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Risk-modeling in Asset ManagementMaintenance Strategies
Rui Jorge AlmeidaBISS InstituteTowards Future Proof Asset ManagementSystems
Asset Management
• Asset management is a systematic approach of developing,operating, maintaining, upgrading, and disposing of assets
• Objective of providing the best value level of service for thecosts involved;
• Optimization of costs, risks, service/performance andsustainability.
• In Finance, models are backbone of asset management:• models are used in investment, portfolio management, risk
management, and finance functions.
Asset Management
• Asset management is a systematic approach of developing,operating, maintaining, upgrading, and disposing of assets
• Objective of providing the best value level of service for thecosts involved;
• Optimization of costs, risks, service/performance andsustainability.
• In Finance, models are backbone of asset management:• models are used in investment, portfolio management, risk
management, and finance functions.
Maintenance
• Maintenance is defined as a set of activities or tasks used torestore an item to a state in which it can perform itsdesignated functions.
• Downtime reduces production, increases operating costs andinterferes with customer services.
• Nowadays, effects of downtime are being aggravated by themove towards just-in-time systems.
• Small, unmanaged breakdowns, can potentially stop a wholeplant.
Maintenance
• Maintenance is defined as a set of activities or tasks used torestore an item to a state in which it can perform itsdesignated functions.
• Downtime reduces production, increases operating costs andinterferes with customer services.
• Nowadays, effects of downtime are being aggravated by themove towards just-in-time systems.
• Small, unmanaged breakdowns, can potentially stop a wholeplant.
Maintenance
• Maintenance is defined as a set of activities or tasks used torestore an item to a state in which it can perform itsdesignated functions.
• Downtime reduces production, increases operating costs andinterferes with customer services.
• Nowadays, effects of downtime are being aggravated by themove towards just-in-time systems.
• Small, unmanaged breakdowns, can potentially stop a wholeplant.
Maintenance Strategies
Source: [Cooke, 2003, Arunraj and Maiti, 2007]
Maintenance Strategies
Source: [Cooke, 2003, Arunraj and Maiti, 2007]
Maintenance Strategies
Source: [Cooke, 2003, Arunraj and Maiti, 2007]
Maintenance Strategies
Source: [Cooke, 2003, Arunraj and Maiti, 2007]
Maintenance Strategies
Source: [Cooke, 2003, Arunraj and Maiti, 2007]
Risk - Definition
• The risk for an asset i at time t , combines the failureprobability Pi in any instant tf ≤ t and consequence losses Li
Ri(t) = Pi(tf ≤ t)Li
Risk - Definition
• The risk for an asset i at time t , combines the failureprobability Pi in any instant tf ≤ t and consequence losses Li
Ri(t) = Pi(tf ≤ t)Li
• The probability of failure is related to the age of the asset:
Risk - Definition
• The risk for an asset i at time t , combines the failureprobability Pi in any instant tf ≤ t and consequence losses Li
Ri(t) = Pi(tf ≤ t)Li
• The consequence losses should take into account differentfactors:
• Repair costs;
• Downtime costs and slowdown costs (production loss);
• Safety hazards and possible accidents.
Risk-Based Maintenance
• Risk-based maintenance (RBM) is used for determining thepriority of maintenance using risk which integrates both safetyand failure,
• find the critical/problem assets and dedicate your maintenanceresources to them while diverting resources from noncriticalassets.
• In offshore steel structures, the application of RBM translatedin savings over 80% on total repair costs! [Lei et al., 2015]
Risk-Based Maintenance
• Risk-based maintenance (RBM) is used for determining thepriority of maintenance using risk which integrates both safetyand failure,
• find the critical/problem assets and dedicate your maintenanceresources to them while diverting resources from noncriticalassets.
• In offshore steel structures, the application of RBM translatedin savings over 80% on total repair costs! [Lei et al., 2015]
Risk-Based Approach
Source: [Arunraj and Maiti, 2010]
Risk-Assessment
Risk Maintenance Planning
Choosing the Correct Maintenance
Source: [Bertolini and Bevilacqua, 2006]
Application: Power-generating unit
• Focus in a power-generating unit in an operating steam powerplant [Krishnasamy et al., 2005].
• A steam power plant is a means for converting the potentialchemical energy of fuel into electrical energy.
• In its simplest form, it consists of a boiler and a turbine drivingan electrical generator.
Application: Methodology
Application: Unit 3 scope
Application: Risk assessment
• Fault tree analysis
Application: Risk and rank analysis
• The risk index is the actual risk divided by the acceptable risk(historically $2,000,000).
Application: Risk and rank analysis
• The risk index is the actual risk divided by the acceptable risk(historically $2,000,000).
Application: Risk analysis subsystems
... ... ... ... ...
Application: Risk reduction results
• Preventive maintenance: Model based approach to reducerisk.
Risk-modeling in asset management
Thank you for listening
Looking forward to discuss this topic on
11 June
Risk-modeling in asset management
Thank you for listening
Looking forward to discuss this topic on
11 June
References I
Arunraj, N. and Maiti, J. (2007).Risk-based maintenance-techniques and applications.Journal of hazardous materials, 142(3):653–661.
Arunraj, N. and Maiti, J. (2010).Risk-based maintenance policy selection using ahp and goal programming.Safety science, 48(2):238–247.
Bertolini, M. and Bevilacqua, M. (2006).A combined goal programming-ahp approach to maintenance selectionproblem.Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 91(7):839–848.
References IICooke, F. L. (2003).Plant maintenance strategy: evidence from four british manufacturing firms.Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering.
Krishnasamy, L., Khan, F., and Haddara, M. (2005).Development of a risk-based maintenance (rbm) strategy for apower-generating plant.Journal of Loss Prevention in the process industries, 18(2):69–81.
Lei, X., Sandborn, P., Bakhshi, R., Kashani-Pour, A., and Goudarzi, N.(2015).Phm based predictive maintenance optimization for offshore wind farms.In 2015 IEEE Conference on Prognostics and Health Management (PHM),pages 1–8. IEEE.
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