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Research ArticleStatistical Design of an Adaptive Synthetic ๐ Control Chart withRun Rule on Service and Management Operation
Shucheng Yu,1 Qiang Wan,2 Zhenghong Wei,3 and Tianbo Tang1
1School of Management, Shanghai University, Shang Da Road 99, Shanghai 200444, China2School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China3School of Mathematic and Statistic, Shenzhen University, Nanhai Ave. 3688, Shenzhen 518060, China
Correspondence should be addressed to Qiang Wan; w77happy@163.com
Received 18 August 2016; Accepted 16 October 2016
Academic Editor: Xinchang Wang
Copyright ยฉ 2016 Shucheng Yu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License,which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
An improved synthetic๐ control chart based onhybrid adaptive scheme and run rule scheme is introduced to enhance the statisticalperformance of traditional synthetic๐ control chart on service andmanagement operation.The proposed scientific hybrid adaptiveschemes consider both variable sampling interval and variable sample size scheme.Theproperties of the proposed chart are obtainedusing Markov chain approach. An extensive set of numerical results is presented to test the effectiveness of the proposed modelin detecting small and moderate shifts in the process mean. The results show that the proposed chart is quicker than the standardsynthetic๐ chart and CUSUM chart in detecting small and moderate shifts in the process of service and management operation.
1. Introduction
Since control chart was introduced by Walter A. Shewhart in1924, it has been treated as an important tool to detect theprocess shifts that may occur in services and managementsoperation process. In todayโs service andmanagement opera-tion practice, processes have obtained a low level of noncon-formities or defects as a result of technological advancementand automation. Although the traditional Shewhart chartshave the advantage of easy setup, they also have the highfalse alarm rates and inability to detect further processimprovement under a low-defect environment [1].
To deal with this situation, different types of controlcharts have been proposed to obtain good performancefor effective detection with a wide range of shift sizes,such as cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart, synthetic ๐ chart,and time-between-events (TBE) chart. Among them, thesynthetic๐ chart which was introduced byWu and Spedding(2000) outperformed the traditional ๐ chart in terms ofsmaller average run length under the small shift in processmean. It is the combination of Shewhart ๐ chart andconforming run length (CRL) chart used to detect shifts in theprocess mean.The difference between Shewhart๐ charts and
synthetic ๐ charts is that the synthetic ๐ charts do not sendan alarm instantlywhen a sample falls outside of the limits butinspect the number of the samples taken since the last timethat a point fell outside the limits, or since the first sampleif there have been no previous points outside the limits. Ifthat number of samples is sufficiently small, then a signalis triggered. The synthetic ๐ chart provides a significantlybetter detection power than Shewhart๐ chart for all levels ofmean shifts [2]. Numerous studies and extensions have beenperformed on the synthetic chart. Among the more recentones are Chen et al. [3], Zhang et al. [4], Yen et al. [5], andZhen [6].
On the other hand, to enhance further detection of thepower of control charts for better process control, the adap-tive control charts in which at least one of input parameters(the sampling interval, the sample size, and the control limits)is allowed to be changed based on the current state of theprocess are proposed. Some common adaptive control chartsare often concerned in SPC studies, such as the variablesample size (VSS) control charts (see [7โ10]), the variablesampling interval (VSI) control charts (see [11, 12]), and thevariable sample size and sampling interval (VSSI) controlcharts (see [7, 8, 13, 14]). It is found that totally adaptive
Hindawi Publishing CorporationScientific ProgrammingVolume 2016, Article ID 9629170, 7 pageshttp://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/9629170
2 Scientific Programming
control charts have been shown to detect the process changefaster than the corresponding standard Shewhart chart [15].Qu and Meng [16], Qu et al. [17], Zhen [18], and Zhen [19]used the fundamental diagrams for extreme-scenario analysison transportation. Among these different types of adaptivecharts, the VSSI ๐ chart is even quicker than the VSI or VSS๐ charts in detecting moderate shifts in the process [20].
Some researchers tried to combine together the standardsynthetic ๐ chart with adaptive schemes. Khoo et al. [21]proposed a synthetic double sampling chart that integratedthe double sampling (DS) ๐ chart and CRL chart andthey concluded that the synthetic DS chart is superior tothe synthetic or even the DS ๐ chart. Chen and Huang[22] considered the variable sampling interval scheme asan enhancement to their proposed synthetic chart in orderto further improve the chartโs performance. Lee and Lim[23] proposed a VSSI-CRL synthetic control chart and theyconcluded that it has better detection power than the CRLsynthetic chart or the VSSI chart in general. Costa and Rahim[24] considered the synthetic chart based on the statistic ๐ tomonitor both the mean and variance. They found that theirproposed chart always detected process disturbances fasterthan the joint ๐ and ๐ charts. Machado et al. [25] proposeda synthetic control chart based on two sample variancesfor monitoring the covariance matrix. The proposed chartwas thought to be more efficient than the chart based onthe generalized variance |๐|. In this work, the schemes thatconsider both variable sampling interval and variable samplesize combined with run rules are applied to the standardsynthetic๐ chart for obtaining better detection capacity.
In this paper, an adaptive synthetic ๐ chart with a jointsampling strategy combining variable sampling interval andvariable sample size is developed. A redefined running rulescheme is adopted to further improve the performance ofthe control chart. Compared with the work of Lee and Lim(2005), different running rules are embedded in the proposedsynthetic chart. In our model, the chart sends an alarm notonly when the conforming run length is sufficiently smallbut also when the measuring index outsides the controllimits. Undoubtedly the detection capability is enhanced, butthe problem becomes even more complicated. In this work,we present a Markov chain model and use it to evaluatethe zero-state and steady-state average time to signal (ATS)performance of the proposed chart. The numerical resultsshow that the proposed chart has achieved better detectionpower than the traditional synthetic ๐ chart and CUSUMchart in detecting small and moderate shifts in the process.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows: in the nextSection, the formulation of the proposed chart is developed;then the design model is presented. In Section 3, the geneticalgorithm is used to solve the statistical designmodel; and theobtained results are reported and discussed. Finally Section 4concludes the paper.
2. Description of the Developed Chart
Assuming that the production process starts in in-control(healthy) state, with the in-controlmean๐0 and the in-control
standard deviation ๐0, the one key quality characteristic ๐is assumed to follow an identical and independent normaldistribution ๐(๐0, ๐20). When process shift occurs, the mean๐ will change: that is, ๐ = ๐0 + ๐ฟ๐0 (๐ฟ โฅ 0), where ๐ฟ is themagnitude of the process shift. Since quality shifts are notdirectly observable yet undesirable, the process is monitoredby a control chart. At each sampling instance, a sample istaken and the sample statistic,๐, is computed and plotted onthe control chart. Then the control chart gives an indicationfor the actual process condition. In this work, an adaptivesynthetic๐ chart is proposed to monitor the process and twoalternative combinations of the control chart parameters areconsidered: a relaxed one and a tightened one. The relaxedscheme uses sampling interval โ๐ฟ, sample size ๐๐, while therespective parameter values for the tightened scheme are โ๐,๐๐ฟ, where โ๐ฟ > โ๐ > 0, ๐๐ฟ > ๐๐ > 0.
If we set ๐ as the lower limit of the CRL subchart andset the constant ๐1 > ๐2 > 0 as the parameters of the ๐subchart, then the lower control limit, upper control limit,and the warning control limit of the adaptive synthetic๐ aregiven by
UCL = ๐0 + ๐1๐๐,UWL = ๐0 + ๐2๐๐,LCL = ๐0 โ ๐1๐๐,LWL = ๐0 โ ๐2๐๐,
(1)
where ๐๐is the in-control standard deviation of the sample
mean.By referring to the graphical view of the chart in Figure 1,
the operation of the proposed chart is as follows:
(1) Set the control limits of the charts.(2) A sample is taken and its mean (๐) is measured at
each inspection instance.(3) If a sample produces a value between in the central
region, that is, (UWL, LWL), the process is in control.The relaxed scheme used for next sampling is (๐๐, โ๐ฟ).
(4) If the sample mean lies outside the limits, that is,(UCL, +โ) or (โโ, LCL), the control chart gives asignal. The process is declared as out-of-control andan investigation and possible restoration take place.
(5) If the sample mean falls in the warning region, thatis, (UWL,UCL) or (LCL, LWL), then the CRL ischecked. In thiswork, CRL is defined as the number ofsamples since the most recent previous sample meanfell in the warning region or since sampling began ifno point fell in the warning region. It is obvious thatCRL is a larger-the-better characteristic.
(a) If CRL is larger than the lower control limit๐, where ๐ is a specified positive integer, theprocess is still considered as in-control, but thetightened sampling scheme (๐๐ฟ, โ๐) is used innext sampling.
Scientific Programming 3
Out-of-control
Out-of-control
UCL
UWL
LWL
LCLConforming unitNonconforming unit
CRL subchart
Warning region (nL, hS)
Central region (nS, hL)
Warning region (nL, hS)t = 0
CRL1 CRL2 CRL3
X subchart
Figure 1: The adaptive synthetic๐-bar chart.
(b) If CRL is smaller than the lower control limit๐,then the process is signaled out-of-control, andan investigation and possible restoration takeplace. After that the control flow goes back toStep (2) and the relaxed sampling plan is used.
It is worth noting that as ๐ increases, the adaptivesynthetic ๐ control chart behaves more and more like anordinary VSSI ๐ chart. The most important performancemetrics of control charts are average run length (ARL) andaverage time to signal (ATS) in a long-run process [26]. ARLis commonly studied under two cases in literatures: one whenprocess is in control (denoted by ARL0) and the other whenthe process is out-of-control (denoted by ARL1). Usually,the ARL0 of the chart is preferred to be long to avoid highfrequency of false alarms and ARL1 to be short to reduce thenumber of produced nonconforming units. ATS is presentedby Tagaras [27], which is defined as the expected value of thetime from the start of the process to the time when the chartindicates an out-of-control signal. Correspondingly, denoteATS0 andATS1 as the average time to signal when the processis in-control and out-of-control, respectively.
2.1. Computation of ARL and ATS of the Proposed Chart.Assuming that a single assignable cause occurs at a randomtime and results in a shift in the process mean of a knownmagnitude ๐ฟ (๐ฟ > 0) so that the out-of-control mean valueis ๐1 = ๐0 + ๐ฟ๐0, the occurrence of the assignable causeindicates that the process has gone out of control.TheMarkovchain approach suggested by Davis and Woodall [28] is usedto compute the in-control and out-of-control average runlengths in the process.
Denote ๐01(๐11) as the probability that a sample falls
beyond the control limits of๐ subchart when the last samplefalls in the central (warning) region. Then the detectingpower, ๐0
1and ๐1
1, of๐ subchart can be calculated as
๐01= 1 โ ฮฆ (๐1 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐) + ฮฆ (โ๐1 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐) ,๐11= 1 โ ฮฆ (๐1 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐ฟ) + ฮฆ (โ๐1 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐ฟ) , (2)
where ฮฆ(โ ) is the cumulative distribution function of astandard normal distribution function.
Denote ๐02(๐12) as the probability that a sample falls in
warning region of ๐ subchart when the last sample falls inthe central (warning) region. ๐0
2and ๐1
2are given by๐0
2= ฮฆ (๐1 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐) โ ฮฆ (๐2 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐)+ ฮฆ (โ๐2 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐) โ ฮฆ (โ๐1 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐) ,๐12= ฮฆ (๐1 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐ฟ) โ ฮฆ (๐2 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐ฟ)+ ฮฆ (โ๐2 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐ฟ) โ ฮฆ (โ๐1 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐ฟ) .
(3)
Denote ๐03(๐13) as the probability that a sample falls in
central region of๐ subchart when the last sample falls in thecentral (warning) region. ๐0
3and ๐1
3can be calculated as๐0
3= ฮฆ (๐2 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐) โ ฮฆ (โ๐2 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐) ,๐13= ฮฆ (๐2 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐ฟ) โ ฮฆ (โ๐2 โ ๐ฟโ๐๐ฟ) . (4)
A Markov chain {๐(๐), ๐ โฅ 1} is constructed, where ๐(๐)is the number of samples which fall in the central regionbetween the ๐th and the (๐ โ 1)th sample which falls in thewarning region of the ๐ subchart. Then the state spaces of{๐(๐), ๐ โฅ 1} are {0, 1, 2, . . . , ๐ โ 1,๐, ๐}, where state ๐represents that the control chart sends out out-of-controlsignal. Therefore, we can model the adaptive synthetic ๐chart using a {๐ + 2,๐ + 2} transition probability matrix ๐having the following structure:
๐ =((((((((((((
0 ๐13
0 โ โ โ โ โ โ 0 ๐12+ ๐110 0 ๐0
3โ โ โ โ โ โ 0 ๐0
2+ ๐01... d d
... ...... d ๐03
0 ...0 โ โ โ โ โ โ โ โ โ 0 ๐03
๐02+ ๐01๐0
20 โ โ โ โ โ โ 0 ๐0
3๐010 โ โ โ โ โ โ โ โ โ โ โ โ 0 1
))))))))))))
= (๐ ๐0๐ 1) ,
(5)
4 Scientific Programming
where 0 = (0, 0, . . . , 0)๐ and ๐ is the (๐ + 1,๐ + 1)matrix oftransient probabilities.The (๐+ 1, 1) vector ๐ = 1โ๐ โ 1 (i.e.,the row probabilities must sum to 1) with 1 = (1, 1, . . . , 1)๐.The expected average run length is given by
ARL1 = ๐๐ (๐ผ โ ๐)โ1 1, (6)
where ๐ is a (๐+1, 1) vector of initial probabilities associatedwith the transient states, with 1 for the initial state and 0elsewhere, that is, ๐ = (1, 0, . . . , 0)๐, and ๐ผ is a (๐ + 1,๐ + 1)identity matrix.
The steady-state probability of the process is required dueto the uncertainty of the instantaneous probability of theprocess in each state. ๐ = {๐0, ๐1, . . . , ๐๐} is represented asthe corresponding steady-state probability of the state space.According to theMarkov theory, spreading the above matrix,we obtain the following results:
๐0 = 1 โ ๐031 โ ๐03+ ๐13
,๐๐ = ๐1
3(๐03)๐โ1 (1 โ ๐0
3)1 โ ๐0
3+ ๐13
, ๐ = 1, 2, . . . , ๐ โ 1,๐๐ = ๐1
3(๐03)๐โ11 โ ๐03+ ๐13
.(7)
Then when the magnitude of the process shift is ๐ฟ (โฅ0), the expected average sampling interval ๐ธโ[๐ฟ] and theexpected average sample size ๐ธ๐[๐ฟ] are calculated as๐ธโ [๐ฟ] = ๐0โ๐ + (๐1 + ๐2 + โ โ โ + ๐๐) โ๐ฟ,๐ธ๐ [๐ฟ] = ๐0๐๐ฟ + (๐1 + ๐2 + โ โ โ + ๐๐) ๐๐. (8)
The total expected average sample size of the process canbe expressed as๐ธ๐ = ๐๐๐ธ๐ [๐ฟ = 0] + (1 โ ๐๐) ๐ธ๐ [๐ฟ > 0] , (9)
where ๐๐ is the probability of the process in control atarbitrary time.
Theout-of-control average run length,ARL1, is calculatedby substituting ๐ฟ > 0, while the in-control average run length,ARL0, is computed by substituting ๐ฟ = 0. The ATS of theadaptive synthetic๐ chart is given by
ATS = ARL ร ๐ธโ [๐ฟ] . (10)
Similarly, ATS1 is calculated by substituting ๐ฟ > 0, whileATS0 is computed by substituting ๐ฟ = 0.2.2. Design Model. The statistical design of the proposedsynthetic ๐ chart can be conducted using the followingoptimization model:
Objective function is
Min ATS1. (11)
Table 1: The optimal parameters and the values of ATS1.๐ฟ (๐๐, ๐๐ฟ) (โ๐ฟ, โ๐) (๐1, ๐2) ๐ ATS10.1 (12, 14) (6.5031, 3.3638) (7.1368, 1.9826) 9 193.69360.3 (11, 12) (2.5894, 0.6658) (8.1090, 2.1697) 8 25.51540.5 (11, 15) (2.8284, 0.3193) (6.2454, 2.0591) 5 4.81980.6 (12, 14) (2.5849, 0.2366) (7.9035, 2.1941) 9 2.79540.8 (10, 13) (1.3651, 0.1589) (3.9953, 2.2805) 7 0.74491.0 (8, 12) (1.4749, 0.1375) (7.7022, 2.1316) 3 0.29661.5 (12, 14) (5.7517, 0.1009) (6.4527, 2.2539) 23 0.1031
Constraints function is
ATS0 โฅ ๐;โ๐ฟ > โ๐ > 0;๐๐ฟ > ๐๐ > 0;๐1 > ๐2 > 0;๐max โฅ ๐ธ๐ > 0;๐๐, ๐๐ฟ, ๐ โ IN.(12)
Design variable is๐1, ๐2, โ๐ฟ, โ๐, ๐๐ฟ, ๐๐, ๐, (13)
where ๐ and ๐max are, respectively, the allowed minimum in-control average run length to signal and themaximumsamplesize.The value of ๐ is usually decided by the quality assurance(QA) engineer with regard to the false alarm rate.
3. Numerical Analysis
3.1. Optimization Algorithm. The established design modelfor the control chart is a nonlinear programming model withmixed continuous discrete variables, which is too complexto be solved in optimality.Therefore, metaheuristic methods,especially genetic algorithms (GA), were commonly usedto solve the problem. GA has been commonly used for itsadaptiveness and effectiveness. Successful applications of GAin the designs of control charts can be found in Aparisi andGarcฤฑa-Dฤฑaz [29] and He and Grigoryan [30]. In this study,GA toolbox of theUniversity of Sheffield is developed to solvethe optimal statistic designs of the proposed chart.
3.2. The Statistical Performance. In this section, we evaluatethe statistical performances of the proposed chart. Table 1shows the optimal ATS1 of the proposed synthetic ๐ chart;moreover, each row in the table shows the optimal designparameters.
From Table 1, it is found that the value of ATS1 ofthe proposed chart decreases along with an increase in themagnitude of the shift (๐ฟ). A significant change occurs whenthe value of ๐ฟ changes from small to moderate. That is to say,the proposed chart is sensitive to the change of mean shiftwhen the process is out-of-control. On the other hand, whenthe mean shift changes frommoderate to large, the detection
Scientific Programming 5
Table 2: Comparison among the optimal ATS1 corresponding to the two charts.
Optimal value of ATS1 for each caseCases ๐ธ๐ = 3 ๐ธ๐ = 5 ๐ธ๐ = 9๐ฟ Adap-Syn Trad-Syn Adap-Syn Trad-Syn Adap-Syn Trad-Syn0.1 375.3452 847.1256 300.2754 700.4593 255.5710 603.51240.3 115.4521 211.3375 78.0624 144.7012 43.6432 61.68170.5 48.2578 103.8345 28.1089 50.0896 12.1607 16.08630.6 33.7869 67.7789 15.7966 21.2451 4.3920 8.06640.8 10.3149 42.0031 3.6467 10.0180 2.1909 4.78901.0 5.0379 20.1121 2.3129 3.4568 1.1089 1.21431.5 1.5287 4.2857 0.5903 0.6752 0.1151 0.2137Notes: Adap-Syn and Trad-Syn represent the proposed adaptive synthetic๐ chart and the traditional synthetic๐ chart, respectively.
Table 3: Results of the proposed chart and CUSUM chart for comparison.
Optimal value of ATS1 for each caseCases ๐ธ๐ = 3 ๐ธ๐ = 5 ๐ธ๐ = 9๐ฟ Adap-Syn CUSUM Adap-Syn CUSUM Adap-Syn CUSUM0.1 375.3452 415.2016 300.2754 325.4593 255.5710 275.51240.3 115.4521 121.3375 78.0624 85.7012 43.6432 48.68170.5 48.2578 52.8345 28.1089 42.0896 12.1607 13.08630.6 33.7869 38.7789 15.7966 21.2451 4.3920 5.06640.8 10.3149 12.0031 3.6467 4.0180 2.1909 2.08901.0 5.0379 6.1121 2.3129 2.8568 1.1089 0.81431.5 1.5287 2.2857 0.5903 0.6752 0.1151 0.1037
power of the proposed chart is improved slightly, which is inline with the actual situation.
In actual production, 100% sampling is not possible andthe assignable causes are not self-announced; therefore, theaverage sample size, ๐ธ๐, is usually an important matter toQA engineer. In Table 2, we compare the optimal value ofATS1 between the proposed synthetic๐ chart and traditionalsynthetic ๐ chart in three cases (๐ธ๐ = {3, 5, 9}). It isreasonable that the optimal value of ATS1 decreases alongwith an increase in the average sample size (๐ธ๐). At thesame time, it can be noted that the proposed chart generallyachieved shorter ATS1 than the traditional synthetic chart,showing that the variable sample size and sampling intervalscheme is helpful in improving the statistical performance ofthe chart.
3.3. Comparison to CUSUM Chart. In this section, the pro-posed chart is compared with the cumulative sum (CUSUM)chart in terms of the average time to signal when process isout-of-control. Woodall and Adams [31] recommended useof the ARL approximation given by Siegmund for designinga CUSUM chart. For a one-sided CUSUM with parameters ๐and ๐, Siegmund gives
ARL๐ = ๐โ2ฮ๐ + 2ฮ๐ โ 12ฮ2 (14)
for ฮ = 0, where ฮ = (๐1 โ ๐0)/๐ โ ๐ for the upper one-sideCUSUM, and ๐ = ๐ + 1.166. Similarly, ARL๐ฟ can be obtained
for the lower one-sided CUSUM. Then we can achieve theATS1 of a two-sided CUSUM chart as follows:
ATS1 = ARL๐ โ ARL๐ฟARL๐ + ARL๐ฟ
โ โ, (15)
where โ is the sampling interval.Table 3 displays the comparison between the proposed
chart and CUSUM chart, and we can see that the proposedchart always has the shorter ATS1 when the mean shiftis small; see ๐ฟ = 0.1โผ0.6. However, the opposite result isachieved when the mean shift is large enough and simulta-neously the sample size is great; see ๐ฟ = 0.8โผ1.5 and ๐ธ๐ = 9.In other words, the proposed chart is the better choice for QAengineer if the production process is fragile and samples aredifficult to obtain; conversely, the CUSUM chart is superiorto the proposed chart.
A specific example to display the result can be found inFigure 2. We can see that the traditional synthetic ๐ chart isalways theworst of the three toQA engineer.The gap betweenthe three is getting smaller and smaller with the increase of๐ฟ. When the value of ๐ฟ exceeds a certain value, the CUSUMchart is the better choice than the adaptive synthetic๐ chart.The resultsmean that, when themean shift of process is small,the detection power of the proposed chart is always superiorto traditional synthetic chart and theCUSUMchart; however,when the mean shift of process changes from moderate tolarge, CUSUM chart would be the better one.
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0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.60
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Adap-Syn chartTrad-Syn chartCUSUM chart
ATS1
๐ฟ
Figure 2: Comparison among ATS1 corresponding to the threecharts.
4. Conclusion
In this research, adaptive synthetic๐ charts which integratedvariable sample size and sampling interval ๐ charts andCRL charts have been developed to control the state ofstatistical control in service and management operationprocess. The performances of these charts were evaluated bydetermining their optimal statistical design and comparing itwith tradition synthetic ๐ chart and CUSUM chart schemescommonly used in the literature. The optimal design wasobtained by genetic algorithm, which works to determine theminimum ATS1 under the set of selected constraints. Theobtained results show that the proposed charts work betterthan the tradition synthetic ๐ chart for all levels of meanshifts and better than CUSUM chart when small to moderateshifts in the mean of the controlled parameter are expected.
Competing Interests
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interestsregarding the publication of this paper.
Acknowledgments
This research is supported by the (Key) Project ofDepartmentof Education of Guangdong Province (no. 2014KTSCX112).
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