View
1
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
QUANTITATIVE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING:
A BRIEF INTRODUCTIONWilliamsburg, VA
April 4, 2018
Xuan Nguyen, Steven R. Walk, PEGovernor’s School for Science and Technology
Hampton, VA
1
OUTLINE
● Introduce the logistic diffusion model used in QTF, one of many natural patterns shaping technology change
● Demonstrate its applications in modeling historical trajectories of technological and social change, with samples from the energy industry
● Show samples of our current Senior Mentorship student research results
2
REFERENCE: THE BELL CURVE
3
BELL CURVE SAMPLES
Employee satisfaction survey resultsat random companies.
Under the Boone and Crockett
scoring system
4
LOGISTIC GROWTH: A “BELL CURVE” IN TIME
● Often, and not commonly known, the emergence, diffusion, and saturation of a new technology follows a logistic pattern (an s-curve shape overtime
● 3 parameter mathematical model
● Extremely effective and efficient in its outcomes and applications in technological and social change
● Illuminates new insights into what defines technology, how it evolves, and the interplay of human needs and technology adoption and performance
5
LOGISTIC GROWTH IN TECHNOLOGY
6
EXPONENTIAL VS. LOGISTIC GROWTH
7
LOGISTIC EQUATION IN ITS APPLIED FORM
8
FISHER-PRY TRANSFORM
9
THE LOGISTIC MODEL IN QTF RESEARCH
● Logistic Growth - Emergence, diffusion, and saturation of technology follows a logistics pattern over time
● Substitution - New technology displaces old technology logistically
● Precursor - Change in one technology is a precursor to change in another technology
10
SUBSTITUTION
New technology displaces old technology logistically
11
PRECURSORS
● Change in one technology is a precursor to change in another technology
○ Parallel diffusion curves○ Can indicate a fixed delay or continuous coupling
12
PRECURSOR
13
ENERGY SAMPLES
The Hydrogen Future
14
ENERGY SAMPLES
15
ENERGY SAMPLES
16
SAMPLES OF OUR RESEARCH
17
SAMPLES OF OUR RESEARCH
Electric vehicle charging station technology is approaching maturity and should be fully developed in less than a decade.
18
QTF: A BRIEF INTRODUCTION
Your questions.
19
Recommended