.3% YoY to | 1933.7 crore. Net profit declined 45.4% YoY | 1106.7 crore mainly due to a below par operational performance.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
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gAbilify drives growth for Torrent Pharma Revenues grew 39% YoY to | 1691 crore mainly due to 326% YoY growth in the US to | 711.4 crore on the back of gAbilify launched under exclusivity. Domestic revenues remained flat YoY at | 442 crore due to discontinuance of certain promotional schemes to improve margins. EBITDA margins increased 1979 bps to 42.2%. EBITDA grew 161.5% YoY to | 714.0 crore. Net profit posted growth of 187% YoY to | 568 crore owing to a strong operating performance. Unichem revenues in line but margins still tepid Revenues grew 9.9% YoY to | 305.6 crore on account of 13.1% YoY growth in domestic formulations to | 188.5 crore and 43% growth in US sales to | 51 crore. EBITDA margins declined 73 bps YoY to 11.3%. GPM was at 60.4%. EBITDA increased 3.1% YoY to | 34.4 crore. Net profit increased a mere 3.5% YoY to | 23.1 crore.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
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Q2FY16 Results Review For Q2FY16, the I-direct pharma universe (ex-Sun Pharma) registered YoY revenue growth of 15.8% to | 27744 crore, driven by strong growth in the US. US growth, in turn, was driven by one-off opportunities of Torrent Pharma and Alembic Pharma for gAbilify and Cipla for gNexium. However, slow growth in the domestic acute segment owing to withdrawal of bonus offers to distributors and poor monsoon spell kept the overall pharma universe growth in check. The quarter also witnessed currency headwinds in emerging markets such as Russia, Venezuela, Franco Africa and Latin America. EBITDA for the universe grew 34.4% YoY to | 6958 crore. Higher growth vis-à-vis revenue growth was on account of margin expansion as stronger US traction nullified the currency impact in emerging markets and even higher R&D spends. Adjusted net profit also grew 34.4% YoY to | 4279.8 crore.
Exhibit 2: Actual s vs. estimates
Q2FY16E Q2FY16 Q2FY16E Q2FY16 Q2FY16E Q2FY16Ajanta Pharma 416.5 437.7 137.4 153.8 93.1 100.0Alembic Pharma 873.0 1008.8 286.6 376.0 219.2 288.5Aurobindo Pharma 3595.0 3333.5 808.9 775.6 493.3 509.7Biocon 825.7 836.9 173.4 197.4 105.8 102.9Cadila Healthcare 2439.9 2459.5 536.8 621.3 374.8 391.1Divi's Lab 935.3 964.3 352.6 376.0 261.2 295.7Cipla 3828.9 3452.4 1030.5 789.4 667.2 431.2Dr. Reddys 3868.2 3989.0 1015.4 1139.2 650.5 716.3Glenmark 1746.6 1874.6 352.1 401.9 184.2 200.4Indoco Remedies 242.7 254.9 46.1 45.8 24.4 22.6IPCA Labs 825.2 749.2 138.4 89.2 74.8 25.7Jubilant Life Sc. 1480.0 1463.1 307.4 320.6 108.4 113.5Lupin 3280.3 3321.3 852.9 672.1 539.8 408.8Natco Pharma 252.9 234.9 65.8 58.5 36.1 29.6Sunpharma 7064.1 6837.6 1918.4 1933.7 1194.3 1106.7Torrent Pharma 2259.7 1691.0 1039.1 714.0 888.7 526.9Unichem Laboratories 301.8 305.6 40.9 34.4 27.7 23.1Apollo Hospitals 1330.3 1367.3 194.4 193.2 96.4 93.7Total 28502.0 27743.9 7378.7 6958.3 4845.6 4279.8
CompanyRevenues EBITDA Net profit
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research; Total ex-Sun Pharma
Exhibit 3: Quarterly performance of I-direct Healthcare coverage
Company Q2FY16 Q2FY15 Var.(%) Q2FY16 Q2FY15 Var.(%) Q2FY16 Q2FY15 Var.(%)Ajanta Pharma 437.7 371.9 17.7 153.8 128.8 19.4 100.0 83.0 20.4Alembic Pharma 1008.8 547.1 84.4 376.0 108.3 247.2 288.5 78.1 269.3Aurobindo Pharma 3333.5 2881.2 15.7 775.6 637.2 21.7 509.7 414.2 23.0Biocon 836.9 757.6 10.5 197.4 173.1 14.0 102.9 102.1 0.7Cadila Healthcare 2459.5 2108.0 16.7 621.3 421.0 47.6 391.1 277.9 40.7Divi's Lab 964.3 833.1 15.7 376.0 306.8 22.6 295.7 229.6 28.8Cipla 3452.4 2767.3 24.8 789.4 558.4 41.4 431.2 298.7 44.4Dr. Reddys 3989.0 3587.8 11.2 1139.2 842.2 35.3 716.3 569.0 25.9Glenmark 1874.6 1680.7 11.5 401.9 335.8 19.7 200.4 165.0 21.5Indoco Remedies 254.9 228.4 11.6 45.8 48.6 -5.9 22.6 22.4 0.9IPCA Labs 749.2 780.6 -4.0 89.2 134.8 -33.8 25.7 67.7 -62.0Jubilant Life Sc. 1463.1 1371.1 6.7 320.6 111.0 188.8 113.5 -98.7 PLLupin 3321.3 3173.4 4.7 672.1 832.5 -19.3 408.8 630.0 -35.1Natco Pharma 234.9 219.2 7.1 58.5 58.8 -0.6 29.6 32.4 -8.6Sunpharma 6837.6 8030.0 -14.8 1933.7 2943.2 -34.3 1106.7 2028.3 -45.4Torrent Pharma 1691.0 1217.0 38.9 714.0 273.0 161.5 526.9 198.0 166.1Unichem Laboratories 305.6 278.2 9.9 34.4 33.4 3.1 23.1 22.3 3.5Apollo Hospitals 1367.3 1152.9 18.6 193.2 172.6 11.9 93.7 91.5 2.4Total 27743.9 23955.5 15.8 6958.3 5176.5 34.4 4279.8 3183.3 34.4
ProfitRevenues EBITDA
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research, LP: Loss to Profit; Total ex-Sun Pharma
Geographical/segmental performance in Q2FY16
(| crore) Q2FY16 Q2FY15 Var. (%) Q1FY16 Var. (%)Ajanta 124.0 102.0 21.6 128.0 -3.1Alembic 309.7 248.5 24.6 283.2 9.4Biocon 119.0 116.0 2.6 112.0 6.3Cadila 751.3 680.8 10.4 741.6 1.3Glenmark 608.5 478.2 27.3 472.9 28.7Indoco 138.1 137.4 0.5 124.4 11.0Ipca 330.8 327.9 0.9 318.1 4.0Lupin 873.8 799.0 9.4 885.1 -1.3Cipla 1262.0 1251.0 0.9 1397.0 -9.7Dr Reddy's 546.4 479.9 13.9 475.6 14.9Sun Pharma 1818.7 1795.6 1.3 1783.7 2.0Torrent 441.0 444.0 -0.7 491.0 -10.2Unichem 188.5 166.6 13.1 194.3 -3.0Total 5693.0 5231.3 8.8 5623.2 1.2
India
Total ex-Sun Pharma
(| crore) Q2FY16 Q2FY15 Var. (%) Q1FY16 Var. (%)Aurobindo 1477.5 1174.3 25.8 1429.4 3.4Cadila 1003.8 802.0 25.2 985.0 1.9Glenmark 598.4 507.6 17.9 561.1 6.7Lupin 1155.0 1271.6 -9.2 1190.6 -3.0Dr Reddy's 1856.3 1429.3 29.9 1851.5 0.3Sun Pharma 3315.8 4327.1 -23.4 3090.6 7.3Torrent 712.0 167.0 326.3 888.0 -19.8
Total 6803.0 5351.8 27.1 6905.6 -1.5
US
Total ex-Sun Pharma
(| crore) Q2FY16 Q2FY15 Var. (%) Q1FY16 Var. (%)Aurobindo 764.3 766.5 -0.3 741.7 3.0Cadila 65.2 77.7 -16.1 83.6 -22.0Glenmark 160.4 130.6 22.8 109.9 46.0Dr Reddy's 32.4 23.2 39.9 30.1 7.8Lupin 115.8 87.6 32.2 85.6 35.3Torrent 186.0 190.0 -2.1 183.0 1.6Total 1324.1 1275.5 3.8 1233.8 7.3
Europe
(| crore) Q2FY16 Q2FY15 Var. (%) Q1FY16 Var. (%)Cadila 52.7 64.7 -18.5 55.3 -4.7Glenmark 165.7 230.9 -28.2 218.5 -24.2Torrent 131.0 160.0 -18.1 138.0 -5.1Total 349.4 455.6 -23.3 411.8 -15.2
Latin America
(| crore) Q2FY16 Q2FY15 Var. (%) Q1FY16 Var. (%)Aurobindo 691.1 685.0 0.9 723.0 -4.4Alembic 137.2 93.6 46.5 116.8 17.4Cadila 90.7 88.7 2.3 98.0 -7.4Glenmark 165.5 159.5 3.7 134.9 22.6Indoco 14.6 13.5 7.7 12.0 21.7Ipca Labs 180.4 140.7 28.2 208.1 -13.3Lupin 321.9 318.3 1.1 325.7 -1.2Cipla 226.0 135.9 66.3 206.0 9.7Dr Reddy's 591.8 639.2 -7.4 561.4 5.4Sun Pharma 328.7 303.6 8.3 292.8 12.3Unichem 24.8 29.5 -15.9 27.2 -8.8Total 2443.9 2304.0 6.1 2413.1 1.3
API
Total ex-Sun Pharma
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Page 8
On the revenue front, Alembic Pharma (~84% YoY), Torrent Pharma (~39% YoY) and Cipla (~25% YoY) registered strongest growth driven by robust US sales. Apart from these Ajanta, Cadila and Apollo Hospitals also reported strong revenue growth. On the other hand Lupin, Glenmark, Ipca, Dr Reddy’s, Sun Pharma, Indoco and Jubilant reported a weak set of numbers due to lack of product approvals, impact of currency volatility and lack of launches for want of regulatory issues at the plant level. Revenues from the US (ex-Sun Pharma) grew ~27% YoY to | 6803 crore during the quarter driven by gAbilify exclusivity for Torrent. Note that the US growth has not captured gNexium traction for Cipla and gAbilify for Alembic for want of non-disclosure of specific traction by the respective companies. Companies such as Aurobindo, Cadila and DRL have also registered strong YoY growth whereas Lupin and Sun Pharma were laggards on account of slowdown in product approvals and regulatory issues. The Indian formulations business (ex-Sun Pharma) witnessed growth of ~9% to | 5693 crore. Slow growth in domestic sales can be attributed to withdrawal of bonus offers to distributors and seasonality impact in acute segment. Among companies Ajanta, Alembic and Glenmark beat the trend and witnessed strong growth during the quarter.
Exhibit 4: I-direct healthcare universe revenue trend
23921 24492 24982
26980 27744
15000
20000
25000
30000
Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16
| cr
ore
Revenues
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research; ex-Sun Pharma
Exhibit 5: I-direct healthcare universe EBITDA trend
5159 5243 5015
6908 6958
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16
| cr
ore
EBITDA
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research; ex-Sun Pharma
Exhibit 6: I-direct healthcare universe profits trend
3142 3090 3088
42804072
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500
Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16
| cr
ore
Profits
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research; ex-Sun Pharma
Exhibit 7: Trends in EBITDA & PAT margin of I-direct healthcare universe
21.6 21.4
25.6 25.1
13.1 12.615.1 15.4
20.1
12.4
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16
%
EBITDA Margins (%) PAT Margins (%)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research; ex-Sun Pharma
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 9
Exhibit 8: Deviation from estimates/Change in outlook post Q2FY16 numbers [5
Company Initial Rating Current RatingDeviation from
estimates RemarksAjanta Pharma BUY BUY Above Higher-than-expected Export Sales
Apollo Hospitals HOLD HOLD Inline
Aurobindo Pharma BUY BUY Inline Alembic Pharma BUY BUY Above Windfall gain from gAbilify exclusivity launchBiocon HOLD HOLD Inline
Cadila Healthcare BUY BUY Inline
Cipla HOLD BUY Below lower-than-expected gNexium sales in the US and flat growth in domestic formulations
Divi's labs HOLD BUY Above Revenue and EBITDA margins were in-line; beat in net profit growth due to higher-than-expected other income.
Dr Reddy's Labs BUY BUY Above Revenue was in-line; Beat on profitability due to strong gross margin and Lower SG&A expenses
Glenmark Pharma HOLD BUY Above Higher than expected growth across geographies (except LatAm); Better Gross profit margins accounted for better Operational performance
Indoco Remedies BUY BUY Inline
Ipca labs HOLD HOLD Below Miss vis-à-vis our expectations was mainly due to lower-than-expected institutional sales
Jubilant Life Sciences HOLD HOLD Inline
Lupin BUY BUY Below Revenue was in-line; margins were impacted mainly due to higher than expected employee cost and other expenditure
Natco Pharma BUY HOLD Below Miss vis-à-vis our expectation on account of lower-than- expected export sales due to absence of Venezuelan tender sales and slow growth in Brazil
Sun Pharma HOLD HOLD Inline
Torrent Pharma BUY BUY Below Lower than expected gAbilify growth
Unichem Labs HOLD BUY Below Revenue in-line; miss in profitability vis-à-vis our expectations was mainly due to adverse product mix and higher employee cost
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 10
Exhibit 9: Patent litigations in last 12 months [5
Month Innovator ANDA Filer Brand Name API Used for Oct-14 Novartis Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Gleevec Imatinib LeukemiaOct-14 Braintree Laboratory Inc. Taro Pharma Suprep Sodium Sulphate Bowel PreparationOct-14 Cephalon Inc. Wockhardt Treanda Bendamustine LeukemiaNov-14 Biomarin Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Kuvan Sapropterin Dihydrochloride phenylketonuriaNov-14 Otsuka Pharma Cadila Healthcare Abilify Aripiprazole CNSNov-14 Otsuka Pharma Alembic Pharma Abilify Aripiprazole CNS
Jan-15 iCeutica Lupin Ltd. Zorvolex Diclofenac Anti-Inflammatory
Jan-15 Senju Pharma Lupin Ltd. Prolensa Bromfenac Eye Inflammation
Jan-15 Sheonogi & Co. Aurobindo Pharma Doribax Doripenem Infection
Jan-15 Teva Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Copaxone Glatiramer Multiple Sclerosis
Feb-15 Roxane Laboratories Lupin Ltd. Roxane Calcium Acetate CCalcium Acetate Serum phosphorous Reduction
Feb-15 Cephalon Inc. Glenmark Generics Treanda Bendamustine Leukemia
Feb-15 Cephalon Inc. Dr. Reddy's Labs Treanda Bendamustine Leukemia
Mar-15 Otsuka Pharma Indoco Remedies Abilify Aripiprazole CNS
Apr-15 Sanofi Aventis Dr. Reddy's Labs Jevtana KIT Cabazitaxel Prostate Cancer
Apr-15 Sanofi Aventis Glenmark Jevtana KIT Cabazitaxel Prostate Cancer
Apr-15 Medicis Pharma Taro Pharma Zyclara Imiquimod Actinic Keratoses
Apr-15 Alcon Research Wockhardt Patanol Olopatadine hydrochloride Allergic Conjunctivitis
Apr-15 Janssen Products LP Cipla Prezista Darunavir Anti-Retroviral
Apr-15 Teva Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Copaxone Glatiramer Multiple Sclerosis
Apr-15 Eli Lilly Lupin Effient Prasugrel CVS
Apr-15 Horizon Pharma Lupin Pennsaid Diclofenac Osteoporosis
May-15 Apotex Inc. Lupin Paxil CR Paroxitine Hydrochloride Anti-Anxiety
May-15 Galderma Labs Glenmark Epiduo Adapalene; Benzoyl Peroxide Acne
May-15 Horizon Pharma Dr. Reddy's Labs Vimovo Esmoprazole Magnesium; Naproxen Osteoporosis
May-15 Merz Pharma Taro Pharma Naftin Naftifine Hydrochloride Fungal Infection
May-15 Takeda Zydus Pharma Daliresp Roflumilast CVS
May-15 Takeda Strides Daliresp Roflumilast CVS
May-15 Acorda Therapeutics Inc. Sun Pharma Ampyra Dalframpridine Multiple Sclerosis
May-15 Merck Lupin Safyral Drospiranone; Ethinyl Estradiol; Levomefolate CaBirth Control
May-15 Kowa Lupin Livalo Pitavastatin Calcium High Cholestrol
Jun-15 Millenium Pharmaceuticals Dr. Reddy's Labs Valcade Bortezomib Anti-Cancer
Jun-15 Millenium Pharmaceuticals Sun Pharma Valcade Bortezomib Anti-Cancer
Jun-15 Reckitt Benckiser LLC Dr. Reddy's Labs Mucinex Guaifenesin; Pseudoephedrine HCl Bronchial Conjestion
Jul-15 Eli Lilly Lupin Axiron Hypogonadism Testosterone
Jul-15 Fresenius Medical Gavis Pharma Phoslo Calcium Acetate Kidney Disease
Jul-15 Alcon Research Lupin TravatanZ Travoprost Ophthalmic solution Elevated Intraocular pressure
Aug-15 Allergan Lupin Namenda Memantine Hydrochoride Alzheimer's Disease
Aug-15 Galderma Labs Taro Pharma Epiduo Adapalene & Benzoyl peroxide Acne
Sep-15 Jazz Pharma Lupin Xyrem Sodium Oxybate Narcolepsy
Sep-15 Gilead Sciences Inc. Lupin Tamiflu Oseltamivir Influenza
Sep-15 Horizon Pharma Lupin Pennsaid Diclofenac Osteoarthritis
Sep-15 Bayer Pharma Alembic Pharma Staxyn Vardenafil Hydrochloride Sex Stimulant
Oct-15 Merck Lupin Beyaz Drospirenone Birth control
Oct-15 Salix Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Taro Pharma Moviprep Polyethylene glycol electrolyte soln Gastro Intestinal
Oct-15 Takeda Pharma Aurobindo Prevacid lansoprazole Stomach ulcers
Oct-15 Janssen Pharma Aurobindo Xarelto Rivaroxaban Blood Thinner
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 11
IPM grows 21.8% in October… • The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) registered robust growth of
21.8% YoY to | 8601 crore for October. Growth was mainly driven by volume growth – 13.2% (albeit on lower base), price hikes – 5.5% and new product launches – 3.2%
• Drugs under NLEM list witnessed growth of 15.4% YoY to | 1072 crore while non-NLEM drugs posted growth of 22.9% to | 7157 crore. Volume growth in NLEM and non-NLEM was 13.4% and 11.7%, respectively
• Among our covered companies, Glenmark registered highest growth of 43.6% YoY followed by Alembic, Unichem, Ipca, Lupin and Cadila registering growth of 31.4%, 26.6%, 25.8%, 22.2% and 22.1% respectively
• Therapy wise, eight therapies have outpaced IPM growth. Notable among them with growth rates- anti-diabetic – 29.8%, dermatology – 23.2%, gastro intestinal 22.4%, anti-infective – 22.1%, respiratory – 21.8% and CVS – 21.1%
• In all, 223 new brands were launched in October 2015 • On a MAT basis, IPM growth was at 14.7% YoY to | 94495 crore • Domestic companies have grown 21.4% while MNC companies have
grown 23.5% in October 2015 Exhibit 10: Domestic formulations - growth trend
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
12.8
18.4
12.5
20
12.7
9.6
21.8
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug
-15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market[
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 11: Companies growth in domestic market in October, 2015
19.8 17.6 16.021.0
9.9
50.4
26.625.4
19.1 22.2 25.823.9
43.6
21.0 22.5
10.0
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
Woc
khar
dt
Unic
hem
Torre
nt
Sun
Phar
ma
Pfize
r
Nov
artis
Lupi
n
Ipca
Lab
s
Indo
co
GSK
Phar
ma
Glen
mar
k
Dr. R
eddy
s
Cipl
a
Cadi
la
Bioc
on
Ajan
ta
(%)
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Therapy wise performance (| crore) Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 MoM (%)Anti-Infectives 1434 1174 22.1 1436 -0.2Cardiac 1024 845 21.1 1016 0.8Gastro Intestinal 964 787 22.4 994 -3.0Vitamins 752 640 17.5 759 -0.9Anti Diabetic 682 526 29.8 671 1.7Respiratory 708 581 21.8 663 6.8Pain 606 501 21.1 611 -0.8CNS 513 421 21.7 515 -0.4Derma 511 415 23.2 507 0.7Gynaecological 402 342 17.6 421 -4.5Vaccines 149 109 37.0 149 0.4Hormones 148 122 21.4 147 0.4Anti-Neoplastics 124 113 9.8 126 -1.6Ophthal 118 104 13.4 119 -0.5Blood Related 97 78 24.9 103 -5.0Urology 90 75 19.5 92 -2.4Others 97 66 47.3 96 1.2Anti Malarials 77 64 20.7 80 -3.8Sex Stimulants 43 35 23.1 41 4.9Stomatologicals 33 29 14.0 34 -1.1 Source: AIOCD data base
Top brands in Indian pharma market Brand Company Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Gr. (%)Augmentin GSK Anti-Infectives 328.3 276.3 18.8Corex Pfizer Respiratory 270.3 221.0 22.3Becosules Pfizer Vitamins 253.9 238.3 6.5Spasmo Prox Wockhardt GI 251.8 151.3 66.4Lantus Sanofi Anti Diabetic 244.0 192.7 26.6Clavam Alkem Anti-Infectives 222.8 222.1 0.3Galvus Met Novartis Anti Diabetic 222.7 165.6 34.5Volini Sun Pharma Pain 202.5 219.1 -7.6Shelcal Torrent Vitamins 195.1 111.0 75.7Skinlite Cadila Derma 192.6 158.8 21.3
Source: AIOCD data base; Date as per MAT Oct15 & Oct 14 Industry acute to chronic therapy ratio percentage…
Acute, 45522.9,
48.2%
Chronic, 29645.9,
31.4%
Sub-Chronic, 19326.4,
20.5%
Source: AIOCD data base ; As per AIOCD MAT Oct 2015
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 12
Sun Pharmaceuticals
Stock Performance
507090
110130150
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Sun Pharma
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 12: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5
15.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
5.6
12.7
15.8
11.1
10.7
14.4
18.4
15.8
23.0
17.1
11.1 11.8
17.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 13: Market share in Indian formulations market
8.89.2 9.0 9.2
8.48.7 8.9
9.3 9.3 9.18.5 8.5 8.5
6.0
6.6
7.2
7.8
8.4
9.0
9.6
10.2
10.8
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research * Included Ranbaxy’s sales
Exhibit 14: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Volini Pain 19.7 17.3 13.9 18.2 8.3
Rosuvas Cardiac 13.6 10.2 33.8 12.8 5.8
Gemer Anti Diabetic 13.0 10.4 24.7 12.6 3.1
Istamet Anti Diabetic 12.6 9.1 38.6 12.5 1.0
Levipil Neuro 12.5 9.5 31.8 12.3 2.3
Susten Gynaecological 11.8 9.5 25.1 11.7 1.5
Pantocid Gastro Intestinal 11.6 10.1 15.5 11.6 0.3
Pantocid Dsr Gastro Intestinal 10.2 8.2 25.0 10.0 1.7
Revital H Vitamins 10.1 0.0 NA 8.7 16.1
Aztor Cardiac 9.7 8.0 22.4 9.1 6.6
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 15: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15) z
Neuro 26%
Cardiac26%Gastro Intestinal
18%
Anti-Infectives17%
Anti Diabetic13%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 16: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Neuro 129.0 110.3 16.9 128.5 0.4
Cardiac 126.2 106.3 18.8 122.2 3.3
Gastro Intestinal 84.8 70.8 19.8 88.5 -4.2
Anti-Infectives 93.1 74.6 24.7 97.6 -4.7
Anti Diabetic 63.9 51.2 24.7 62.6 2.0
Pain 53.3 44.8 19.0 50.6 5.3
Derma 33.6 27.2 23.4 34.9 -3.7
Vitamins 32.3 32.3 0.1 31.1 4.1
Gynaecological 27.4 22.8 20.2 27.6 -1.0
Respiratory 27.5 24.0 14.8 25.3 8.6
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 3429.03,
40.9%
Chronic, 3830.49,
45.7%
Sub-Chronic, 1119.92,
13.4%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
17%
9%
7%
9%58%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 13
Cipla
Stock Performance
6080
100120140
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Cipla
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 17: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
10.3
8.3
13.6
13.3
24.1
24.8
25.4
15.9
16.7
11.6
11.0
4.6
21.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Cipla
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 18: Market share in Indian formulations market
5.04.8
5.05.1
5.2
5.1
5.3
4.8
4.6 4.7
4.85.0 5.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Cipla
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 19: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Foracort Respiratory 17.1 13.9 23.5 15.9 7.9
Budecort Respiratory 13.5 10.3 30.3 13.4 1.0
Asthalin Respiratory 11.7 11.4 3.0 10.9 7.3
Seroflo Respiratory 11.2 10.1 10.6 11.2 -0.7
Duolin Respiratory 10.4 9.0 15.2 10.2 1.9
Azee Anti-Infectives 9.1 7.1 28.8 9.4 -3.4
Aerocort Respiratory 8.3 8.3 0.3 8.2 1.3
Novamox Anti-Infectives 7.8 6.6 18.4 7.1 8.9
Advent Anti-Infectives 7.1 4.9 44.3 6.6 7.3
Montair Lc Respiratory 7.1 5.3 32.9 6.7 5.5
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 20: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Respiratory30%
Anti-Infectives26%
Cardiac12%
Gastro Intestinal8%
Urology5%
Other19%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 21: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)Respiratory 128.5 108.2 18.7 124.2 3.4Anti-Infect ives 122.8 97.6 25.8 121.6 1.0
Cardiac 46.4 42.3 9.8 47.8 -2.9Gastro Intestinal 32.1 24.6 30.2 33.1 -3.1
Urology 18.8 15.5 20.9 20.2 -6.9Neuro 14.0 11.3 23.4 15.3 -8.6
Pain 14.4 10.5 37.1 15.4 -6.5
Derma 10.7 8.5 26.3 11.5 -7.0
Ophthal 9.4 7.9 18.2 10.1 -6.6
Vitamins 6.8 6.1 11.7 7.5 -9.0
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct ’15)
Acute, 2167.88,
46.3%
Chronic, 1944.44,
41.5%
Sub-Chronic, 572.84, 12.2%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
24%
12%
9%12%
43%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 14
Dr Reddy’s Laboratories
Stock Performance
60
80
100
120
140
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15CNX Pharma Dr. Reddys
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 22: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1 12
.8 15.3
14.0 19
.9 21.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
10.5
18.6 23
.0
22.3 24
.2
34.4
35.0
22.9
32.2
27.0
14.9
7.6
21.0
-10
20
50
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Dr. Reddys Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 23: Market share in Indian formulations market
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.2 2.22.3
2.5
2.3 2.32.32.3
2.3
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Dr. Reddys Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 24: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Omez Gastro Intestinal 10.5 7.0 49.8 10.8 -3.0
Omez D Gastro Intestinal 8.5 5.9 44.7 8.4 0.4
Stamlo Cardiac 5.5 4.1 36.3 5.6 -0.9
Mintop Derma 5.4 3.9 39.3 3.8 43.7
Nise Pain 5.2 5.7 -10.0 5.9 -12.8
Razo D Gastro Intestinal 5.1 3.4 52.3 6.2 -17.6
Econorm Gastro Intestinal 4.9 3.3 49.5 5.7 -15.1
Clamp Anti-Infectives 4.4 3.4 29.1 4.5 -2.3
Razo Gastro Intestinal 4.0 3.3 18.4 4.0 -1.6
Atarax Respiratory 3.8 3.7 1.8 4.0 -6.3
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 25: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Gastro Intestinal23%
Cardiac15%
Anti-Neoplastics
10%Respiratory9%
Anti-Infectives8%
Other35%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 26: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Gastro Intestinal 42.7 31.1 37.6 45.5 -6.0
Cardiac 27.2 22.4 21.4 30.0 -9.2
Anti-Neoplastics 15.5 15.8 -1.6 17.1 -9.2
Respiratory 17.7 15.5 14.2 17.2 2.8
Anti-Infectives 16.2 13.8 17.8 16.9 -4.0
Pain 12.8 12.0 6.9 14.0 -8.6
Anti Diabetic 12.3 10.1 21.4 13.2 -6.5
Derma 13.6 10.4 31.6 11.7 17.1
Urology 7.5 5.8 29.7 7.7 -2.4
Stomatologicals 5.9 5.2 13.4 6.2 -5.3
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 1083.42,
50.0%
Chronic, 657.23, 30.3%
Sub-Chronic, 425.40, 19.6%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
30%
17%
9%12%
32%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 15
Lupin
Stock Performance
6080
100120140
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Lupin
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 27: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
9.6
10.5 13
.6
18.1
14.9
22.8
19.1
16.1 18
.5
25.1
21.2
12.4
22.2
12.8
21.8
-4
12
28
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Lupin
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 28: Market share in Indian formulations market
3.3 3.4 3.4 3.43.2
3.0
3.63.8 3.8 3.7
3.4 3.4 3.4
2.32.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.9
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Lupin
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 29: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Gluconorm-G Anti Diabetic 11.9 9.3 27.2 11.7 1.3
Budamate Respiratory 8.5 5.3 60.5 7.4 15.1
Tonact Cardiac 8.0 7.6 5.9 8.1 -0.3
Esiflo Respiratory 4.7 3.6 29.2 4.1 15.1
Rablet-D Gastro Intestinal 4.4 3.8 18.1 4.5 -1.7
Rablet Gastro Intestinal 4.3 3.5 22.6 4.5 -4.1
Ramistar Cardiac 4.3 3.8 12.8 4.2 2.9
Tazar Anti-Infectives 4.2 3.3 26.3 4.1 2.6
R-Cinex Anti-Infectives 4.1 3.9 4.7 4.4 -6.9
L-Cin Anti-Infectives 3.9 3.1 27.0 4.2 -6.6
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 30: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Cardiac25%
Anti-Infectives22%
Respiratory12%
Anti Diabetic11%
Gastro Intestinal8%
Other22%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 31: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Cardiac 69.9 57.5 21.6 69.3 1.0
Anti-Infectives 65.3 56.9 14.7 68.2 -4.2
Respiratory 37.3 27.8 34.2 33.8 10.1
Anti Diabetic 30.6 24.2 26.1 30.3 0.8
Gastro Intestinal 22.6 18.2 24.3 23.5 -3.8
Vitamins 15.7 14.1 11.7 17.1 -8.4
Neuro 13.8 12.7 8.0 14.1 -2.7
Pain 12.4 10.5 18.2 12.9 -3.6
Gynaecological 9.6 6.0 60.9 10.5 -8.2
Ophthal 1.7 1.5 19.0 1.7 -0.7
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 1024.44,
31.3%
Chronic, 1586.36,
48.5%Sub-
Chronic, 662.00, 20.2%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
20%
11%
9%13%
47%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 16
Cadila Healthcare
Stock Performance
60
80
100
120
140
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Cadila Healthcare
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 32: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5
15.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
1.4
8.1
12.7
7.0 7.3
11.3 13
.1
9.6
13.2
11.5
10.6 12
.9
22.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Cadila Healthcare
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 33: Market share in Indian formulations market
3.7
4.0
3.93.9
3.83.8
3.9
3.83.8
3.73.8
3.73.8
3.63.63.73.73.83.83.93.94.04.0
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Cadila Healthcare
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 34: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Skinlite Derma 12.8 13.9 -7.9 14.0 -8.5
Atorva Cardiac 11.5 9.2 24.2 10.4 10.9
Deriphyllin Respiratory 9.5 6.6 45.1 8.5 11.5
Mifegest Kit Gynaecological 9.0 6.5 39.2 11.8 -23.3
Pantodac Gastro Intestinal 8.5 8.0 6.5 8.0 6.9
Falcigo Anti Malarials 8.1 7.1 13.9 9.8 -17.4
Amlodac Cardiac 5.8 5.0 17.1 6.0 -2.5
Clopitorva Cardiac 5.6 3.4 66.1 5.9 -6.2
Ocid Gastro Intestinal 5.5 2.9 87.8 5.4 1.7
Dexona Hormones 5.4 3.0 78.6 5.6 -4.1
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 35: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Cardiac19%
Gastro Intestinal14%
Gynaecological12%
Respiratory10%
Derma9%
Other36%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 36: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Cardiac 58.6 48.0 22.2 58.5 0.3
Gastro Intestinal 45.3 38.3 18.3 45.0 0.6
Gynaecological 34.4 30.3 13.7 36.1 -4.6
Respiratory 35.3 26.8 32.0 34.0 3.9
Derma 24.7 22.3 11.1 25.3 -2.2
Pain 23.9 20.5 16.2 24.5 -2.6
Anti-Infectives 25.8 18.1 42.2 24.7 4.3
Vitamins 14.0 11.1 26.1 13.3 5.7
Anti-Neoplastics 13.4 9.4 41.7 12.3 8.3
Anti Malarials 10.3 9.0 14.7 12.5 -17.7
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 1556.52,
43.2%
Chronic, 1306.86,
36.2%Sub-
Chronic, 743.12, 20.6%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
27%
13%
8%11%
41%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 17
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals
Stock Performance
6080
100120140
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma GSK Pharma
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 37: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
12.1
5.5
0.8
2.6 6.
6 10.8 12
.9
0.7 2.1
-1.7
-0.3
2.6
23.9
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 38: Market share in Indian formulations market
3.4 3.43.4
3.3 3.3
3.43.4
3.2 3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 39: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Augmentin Anti-Infectives 27.7 29.1 -4.9 28.0 -0.9
Calpol Pain 19.9 13.1 52.2 19.6 1.9
Rotarix Vaccines 17.5 6.6 166.4 16.5 6.1
Synflorix Vaccines 17.3 12.3 40.3 16.3 5.8
Zinetac Gastro Intestinal 15.4 12.1 26.8 12.1 27.1
Betnovate C Derma 14.0 8.3 69.4 12.8 9.4
Betnovate N Derma 13.6 8.3 63.8 11.6 16.9
Betnesol Hormones 12.4 7.4 67.5 10.6 17.1
Eltroxin Hormones 11.3 9.8 14.5 10.7 5.8
Ceftum Anti-Infectives 11.3 10.0 12.6 11.7 -3.5
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 40: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Anti-Infectives24%
Derma21%Vaccines
12%
Pain 9%
Hormones8%
Other26%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 41: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Anti-Infectives 70.8 65.9 7.5 68.8 3.0
Derma 53.5 48.0 11.6 52.1 2.8
Vaccines 45.9 24.1 90.6 43.1 6.5
Pain 30.7 21.3 44.4 30.4 1.2
Hormones 24.8 17.9 38.2 22.3 10.9
Vitamins 21.2 16.4 29.7 21.5 -1.2
Gastro Intestinal 17.4 14.6 18.9 14.4 20.8
Respiratory 17.5 14.4 21.4 16.3 7.8
Cardiac 5.7 6.7 -15.2 6.2 -7.5
Ophthal 3.6 4.3 -18.2 2.1 67.2
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 2031.87,
64.8%
Chronic, 427.35, 13.6%
Sub-Chronic, 675.67, 21.6%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
51%
15%
9%
10%
15%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 18
Wockhardt
Stock Performance
050
100150200250300350400
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Wockhardt
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 42: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1 12
.8 15.3
14.0 19
.9 21.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
5.1
19.9 22
.2
-2.2
-4.6
31.9
44.8
29.1 36
.0
29.2
24.4
42.2
50.4
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Wockhardt
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 43: Market share in Indian formulations market
1.161.10
1.16
1.37
1.47
1.40
1.281.25
1.28
1.38 1.361.401.43
1.01.11.11.21.21.31.31.41.41.51.5
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Wockhardt
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 44: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Spasmo Proxyvon PluGastro Intestinal 28.8 13.3 117.0 31.1 -7.3
Practin Vitamins 6.0 4.8 26.3 5.6 6.6
Biovac V Vaccines 5.9 0.0 NA 5.3 11.5
Tryptomer Neuro 5.4 3.4 58.9 5.2 4.2
Bro Zedex Respiratory 5.3 4.3 24.1 4.5 16.6
Methycobal Vitamins 4.0 3.3 22.7 3.9 4.3
Zedex Respiratory 4.0 3.4 15.4 3.0 32.9
Biovac A Vaccines 3.9 2.7 44.6 5.1 -22.5
Ace Proxyvon Pain 3.2 2.6 24.6 3.1 3.7
Aziwok Anti-Infectives 2.4 2.0 18.2 1.9 26.9
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 45: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15) Gastro Intestinal
23%
Vitamins 15%
Respiratory13%Vaccines
9%
Neuro 7%
Other33%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 46: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Gastro Intestinal 30.9 14.5 113.0 33.1 -6.6
Vitamins 16.8 13.7 23.1 16.3 3.2
Respiratory 15.8 13.0 21.6 13.4 18.3
Vaccines 9.8 2.7 258.1 10.4 -5.4
Neuro 8.9 6.3 41.5 8.6 3.5
Derma 8.3 8.6 -3.4 8.0 3.8
Anti-Infectives 9.7 6.5 50.2 10.0 -2.8
Pain 7.7 5.4 43.6 7.6 2.0
Anti Diabetic 7.1 5.2 36.5 6.4 10.8
Hormones 2.9 2.3 27.2 2.5 16.5
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 884.84, 70.6%
Chronic, 233.33, 18.6%
Sub-Chronic, 134.71, 10.8%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
55%
15%
8%
8%14%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 19
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Stock Performance
6080
100120140160180200
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15CNX Pharma Glenmark
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 47: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
2.7
20.4
21.6
21.4 24
.2 28.2 30
.3
29.9 34
.6
30.9
28.0
13.1
43.6
05
101520253035404550
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 48: Market share in Indian formulations market
2.1
2.4 2.42.4
2.3 2.3 2.32.2
2.32.4 2.4
2.42.5
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 49: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Telma Cardiac 14.6 10.5 38.8 14.5 0.6
Telma H Cardiac 11.4 9.1 25.9 11.6 -1.5
Ascoril Plus Respiratory 10.8 7.3 47.1 9.0 19.2
Candid-B Derma 8.8 7.1 24.6 8.1 8.6
Candid Derma 8.7 5.3 65.6 7.7 12.8
Zitamet Anti Diabetic 6.5 4.6 40.1 7.6 -15.3
Telma Am Cardiac 6.0 4.2 41.8 6.3 -4.8
Ascoril Ls Respiratory 5.5 3.3 67.5 4.1 32.8
Zita(Glenmark) Anti Diabetic 4.5 3.2 41.0 5.2 -13.4
Onabet Derma 3.3 2.0 70.3 3.4 -1.4
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 50: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Derma29%
Cardiac22%
Respiratory15%
Anti-Infectives14%
Anti Diabetic9%
Other11%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 51: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Derma 61.6 45.2 36.4 59.3 4.0
Cardiac 43.8 32.9 33.1 44.5 -1.6
Respiratory 36.8 23.4 57.1 31.1 18.1
Anti-Infectives 31.9 20.9 52.4 30.7 3.9
Anti Diabetic 19.3 11.7 64.1 20.6 -6.6
Vitamins 5.5 3.3 67.8 5.7 -3.1
Gastro Intestinal 4.6 3.5 32.7 5.0 -7.7
Pain 4.3 3.1 38.7 4.3 -0.7
Gynaecological 3.4 2.7 23.9 3.5 -5.5
Otologicals 3.5 3.3 5.6 3.6 -3.5
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 896.60, 40.2%
Chronic, 835.19, 37.4%
Sub-Chronic, 499.36, 22.4%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
38%
13%10%
11%
28%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 20
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Stock Performance
80100120140160180200
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Torrent Pharma
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 52: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
6.0
23.2
30.7
21.1
30.9
30.5
28.8
27.4
28.3
18.3 21
.7
16.0 19
.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 53: Market share in Indian formulations market
2.232.30
2.422.35
2.402.32
2.432.49 2.51
2.37
2.272.25
2.19
2.0
2.4
2.8
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 54: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Shelcal Vitamins 14.7 10.7 37.7 16.6 -11.1
Chymoral Forte Pain 8.5 7.0 20.8 8.8 -3.0
Nikoran Cardiac 7.0 5.9 20.0 7.3 -3.7
Dilzem Cardiac 5.5 4.8 14.4 5.3 4.1
Nebicard Cardiac 5.2 4.1 26.5 4.9 5.7
Azulix-Mf Anti Diabetic 4.7 3.7 29.1 4.7 1.1
Nexpro Rd Gastro Intestinal 4.5 4.1 10.4 4.4 3.5
Nexpro Gastro Intestinal 4.2 3.6 15.2 4.2 -0.6
Shelcal Ct Vitamins 3.4 2.1 62.6 3.4 -2.0
Alprax Neuro 3.1 2.9 10.3 3.3 -4.1
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 55: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Cardiac29%
Neuro 16%
Vitamins 15%
Gastro Intestinal15%
Pain 8%
Other17%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 56: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Cardiac 54.9 46.1 19.0 55.6 -1.3
Neuro 30.2 26.0 16.1 30.7 -1.6
Vitamins 28.6 19.5 46.4 30.4 -6.0
Gastro Intestinal 27.8 25.2 10.1 29.0 -4.3
Pain 14.0 10.7 31.1 14.5 -3.4
Anti Diabetic 11.2 9.0 23.4 11.5 -3.3
Anti-Infectives 9.3 11.5 -19.5 9.4 -1.6
Derma 5.2 3.5 48.2 5.0 4.5
Gynaecological 3.3 3.1 6.4 3.5 -7.5
Urology 0.8 0.7 23.1 0.8 -2.3
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct‘ 15)
Acute, 568.81, 25.6%
Chronic, 1114.58,
50.1% Sub-Chronic, 541.60, 24.3%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
33%
13%
9%
12%
33%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 21
Ipca Laboratories
Stock Performance
6080
100120140
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Ipca
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 57: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1 12
.8 15.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
9.2 13
.0
12.9
28.6
35.9
14.5
-0.1
3.0
3.6-5.5
-5.8
12.2
25.8
-10-505
10152025303540
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Ipca Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 58: Market share in Indian formulations market
1.41.3
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.31.3
1.5 1.4
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Ipca Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 59: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Larinate Anti Malarials 9.1 5.2 73.5 7.8 16.5
Zerodol Sp Pain 7.6 5.2 45.9 7.9 -3.5
Zerodol P Pain 6.8 4.6 47.1 8.8 -21.9
Rapither-Ab Anti Malarials 6.3 4.8 33.2 5.0 25.6
Hcqs Anti Malarials 5.2 4.4 18.3 5.3 -2.5
Lariago Anti Malarials 4.9 4.2 16.6 5.6 -13.3
Lumerax Anti Malarials 3.3 2.9 13.4 3.6 -6.8
Glycinorm M Anti Diabetic 3.1 2.5 23.6 3.1 0.2
Zerodol Pain 2.6 2.1 23.2 2.6 0.0
Folitrax Anti-Neoplastics 2.6 2.4 10.3 2.7 -2.6
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 60: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Pain 24%
Anti Malarials20%
Cardiac17%
Gastro Intestinal8%
Anti-Infectives7%
Other24%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 61: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Pain 29.3 21.9 33.6 31.6 -7.4
Anti Malarials 34.8 26.0 33.5 33.4 4.0
Cardiac 18.3 14.7 24.8 18.0 1.5
Gastro Intestinal 9.2 7.4 23.5 9.5 -3.3
Anti-Infectives 7.0 6.7 4.2 7.4 -5.9
Anti Diabetic 5.8 4.8 21.3 5.6 2.9
Respiratory 5.0 4.4 12.7 4.8 2.1
Anti-Neoplastics 4.0 3.1 29.9 4.3 -7.6
Neuro 3.4 3.0 14.5 3.5 -2.0
Derma 3.6 3.3 8.5 3.3 8.7
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 818.91, 66.9%
Chronic, 333.47, 27.2%
Sub-Chronic,
72.07, 5.9%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
36%
15%11%
13%
25%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 22
Biocon
Stock Performance
60
80
100
120
140
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15CNX Pharma Biocon
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 62: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.8
9.6
21.8
9.8
1.0
12.7
7.2
18.8
17.5
11.6 11.7
3.7 4.8 6.
0 7.3
-11.
2
10.0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25Oc
t-14
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Biocon
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 63: Market share in Indian formulations market
0.370.36 0.36
0.38
0.350.36
0.330.34
0.36
0.34 0.33 0.33
0.32
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.37
0.39
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Biocon
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 64: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Insugen Anti Diabetic 7.8 6.4 22.1 7.3 7.0
Basalog Anti Diabetic 4.2 3.4 22.3 4.6 -10.3
Blisto Mf Anti Diabetic 1.6 1.7 -6.9 1.5 9.9
Erypro Blood Related 1.5 0.8 91.0 1.4 11.1
Canmab Anti-Neoplastics 1.4 1.0 44.1 1.0 41.4
Insugen R Anti Diabetic 1.4 1.1 28.8 1.4 -3.3
Abraxane Anti-Neoplastics 1.2 2.7 -53.9 1.4 -11.0
Abstet Anti-Neoplastics 0.8 0.2 262.7 0.2 262.7
Insugen N Anti Diabetic 0.8 0.6 18.9 0.7 4.0
Biomab Egfr Anti-Neoplastics 0.7 1.3 -46.8 0.8 -10.8
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 65: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Anti Diabetic60%
Anti-Neoplastics
20%
Cardiac7%
Blood Related5%
Derma3%
Other 5%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 66: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Anti Diabetic 17.0 14.7 15.6 16.8 1.4
Anti-Neoplastics 6.1 7.0 -12.7 5.4 13.8
Cardiac 1.5 1.9 -21.3 1.5 2.8
Blood Related 1.6 0.8 95.3 1.4 12.6
Derma 0.7 0.6 10.8 0.7 6.4
Anti-Infectives 0.8 0.5 55.3 0.6 45.2
Others 0.2 0.2 28.4 0.2 33.8
Vitamins 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.2 -8.2
Gastro Intestinal 0.5 0.1 634.9 0.4 22.2
Hormones 0.0 0.1 -93.2 0.0 -85.8
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 66.47, 20.3%
Chronic, 236.46, 72.4%
Sub-Chronic,
23.84, 7.3%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
74%11%
6%
6%
3%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 23
Pfizer
Stock Performance
80110140170200230
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Pfizer
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 67: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1 12
.8 15.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
11.2
35.3
25.4
26.4
23.0
18.2
18.8
11.8
20.3
17.3 19
.7
9.9
25.4
-10-505
10152025303540
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Pfizer
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 68: Market share in Indian formulations market
2.89
3.08
3.253.33
3.042.98 3.00
2.882.94 2.98 2.96 2.932.97
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Pfizer
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 69: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Corex Respiratory 31.6 18.7 68.9 27.7 14.1
Becosules Vitamins 18.5 18.7 -0.9 20.5 -9.8
Magnex Anti-Infectives 13.7 9.9 38.0 12.9 5.9
Gelusil Mps Gastro Intestinal 11.4 9.5 19.9 11.5 -0.8
Dolonex Pain 10.9 9.5 15.5 10.3 6.3
Minipress Xl Cardiac 10.6 11.2 -5.6 11.3 -6.5
Wysolone Hormones 9.9 7.7 27.7 10.7 -8.0
Mucaine Gastro Intestinal 9.6 6.3 51.6 8.8 9.6
Folvite Blood Related 7.0 4.6 53.2 7.1 -1.6
Solu Medrol Hormones 6.9 5.5 24.6 6.4 6.9
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 70: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Anti-Infectives17%
Respiratory12%
Vitamins 11%
Gastro Intestinal11%Hormones
9%
Other40%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 71: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Anti-Infectives 44.5 34.0 31.0 42.6 4.3
Respiratory 38.9 24.6 57.7 33.6 15.8
Vitamins 23.7 22.7 4.2 26.1 -9.1
Gastro Intestinal 25.7 19.9 28.9 25.2 1.9
Hormones 24.2 20.1 20.7 24.5 -1.2
Gynaecological 20.1 14.3 40.2 19.8 1.4
Cardiac 15.7 17.5 -10.2 16.6 -5.0
Neuro 16.9 11.8 43.1 17.4 -2.5
Pain 16.8 14.1 19.5 15.6 7.7
Vaccines 6.6 5.5 20.8 6.6 0.9
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 1836.20,
64.3%
Chronic, 444.91, 15.6%
Sub-Chronic, 576.74, 20.2%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
49%
19%
10%
10%
12%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base l
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 24
Novartis India
Stock Performance
80
130
180
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Novartis India
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 72: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
5.8
5.1 6.
7
1.1
2.6 5.
9
0.0
2.7
9.3
16.0
9.7
19.1
14.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Novartis India
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 73: Market share in Indian formulations market
1.41
1.32
1.381.34
1.26 1.25 1.24 1.241.28
1.351.33 1.34
1.38
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Novartis India
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 74: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Galvus Met Anti Diabetic 24.3 15.8 53.9 23.2 4.7
Voveran Pain 17.1 13.6 25.7 16.4 4.3
Galvus Anti Diabetic 10.6 8.4 27.1 10.4 2.6
Rabipur (Novartis) Vaccines 7.7 6.5 17.7 6.8 12.7
Otrivin Respiratory 5.4 5.6 -4.2 5.9 -8.8
Tegrital Neuro 4.7 4.4 6.3 4.2 10.0
Regestrone Gynaecological 3.8 4.0 -5.3 3.8 1.9
Voveran Pain 3.3 2.5 35.0 3.3 1.9
Afinitor Anti-Neoplastics 3.3 0.7 399.5 2.9 11.5
Genteal Ophthal 2.6 2.2 16.5 2.6 -3.7
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 75: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Anti Diabetic28%
Pain 19%
Respiratory10%
Vitamins 10%
Gynaecological8%
Other25%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 76: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Anti Diabetic 35.5 24.6 44.7 34.3 3.7
Pain 23.6 19.3 22.5 22.9 3.4
Respiratory 9.4 12.9 -27.4 10.3 -9.4
Vitamins 11.6 10.2 13.6 11.1 4.6
Gynaecological 8.7 8.8 -1.5 9.3 -6.6
Vaccines 7.8 6.6 18.2 6.9 12.9
Neuro 7.5 7.6 -1.2 6.9 8.4
Anti-Infectives 5.8 4.3 36.3 4.8 21.4
Ophthal 3.3 2.8 18.4 3.7 -10.2
Cardiac 1.4 1.2 15.2 1.2 13.9
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 593.92, 48.0%
Chronic, 464.34, 37.5%
Sub-Chronic, 179.16, 14.5%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
69%
14%
6%6%5%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 25
Unichem Laboratories
Stock Performance
70100130160
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Unichem Labs
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 77: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
2.9
3.8
6.6
13.6 16
.7
12.9
12.4
20.5
2.7 11
.1
0.6
-15.
9
26.6
-20-15-10-505
1015202530
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Unichem Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 78: Market share in Indian formulations market
0.85
0.95 0.930.98
0.940.97
0.94
1.000.97
0.880.880.89
0.87
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Unichem Laboratories
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 79: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Ampoxin Anti-Infectives 7.3 6.0 21.3 7.5 -2.1
Losar H Cardiac 6.5 5.1 27.9 6.5 0.8
Losar Cardiac 5.6 4.4 25.3 5.4 3.5
Unienzyme Gastro Intestinal 5.0 4.1 21.5 4.8 4.5
Vizylac Gastro Intestinal 2.3 2.0 15.6 2.9 -19.7
Trika Neuro 2.2 2.0 12.8 2.2 0.5
Serta Neuro 1.8 1.4 22.0 1.7 3.9
Unistar (Unichem) Cardiac 1.5 1.2 25.5 1.5 5.3
Telsar Cardiac 1.5 1.3 17.2 1.4 6.9
Telsar-H Cardiac 1.2 1.0 11.7 1.2 1.3
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 80: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Cardiac41%
Anti-Infectives18%
Gastro Intestinal13%
Neuro 13%
Pain 4% Other
11%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 81: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Cardiac 30.5 24.5 24.3 29.7 2.8
Anti-Infectives 15.1 11.7 29.0 15.3 -1.4
Gastro Intestinal 8.9 7.3 22.5 9.0 -1.6
Neuro 9.7 7.4 29.8 9.4 2.3
Pain 3.3 2.2 47.1 3.0 7.5
Anti Diabetic 2.4 2.0 20.5 2.3 3.9
Vitamins 2.0 1.4 35.9 1.9 5.2
Respiratory 2.0 1.9 7.7 2.0 2.3
Derma 1.5 1.1 40.9 1.6 -6.8
Gynaecological 0.4 0.4 4.3 0.4 5.5
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 328.72, 37.4%
Chronic, 498.33, 56.6%
Sub-Chronic,
52.68, 6.0%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
49%
12%
9%
11%
19%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 26
Indoco Remedies
Stock Performance
6080
100120140
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Indoco
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 82: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
6.1
4.8
8.6
8.9
18.9 22
.0
2.4
16.0
2.6
1.2 3.
4
-1.5
-6.7
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Indoco Remedies
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 83: Market share in Indian formulations market
0.8
0.7 0.70.7
0.8
0.7
0.7 0.70.7
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indoco Remedies
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 84: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Febrex Plus Respiratory 7.2 6.3 14.0 6.2 14.5
Oxipod Anti-Infectives 4.5 2.8 58.1 3.9 15.2
Cyclopam Gastro Intestinal 3.4 3.3 5.4 3.6 -4.1
Atm Anti-Infectives 3.3 2.7 22.6 2.8 15.6
Cital Urology 2.9 2.4 21.8 2.7 7.4
Sensodent-K Stomatologicals 2.8 2.9 -3.6 2.6 4.1
Karvol Plus Respiratory 2.3 1.7 37.1 1.8 27.1
Sensodent-Kf Stomatologicals 2.2 1.5 42.8 1.7 32.8
Cloben G Derma 2.0 1.7 16.2 1.9 2.6
Vepan Anti-Infectives 1.7 1.4 17.7 1.6 5.2
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 85: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15) Respiratory
19%
Stomatologicals17%
Anti-Infectives17%Gastro Intestinal
14%
Vitamins 6%
Other27%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 86: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Respiratory 13.5 11.6 16.4 11.7 14.9
Stomatologicals 9.4 8.3 13.8 8.9 6.2
Anti-Infectives 13.5 10.1 34.0 12.4 8.9
Gastro Intestinal 7.5 7.1 5.0 7.9 -4.9
Vitamins 3.6 3.0 21.9 3.5 2.8
Urology 3.2 2.6 25.1 3.1 5.3
Pain 2.5 2.5 1.4 2.5 0.0
Derma 2.7 2.3 18.2 2.6 1.5
Ophthal 2.0 1.9 3.4 1.9 2.2
Anti Diabetic 1.9 2.0 -3.6 1.8 8.8
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 548.92, 81.7%
Chronic, 42.34, 6.3%
Sub-Chronic, 80.71, 12.0%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
47%
17%
8%
10%
18%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 27
Ajanta Pharma
Stock Performance
80
130
180230
280
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Ajanta
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 87: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
23.2
19.9
14.6
9.5
33.1
16.2
15.4
10.4
10.9
10.0
18.3
12.6
9.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Oc
t-14
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Ajanta Pharma
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 88: Market share in Indian formulations market
0.50
0.53
0.51 0.510.51
0.480.46
0.49 0.48 0.480.49
0.470.45
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Ajanta Pharma
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 89: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)Met Xl Cardiac 3.9 4.1 -6.3 4.0 -2.6
Melacare Derma 3.1 3.5 -12.0 2.8 9.5
Atorfit Cv Cardiac 3.0 2.6 18.4 2.8 6.5
Feburic Pain 1.2 1.0 25.7 1.1 7.6
Rosufit Cv Cardiac 1.2 0.9 39.9 1.1 7.7
Soft Drops Ophthal 1.2 0.9 29.7 1.4 -17.9
Met Xl Am Cardiac 0.9 0.9 3.8 0.9 0.0
Cinod Cardiac 0.7 0.5 42.9 0.7 1.0
Peroclin Derma 0.7 0.8 -16.8 0.9 -24.9
Rosutor Gold Cardiac 0.7 0.2 264.9 0.7 -0.2
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 90: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Cardiac33%
Derma23%
Ophthal23%
Vitamins 6%
Pain 5%
Others10%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 91: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%) Sep'15 QoQ (%)
Cardiac 13.5 11.6 16.7 13.4 0.6
Derma 8.3 8.8 -5.6 8.3 -0.7
Ophthal 8.2 7.5 9.2 9.2 -10.7
Vitamins 2.5 2.1 21.0 2.7 -6.1
Pain 2.1 1.8 12.5 2.1 -1.0
Gastro Intestinal 1.1 1.2 -7.3 1.1 6.5
Neuro 0.9 0.8 8.7 0.9 0.3
Ophthal 0.6 0.6 2.5 0.6 -9.2
Anti-Infectives 0.7 0.3 94.3 0.7 -6.7
Respiratory 0.3 0.4 -33.7 0.3 -5.0
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 187.33, 40.8%
Chronic, 220.88, 48.1%
Sub-Chronic, 50.77, 11.1%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
43%
13%9%
13%
22%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 28
Alembic Pharma
Stock Performance
80100120140160180200
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
CNX Pharma Alembic Pharma
Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 92: Company growth vis-à-vis Indian pharma market growth
8.1
12.8 15
.3
14.0
19.9 21
.7
18.4
12.5 15
.3
12.7
12.8
9.6
21.8
5.3
9.3 11
.4
6.6
15.2
19.4
19.1 19
.7
18.1
17.0
21.2
6.0
31.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Oc
t-14
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Indian Pharma Market Alembic Pharma
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 93: Market share in Indian formulations market
1.351.38 1.36
1.33
1.42
1.35
1.301.27 1.27
1.33
1.421.44 1.45
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
Oct-1
4
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-1
5
(%)
Alembic Pharma
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 94: Top 10 brands performance (| crore) Brand Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 Var. (%) Sep'15 Var. (%)
Azithral Anti-Infectives 13.2 10.9 21.0 12.6 5.2
Althrocin Anti-Infectives 7.4 9.7 -23.3 9.0 -17.3
Roxid Anti-Infectives 5.4 4.5 19.0 5.8 -6.5
Gestofit Gynaecological 4.2 2.8 51.6 4.2 -0.8
Wikoryl Respiratory 3.8 3.7 1.4 3.3 14.2
Ulgel Gastro Intestinal 3.4 2.3 48.4 3.6 -6.1
Rekool D Gastro Intestinal 2.7 2.0 35.4 2.8 -0.4
Zeet Respiratory 2.6 2.0 25.5 2.4 7.5
Rekool L Gastro Intestinal 2.2 1.7 28.4 2.3 -5.8
Rekool Gastro Intestinal 2.1 1.6 30.9 2.1 0.8
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 95: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
Anti-Infectives26%
Gastro Intestinal14%
Respiratory13%
Cardiac13%
Gynaecological10%
Other24%
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 96: Therapy wise performance (| crore)
Anti-Infectives 31.7 29.9 6.1 32.9 -3.5Gastro Intestinal 17.2 13.0 32.8 17.7 -2.4Respiratory 17.9 13.8 30.2 16.0 11.8Cardiac 15.9 9.4 69.9 15.6 1.8Gynaecological 12.5 7.8 59.9 12.2 2.7Vitamins 7.4 5.7 31.1 7.0 5.4Anti Diabetic 6.8 4.5 53.5 6.9 -1.4Pain 4.5 3.3 37.0 4.7 -3.1Derma 2.5 1.2 101.5 2.8 -11.1Urology 2.6 2.1 28.0 2.3 12.3
Sep'15 QoQ (%)Therapy Oct'15 Oct'14 YoY (%)
Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research
Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Oct’15)
Acute, 789.83, 61.5%
Chronic, 265.72, 20.7%
Sub-Chronic, 229.20, 17.8%
Source: AIOCD data base
Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Oct’15)
40%
13%9%
12%
26%
Top 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 50 Others
Source: AIOCD data base
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 29
Exhibit 97: One year forward P/E of CNX Pharma vs. Sensex
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mar
-06
Oct-0
6
May
-07
Dec-
07
Jul-0
8
Feb-
09
Sep-
09
Apr-1
0
Nov
-10
Jun-
11
Jan-
12
Aug-
12
Mar
-13
Oct-1
3
May
-14
Dec-
14
x
CNX Pharma Sensex [
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Healthcare) Company I-Direct CMP TP Rating M Cap
Code (|) (|) (| Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E
Ajanta Pharma AJAPHA 1336 1900 Buy 11724.4 32.5 27.7 21.2 41.1 48.3 62.9 50.3 46.4 41.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 26.9 44.3 49.0
Apollo Hospitals APOHOS 1280 1340 Hold 17755.8 23.7 29.1 35.0 52.4 44.0 36.6 26.3 22.1 17.9 9.9 11.6 13.1 10.4 11.6 12.5
Aurobindo Pharma AURPHA 820 990 Buy 47774.2 28.1 31.9 37.7 27.9 24.8 20.0 30.7 26.2 21.8 23.4 24.9 26.8 31.7 27.5 25.0
Alembic Pharma ALEMPHA 659.3 790 Buy 12396.3 15.1 39.9 28.4 43.6 16.5 23.2 32.1 13.0 18.2 30.8 55.9 32.6 32.2 53.0 29.8
Biocon BIOCON 446 470 Hold 8867.7 20.4 25.3 27.1 21.8 17.6 16.4 6.5 5.7 4.8 10.4 12.4 13.2 12.5 13.5 13.1
Cadila Healthcare CADHEA 396.8 510 Buy 40515.6 56.0 14.1 18.5 7.1 28.1 21.5 6.3 20.8 16.9 20.7 25.3 28.0 27.0 27.1 28.1Cipla CIPLA 626 750 Buy 50126.6 14.7 22.3 28.2 45.9 30.2 23.9 25.4 18.8 15.2 13.8 15.9 18.1 10.9 14.6 16.0
Divi's Laboratories DIVLAB 1127 1180 Hold 29835.9 64.2 79.1 98.2 17.6 14.3 11.5 1.8 1.3 0.8 29.4 30.1 31.2 24.4 24.9 25.2
Dr Reddy's Labs DRREDD 3509 4080 Buy 59706.0 129.0 164.0 190.8 32.4 25.5 22.0 20.5 15.8 13.4 18.8 21.1 21.5 22.3 22.1 20.5
Glenmark Pharma GLEPHA 964.4 1140 Buy 27139.8 23.1 35.6 46.0 59.6 32.9 21.3 25.0 17.5 13.8 13.3 19.8 22.9 21.7 26.5 25.9
Indoco Remedies INDREM 300 400 Buy 2760.9 9.0 11.0 17.3 35.9 29.4 18.7 18.2 15.4 11.3 18.2 18.5 23.9 16.0 17.1 22.3
Ipca Laboratories IPCLAB 725.8 700 Hold 9135.5 20.2 15.1 31.1 37.2 49.6 24.1 19.4 25.0 15.2 11.5 6.9 12.8 11.4 8.2 14.7
Jubilant Life Sciences VAMORG 410 335 Hold 6516.6 -3.6 29.0 40.6 -113.1 14.2 10.1 NA 14.7 10.5 -0.4 16.0 18.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lupin LUPIN 1809 2200 Buy 81242.5 53.6 55.7 75.4 33.8 32.5 24.0 28.6 22.6 21.8 35.7 35.1 24.4 26.5 27.1 22.9
Natco Pharma NATPHA 2456 2550 Hold 8551.0 43.5 40.8 56.3 62.7 60.3 43.7 41.6 33.7 27.3 15.4 17.6 19.7 17.9 14.7 17.3
Sun Pharma SUNPHA 738.7 825 Hold 177302.5 19.8 19.3 26.0 48.3 55.4 34.9 27.4 27.1 20.8 18.8 17.8 20.8 18.6 15.9 18.2
Torrent Pharma TORPHA 1530 1800 Buy 25824.1 44.4 100.8 70.7 35.4 15.2 22.2 27.9 10.9 15.6 20.1 40.1 23.9 30.2 46.0 25.9
Unichem Laboratories UNILAB 271.4 330 Buy 2458.5 8.3 12.8 18.1 35.1 22.8 16.1 25.7 14.8 11.1 8.5 15.2 18.9 8.7 12.2 15.4
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 30
RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Add, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Sector view: Over weight compared to index Equal weight compared to index Under weight compared to index Index here refers to BSE 500
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Page 31
ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Siddhant Khandekar CA-INTER Mitesh Shah MS (Finance) Nandan Kamat MBA Finance, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
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We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. 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