Regulation Bias Analysis

Joint PDCWG and QMWG Meeting11/2/2012

Regulation Bias Analysis

2

Regulation Deployment

January 2012

January 2011

Blue = Average Regulation DeployedRed = Average Generator Deviation

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Historical Regulation Deployment

April2012

April2011

Blue = Average Regulation DeployedRed = Average Generator Deviation

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Historical Regulation Deployment

July2012

July2011

Blue = Average Regulation DeployedRed = Average Generator Deviation

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Historical Regulation Deployment

October2012

October2011

Blue = Average Regulation DeployedRed = Average Generator Deviation

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Aggregate Error – Coal vs. Combined Cycles - October

COAL

COMBINED CYCLE

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Historical Regulation Deployment

October2012

Blue = Average Regulation DeployedRed = Average Generator Deviation

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Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error408 MWs

What does this pie chart show me?Displays the sum of error normalized over 5M Intervals in the month and breaks it down by Provider Type.

A positive sum means that resource output is greater than expected generation. A negative sum means that resource output is less than expected generation.

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Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error-2317 MWs

10

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error-547 MWs

11

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error956 MWs

12

Historical Regulation Deployment

October2012

Blue = Average Regulation DeployedRed = Average Generator Deviation

13

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error- 360 MWs

14

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error579 MWs

15

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error-982 MWs

16

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error-1738 MWs

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Historical Regulation Deployment

October2012

Blue = Average Regulation DeployedRed = Average Generator Deviation

18

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error-687 MWs

19

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error-1166 MWs

20

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error-1215 MWs

21

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error-1536 MWs

22

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error-1774 MWs

23

Sum of 5M Interval Error-1633 MWs

24

Historical Regulation Deployment

October2012

Blue = Average Regulation DeployedRed = Average Generator Deviation

25

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error1613 MWs

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Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error1404 MWs

27

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error-2161 MWs

28

Intervals with High Deviations - October

Sum of 5M Interval Error-5896 MWs