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The need and tools for regional modelling in terms of key material and energy flows, and its relation with GHG inventorying for regions
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Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement (IfaS) 15.03.2010
© IfaS 2008 1
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Regional Material Flow Modelling and
GHG Inventorying
Material Flow Management
Summer School Curitiba 2010
March 5-17, 2010, Curitiba
Universidade Positivo, Graduate Program
in Environmental Management
Angel Avadi
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Contents
� Sustainable development (briefly!)
� MFA and LCA
� Regional Material Flow Modelling
� National and regional GHG Inventorying
T1:Region
P1:goods
raw mater ials
P2:fossi l fuels
P3:imported
energy
P4:waste
P5:emissions
P7:waste
water
P8:imported
water
P9:energy
P10:water
P11:exported energy
P1:goods
raw materials
Angel:
IT engineer � eBusiness
management � IMAT
IT = a tool for everything, including
Material Flow Management
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Sustainable Development
� System change from “throughput” to “circular”
societies
� Decoupling energy from emissions and engage in
decarbonisation
� Bio-mimicry of ecosystems circular flows: no
waste!
“development that meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs”Brundtland Report (Our Common Future) ,1987, WCED
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Scopes and Tools for Sustainable Development
� Firm level
� Eco-efficiency
� Cleaner Production (PIUS)
� SCP
� Environmental strategies
• Bio-cascading
• extended product life
• reduced material intensity
• management practices, etc.
� Environmental
Management Systems
• ISO14001
• EMAS
� Industrial collaboration
� Industrial Ecology
� Industrial Symbiosis
�EIPs, Eco-Industrial
Networks
� Regional SD
�Urban Symbiosis
�RMFM
• CE, ZE, MFA
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Strategies for Regional Development
� Regional Sustainable
Development
� MFM: regional value-adding
strategies
� Pragmatically extends
Agenda 21
� Interdisciplinary approach
� Adaptation to specific
conditions
� Conventional regional
development strategies:
� poverty reduction,
� canned receipts for
development (e.g.
Washington Concensus)
� UN, OECD, IMF/WB,
etcD
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Regional Material Flow Management
� Region is an ideal system to optimise towards
sustainability
� Build the Circular Economy (CE) via Zero
Emission (ZE) initiatives
� Engage in regional value-adding initiatives
� Aim for decentralized, regionally-bound activities
� Stimulate synergies among productive activities
(i.e. Industrial Symbiosis)
� Identify sources of emissions and reduce those
emissions
� Modelling regions to understand their material and
energy flows, and then optimise them!!!
Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement (IfaS) 15.03.2010
© IfaS 2008 2
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
MFA and LCA: tools for RMFM
� MFA for systematically assessing flows and stocks
of materials within a system
� Static depiction, but may lead to id trends of
accumulation/depletion of stocks
� Key aspects: energy and socioeconomic factors
� Can be used for regional modelling (understanding of
regional dynamics)
� LCA for understanding impact of products within a
system
� Various impact categories
� May lead to region-impacting measures, such as
Industrial Symbiosis initiatives: escalation of positive
impacts!
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Carbon Footprinting � for organisations
� CFP: CO2 (GHG) impact of an activity or
product along its whole life cycle
�a single impact category: GWP
� Organisations are interested in
�Calculate: ISO 14040 (LCA), ISO 14067
(CFP), PAS2050
�Reduce: energy efficiency, material efficiency
�Offset: emission-reducing projects
�COMMUNICATE!
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Suggested concepts hierarchy
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Objectives of Material Flow Analysis
� describe quantitatively the system, delineate it
and overcome its complexity: understand it!
� locate pollutants, potentials and unnecessary
cost factors
� deeply assess all input/output flows of energy
and materials in the system, including full cost
calculations
� identify improvement and innovation potentials
that may lead to a further local development
10
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.11
MFA activities
� Start with available data (statistics)
� Visit main facilities
� Interview key people!
�Stakeholder management is a whole
science/craft by itself
� Visualise gathered data (MFA software)
�Visualisation is key for system change
Compare towards RMFM approach
(e.g. as practiced by IfaS)
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Umberto 5.5 by IFU
• Industrial processes-oriented
• LCA-oriented modelling tool
• Designed to study Material Flow Networks
• Uses place/transition networks (Petri)
• Features valuation systems
• Produces mass balances, Life Cycle
Inventories and Sankey diagrams
• Ecoinvent-connected
• Modules library
• Umberto for Carbon Footprinting in BETA
Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement (IfaS) 15.03.2010
© IfaS 2008 3
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Umberto: industrial MFA
Could Umberto be used for regional material flow modelling???
T1: Malthouse
P1: raw materials
P2: Opp. supplies
P3: malt
P4:Waste
T2: Lorry transport
P5:emissions
P6:Brewing
malt
T3:brewery P7:BEEEER
P1: raw materials
P4:Waste
P8:preliminary
products
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Why RMFMo?
� The region can be optimised
towards sustainable
development: RMFM
� Modelling to reduce complexity
via aggregation, abstraction
and idealisation
� Modelling a region to describe
key material and energy flows
� Various approaches to regional
modelling
� Technical-scientific
� Economic-organisational
� Economic-ecological
Once simplified, a system
can be understood and thus
improved
Which impact of economic,
social and environmental
dimensions of the region
Ideal: economic-
organisational-ecological
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Critical aspects of RMFMo
� System boundaries
� Regional subsystems to be taken into account
� Integration of social aspects of sustainability, on
top of environmental and economic
� Eco-efficiency: dematerialisation of the economy
� Modesty (conservation): sustainable consumption
� Consistency (innovation): composition and effects
of materials, chosen/replaced
Fels, T. and Noell, C. (2001) Managing Sustainable Regional Material Flows: A Key Issue of Sustainable Development – Contemporary Concepts and Models
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Umberto challenges to RMFMo
� Abstraction/aggregation
� Households, Industry and commerce, Public, AFOLU
� Energy generation, waste management, waste and
waste water management, transportation, regionally-
relevant materials
� Materials, energy, emissions
� Customisation
� Pre-defined levels
� Parameterisation and flow calculation
� Desirable
� Data issues
� Tiered approach from IPCC
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
V. Regional modelling with Umberto© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Conclusions on Umberto for RMFMo
� A region can certainly be modelled, but
� Interpretability of Umberto outputs is
questionable and sensitive
� Umberto does not seem suitable for GHG
Inventorying
� Current version is not very user-friendly (for
programming)
� Generated Sankey diagrams are poorly
customisable; thus
� Additional modelling and simulation tools/
environments should be explored towards an
integrated RMFM/GHG Inventorying solution
Vensim DSS
Threshold 21 Model
GoldSim
Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement (IfaS) 15.03.2010
© IfaS 2008 4
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Why GHG inventorying?
� Material and energy flows feature associated GHG
emissions
� GWP of anthropogenic GHG emissions perceived
as a main environmental impact category
� Inventorying is understanding!
� Inventorying is first step towards reducing/
offsetting
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
GHG Inventorying
� Mostly inspired by IPCC/UNFCCC
� National, regional, supply chain levels
� Various guidelines
� IPCC Guidelines
� UNDP/UN DESA Manual
� US EPA guidelines (AP-42)
� CORINAIR Guidebook
� Various frameworks and programmes
� European Energy Award
� Climate Alliance
� RAPIDC
40.000
tCO2eq
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Key GHG Inventory design aspects
� Data selection
� Top-down
� Bottom-up
� Combination
� Boundary setting
� Territorial principle
� Causal principle
� “Problematic” categories
� Energy
� Transportation
Suggested approach:
IPCC’s tiers. Combination when
needed/possible (i.e. transportation)
Suggested approach:
IPCC principles � Territorial, except
for Energy (LCA/UNFCCC �
emission factors-based usage-related
emissions)
Suggested approach:
100% IPCC principles � emissions
calculation based upon sold fuel
ECO2Region - Balancing Methodology, by Ecospeed SA., Zurich, August 28, 2009
Kennedy et al (2009) Greenhouse Gas Emission Baselines for Global Cities and Metropolitan Regions
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
GHG Inventorying tools
Criteria ���� Interface Data Calculations and
boundaries
Applica-
bility
Methodo-
logy
Price
schemeTools
ECO2Region,
by Ecospeed
Remote
application, web-based
National GHG
Inventories + regional data
Based upon IPCC
guidelines; Territorial + perhaps cause
principle for energy and transportation
Regions
can be flexibly
defined
Bottom-up/
top-down combination
Commerc
ial
GEMIS,
by Öko-Institut
Standalone
Windows application,
requires browser
Extensive DB which
includes more than 8000 processes in
over 20 countries
Algorithms probably
proprietary, simple and following mostly
linear functions.
Regions Bottom-up/
top-down combination
Free,
public domain
CO2
Grobbilanz,
by Climate
Alliance Austria
Remote
application,web-based
National GHG
Inventories (Germany, Austria)
+ regional data
? Regions Bottom-up/
top-down combination
Free,
public domain
IFEU
Treibhausgasbil
anz, by IFEU
Institute
Excel tool Municipal data +
GEMIS for emission factors
Klimaschutz in
Kommunen guidelines + IPCC
Municipalit
ies, regions
Bottom-up Project-
specific
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Ideal features of a GHG inventorying tool
� applicable at different sizes and complexities of regions
(cities, towns, rural municipalities);
� based on easily accessible, available and maintained data,
such as official regional or national statistics;
� easy to use (usability), i.e. based on basic tools like web
browsers or spreadsheets;
� flexible as to accommodate estimations when specific
detailed figures are unavailable (i.e. regarding
transportation);
� a combination bottom-up with top-down approaches;
� coherent regarding boundaries setting (i.e. IPCC or LCA
approach to energy and transportation emissions); and
� based on trustable emission factors information sources.
eea (2008) BALANCE – globally, evaluate locally: Additional features for the European Energy Award®
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Desired features (IfaS)
� Should allow to predict/forecast CO2 development
as a reaction to measuresD
� In this context it should show CO2 abatement efficiency
per invested monetary unit (e.g. €/tCO2)
� Should be user-friendly and suitable for scenario-
buildingD (as opposite to Umberto)
� Should be some kind of regional investment and
policy setting steering toolD
� Should be designed for evaluating various GHG
abatement potentials and predict changes ex ante
� IfaS CO2 balancing tool for regions
Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement (IfaS) 15.03.2010
© IfaS 2008 5
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
IfaS: http://stoffstrom.org
IMAT: www.imat-master.de© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
RMFM approach (IfaS)
1. Informal data gathering (internet and literature-based) and
preliminary analysis of the region
2. Kick-off meeting(s) with pre-defined stakeholders. Stakeholder
analysis is to be performed along the whole process. Settle a
MFM board of trustees, with power to make decisions.
3. Information, motivation, training of decision makers and key
actors in the system, towards the ideal (vision) of a Circular
Economy.
4. Formal data gathering and Material Flow Analysis (MFA) of the
system, previous definition of the system boundaries . MFA
should focus on the urban systems, main economic drivers, and
explore possibilities for interplay and circular material and energy
flows, as well as in the energetic and material utilisation of
“wastes”.
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
RMFM approach (IfaS)
4. (cont) Main goal: to understand and describe the system
(especially its real operation costs), for which IT and diagramming
tools are to be used (Sankey and block diagrams, modelling
tools, the Umberto MFA package, etc.) Network analysis should
identify the current interplay relations and potentials.
5. Define concrete optimisation potentials and craft sustainable
ideas towards it. Consider financing mechanisms
6. Craft a Master plan, stating the optimisation/development vision
for the system and both the strategy (programs) and tactics
(concrete projects, featuring financial aspects and project
management) to achieve it.
7. Founding an MFM firm (public or public-private partnership) to
deal with the projects implementation, involving the MFM-Team
and the MFM board.
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Steps for CFP and offseting
� CFP or LCA to accurately determine the current carbon footprint
� Identification of hot-spots in terms of energy consumption and associated
CO2-emissions (energetic transparency)
� Where possible, changing to another electricity company to switch to
buying electricity from renewable sources: wind turbines, solar panels,
biomass-to-energy, hydroelectric plants
� Optimisation of energy efficiency and, thus, reduction of CO2-emissions
and reduction of other GHG emissions contributed from production
processes
� Identification of solutions to neutralise the CO2 emissions that cannot be
eliminated by energy efficiency measures. This last step includes carbon
offsetting; investment in projects that aim at the reducing CO2 emissions,
for instance LULUCF, carbon trading, etc.
© Institut für angewandtes Stoffstrommanagement Recognise potentials. Optimise proccesses. Create added-value.
Offseting ideas
� Renewable energy: wind, solar, hydro, biomass to energy
� Methane collection and combustion: flaring and biogas
� Energy efficiency: co-generation, energy-efficient buildings, fuel
efficiency/substitution, energy transparency, PIUS measures
� Destruction of industrial pollutants: suitable for CDM, but perhaps
leading to “evil” incentives
� LULUCF projects (Land use, land-use change and forestry)
� Purchase of carbon allowances from emissions trading schemes
� Links with emission trading schemes: after accredited by
UNFCCC, a project can be linked to EUETS, KP, voluntary
markets.
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