Realistic Assessment of SADC Energy Demand and Supply Up ...ZAMBIA (ZESCO) Installed Capacity:...

Realistic Assessment of SADC

Energy Demand and Supply

Up to 2015

By Prof M Elmissiry

ENERGY SECTOR

NEPAD , Midrand

South Africa

PRESENTATION OUTLINES

1-SAPP UTILITIES CURRENT SUPPLY /DEMAND SITUATION

2-PROJECTED DEMAND FOR 2010-2015

3-SAPP PLANNED GENERATION PROJECTS FOR 2010-2015

4-SAPP PLANNED TRANSMISSION PROJECTS FOR 2010-2015

5-COMMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

SADC Demand and Supply ,

as of November 2009

(Source SAPP)

ANGOLA (ENE)

Installed Capacity: 1187MW

Available Capacity: 930MW

Peak Demand: 668MW

Capacity Required: 736MW

(10.2% Reserve)

Surplus of : 194MW

BOTSWANA (BPC)

Installed Capacity: 132MW

Available Capacity: 90MW

Peak Demand: 503MW

Capacity Required: 554MW

(10.2% Reserve)

Shortfall : 464MW

DRC (SNEL)

Installed Capacity: 2442MW

Available Capacity: 1170MW

Peak Demand: 1028MW

Capacity Required: 1133MW

(10.2% Reserve)

Surplus of : 37MW

LESOTHO (LEC)

Installed Capacity: 72MW

Available Capacity: 70MW

Peak Demand: 108MW

Capacity Required: 119MW

(10.2% Reserve)

Shortfall : 49MW

MALAWI (ESCOM)

Installed Capacity: 287MW

Available Capacity: 267MW

Peak Demand: 260MW

Capacity Required: 287MW

(10.2% Reserve)

Shortfall : 20MW

MOZAMBIQUE

Installed Capacity: 233MW 2075MW

Available Capacity: 174MW 2075MW

Peak Demand: 416MW

Capacity Required: 458MW

(10.2% Reserve)

Surplus of : 1791MW

EDM (MW) HCBC (MW)

NAMIBIA (NAMPOWER)

Installed Capacity: 393MW

Available Capacity: 360MW

Peak Demand: 430MW

Capacity Required: 474MW

Shortfall : 114MW

SOUTH AFRICA (ESKOM)

Installed Capacity: 44170MW

Available Capacity: 40483MW

Peak Demand: 35850MW

Capacity Required: 39507MW

(10.2% Reserve)

Surplus of : 976MW

SWAZILAND (SEC)

Installed Capacity: 70.6MW

Available Capacity: 70MW

Peak Demand: 200MW

Capacity Required: 220MW

(10.2% Reserve)

Shortfall : 150MW

TANZANIA (TANESCO)

Installed Capacity: 1008MW

Available Capacity: 680MW

Peak Demand: 700MW

Capacity Required: 771MW

(10.2% Reserve)

Shortfall : 91MW

ZAMBIA (ZESCO)

Installed Capacity: 1812MW

Available Capacity: 1200MW

Peak Demand: 1604MW

Capacity Required: 1768MW

(10.2% Reserve)

Shortfall : 580MW

ZIMBABWE (ZESA)

Installed Capacity: 2045MW

Available Capacity: 1080MW

Peak Demand: 1714MW

Capacity Required: 1889MW

Shortfall : 809MW

General Comments

�Only four countries are in surplus, namely

Angola, DRC, Mozambique and South

Africa.

�The remaining eight countries are in

electricity deficit.

�The total available capacity of the twelve

SAPP utilities is 48649MW, more than the

required capacity of 47916MW by 733MW

� If only the interconnected SAPP utilities

are considered, the excess is reduced to

650MW.

�There is 7278MW installed but not available

to the SAPP (rehabilitation, de-mothballing,

maintenance.)

Demand Growth (2010 – 2015)

�Assume Average Growth Rate of 4% for the

12 SAPP Countries. The required capacity

in MW is shown in Table 1 below:

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Required

Capacity 49828 51822 53894 56050 58292 60624

�The average yearly growth in demand

is about 2000MW.

�If additional yearly generation of 2000MW is

secured, the present surplus is assured.

SAPP Generation Plan

�Rehabilitation Projects

�Short Terms ProjectsTable 2

(Source SAPP)

No Country REHABILATION AND NEW PROJECTS

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TOTAL

1 Angola 140 260 400

2 Botswana 130 160 600 1200 2 090

3 DRC 162 324 486

4 Lesotho 110 110

5 Malawi 64 100 164

6 Mozambique 700 500 1000 4350 6550

7 Namibia 40 80 400 800 500 1820

8 South Africa 3000 1065 6844 4800 15709

9 Swaziland 140 140

10 Tanzania 160 50 440 650

11 Zambia 15 120 360 750 1 245

12 Zimbabwe 600 3 00 1400 2300

TOTAL 3325 2 447 8438 7150 2004 8300 31664

Project Capacity

(MW)

Expected

date

Cambamba II (hydro) 260MW 2012

Angola

Project Capacity

(MW)

Expected

Date

(i) Morupula B Expansion

(Phase 1) (Expansion of

existing coal fired plant)

600MW

(4x150

units)

2013

(ii) Mamabula (New, Coal

Mine & Station)

2400MW 2015

Botswana

Project Capacity

(MW)

Expected

Date

Muela phase2 110MW 2013

DRC

Project Capacity

(MW)

Expected

Date

(i) Inga 2 Rehab 162MW 2011

324MW 2012

Lesotho

Malawi

Project Capacity

(MW)

Expected Date

Kaphichira Phase 2

(New hydro)

64MW 2014

Fufu (New hydro

plant)

100MW 2015

Mozambique

Project Capacity (MW) Expected

Date

Temani GasPh.1 500 – 1000 2011

Mphanda Nkuwa 1500 2015

Moatize (Coal) Ph.I 1000

Ph.II 500

2014

HCB North Bank 850 2015

Benga (Coal) 500 to ramp up

to 2000

2013

Namibia

Project Capacity

(MW)

Expected

Date

Ruacana (hydro,

extension) 80 2011

Walvis Bay ,Coal 400 2013

Kudu (CCGT) 800 2015

Baynes (hydro,

lower Kunene

river)

500 2015

South Africa

Project Capacity

(MW)

Expected

Date

Grootvlei

(Rehab)

1200 2010

Komati (Rehab) 965 2011

Arnot (upgrade) 300 2010

Medupi (Coal) 4764 2012

Kusile (Coal) 4800 2013

OCGT 2084 2012

Tibatse 1500 2010

Sere 100 2011

Swaziland

Project Capacity

(MW)

Expected

Date

Ngwempisi/lower

Magudduza (hydro) 140MW 2014

Project Capacity

(MW)

Expected

Date

Kinyeredzi (Gas) 2 x 100MW 2011

Ruhudji (hydro) 440MW 2014

Tanzania

Zambia

Project Capacity

(MW)

Expected

Date

Kariba North

Bank

(extension

hydro)

2 x 180 2012

Itezhi-Tezhi

(hydro)

120 2011

Kafu Gorge

Lower (hydro)

750 2015

Project Capacity

(MW)

Expected

Date

Kariba South

Extension

(hydro)

2 x 150 2013

Hwange

Expansion (Coal)

2 x 300 2012

Gokwe North 1400 2015

Zimbabwe

SAPP Transmission plan:

� Connectors for non-connected members

�Transmission projects for congestion relief

and reinforcement

�Transmission projects for evacuation of new

generation from power sources to load

centres

No Project Name Description Expected

Date

Status

1 ZIZABONA Interconnector,

Phase 1 , 330kV

Zimbabwe , Zambia

Phase 2, Botswana,

Namibia

Transfer Capacity

200MW to 600MW

2010

2011

Awaiting

Financial

closure

2 Mozambique

Backbone

Transmission

Project

400kV AC & 800 kV

HVDC transmission

lines from North to

South

2015 Feasibility

studies

commenced

No Project Name Description Expected

Date

Status

3 Mozambique

Malawi

220kV

Interconnector

(connect Malawi to

SAPP via

Mozambique)

2012 Most approval

received EDM,

Mozambique

– awaiting

ESCOM,

Malawi.

4 DRC – Zambia 220kV

Interconnector

2010 Construction

Completed on

DRC side.

Tendering

stage on

Zambian side

No Project Name Description Expected

Date

Status

5 DRC-Zambia 330 Interconnector 2011 On going on

the Zambian

side

6 Zambia,

Tanzania

Kenya

330kV (Joining

SAPP, EAPP)

2013 Work

expected to

start next

year

Concluding Remarks

� SAPP plan for additional generation capacity

by 2015 (31664MW) exceeds the expected

growth in demand

(12,000MW4% growth)

15,000MW 5% growth

18,000MW 6% growth

� Rehabilitation & Demothballing of plants

alone meets the expected growth for the

coming three years (7278MW installed but

not available)

� High priority for meeting the demand should

be given to rehabilitation, de-mothballing and

expansion of generation plants (quicker,

cheaper)

� Though on SAPP level, planned additional

capacity meets growth in demand.But on

individual country levels, some countries

still have load shedding for years to

come.

Main Challenges

� Financial closer in time

� Cost recovery tariff versus investment

� Conclusion of Power Purchase Agreement

PPA,(tariff issues, standardization of PPA

terms)

� National versus regional interest

� Lack of technical capacity and

packaging of bankable projects

� Project acceleration team for

interconnector

� Compatible & harmonized regulatory

environment

THANK YOU