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7/28/2019 Report ON THAILAND DEVELOPING ECONOMY
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University of Dhaka
A Report on
Economy ofThailand
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Date of Submission: o5/06/2013
A Report on
Economy of Thailand
Course no. & name: F-402
Submitted to:
M Masud Rahman
Professor and Chairman
Department of Finance
University of Dhaka
Submitted by:
Group: 13
Sec-B
BBA 16th batch
Dept. of Finance
University of Dhaka
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Group members are
Name Roll
K. M. Najmus Sakib 16-020
Md. Rased Mosarraf 16-62
Md. Kamrul Islam 16-090
Rajib Kumar Deb 16-106
Mahmudur Munna 16-182
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Letter of Transmittal
5th June, 2013
M Masud Rahman
Professor and ChairmanDepartment of FinanceUniversity of Dhaka
Subject: Submission of a report on Economy of Thailand.
Dear Sir,
We are presenting a report on Economy of Thailand. In this report we haveexamined detail study of economic condition of Thailand. In making the study, wehad to take help from the various sources of internet and class lectures of our courseteacher. We acknowledge the contribution of our course teacher heartily. We havetried to use our academic knowledge in real life.
We are pleased to be granted this vital opportunity and grateful for your versatileassistance. We hope that our work will please you. We will be available in the
presentation for further explanations.
Sincerely,
__________________
Md. Rashed Mosarraf
On behalf of The Group
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Executive Summary
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Table of Contents
Title Page No
Letter of Transmittal
Executive Summary
Origin of the report
Thailand Economy Profile
Period 1: 1985-1996
Period 2:1997-2000
Period 3: 2000- Present
Conclusion
Appendix
Bibliography
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Origin of the Report:
Formal report writing is a mandatory requirement of the Finance and Development course
of the BBA program. This report was assigned to give the students a better understanding of
their studied theories and real life application of it.
Objectives
To know Thailand economic condition.
To know monetary and fiscal policy of Thailand.
To know their polices which improve their economic condition.
To know other macro economic variables of Thailand.
To enhance our subject knowledge.
Methodology
To collect data for this report we use secondary information. We get all the information fromWorld Bank and Bank of Thailand websites.
Limitations of the Report:
Research work is very much comprehensive. It is an accumulation of both information and
creative thinking. It requires a great effort and long sound planning to make a report. It is true
that we got help from many highly qualified people. But still we faced some problem. As we
are really new in this field and it is our first report in our life; we felt lack of experience in
every stage of our work. And there was not enough time for this project. But we tried our
level best to overcome this. We tried to present the data available accurately. Still there might
be some problems with the presented data & our interpretation. But all these errors are totally
unintentional. At the end we are very happy to present this report to the readers and its
success will depend on the positive response of the readers.
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Thailands Economy Profile
Economy The Economy of Thailand is a newly industrialized economy. It is aheavily export-dependent economy.
Currency Thai baht ().Fiscal year 1 October-30 September.
GDP THB 11.375 trillion (USD 366 billion).
GDP growth 6.5%. (2012)
GDP per capita THB 167508 (USD 390). (2012)
Inflation (CPI) 3.02%. (2012)
HDI 103rd, 0.682 (medium).
Gini 0.484 (income) (2011) and 0.375 (expenditure) (2011).Labor force 39.41 million. (2012)
Unemployment .7%. (2012)
Population below
poverty line
13.15% (2011).
Main industries Automobiles and Automotive parts (11%), Financial Services (9%),Electric appliances and components (8%), Tourism (6%), cement,auto manufacturing, heavy and light industries, appliances, computersand parts, furniture, plastics, textiles and garments, agricultural
processing, beverages, tobacco.
Export USD 226155.8 million. (2012)
Export goods Textiles and footwear, fishery products, rice, rubber, jewelry,automobiles, computers and electrical appliances.
Main export
partners
China 12%, Japan 10.5%, U.S. 9.6%, Hong Kong 7.2%, Malaysia5.4%, Singapore 5%, Indonesia 4.4%.
Import USD 217, 818.9 million. (2012)
Import goods Capital goods, intermediate goods and raw materials, consumergoods, fuels.
Foreign reserves USD 177.8 billion (29 March 2013).
FDI inflow $9.6 billion.
Revenues THB 1,977.5 billion (Fiscal Year 2012).
Expenses THB 2,148.4 billion (Fiscal Year 2012).Economic aid None.
Source: Economy of Thailand, Wikipedia.
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Period from 1985 - June 1997
Monetary policy:
To reduce market liquidity the Bank of Thailand used open market operations by intervening
in the repurchase market through selling government bonds. The fiscal surpluses implied that
the stock of government bonds was rapidly declining. To resolve that problem the central
bank issued its own bonds in 1987, 1988, 1990 and 1991 and again in 1995 and 1996 to
absorb excess liquidity. From 1987 to the end of 1995, the Bank of Thailand issued a total of
33 billion baht in bonds, only a small fraction of the foreign borrowing by financial
institutions.
Exchange rate policy:
The basket regime was adopted from November 1984 until June 1997. The value of the baht
was initially either pegged to gold, a major currency, or to a basket of currencies. During this
period, the Exchange Equalization Fund (EEF) would announce and defend the value of the
baht against the U.S. dollar daily. Given the environment at the time, a fixed exchange rate
was deemed to be the best monetary policy regime which would support long term economic
growth. Thailand implemented a macro stabilization program during the period 198487. The
program combined a large devaluation of the nominal exchange rate in late 1984 with tighter
financial policies. Its main features were as follows:
1. The Baht was devalued by nearly 15 percent in nominal effective terms and thenpegged against an undisclosed basket that weighted heavily the US Dollar. As the
Dollar lost value vs. the Yen during the second half of the 1980s, the Baht, in turn,
continued to depreciate in nominal terms vs. other East Asian currencies.
2. Monetary policy was tightened significantly starting in 1985. Real credit growth
declined significantly in 1985 and 1986 as compared to the previous three years 5
while real interest rates increased to their highest levels in the 1980s.
3. Fiscal policy, however, was adjusted only with a one-year lag with the adoption of
the1985/86 budget in late 1985. Following a period of large deficits and no clear trendfor the fiscal stance, between 1985/86 and 1987/88 the central governments fiscal
balance went from a deficit of 5.3 percent of GDP to a surplus of 0.7 percent.
GDP growth:
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In 1988 the GDP growth rate was 12%.Then there was economic boom in the country. Over
the ten years between 1987 and 1996, the average annual GDP growth rate was 9.4 percent;
the growth rate of real exports was 14.5 per cent, while inflation was contained at 4.7 per
cent. The high level of investment and the rapid growth had been supported by large inflows
of foreign capital: in the period 198796, annual capital inflows were on average equal to 8.7per cent of GDP.
Unemployment rate:
From 1988 to 1996, there was booming situation in the economy of Thailand. As their
productivity, GDP and FDI were increased, their unemployment rate was decreased.
Foreign direct investment:
Capital inflows started to increase rapidly after 19856, reaching very high levels in the
1990s. Figure 1 shows the pattern: average annual inflows exceeded 10 per cent of GDP in
the period 19906. The sharp rise in capital flowing in through .financial institutions after
1992 was the result of the financial liberalization that took place during the early 1990s.
Financial liberalization started with the lifting of the ceilings on interest rates, which began in
1989 and was completed in 1992 when domestic interest rates were fully free. The
liberalization also opened new lines of business, particularly for finance companies. The most
important part of the reforms was the liberalization of transactions on the current and on the
capital account of the balance of payments and the establishment of offshore banking with the
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Bangkok International Banking Facility (BIBF) in 1993. Between 198896, according to data
from the Bank of Thailand, Thailand received a staggering cumulative amount of US$ 100.3
billion, about 55 percent of 1996 GDP, or 9.4 percent of GDP on average p.a. After
stabilizing at about 8 percent ford in 199294, there was a second local maximum in 1995
when flows again surpassed 12 percent of GDP.
Export and Import:
During this period both export and import increased as a result of financial liberalization I
financial sector
Monetary targeting regime (July 1997 - May 2000):
Exchange
After the adoption of the floating exchange rate system on 2 July 1997, Thailand received
financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While the IMF program, a
monetary targeting regime was adopted. Under this regime, the Bank targeted domestic
money supply using the financial programming approach in order to ensure macroeconomic
consistency as well as to reach the ultimate objectives of sustainable growth and price
stability. The Bank would set the daily and quarterly monetary base targets, on which its
daily liquidity management was based. Daily liquidity management was essentially aimed to
ensure against excessive volatility in interest rates and liquidity in the financial system. Since
2 July 1997, Thailand has adopted a managed-float exchange rate regime, replacing the
basket-peg regime which had been in operation since 1984. The value of the baht has since
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then been largely determined by market forces. The banks primary concern is large and
persistent departures of the exchange rate from its fundamental values, rather than short term
fluctuations
Under the managed float, the Bank of Thailand
Does not target a fixed level for the exchange rate, Short-term volatility is not a major
concern unless it continues to persist and become a threat to stability.
Stands ready to intervene in the case of excess volatility, particularly resulting from
speculative capital flows, in a manner consistent with the Banks inflation targeting
framework.
Exchange rates can overshoot. In this case, intervention may help in limiting the
extent of overshooting, thus avoiding the disruptive impact and the need for costly
real economic adjustment
The Bank of Thailand aims to ensure that the value of the baht is allowed to fluctuate under
the following conditions;
(1) The Bank of Thailand stands ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market
such that volatility of the exchange rate is at a level that the economy can tolerate,
(2) Maintaining national competitiveness, as measured through the Nominal Effective
Exchange Rate (NEER), which comprises currencies of important trading partners -
and not just the US Dollar, and
(3) Any intervention does not go against economic fundamentals which would
otherwise lead to further imbalances.
Monitoring exchange rate developments
Certain qualitative indicators are also monitored so as to analyze what causes excessivemovements or market instability, whether they stem from speculative flows or real trade andinvestment flows. For example, flows of nonresidents into all financial markets, flows oflarge exporters/importers, liquidity condition in the Offshore swap market, options marketand option-implied volatility, market long/short and strategic positions, significant technicalor stop-loss levels, bid offer spreads, etc.To monitor foreign exchange rate movements, nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) andreal effective exchange rate (REER) are both used as important pieces of information to makesure that our medium and long-term competitiveness compared to the rest of the world are in
check.
Developments in the foreign exchange market after the float
Offshore financial institutions have long been major players in the Thai FX market since
there are no regulations on foreign exchange trading in the spot market. Offshore players
have always accounted for a significant share of FX market volume until recently (September
2003) when restrictions were imposed on Non-Resident Baht Accounts (NRBA) and short-
term liquidity management following a surge in capital inflows which were deemed
speculative in nature. Since September 2003 when measures to deter short-term speculative
inflows were in place, non-residents have been considerably less active in the Thai Bahtmarket. Its share has fallen to less than 20%.
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Despite some restrictions on speculative players which cause reductions in market turnovers,
the foreign exchange market is still thriving. The daily turnover of interbank and customer
transactions in the spot and forward markets average around USD 1 billion, which is quite
substantial compared to other financial markets.
Intervention
Exchange rates can overshoot. In this case, intervention may help in limiting the extent of
overshooting, thus avoiding the disruptive impact and the need for costly real economic
adjustment. Besides, it would enable the private sector to gradually adjust to the changing
environment more efficiently. It is important, therefore, for the Bank to take these into
account and intervene if conditions warrant.
The Bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market mainly via outright spot transactions bybuying/selling Thai Baht against US dollar, the currency most widely traded. The FX swap
transactions are sometimes used in conjunction with the outright intervention to influence theliquidity condition in the offshore market in order to make it more costly to fund theirspeculative positions.Intervention has taken place in the spot market with both onshore and offshore counterpartieswhen necessary to maintain stability in the market.
Sterilization
The Bank is committed to the inflation targeting framework in which the 14-day repurchaserate is used as the operating target. Therefore, sterilization is part of the appropriatemanagement of liquidity in the money market.The Bank conducts daily open market operations to equilibrate banks reserves supply and
demand in order to maintain the policy rate. A daily liquidity forecast gives guidelines for theamount of injection/withdrawal needed, taken into accounts exogenous factors such aschanges in currency in circulation and government expenditures and receipts as well as theother operations of the Bank including the FX operations. In general, a combination ofmonetary instruments, namely, Repos, Bank of Thailand bond issuance and FX swaps is usedfor sterilizing the FX intervention.
To help safeguard against potential instability and speculative activities in the currencymarket, the Bank imposed a few measures on certain types of foreign exchange transactionsas follows.
January 29, 1998: non-residents who do not have any underlying trade orinvestment activities in Thailand are allowed to obtain Thai baht credit facilities from theiron-shore counterparties up to a combined outstanding amount of THB 50 million per entity.
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Asian crisis and its impact on Thailand (1997-1998)
The Asian financial crisis was a period offinancial crisis that gripped much of Asia
beginning in July 1997. The crisis started in Thailand with the financial collapse of the Thai
baht after the Thai government was forced to float the baht. Thailand's booming economy
came to a halt amid massive layoffs in finance, real estate, and construction that resulted in
huge numbers of workers returning to their villages in the countryside and 600,000 foreign
workers being sent back to their home countries. [31]The baht devalued swiftly and lost more
than half of its value. The baht reached its lowest point of 56 units to the US dollar in January1998. The Thai stock market dropped 75%.
Thai Financial Crises: Causes
Weaknesses in domestic macro-economic fundamentals
Weakness in the Financial System
Financial liberalization and the volatile international capital flows
Speculative Attacks and the Floatation of Baht
Unstable political and social institutions
Thai Financial Crises Impacts:
Highly depreciated baht because the lack of confidence in Thai economy
Massive increase in external debt burden created due to high dependency on foreign capital
and deeply depreciated baht that made the country effectively bankrupt even before thecollapse of its currency. Foreign debt-to-GDP ratios rose from 100% to 167%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisishttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_bahthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_bahthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_currencyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisishttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_bahthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_bahthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_currency7/28/2019 Report ON THAILAND DEVELOPING ECONOMY
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Thai Financial Crises Recovery
On 11 August 1997, the IMF unveiled a rescue package for Thailand with more than $17
billion, subject to conditions such as passing laws relating to bankruptcy (reorganizing and
restructuring) procedures and establishing strong regulation frameworks for banks and other
financial institutions. The IMF approved on 20 August 1997, another bailout package of $3.9
billion.
IMF intervention for crisis recovery:
Stop further capital outflows as well as regain the market confidence during the shock
turn around the foreign reserve position
Financial Sector Restructuring
This policy aimed to strengthen the banking system by closing possible loopholes on
facilitating new credits by hurting as least people as possible
Monetary policy taken for recovery:
Then the Bank of Thailand took a contractionary monetary policy by increasing domestic
interest rate that aim is to stabilize the exchange rate and high rate of rollover the short-term
foreign debt adopt new exchange rate policy to be managed float.
Unemployment rate:
Financial crisis in 1997 to 1998, the rate of unemployment was increased. In that time
unemployment was increased to 3.5%.
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Period 2000 to present
Monetary policy:
After the IMF program, the Bank of Thailand made an extensive reappraisal of both the
domestic and the external environment and concluded that the targeting of money supply
would be less effective than the targeting of inflation. The main cause for change was that the
relationship between money supply and output growth became less stable over time,particularly since the financial crisis.
With the exit from the IMF program, it became necessary for authorities to identify a new
policy anchor which would be appropriate for Thailand. The Bank of Thailand announced
the adoption of inflation targeting in May 2000, with a main objective of maintaining price
stability. Given the institutional reforms required for an inflation targeting framework to
operate successfully, it was envisaged that inflation targeting would help rebuild confidence
and credibility of the central bank and monetary, going forward
Under the inflation targeting framework the Monetary Policy Board (MPB) was first
appointed on 5 April 2000 and vested with the power to decide monetary policy by the
Governor. At present, however, the Monetary Policy Council, comprising 7 members - 3
from the Bank of Thailand and 4 external members - is responsible for deciding on the
direction of monetary policy.
GDP growth:
After 1999 the GDP growth rate continued to increase. At the time of global financial crisis
in 2008 economic growth (GDP) decreased to negative level. In 2011 devastating flood hadoccurred in Thailand. About one third of the country experienced flooding,
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including two key manufacturing provinces producing automobiles and
electronic components, bringingdown annual GDP growth from 7.8 percent in
2010 to 0.1 percent in 2011 after contracting by an astounding 11 percent in
the last quarter of the year (which corresponds to an annualized rate of about
50 percent seasonally adjusted data). The Thai government responded to the
floods with a broad set of policies, including fiscal stimulus, an infrastructure
investment plan, and the BOT cut policy rates by 50 basis points to further
support the recovery.
Global financial crisis and its impact on Thailand
The Thai economy was affected by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) through shocks to
value chain (trade channel) and financial channel. Contraction in global demand led to
declines in export, manufacturing production and capital utilization accordingly, which thenled to declining in the countrys consumption and investment. On the other hand, interest rate
gap between Thailand and advanced economy became widening caused massive capital
inflows and Baht appreciation, which brought about the severe impact to labor intensive
production sectors of the country, while the sectors with high import content benefited from
this incident. Baht had appreciated by 10% against the US Dollar in 2010.
Figure 1: Transmission Mechanism of 2008-2009 Global Financial Crises to the ThaiEconomy
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Adopted fiscal and monetary policy for recovery of GFC:
The Thai government has imposed three types of policy to rebuild confidence, gain economic
recovery, and stimulate new economic growth. First, two phases of stimulus package, with
the combination of tax measures, are implemented at different periods of time. The fiscal
stimulus packages have included short-term expenditure measures namely Stimulus Package
1 (SP1) which amounted THB116.7 Billions aiming to reduce impact of the GFC, long-term
investment plan (Stimulus Package 2 (SP2)) which amounted THB 1.43 Trillion aiming to
improve the countrys competitiveness and tax measures. In 2009, the Thai government
imposed -5.6% budget deficits to GDP due to these measures. Tightening fiscal policies such
as increase in VAT rate and the reduction of current government expenditure were imposed.
After imposing the tight fiscal policy at the early stage of crisis management, the government
refused to increase the VAT, but rather stimulated the domestic demand as well as introducedthe fiscal finance policy as an alternative channel of micro credits. Second, the quasi fiscal
policy is implemented as a fast-track policy to create liquidity for business sector. Lastly, the
monetary policy is introduced as another tool to stimulate the economic growth. Figure 8
shows that, in 2009, the government ran 5.6% budget deficit to GDP while the Bank of
Thailand has reduced policy interest rate (RP 1 day) from 3.75% to 1.25%.
Figure: Government Budget and Interest Rate Policy Trends
Unemployment rate:
Growth from 1985 to 2011, unemployment rate in Thailand decreased gradually. But in 1998
and after the global financial crisis the unemployment rate increased to the some extent. But
at present the unemployment rate is at 0.7% of the total labor force of Thailand.
Reason of low unemployment:
1. Low wages.
2. Under unemployment.
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3. Low insurance facility.
The Human Development Index-ThailandThe HDI represents a push for a broader definition of well-being and provides a composite
measure of three basic dimensions of human development: health, education and income.
Between 1980 and 2012 Thailand's HDI rose by 1.5% annually from 0.490 to 0.690 today,
which gives the country a rank of 103 out of 187 countries with comparable data.
Fig: HDI ranking 2012 (Source-UNDP website).
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Life expectancy at birth is provided by the UN Department of Economic
and Social Affairs; mean years of schooling are based on UNESCOs
Institute for Statistics (UIS) educational attainment data and Barro
and Lee methodology; expected years of schooling are provided by
UIS; and GNI per capita by the World Bank and the InternationalMonetary Fund. For a few countries, mean years of schooling are
estimated from nationally representative household surveys, and for
few countries GNI was obtained from the UN SNA(School Nutrition
Association) Main Aggregates database..
Table A: Thailands HDI trends based on consistent time series data, new
component indicators and new methodology.
Life expectancyat birth
Expectedyears of
schooling
Mean yearsof schooling
GNI percapita (2005
PPP$)
HDI value
1980 65.5 7.9 3.7 2,199 0.490
1985 70.1 8.6 4.1 2,582 0.532
1990 72.5 8.4 4.6 3,891 0.569
1995 72.3 9.6 5 5,593 0.608
2000 72.5 10.6 5.4 5,411 0.625
2005 73.2 12.3 5.9 6,350 0.662
2010 74 12.3 6.6 7,343 0.686
2011 74.1 12.3 6.6 7,359 0.686
2012 74.3 12.3 6.6 7,722 0.690
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Conclusion
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Appendix
Appendix no:1
Year GDP growth (annual%)
Foreign directinvestment, net inflows
(BoP, current US$)
UnemploymentRate (% of total
labor force)
1985 4.647237795 163200658 3.70000005
1986 5.533828594 262504153.8 3.5
1987 9.518950062 351932497.4 5.80000019
1988 13.28811275 1105370110 3
1989 12.19050516 1775449345 1.39999998
1990 11.16716153 2443549743 2.20000005
1991 8.558261314 2013985971 2.70000005
1992 8.08338859 2113021867 1.39999998
1993 8.2510453 1804040985 1.51994 8.9871847 1366440825 1.29999995
1995 9.23748041 2067936429 n/a
1996 5.90134481 2335837475 1.10000002
1997 -1.3713735 3894755071 0.89999998
1998 -10.50997279 7314804931 3.4000001
1999 4.4476363 6102677671 3
2000 4.75007032 3365987583 2.4000001
2001 2.167264271 5067170388 2.5999999
2002 5.31757375 3341612007 1.79999995
2003 7.13997532 5232270340 1.52004 6.3440735 5860255943 1.5
2005 4.60469895 8055353138 1.29999995
2006 5.092898713 9454930945 1.20000005
2007 5.044316148 11326925416 1.20000005
2008 2.4843004 8538342442 1.20000005
2009 -2.32984859 4853961111 1.5
2010 7.81051239 9103993910 1
2011 0.077086894 7780007829 0.69999999
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Appendix no: 2
Year Exports of goods and
services (current US$)
Imports of goods and
services (current US$)
Inflation, consumer
prices (annual %)1985 9030266869 10091466324 2.43173123
1986 11033549034 10157503567 1.84167597
1987 14601717494 14318700014 2.5
1988 20357574111 21214461327 3.80487805
1989 25231064624 27083484695 5.35714286
1990 29129276486 35545809870 5.86399474
1991 35329436930 41756457099 5.7098526
1992 41206839597 45675755593 4.13914575
1993 47453534682 52752822875 3.31219168
1994 56094978119 63084058014 5.04774898
1995 70305504407 81632738838 5.81818182
1996 71417456082 82833927219 5.80510555
1997 72442634974 70306573640 5.62579747
1998 65860573590 48088404966 7.99472875
1999 71490260222 56073603469 0.284726459
2000 81953034439 71358172960 1.59196917
2001 76088350937 68589774464 1.62690887
2002 81447793591 72957609874 0.69730898
2003 93686920895 84013600222 1.80434995
2004 114062470127.91 106227162361.174 2.75914926
2005 129738091153.428 131712104146.932 4.54036922006 152514492371.047 145287260440.315 4.63747436
2007 181341466240.997 160625061561.727 2.27563283
2008 208371010977.598 201384462061.699 5.4
2009 180251066039.002 152439960566.765 -0.85388994
2010 227335959123.516 203641137800.333 3.31100478
2011 265972379368.812 250290800447.335 3.80928121
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Bibliography
1. World Bank database.
2. UNDP database.
3. IMF database.
4. Bank of Thailand database.
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