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R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 1
Week Week Monday, October 24Monday, October 24
• IT Project ManagementIT Project Management• Decision and Group SupportDecision and Group Support
• Knowledge WorkKnowledge Work
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 2
Project ManagementProject Management
• Application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to Application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project activities to meet project requirementsproject activities to meet project requirements
• Processes involve: initiating, planning, executing, controlling Processes involve: initiating, planning, executing, controlling and closingand closing
• Knowledge areas involve: integration (coordination), scope Knowledge areas involve: integration (coordination), scope (project boundary), time, cost, quality, human resources, (project boundary), time, cost, quality, human resources, communication, risk, and procurement communication, risk, and procurement
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 3
Project ManagerProject Manager
• Setting up the project – establish the scope, time frame and Setting up the project – establish the scope, time frame and deliverablesdeliverables
• Managing the schedule – coordinating activities and resources, Managing the schedule – coordinating activities and resources, and schedule of deliverablesand schedule of deliverables
• Managing the finances – costs, cash flows, benefitsManaging the finances – costs, cash flows, benefits
• Managing the benefits – profitability, cost reductions, changes Managing the benefits – profitability, cost reductions, changes to working capital, and adherence to regulatory/legal reform to working capital, and adherence to regulatory/legal reform
• Managing the risks, opportunities and issues – identify and Managing the risks, opportunities and issues – identify and weighweigh
• Soliciting independent reviews Soliciting independent reviews
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 4
Change ManagementChange Management
• Helping people to accept changeHelping people to accept change
– Overcoming resistanceOvercoming resistance
– Accept and adopt changesAccept and adopt changes
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 5
FreezeFreezeFreezeFreeze
Lewin-Schein Model for ChangeLewin-Schein Model for Change
MoveMoveMoveMove
Prepare for Prepare for changechange
Implement Implement changechange
Stop changeStop change
UnfreezeUnfreezeUnfreezeUnfreeze
Getting people to change their “behavior.”Getting people to change their “behavior.”
• Convincing Convincing people to accept people to accept changechange
• Selling the Selling the benefits of benefits of changechange
• Assurance that Assurance that change comes with change comes with predefined goalspredefined goals
• Stopping change Stopping change with goals are with goals are achievedachieved
• Managing Managing changechange
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 6
Lewin’s Theory of ChangeLewin’s Theory of Change
Driving Driving ForcesForces
Driving Driving ForcesForces
Restraining Restraining ForcesForces
Restraining Restraining ForcesForcesChangeChangeChangeChange
Driving forces must overcome restraining forcesDriving forces must overcome restraining forces
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 7
Perceived UsePerceived UsePerceived UsePerceived Use
Fred Davis’Fred Davis’Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease of Use, and Perceived Useof Use, and Perceived Use• Perceived Ease of UsePerceived Ease of Use
– Self-efficacy beliefs: Self-efficacy beliefs: Perceived exertion level to implement behavioral changePerceived exertion level to implement behavioral change
• Perceived UsefulnessPerceived Usefulness
– Outcome beliefs: Outcome beliefs: Perceived success resulting from behavioral changePerceived success resulting from behavioral change
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 8
Fred Davis’Fred Davis’Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease of Use, and Perceived Useof Use, and Perceived Use
Perceived Ease Perceived Ease of Useof Use
Perceived Perceived UsefulnessUsefulness
Perceived UsePerceived Use
Perceived use is the best Perceived use is the best predictor of actual future usepredictor of actual future use
If a person believes the amount of expended energy to adapt to a If a person believes the amount of expended energy to adapt to a new system will place him/her in a better position as a result of its new system will place him/her in a better position as a result of its
use, he/she is more likely to commit him/herself to using it.use, he/she is more likely to commit him/herself to using it.
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 9
Risk ManagementRisk Management
• Types of riskTypes of risk
– Technical – failure due to technologyTechnical – failure due to technology
– Business – failure do due organizational issuesBusiness – failure do due organizational issues
• Assessment of risksAssessment of risks
– Project’s leadership – commitment, experience, abilities, Project’s leadership – commitment, experience, abilities, formal and informal management skillsformal and informal management skills
– Employee’s perspective – acceptance to changeEmployee’s perspective – acceptance to change
– Scope and urgency – extent of change (breadth and depth), Scope and urgency – extent of change (breadth and depth), need to implement changeneed to implement change
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 10
Risk ManagementRisk Management
LeadershipLeadershipEmployees’ Employees’ PerspectivePerspective
Project Scope Project Scope and Urgencyand Urgency
++
++
++
++
++
++
++--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Likelihood of Likelihood of Business Business ChangeChange
Recommended Recommended Project MethodProject Method
HighHigh
LowLow
Big BangBig Bang
ImprovisationImprovisation
Guided EvolutionGuided Evolution
Top-down Top-down CoordinationCoordination
Championed Championed DealmakerDealmaker
Championed Championed ImprovisionImprovision
Champion Guided Champion Guided EvolutionEvolution
Migrate or Kill Migrate or Kill the Projectthe Project
Less
Less
Risky
Risky
More
More
Risky
Risky
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 11
Other Aspects of IT Project Other Aspects of IT Project ManagementManagementBased on a Survey of 10 Executives in Based on a Survey of 10 Executives in SacramentoSacramento• Develop and compare feasibility, complexity, scalability and Develop and compare feasibility, complexity, scalability and
cost of possible solutionscost of possible solutions
• Project portfolio – investing in the right projectsProject portfolio – investing in the right projects
• Aligning projects and initiatives to strategic objectivesAligning projects and initiatives to strategic objectives
• Risk management – risk considerations, factors and plansRisk management – risk considerations, factors and plans
– Contingency plansContingency plans
• Managing multiple vendors and workflowManaging multiple vendors and workflow
• Regulatory and compliance issuesRegulatory and compliance issues
• Leveling resources over projects – human, financial, technicalLeveling resources over projects – human, financial, technical
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 12
Other Aspects of IT Project Other Aspects of IT Project ManagementManagementBased on a Survey of 10 Executives in Based on a Survey of 10 Executives in SacramentoSacramento• Project planning, execution and scheduling – Prioritizing, Project planning, execution and scheduling – Prioritizing,
defining performance measures, tracking processes to ensure defining performance measures, tracking processes to ensure performance, schedule resources, project monitoring, change performance, schedule resources, project monitoring, change and service controls, quality assurance and testing, identify and service controls, quality assurance and testing, identify key driverskey drivers
• Project leadership – Assessing change and change Project leadership – Assessing change and change management, communication and organizational skillsmanagement, communication and organizational skills
• Adoption issuesAdoption issues
• Identify and understanding stakeholdersIdentify and understanding stakeholders
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 13
Good IT Project ManagementGood IT Project Management
• Deliver on timeDeliver on time
• Come in or under budgetCome in or under budget
• Meet the original objectivesMeet the original objectives
• Establish ground rulesEstablish ground rules
• Foster discipline, planning, documentation and managementFoster discipline, planning, documentation and management
• Obtain and document the “final” user requirementsObtain and document the “final” user requirements
• Obtain tenders from all appropriate potential vendorsObtain tenders from all appropriate potential vendors
• Include suppliers in decision makingInclude suppliers in decision making
• Convert existing dataConvert existing data
• Follow through after implementationFollow through after implementation
Successful project Successful project characteristicscharacteristics
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 14
Value of a System or ApplicationValue of a System or Application
• Benefits the business will receive from the ITBenefits the business will receive from the IT
– IT by itself provides no benefits or advantagesIT by itself provides no benefits or advantages
• Measuring benefitsMeasuring benefits
– Distinguish between the different roles of the systems – Distinguish between the different roles of the systems – support role, integral to strategy, or product/service support role, integral to strategy, or product/service offeringoffering
– Measure what is important to managementMeasure what is important to management
– Assess investments across organizational levelsAssess investments across organizational levels
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 15
Measuring Benefits: Role of SystemMeasuring Benefits: Role of System
• Measuring organizational performance – ability to support the Measuring organizational performance – ability to support the organization and its users with their tasksorganization and its users with their tasks
• Measuring business value – help meeting organizational and Measuring business value – help meeting organizational and business goalsbusiness goals
• Measuring a product or service – profitability of product or Measuring a product or service – profitability of product or serviceservice
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 16
Measuring Benefits: Importance to Measuring Benefits: Importance to ManagementManagement
• IT is usually not viewed as a revenue generatorIT is usually not viewed as a revenue generator
– Investment to improve the businessInvestment to improve the business
• Corporate effectivenessCorporate effectiveness
• Less tangible benefits includesLess tangible benefits includes
– Customer relations (satisfaction)Customer relations (satisfaction)
– Employee moraleEmployee morale
– Time to complete an assignmentTime to complete an assignment
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 17
Measuring Benefits: Across the Measuring Benefits: Across the OrganizationOrganization
• Potential benefits differ at Potential benefits differ at various organizational levelsvarious organizational levels
• DimensionsDimensions
– Economic performance Economic performance payoffs (market measures of payoffs (market measures of performance)performance)
– Organizational processes Organizational processes impact (measures of process impact (measures of process change)change)
– Technology impacts (impacts Technology impacts (impacts on key functionality)on key functionality)
Indi
vidu
al
Indi
vidu
alDiv
ision
Divisi
onCor
pora
te
Corpo
rate
Sources of ValueSources of Value
Assess IT’s impact Assess IT’s impact in each cellin each cell
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 18
Value of IT Investments to InvestorsValue of IT Investments to Investors
• Brynjolfsson, Hitt and Yang studyBrynjolfsson, Hitt and Yang study
– Every $1 of installed computer capital yielded up to $17 in Every $1 of installed computer capital yielded up to $17 in stock market value, and no less than $5stock market value, and no less than $5
– Led to organizational changes that created $16 worth of Led to organizational changes that created $16 worth of “intangible assets”“intangible assets”
– Past IT investments correlated with higher current market Past IT investments correlated with higher current market valuevalue
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 19
Value of IT Investments to InvestorsValue of IT Investments to Investors
• Brynjolfsson and Hitt studyBrynjolfsson and Hitt study
– Organizational factors correlated to and complemented IT Organizational factors correlated to and complemented IT investmentsinvestments
• Use of teams and related incentivesUse of teams and related incentives
• Individual decision-making authorityIndividual decision-making authority
• Investments in skills and educationInvestments in skills and education
• Team-based initiatives Team-based initiatives
– Businesses making the highest IT investments not only Businesses making the highest IT investments not only invest in IS but also invest in making organizational invest in IS but also invest in making organizational changes to complement the new ISchanges to complement the new IS
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 20
Value of IT Investments to InvestorsValue of IT Investments to Investors
• Brynjolfsson and Hitt study (Brynjolfsson and Hitt study (cont.cont.))
– Led to adoption of decentralized work practicesLed to adoption of decentralized work practices
• Frequent use of teamsFrequent use of teams
• Employees Employees empoweredempowered (i.e., given broader decision- (i.e., given broader decision-making authority)making authority)
• Offer more employee trainingOffer more employee training
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 21
Value of IT Investments to InvestorsValue of IT Investments to Investors
• Brynjolfsson, Hitt and Yang studyBrynjolfsson, Hitt and Yang study
– Companies with the highest market valuation had the Companies with the highest market valuation had the largest IT investments and decentralized work practiceslargest IT investments and decentralized work practices
– Market value of investing in IT is substantially higher in Market value of investing in IT is substantially higher in businesses that use these decentralized practices because businesses that use these decentralized practices because each dollar of IT investment is associated with more each dollar of IT investment is associated with more intangible assets because the IT investments complement intangible assets because the IT investments complement the work practices the work practices
ITIT
Other resourceOther resource
LeveragingLeveraging
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 22
Decision and Group SupportDecision and Group Support
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 23
Anthony's Taxonomy of Managerial Anthony's Taxonomy of Managerial ActivitiesActivitiesMatching Information to Management LevelsMatching Information to Management Levels
Sour
ceSo
urce
Inte
rnal
Inte
rnal
Ext
erna
lE
xter
nal
Scop
eSc
ope
Wel
l def
ined
Wel
l def
ined
Wid
eW
ide
Det
aile
dD
etai
led
Agg
rega
teA
ggre
gate
Tim
e H
oriz
onT
ime
Hor
izon
His
tori
cal
His
tori
cal
Futu
reFu
ture
Cur
renc
yC
urre
ncy
Qui
te o
ldQ
uite
old
Ver
y fr
eque
ntV
ery
freq
uent
Infr
eque
ntIn
freq
uent
Freq
uenc
y of
Use
Freq
uenc
y of
Use
Req
uire
d A
ccur
acy
Req
uire
d A
ccur
acy
Hig
hH
igh
Hig
hH
igh
Low
Low
Strategic Strategic PlanningPlanning
Hig
hly
curr
ent
Hig
hly
curr
ent
Lev
el o
f A
ggre
gati
onL
evel
of
Agg
rega
tion
Management Management ControlControl
Operational Operational ControlControl
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 24
ChoiceChoiceChoiceChoice
Decision Making and Problem SolvingDecision Making and Problem Solving
DesignDesignDesignDesign
IntelligenceIntelligenceIntelligenceIntelligenceHerbert Herbert Simon’s Simon’s Phases of Phases of Decision Decision MakingMaking
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 25
Decision Making and Problem SolvingDecision Making and Problem Solving
Intelligence: Intelligence: • Organizational Organizational
objectivesobjectives• Search and scanning Search and scanning
proceduresprocedures• Data collectionData collection• Problem identificationProblem identification• Problem ownershipProblem ownership• Problem classificationProblem classification• Problem statementProblem statement
Turban and Aronson, 1998Turban and Aronson, 1998
Herbert Herbert Simon’s Simon’s Phases of Phases of Decision Decision MakingMaking
ChoiceChoiceChoiceChoice
DesignDesignDesignDesign
IntelligenceIntelligenceIntelligenceIntelligence
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 26
Decision Making and Problem SolvingDecision Making and Problem Solving
Herbert Herbert Simon’s Simon’s Phases of Phases of Decision Decision MakingMaking
DesignDesign• Formulate a modelFormulate a model• Set criteria for choiceSet criteria for choice• Search for alternativesSearch for alternatives• Predict and measure Predict and measure
outcomesoutcomes
ChoiceChoice• Solution to the modelSolution to the model• Sensitivity analysis (what-if, goal seeking)Sensitivity analysis (what-if, goal seeking)• Selection of best (good) alternative(s)Selection of best (good) alternative(s)• Plan for implementationPlan for implementation
Turban and Aronson, 1998Turban and Aronson, 1998
ChoiceChoiceChoiceChoice
DesignDesignDesignDesign
IntelligenceIntelligenceIntelligenceIntelligence
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 27
Structured vs. Unstructured vs. Structured vs. Unstructured vs. Semi-Structured Decision MakingSemi-Structured Decision Making
• Structured Decisions:Structured Decisions:A procedure (i.e., rules, algorithms, etc.) can be followed in A procedure (i.e., rules, algorithms, etc.) can be followed in each phase of decision making and provides the decision-each phase of decision making and provides the decision-maker with a correct solution.maker with a correct solution.
• Unstructured Decisions: Unstructured Decisions: No procedures are available to guide the decision-maker No procedures are available to guide the decision-maker during any of the phases of decision making.during any of the phases of decision making.
• Semi-Structured Decisions:Semi-Structured Decisions:Occur when procedures are available to guide the decision-Occur when procedures are available to guide the decision-maker in one or two of the decision making phases, but not in maker in one or two of the decision making phases, but not in all of themall of them
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 28
Decision Making in the OrganizationDecision Making in the OrganizationT
ypes
of
Dec
isio
ns
Typ
es o
f D
ecis
ion
s StructuredStructured
Semi-StructuredSemi-Structured
UnstructuredUnstructured
Operational Operational ControlControl
Management Management ControlControl
Strategic Strategic PlaningPlaning
Management Level Management Level
Greater OpportunitiesGreater Opportunities
Greater OpportunitiesGreater Opportunities
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 29
Decision Making TechniquesDecision Making Techniques
Optimization, Optimization, EfficiencyEfficiency
Satisficing and Satisficing and Heuristic Approaches, Heuristic Approaches,
EffectivenessEffectivenessStrategic Strategic PlanningPlanning
Management Management ControlControl
Operational Operational ControlControl
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 30
Decision Support Systems (DSS)Decision Support Systems (DSS)
Characterized asCharacterized as
• Computer-based systems that help decision makers confront Computer-based systems that help decision makers confront ill-structured problems through direct interaction with data and ill-structured problems through direct interaction with data and analysis modelsanalysis models
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 31
Decision Support SystemsDecision Support Systems
• A DSS is an A DSS is an interactiveinteractive computer-based system that utilizes computer-based system that utilizes decision models, gives users easy and efficient access to decision models, gives users easy and efficient access to significant data bases, and provides significant data bases, and provides displaydisplay possibilities. The possibilities. The flexible capabilities of a DSS gives the user the opportunity to flexible capabilities of a DSS gives the user the opportunity to askask for information, to test out alternative ways of for information, to test out alternative ways of viewingviewing the the problem, to subsequently ask for different information, to use problem, to subsequently ask for different information, to use preprogrammed models, to construct his own decision-aiding preprogrammed models, to construct his own decision-aiding models, etc.models, etc.
King, 1983King, 1983
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 32
Model Model ManagementManagement
Model Model ManagementManagementDSSDSS
SoftwareSoftwareDSSDSS
SoftwareSoftware
Major Components of a DSSMajor Components of a DSS
DialogDialogComponentComponent
DialogDialogComponentComponent
Decision Maker
Models• Strategic, tactical,
operational• Financial• Statistical analysis • Graphical• Project management
Data Management
Turban and Aronson, 1998Turban and Aronson, 1998Sauter, 1997Sauter, 1997
• Database• Data Warehouse
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 33
DSS and Problem SolvingDSS and Problem Solving
• A DSS facilitates the decision-maker in solving ill-defined or A DSS facilitates the decision-maker in solving ill-defined or underparameterized problems.underparameterized problems.
• Its most distinguishing feature is its ability to incorporate the Its most distinguishing feature is its ability to incorporate the judgment, knowledge, intuition, decision style and personal judgment, knowledge, intuition, decision style and personal traits of the decision-maker into the solution.traits of the decision-maker into the solution.
• In a DSS environment, the decision-maker remains in control In a DSS environment, the decision-maker remains in control of the decision making process and directs the formulation of of the decision making process and directs the formulation of the solution.the solution.
• As opposed TPS and MIS solutions, a DSS solution does not As opposed TPS and MIS solutions, a DSS solution does not always represent the best solution (i.e., maximum, minimum, always represent the best solution (i.e., maximum, minimum, optimum) since qualitative factors are usually considered optimum) since qualitative factors are usually considered during the decision making process.during the decision making process.
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 34
Ski Resort Planning DSSSki Resort Planning DSS
An Application of Decision SupportAn Application of Decision Support
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 35
Ski Area PlanningSki Area Planning
• All ski area physical designs require basically the same inputs All ski area physical designs require basically the same inputs and the decision making process is the sameand the decision making process is the same
• Each resort offers a unique system of trails that appeals to Each resort offers a unique system of trails that appeals to different skill levels and social groupsdifferent skill levels and social groups
• Long-range objective is to maximize profits for the given Long-range objective is to maximize profits for the given terrain and market mixterrain and market mix
• An optimum design concentrates on balancing the downhill An optimum design concentrates on balancing the downhill and uphill capacitiesand uphill capacities
• The system of trails cannot be easily changed once they have The system of trails cannot be easily changed once they have been carvedbeen carved
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 36
Ski Area PlanningSki Area Planning
• (cont.)(cont.)
• Summer activities can complicate the designSummer activities can complicate the design
• The industry is capital intensiveThe industry is capital intensive
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 37
Ski Resort PlanningSki Resort PlanningPrimary ObjectivePrimary Objective
==Downhill CapacityDownhill Capacity
(Trails)(Trails)Uphill CapacityUphill Capacity
(Lifts)(Lifts)
Production CapacityProduction Capacity Market DemandMarket Demand
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 38
Ski Resort PlanningSki Resort Planning
• Terrain Capacity AnalysisTerrain Capacity Analysis
– Examine the physical attributes of the Examine the physical attributes of the mountainmountain
– Create initial set of trailsCreate initial set of trails
– Determine the mountain's downhill Determine the mountain's downhill capacity (i.e., trail system)capacity (i.e., trail system)
• Market AnalysisMarket Analysis
– Match the trail system to the market mixMatch the trail system to the market mix
Downhill Downhill CapacityCapacity
Uphill Uphill CapacityCapacity
““Best” DesignBest” Design
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 39
Topography Map (Terrain)Topography Map (Terrain)
Steep slopeSteep slope
Gentle slopeGentle slope
Expert and advance trailsExpert and advance trails
Novice and Novice and beginner trail beginner trail
LiftLift
LiftLift
LiftLift
Each circle represents an altitude change of 250 feetEach circle represents an altitude change of 250 feet
LiftLift
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 40
Topographical MapTopographical MapAn ExampleAn Example
Source: Dept. of Geosciences, Source: Dept. of Geosciences, Idaho State UniversityIdaho State University
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 41
Physical DesignPhysical Design
• Physical terrain and constraintsPhysical terrain and constraints
– Slope of mountain sidesSlope of mountain sides
– Physical obstacles (e.g., cliffs, boulders, creeks, etc.)Physical obstacles (e.g., cliffs, boulders, creeks, etc.)
– Aesthetics (i.e., forest scenery)Aesthetics (i.e., forest scenery)
• Designer selects the initial layoutDesigner selects the initial layout
– Initial set of trailsInitial set of trails
• Downhill capacity of skiers calculatedDownhill capacity of skiers calculated
– Number of skiers per acre (judgmental)Number of skiers per acre (judgmental)
• Type of skier (i.e., skill level)Type of skier (i.e., skill level)
• Regional densityRegional density
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 42
Market AnalysisMarket Analysis
• Objective: match the trail system to the market demandsObjective: match the trail system to the market demands
• Seven skier skill levelsSeven skier skill levels
– BeginnerBeginner
– NoviceNovice
– Low intermediate Low intermediate
– IntermediateIntermediate
– High intermediateHigh intermediate
– AdvanceAdvance
– ExpertExpert
Market Mix: Percentage Market Mix: Percentage from each categoryfrom each category
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 43
Decision Support SystemDecision Support System
• Calculates trail system capacityCalculates trail system capacity
– Matches skill levels to trail via slope gradesMatches skill levels to trail via slope grades
– Takes into account the skier density per acre by skill levelTakes into account the skier density per acre by skill level
• Calculates the market mix of skier skill levelsCalculates the market mix of skier skill levels
– Provides the expected numbers from a given market mix Provides the expected numbers from a given market mix distributiondistribution
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 44
Decision Support System (Cont.)Decision Support System (Cont.)
• Balances trail system to market mixBalances trail system to market mix
– Changes input parameters:Changes input parameters:
• Trail attributesTrail attributes
• Density levelsDensity levels
• Market mix distributionMarket mix distribution
• Examines uphill capacityExamines uphill capacity
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 45
Terrain Capacity Analysis: Slope Terrain Capacity Analysis: Slope InventoryInventory
Skill LevelRoute
IDVertical Length Length Width
Low/Top% Grade
Acres/Skiers
Novice 1.01 500 3000 100 8/25 6.9/275
Low Intermediate
2.01 500 2800 150 15/30 9.6/289
Intermediate 9.03 800 3600 150 20/40 12.4/248
High Intermediate
10.03 1000 4200 150 20/45 14.5/217
Advance 12.03 1000 4300 150 20/60 14.8/148
Expert 11.03 1000 4000 150 60/22 13.8/138
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 46
Market Display: Design for 3,837 Market Display: Design for 3,837 SkiersSkiers
Skill Level Goal Goal Current
Beginner .05 192 224
Novice .10 384 1166
Low Intermediate .20 767 1418
Intermediate .30 1151 478
High Intermediate .20 767 217
Advance .10 384 164
Expert .05 192 170
Number of Skiers
Computed by the DSSComputed by the DSSMarket percent Market percent estimated by the plannerestimated by the planner
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 47
Skill BalanceSkill Balance
Skill Level Acres Skiers Density
Beginner 4.5 100 22.3
Novice 29.2 200 6.9
Low Intermediate 47.3 400 8.5
Intermediate 23.9 600 25.1
High Intermediate 14.5 400 27.7
Advance 16.4 200 12.2
Expert 17.0 100 5.9
Sum 152.7 2000 13.1
Skiers per acreSkiers per acreEstimated Estimated for marketfor market
Designed into Designed into layoutlayout
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 48
Ski Resort Planning DSSSki Resort Planning DSS
• Iterative processIterative process
– Adjusts made to physical designAdjusts made to physical design
– Skier capacities for each level are recalculated and Skier capacities for each level are recalculated and compared to the market demand estimatescompared to the market demand estimates
– Process ends when the uphill capacity (i.e., market Process ends when the uphill capacity (i.e., market demand) is approximately equal to the downhill capacity demand) is approximately equal to the downhill capacity (i.e., physical layout)(i.e., physical layout)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 49
Data MiningData Mining
• Knowledge discovery:Knowledge discovery:
– Knowledge extractionKnowledge extraction
– Data archaeologyData archaeology
– Data explorationData exploration
– Data pattern processingData pattern processing
– Data dredgingData dredging
– Information harvestingInformation harvesting
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 50
Data MiningData Mining
• Five common types of information obtained by data mining:Five common types of information obtained by data mining:
– ClassificationClassification
– ClusteringClustering
– AssociationAssociation
– SequencingSequencing
– ForecastingForecasting
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 51
OLAP and Multi-dimensional Database OLAP and Multi-dimensional Database (MDDBMS)(MDDBMS)
ProductsProducts
Geographic locationsGeographic locations
Sales medium Sales medium (e.g., retail, (e.g., retail,
Internet, mail Internet, mail order)order)
Time is an implied dimensionTime is an implied dimension
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 52
Multi-dimensional Database (MDDBMS)Multi-dimensional Database (MDDBMS)
ProductsProducts
Geographic locationsGeographic locations
Sales mediumSales medium
ComputersComputers
PrintersPrinters
ScannersScanners
CamerasCameras
Califo
rnia
Califo
rnia
Nevad
a
Nevad
aOre
gon
Ore
gon
RetailRetailMailMail
InternetInternet
For example…For example…
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 53
Multi-dimensional Database (MDDBMS)Multi-dimensional Database (MDDBMS)Working with Two DimensionsWorking with Two Dimensions
Total Total RevenueRevenue
Repeated for Repeated for each yeareach year
‘‘9999‘‘9999
‘‘9696‘‘9696
‘‘9595‘‘9595
‘‘9797‘‘9797
‘‘9898‘‘9898
Q1Q1Q1Q1
Q2Q2Q2Q2
Q3Q3Q3Q3
Q4Q4Q4Q4
AprilAprilAprilApril
JuneJuneJuneJune
MayMayMayMay
InternetInternetInternetInternet
Mail Mail OrderOrderMail Mail
OrderOrder
RetailRetailRetailRetail
EntertainmentEntertainmentEntertainmentEntertainment
AudioAudioAudioAudio
VisualVisualVisualVisual
CD/DVDCD/DVDCD/DVDCD/DVD
ElectronicsElectronicsElectronicsElectronics
ReceiversReceiversReceiversReceivers
SpeakersSpeakersSpeakersSpeakers
SpeakersSpeakersSpeakersSpeakers
Repeated for Repeated for each quartereach quarter Repeated for Repeated for
each mediumeach medium
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 54
Multi-dimensional Database (MDDBMS)Multi-dimensional Database (MDDBMS)Working with Three DimensionsWorking with Three Dimensions
Total Total RevenueRevenue
‘‘9999‘‘9999
‘‘9696‘‘9696
‘‘9595‘‘9595
‘‘9797‘‘9797
‘‘9898‘‘9898
Q1Q1Q1Q1
Q2Q2Q2Q2
Q3Q3Q3Q3
Q4Q4Q4Q4
InternetInternetInternetInternet
Mail Mail OrderOrderMail Mail
OrderOrder
RetailRetailRetailRetail
EntertainmentEntertainmentEntertainmentEntertainment
AudioAudioAudioAudio
VisualVisualVisualVisual
CD/DVDCD/DVDCD/DVDCD/DVD
ElectronicsElectronicsElectronicsElectronics
ReceiversReceiversReceiversReceivers
SpeakersSpeakersSpeakersSpeakers
SpeakersSpeakersSpeakersSpeakers
N. AmericaN. AmericaN. AmericaN. America
AisaAisaAisaAisa
USAUSAUSAUSA
EuropeEuropeEuropeEurope
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 55
Oracle ExpressOracle ExpressDimensionsDimensions
Retail sales Retail sales dimensiondimension
Retail sales Retail sales dimensiondimension
Time dimensionTime dimensionTime dimensionTime dimension
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 56
Retail sales Retail sales dimensiondimension
Retail sales Retail sales dimensiondimension
Distribution channels dimensionDistribution channels dimensionDistribution channels dimensionDistribution channels dimension
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 57
Geographic Information Systems (GIS)Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
• Computer-based system for capturing, storing, checking, Computer-based system for capturing, storing, checking, integrating, manipulating, and displaying data using digitized integrating, manipulating, and displaying data using digitized mapsmaps
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 58
Geographic Information Systems (GIS)Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
• Computer-based system for capturing, storing, checking, Computer-based system for capturing, storing, checking, integrating, manipulating, and displaying data using digitized integrating, manipulating, and displaying data using digitized mapsmaps
Telecommunications, Teligent IT/Applications, Vienna, Virginia Telecommunications, Teligent IT/Applications, Vienna, Virginia By Jubal Harpster, Mike Ruth, and Brian SandrikBy Jubal Harpster, Mike Ruth, and Brian Sandrik
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 59
Source: GIS.comSource: GIS.com
GISGIS
A GIS combines layers of A GIS combines layers of information about a place to give information about a place to give you a better understanding of you a better understanding of that place. What layers of that place. What layers of information you combine information you combine depends on your purpose—depends on your purpose—finding the best location for a finding the best location for a new store, analyzing new store, analyzing environmental damage, viewing environmental damage, viewing similar crimes in a city to detect similar crimes in a city to detect a pattern, and so on.a pattern, and so on.
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 60
Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 61
Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 62
Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 63
Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 64
Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 65
Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 66
Based on acceleration of gravity and epicenters of actual significant Based on acceleration of gravity and epicenters of actual significant events showing magnitude of event (Richter scale) (1900 - 1994)events showing magnitude of event (Richter scale) (1900 - 1994)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 68
Earthquake Probability and Transportation Network Earthquake Probability and Transportation Network
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 69
Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)Source: Edgetech America (discovergis.com)
Transportation and UnemploymentTransportation and Unemployment
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 70
Group Support Systems (GSS)Group Support Systems (GSS)
Collaborative ComputingCollaborative Computing
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 71
Characteristics of the Group TasksCharacteristics of the Group Tasks
• Problem solve poorly structured problemsProblem solve poorly structured problems
• Long-range or strategic impactLong-range or strategic impact
• Organizational impactOrganizational impact
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 72
Nature of Group Decision MakingNature of Group Decision Making
• Group may be involved in a decision Group may be involved in a decision oror decision-related task decision-related task
• CharacterizationCharacterization
– Joint activity engaged in by a group of people of usually Joint activity engaged in by a group of people of usually equal or near equal statusequal or near equal status
– Outcome of the meeting depends partly onOutcome of the meeting depends partly on
• The knowledge, opinions and judgments of its The knowledge, opinions and judgments of its participantsparticipants
• The composition of the group The composition of the group
• The decision making processes used by the group The decision making processes used by the group
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 73
Nature of Group Decision MakingNature of Group Decision Making
• Characterization (cont.)Characterization (cont.)
– Differences in opinion are settled either by the ranking Differences in opinion are settled either by the ranking person present, or through negotiation or arbitrationperson present, or through negotiation or arbitration
Turban and Aronson, 1998Turban and Aronson, 1998
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 74
Potential Benefits of Group WorkPotential Benefits of Group Work
• Groups are better than individuals at understanding problemsGroups are better than individuals at understanding problems
• People are accountable for decisions in which they participatePeople are accountable for decisions in which they participate
• Groups are better than individuals in catching errorsGroups are better than individuals in catching errors
• A group has more information (knowledge) than any one A group has more information (knowledge) than any one membermember
• Groups can combine knowledge and create new knowledge Groups can combine knowledge and create new knowledge which may result in more alternatives and better solutionswhich may result in more alternatives and better solutions
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 75
Potential Benefits of Group WorkPotential Benefits of Group Work
• Synergy during problem solving may be producedSynergy during problem solving may be produced
• Working in a group can stimulate the participants and processWorking in a group can stimulate the participants and process
• Group members have their ego embedded in the decision and Group members have their ego embedded in the decision and therefore will commit themselves to the solutiontherefore will commit themselves to the solution
• Risk propensity is balanced (high risk takers vs. conservatives)Risk propensity is balanced (high risk takers vs. conservatives)
Turban and Aronson, 1998Turban and Aronson, 1998
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 76
Potential Dysfunctions of Group Potential Dysfunctions of Group WorkWork
• Social pressures of conformity that may result in Social pressures of conformity that may result in groupthinkgroupthink
• Time-consuming, slow process (Time-consuming, slow process (single processingsingle processing))
• Lack of coordination of work done and poor planning of Lack of coordination of work done and poor planning of meetingsmeetings
• Inappropriate influences (i.e., domination of time, topic or Inappropriate influences (i.e., domination of time, topic or opinion by one or few individuals, fear of speaking)opinion by one or few individuals, fear of speaking)
• Tendency of group members to rely upon others to do most of Tendency of group members to rely upon others to do most of the workthe work
• Tendency toward compromised solutions of poor qualityTendency toward compromised solutions of poor quality
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 77
Potential Dysfunctions of Group Potential Dysfunctions of Group WorkWork
• Incomplete task analysisIncomplete task analysis
• Nonproductive time (due to socializing, getting ready, waiting Nonproductive time (due to socializing, getting ready, waiting for people)for people)
• Tendency to repeat what was already saidTendency to repeat what was already said
• Large cost of making decision (hours of participation, travel Large cost of making decision (hours of participation, travel cost, etc.)cost, etc.)
• Tendency to make riskier decision than shouldTendency to make riskier decision than should
• Incomplete or inappropriate use of informationIncomplete or inappropriate use of information
• Inappropriate representation of the groupInappropriate representation of the group
Turban and Aronson, 1998Turban and Aronson, 1998
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 78
GSSGSS
• An information technology (IT)-based environment that supports An information technology (IT)-based environment that supports group meetings, which may be distributed geographically and group meetings, which may be distributed geographically and temporally. The IT environment includes, but is not limited to, temporally. The IT environment includes, but is not limited to, distributed facilities, computer hardware and software, audio and distributed facilities, computer hardware and software, audio and video technology, procedures, methodologies, facilitation, and video technology, procedures, methodologies, facilitation, and applicable group data. Group tasks include, but are not limited applicable group data. Group tasks include, but are not limited to communication, planning, idea generation, problem solving, to communication, planning, idea generation, problem solving, issue discussion, negotiation, conflict resolution, system analysis issue discussion, negotiation, conflict resolution, system analysis and design, and collaborative group activities such as document and design, and collaborative group activities such as document preparation and sharing.preparation and sharing.
Dennis et al., 1988Dennis et al., 1988
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 79
GSSGSS
• A GSS is an interactive computer-based system that facilitates A GSS is an interactive computer-based system that facilitates the solution of unstructured problems by a set of decision the solution of unstructured problems by a set of decision makers working together as a group.makers working together as a group.
• Components of a GSS include:Components of a GSS include:
– HardwareHardware
– SoftwareSoftware
– PeoplePeople
– ProcedureProcedure
• These components are arranged to support a group of people, These components are arranged to support a group of people, usually in the context of a decision-related meeting.usually in the context of a decision-related meeting.
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 80
Components of a GSSComponents of a GSS
DatabaseDatabase
Dialogue Dialogue ManagerManager
GroupwareGroupwareGSSGSS
ProcessorProcessorModel BaseModel Base
UsersUsers
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 81
GSS LayoutGSS Layout
ProjectorProjector
Facilitator Console Facilitator Console and Network Serverand Network Server
WorkstationsWorkstations
Projection ScreenProjection ScreenWhite BoardWhite Board White BoardWhite Board
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 82
US Air Force Innovation Center
Projection screensWhiteboard
Facilitator’s station
Individual workstations
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc. (www.gdss.com)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 83
USMC HQ Executive Decision RoomUSMC HQ Executive Decision Room
GDSS Decision CenterGDSS Decision Center
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc. (www.gdss.com)
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc. (www.gdss.com)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 84
DC OTR IV & V Center, The Washington, DC Office of Tax and RevenueDC OTR IV & V Center, The Washington, DC Office of Tax and Revenue
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc. (www.gdss.com)
Facilitator
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 85
The Airlie Institute, located at the Airlie Conference Center in Warrenton, VirginiaThe Airlie Institute, located at the Airlie Conference Center in Warrenton, Virginia
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc. (www.gdss.com)
Projection screens
Facilitator’s station
Electronic whiteboard
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 86
Emergency Response Center at Maxwell AFB in AlabamaEmergency Response Center at Maxwell AFB in Alabama
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc. (www.gdss.com)Group Decision Support Systems, Inc. (www.gdss.com)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 87
USAF Y2K Fusion CenterUSAF Y2K Fusion Center
Group Decision Support Systems, Inc. (www.gdss.com)Group Decision Support Systems, Inc. (www.gdss.com)
Scr
een
Scr
een
Breakout Breakout RoomsRooms
Scr
een
Scr
een
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 88
Electronic Meeting SupportElectronic Meeting Support
Same Place
Different Place
Same Time Different Time
Face-to-face meeting
Administration, filing filtering
Cross-distance meeting
Ongoing coordination
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 89
ToolsTools
• Electronic Brainstorming. Gather ideas and comments in an Electronic Brainstorming. Gather ideas and comments in an unstructured manner.unstructured manner.
• Topic Commenter. Supports electronic brainstorming in a Topic Commenter. Supports electronic brainstorming in a structured format.structured format.
• Categorizer. Allows participants to cut-and-paste for a list or Categorizer. Allows participants to cut-and-paste for a list or reference file and refine, rearrange, categorize, and consolidate reference file and refine, rearrange, categorize, and consolidate the items from the file.the items from the file.
• Vote. Supports consensus development through group Vote. Supports consensus development through group evaluation of issues.evaluation of issues.
• Alternative Evaluation. Allows the group to weight or rate a Alternative Evaluation. Allows the group to weight or rate a list of alternatives against a list of criteria.list of alternatives against a list of criteria.
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 90
Tools (Cont.)Tools (Cont.)
• Policy Formulation. Enables groups to develop and edit a Policy Formulation. Enables groups to develop and edit a statement through an iterative process of review and revision.statement through an iterative process of review and revision.
• Group Dictionary. Supports information management by Group Dictionary. Supports information management by letting the group build, define, and store a list of terms that letting the group build, define, and store a list of terms that have the same meaning for all participants.have the same meaning for all participants.
• Briefcase. Incorporates a memory resident set of utilities (all Briefcase. Incorporates a memory resident set of utilities (all of the above) available to team members.of the above) available to team members.
• Group Outliner. Allows a group to develop a tree structure Group Outliner. Allows a group to develop a tree structure (outline)(outline)
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 91
Tools (Cont.)Tools (Cont.)
• Idea Organizer. Used for idea generation and idea organization Idea Organizer. Used for idea generation and idea organization
• Group Writer. Allows group members to create, edit, and Group Writer. Allows group members to create, edit, and annotate the same document (e.g., Lotus Notes).annotate the same document (e.g., Lotus Notes).
• Group Matrix. Allows the group to establish relationships Group Matrix. Allows the group to establish relationships between rows and columns (i.e., factors, variables, etc.) in a between rows and columns (i.e., factors, variables, etc.) in a matrix formatmatrix format
• Stakeholder Identification. Includes stakeholder identification Stakeholder Identification. Includes stakeholder identification (i.e., entity impacted by outcome), assumption surfacing, rating (i.e., entity impacted by outcome), assumption surfacing, rating of assumptions, and graphical representation of rating results.of assumptions, and graphical representation of rating results.
Turban, 1995Turban, 1995
R. Ching, Ph.D. • MIS • California State University, Sacramento 92
Sequence of UseSequence of Use
Idea GenerationIdea GenerationIdea GenerationIdea Generation
PrioritizationPrioritizationPrioritizationPrioritization
Idea OrganizerIdea OrganizerIdea OrganizerIdea Organizer
Idea GenerationIdea GenerationIdea GenerationIdea GenerationWhat is the What is the problem?problem?
Comment on Comment on ideasideas
Which are most Which are most important?important?
Electronic Electronic BrainstormingBrainstorming
Idea OrganizerIdea Organizer
VoteVote
Topic Topic CommenterCommenter
ToolsTools
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