Projected Future Climatic and Ecological Conditions in San...

ProjectedFutureClimaticandEcologicalConditionsinSanLuisObispoCounty

MarniE.Koopman,RichardS.Nauman,andJessicaL.Leonard

TheNationalCenterforConservationScienceandPolicy

April,2010

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Acollaborativeeffortby:

The MAPSS Team at the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station

Acknowledgements:RayDrapekandRonNeilsonattheUSDAForestServicePacific

NorthwestResearchStationprovidedclimateprojectiondataaswellaslogistical

support.StacyVynneoftheClimateLeadershipInitiativeandCindyDeaconWilliamsof

NCCSPofferedassistancewithwording.Wealsoappreciatetheinsightsonclimate

projectionsprovidedbyPhilMotewiththeOregonClimateChangeResearchInstitute.

ThephotooftheYuccaflowerisfromDenisKearnswhiletheotherthreecoverpictures

weregenerouslysuppliedbyJimZimmerlin.

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TABLEOFCONTENTS

Introduction 2

Modelsandtheirlimitations 2

Globalclimatechangeprojections 4

SanLuisObispoCountyclimateprojections 5

Temperature 7

Precipitation 14

Vegetationandwildfire 22

Sealevelrise 25

SupportingStudies 28

Conclusions 32

LiteratureCited 33

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INTRODUCTION

SanLuisObispoCountyisrichinhistory,culture,andbiologicaldiversity.Thecountyextendsfromsemi‐desertintheeast,acrosstheSantaLuciaMountains,throughtherollinghillsandoakwoodlandsandfinallytotheruggedcoastlinealongthewesternborder.Changestothislandscapeduetoclimatechangearelikelytoaffectnaturalecosystemsaswellaslocalresidentsandtheirlivelihoods. ClimaticchangesarealreadyunderwayacrosstheCountyandarelikelytoincreaseinthecomingdecades.Changestothelocalclimatearelikelytoincludemorefrequentandintensestormsandfloods,extendeddrought,increasedwildfire,andmoreheatwaves.ThelocalcommunitiesintheCountywillneedtoplanforsuchchangesinordertopreventpotentiallycatastrophicconsequences.Thisreportprovidescommunity‐membersanddecision‐makersinSanLuisObispoCountywithlocalclimate

changeprojectionsthatarepresentedinawaythatcanhelpthemmakeeducatedlong‐termplanningdecisions.TheclimatechangemodeloutputsinthisreportwereobtainedfromtheUSDAForestServicePacificNorthwestResearchStationandmappedbyscientistsattheNationalCenterforConservationScienceandPolicy. ClimateprojectionAmodel‐derivedestimateofthefutureclimate.ClimatepredictionorforecastAprojectionthatishighlycertainbasedonagreementamongmultiplemodels.ScenarioAcoherentandplausibledescriptionofapossiblefuturestate.Ascenariomaybedevelopedusingclimateprojectionsasthebasis,butadditionalinformation,includingbaselineconditionsanddecisionpathways,isneededtodevelopascenario.

MODELSANDTHEIRLIMITATIONS Climatechangepresentsuswithaseriouschallengeasweplanforthefuture.Ourcurrentplanningstrategiesatallscales(local,regional,andnational)relyonhistoricaldatatoanticipatefutureconditions.Duetoclimatechangeanditsassociatedimpacts,however,thefutureisnolongerexpectedtoresemblethepast.

Todeterminewhatconditionswemightexpectinthefuture,climatologistscreatedmodelsbasedonphysical,chemical,andbiologicalprocessesthatformtheearth’sclimatesystem.Thesemodelsvaryintheirlevelofdetailandassumptions,makingoutputandfuturescenariosvariable.Differencesamongmodels

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stemfromanincompleteunderstandingofmanyofEarth’sprocessesandfeedbacks.Takenasagroup,however,climatemodelspresentarangeofpossiblefutureconditions.

Mostclimatemodelsarecreatedatglobalscales,butaredifficulttoapplyatlocalorregionalscalesbecauseglobalmodeloutputdoesnotreflectregionalorlocalvariationinclimate.Formanagersandpolicymakerstomakedecisionsatthesefinerscales,theyneedinformationabouthowclimatechangewillimpactthelocalarea.TheMAPSS(MappedAtmosphere‐Plant‐SoilSystem)TeamatthePacificNorthwestResearchStationadjustedglobalmodelresultstolocalandregionalscales.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)usesnumerousmodelstomakeglobalclimateprojections.Themodelsaredevelopedbydifferentinstitutionsandcountriesandhaveslightlydifferentinputsorassumptions.Fromthesemodels,theMAPSSTeamchosethreeglobalclimatemodelsthatrepresentedarangeofprojectionsfortemperatureandotherclimatevariables.ThesethreemodelsareHadley(HADCM,fromtheUK),MIROC(fromJapan),andCSIRO(fromAustralia).Whilethespecificinputsarebeyondthescopeofthisreport,theyincludesuchvariablesasgreenhousegasemissions,airandoceancurrents,iceandsnowcover,plantgrowth,particulatematter,andmanyothers(Randalletal.2007).Thethreemodelschosenincludedspecificvariables,suchaswatervapor,thatwereneededinordertoruntheMC1vegetationmodel.Modeloutputswereconvertedtolocalscalesusinglocaldataonrecenttemperatureandprecipitationpatterns.TheclimatemodeloutputwasappliedtotheMC1vegetation

Howcertainaretheprojections?

HIGHCERTAINTY:Highertemperatures–Greaterconcentrationsofgreenhousegasestrapmoreheat.Measuredwarmingtracksmodelprojections.Lowersnowpack–Highertemperaturescauseashiftfromsnowtorainatlowerelevationsandcauseearliersnowmeltathigherelevations.Shiftingdistributionsofplants&animals–Relationshipsbetweenspeciesdistributionsandclimatearewelldocumented.MEDIUMCERTAINTY:Morefrequentstorms–Changestostormpatternswillberegionallyvariable.Changesinprecipitation–Currentmodelsshowwidedisagreementonprecipitationpatterns,butthemodelprojectionsconvergeinsomelocations.LOWCERTAINTY:Changesinvegetation–Vegetationmaytakedecadesorcenturiestokeeppacewithchangesinclimate.Changesinrunoff–Currentmodelsofrunoffareunsophisticatedandbasedonhistoricalconditions.Uncertaintyinprecipitation,landuse,andshiftingvegetationalsocontributetotheuncertaintyinrunoffpatterns.Wildfirepatterns–Manyuncertaincomponents,includingvegetation,treepestsanddisease,andprecipitationwillimpactfirepatterns.

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model(Bacheletetal.2001),whichprovideddataonpossiblefuturevegetationtypesandextentofwildfire.Theutilityofthemodelresultspresentedinthisreportistohelpcommunitiespicturewhattheconditionsandlandscapemaylooklikeinthefutureandthemagnitudeanddirectionofchange.Becausemodeloutputsvaryintheirdegreeofcertainty,theyareconsideredprojectionsratherthanpredictions(seeboxonpage2).Somemodeloutputs,suchastemperature,havegreatercertaintythanotheroutputs,suchasvegetationtypeorrunoff(seeboxonpreviouspage).

Weurgethereadertokeepinmindthatthesemodelresultsarepresentedtoexplorethetypesofchangeswemaysee,butthatactualconditionsmaybequitedifferentfromthosedepictedinthisreport.Uncertaintyassociatedwithprojectionsoffutureconditionsshouldnotbeusedasareasonfordelayingactiononclimatechange.Thelikelihoodthatfutureconditionswillresemblehistoricconditionsisverylow,somanagersandpolicymakersareencouragedtobegintoplanforaneraofchange,eveniftheprecisetrajectoryofsuchchangeisuncertain.

GLOBALCLIMATECHANGEPROJECTIONS

TheIPCC(2007)andtheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram(2009)agreethattheevidenceis“unequivocal”thattheEarth’satmosphereandoceansarewarming,andthatthiswarmingisdueprimarilytohumanactivitiesincludingtheemissionofCO2,methane,andothergreenhousegases,alongwithdeforestation.Averageglobalairtemperaturehasalreadyincreasedby0.7°C(1.4°F)andisexpectedtoincreaseby2°‐6.4°C(11.5°F)withinthenextcentury(Figure1).TheIPCCemissionscenariousedinthisassessmentwasthe“business‐as‐usual”trajectorythatassumesthatmostnationsfailtoacttoloweremissions.Thecurrentgrowthinemissionsactuallyexceedstheassumedgrowthinthismodeled

Figure 1. The last 1000 years in global mean temperature, in comparison to projected temperature for 2100. Drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would lead to an increase of about 2ºC by 2100 while the current trajectory will lead to an increase closer to 4.5º C and as high as 6º C (adapted from IPCC 2007).

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scenario,meaningthattheresultspresentedinthisreportcouldunderestimateactualimpacts.Duetoclimatesysteminertia,restabilizationofatmosphericgaseswilltakemanydecadesevenwithdrasticemissionsreductions.ReducingemissionsisvitaltopreventtheEarth’sclimatesystemfromreachingcertaintippingpointsthat

willleadtosuddenandirrevocablechanges.Inadditiontoemissionsreductions,planningforinevitablechangestriggeredbygreenhousegasesalreadypresentintheatmospherewillallowresidentsofSanLuisObispoCountytoreducethenegativeimpactsofclimatechangeand,hopefully,maintaintheirquality‐of‐lifeasclimatechangeprogresses.

SANLUISOBISPOCOUNTYCLIMATEPROJECTIONS VariablesmodeledusingHADCM,CSIRO,andMIROC,andthevegetationmodel(MC1)includetemperature,precipitation,vegetationtypeanddistribution,andannualpercentofthelandscapeburned.Thesevariableswerecalculatedbasedonhistoricaldataformakingbaselinecomparisons,andwereprojectedoutto2100.Again,theseprojectionsareuncertain,becauseofthedifferentassumptionsbythemodels,buttheyrepresentalikelyrangeofpossiblefutureconditionsinSanLuisObispoCounty.Asclimatechangeplaysout,wearelikelytogainabetterunderstandingofinteractionsandtheclimatesystemsandbeabletomakemore

certainprojections‐however,wemayalsoseesurprisesandunforeseenchainsofcause‐and‐effectthatcouldnothavebeenprojected.Climatechangeprojectionsareprovidedhereinthreedifferentformats–asoverallaverages,astimeseriesgraphsthatshowchangeovertime(averagedacrosstheCounty),andasmapsthatshowvariationacrosstheCounty,butaveragedacrossyears.Wemappedclimateandvegetationvariablesforthehistoricalperiod(1961‐1990)andfortwofuture11‐yearperiods(2035‐45and2075‐85).

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Figure2.LandownershipinSanLuisObispoCounty.

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TEMPERATURETheprojectionsfromallthreemodelsagree,withhighcertainty,onawarmerfutureforSanLuisObispoCounty(Table1).

Table1.ProjectedincreaseinaveragetemperatureinSanLuisObispoCounty,fromthreedifferentglobalclimatemodels,basedonahistoricannualaverageof58.3°F(14.6°C)from1961‐1990,ahistoricsummeraverageof69.9°F(21.1°C),andahistoricwinteraverageof47.3°F(8.5°C)

TEMPERATURE 2035‐2045 2075‐2085AnnualJun‐AugDec‐Feb

+2.1to+3.9°F(+1.2to+2.2°C)+1.8to+4.7°F(+1.0to+2.6°C)+1.7to+3.6°F(+1.0to+2.0°C)

+4.1to+7.6°F(+2.3to+4.2°C)+4.3to+8.9°F(+1.0to+2.6°C)+3.4to+7.0°F(+1.9to+3.9°C)

Figure4.AveragemonthlytemperatureacrossSanLuisObispoCounty.Futureprojectionsareaveragedacrossthethreeglobalclimatemodelsfortwodifferenttimeperiods:2035‐45(purpleline)and2075‐85(redline).Thefullrangeofprojectionsfromallthreemodelsisshowninorange.

Figure3.AverageannualtemperatureacrossSanLuisObispoCountyfrom1901to2000(measuredhistorical)andprojectedthrough2100usingthreeglobalclimatemodels.

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Figure5.Januarytemperature(indegreesC)acrossSanLuisObispoCounty.

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Figure6.Apriltemperature(indegreesC)acrossSanLuisObispoCounty.

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Figure7.Julytemperature(indegreesC)acrossSanLuisObispoCounty.

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Figure8.Octobertemperature(indegreesC)acrossSanLuisObispoCounty.

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Figure9.Temperaturechange(indegreesC)acrossSanLuisObispoCountyinJanuaryandApril.

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Figure10.Temperaturechange(indegreesC)acrossSanLuisObispoCountyinJulyandOctober.

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PRECIPITATIONProjectionsforfutureprecipitationvariedsubstantiallyamongthethreemodels,withMIROCgenerallyprovidingdrierprojectionsthanHADCMandCSIRO.InaseriesofreportsreleasedbytheCaliforniaEnergyCommission,asetofsixmodelsshowedconsensusonadrierclimateforCentralCalifornia(Westerlingetal.2009).Further,evenwithsubstantialincreasesinprecipitation,soilmoistureisexpectedtodeclineduetoincreasedtemperatureandevaporation. Table2.ProjectedchangeinprecipitationinSanLuisObispoCounty,fromthreeglobalclimatemodels,basedonahistoricannualaverageof395.9mmfrom1961‐1990,ahistoricsummeraverageof1.4mmpermonthandahistoricwinteraverageof70.6mmpermonth.Precipitation 2035‐2045 2075‐2085

AnnualJun‐AugDec‐Feb

‐106.7to+38.6mm(‐27%to+25%)‐0.4to+0.0mm(‐26%to+2%)

‐14.6to+33.5mm(‐21%to+47%)

‐120.2to+22.4mm(‐30.4%to+5.6%)‐0.4to+0.3mm(‐29%to+24%)

‐26.1to+10.7mm(‐37%to+15%)

Figure11.Averageannualprecipitation(mm)acrossSanLuisObispoCounty.Onaverage,HADCMshowsaslightlywetterfuturewhileMIROCandCSIROshowadrierfuture.

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Figures12‐13.Totalmonthlyaverageprecipitation(below)andpercentchangeinprecipitation(right)forthetimeperiodof2035‐2045,ascomparedtohistoric(1961‐1990).

Figures14‐15.Totalmonthlyaverageprecipitation(below)andpercentchangeinprecipitation(right)forthetimeperiodof2075‐2085,ascomparedtohistoric(1961‐1990).

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Figure16.Januaryprecipitation(inmillimeters)acrossSanLuisObispoCounty.

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Figure17.Aprilprecipitation(inmillimeters)acrossSanLuisObispoCounty.

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Figure18.Julyprecipitation(inmillimeters)acrossSanLuisObispoCounty.

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Figure19.Octoberprecipitation(inmillimeters)acrossSanLuisObispoCounty.

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Figure20.Precipitationchange(inmillimeters)acrossSanLuisObispoCountyinJanuaryandApril.

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Figure21.Precipitationchange(inmillimeters)acrossSanLuisObispoCountyinJulyandOctober.

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VEGETATIONandWILDFIRETheMAPSSteamvegetationmodel(MC1)providedprojectionsforpredominantvegetationtypes(Figure22)andproportionoftheareaburnedannuallybywildfire(Figure23).Projectionsforchangesinvegetationtypesincludealossofneedleleafforestathigherelevations,alossoftemperateshrublandineasternportionsoftheCounty,andexpansionofsubtropicalgrasslands.(Themodeldoesnotreflectthedominanceofnon‐nativegrassesinthearea.)Despitechangedgrowingconditions,vegetationcantakedecadesorcenturiestoadjust.Mechanismsforvegetationchangearelikelytobedrought,fire,invasivespecies,insectsanddisease.AccordingtoMC1output,theannualpercentageoftheCountyburnedbywildfireisexpectedtoincreasefromahistoricalaverageof3.7%to6.8‐7.3%by2035‐45and8.1‐8.5%by2075‐85.Thistranslatestoupto311mi2burned,onaverage,peryear(Figure23).Similarly,Westerlingetal.(2009)alsoprojectedsubstantialincreasesinareaburnedbywildfire,withmuchofSanLuisObispoCountyexpectedtoexperience200‐350%increaseinacreageburnedby2085ascomparedtothehistoric(1961‐1990)amount.

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Figure22.Suitablegrowingconditionsfordominanttypesofvegetation.

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Figure23.Averageproportionofeachgridcell(8kmx8km)burnedannuallyinSanLuisObispoCounty,shownforthehistoricalperiod(1961‐1990)andprojectedfortwofutureperiods(2035‐45and2075‐85),usingtwoglobalclimatemodels(MIROCandHADCM;resultsfromCSIROwereunavailable).

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SEALEVELRISESealevelhasrisennearlyeightinchesalongtheCaliforniacoastoverthepastcentury.Climatemodelsprojectfurtherincreasesof3.3–4.6feet(1.0–1.4meters)bytheyear21001(Cayanetal.2009).Theprimarythreatsassociatedwithsealevelriseincludeflooding,erosion,andlossofvaluablecoastallandanduniquehabitats.Hebergeretal.(2009)conductedaroughGISexercisethatidentifiedsomeareasofpotentialhighriskfromsealevelrisealongtheentireCaliforniacoast.Basedonthisanalysis,whichhasnotbeenground‐truthed,SanLuisObispoCountysupports6.1mi2ofexistingcoastalwetlands.Assealevelrises,thesewetlandsareexpectedtomigrateinland,potentiallycovering1.1mi2ofnewterrain.ThePacificInstitutemappedtheareawherewetlandsareexpectedtomigrate,anddeterminedthat69%isviableformigratingwetlandsandshouldbeprotectedtoallowforsuchshifts.Anadditional7%oftheareawherewetlandsmightmigrateisviablebutwillexperiencelossofotherfunctions,suchaspasture,parks,oropenspace.Theremaining24%oftheareahasinfrastructuremakingitunfeasibleforwetlandstomigrate.ThePacificInstitutemappedareasofpotentialflooding,erosion,andwetlandmigrationalongtheentirecoastofCalifornia.Thesemapscanbefoundontheirwebsite(http://www.pacinst.org/reports/sea_level_rise/maps/index.htm).Substantialareasofthecoastareatriskoferosion,includingMorroRockBeach(Figure24)andAvilaBeach(Figure25).TheGISassessmentofsealevelriseisavaluablefirststeptowardsidentifyingareasatriskalongthecoast.Moredetailedspatialanalysesthatincludeactualwetlandareaandtypedataareneededtobetteridentifyareasandresourcesatrisk.Betterprojectionsofsealevelrisearealsoneeded,assealevelrisemodeloutputishighlyvariable.

1 Meansealevelmayactuallybemuchhigher,asmostclimatemodelsfailtoincorporateGreenlandandAntarcticicesheetmeltintotheirprojections.

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Figures24and25.Examplesofareasatriskoferosion(green)from4.6ft.(1.4m)sealevelrise(Hebergeretal.2009).

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Figures26and27.Examplesofareasatriskoffloodingcurrently(lightblue)andwith4.6ft.(1.4m)sealevelrise(magenta)(Hebergeretal.2009).

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Figures28and29.Examplesofareaswherewetlandsmaymigrate(blue)with4.6ft.(1.4m)sealevelrise(Hebergeretal.2009).

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SUPPORTINGSTUDIES

TheCaliforniaEnergyCommissionsponsoredalargebodyofresearchintothepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeacrossthestate.Manyofthereportsfromthiseffortwerereleasedin2009.Forconsistency,authorsofthesereportsallusedthesamesetofglobalclimatemodelsformakingtheirprojections,butthesemodelsweredifferentthanthethreethatweusedearlierinthisreport.Evenwithdifferentmodels,however,theresultsfrommanyofthesereportsagreewithorcomplementourresults,givingusevengreaterconfidenceintheprojections.Usingthesamevegetationmodel(MC1)butdifferentclimatemodelsthanours,Shawetal.(2009)alsoprojectsadeclineinconiferousforestinSanLuisObispoCounty.Inaddition,theirstudyprojectedsteepdeclinesinforageproductioninthenortheasternandeasternportionofthecounty(Figure30).Inanotherstudy,independentoftheCECreports,Loarieetal.(2008)modeledpotentialrangeshiftsofendemicplantspeciesthroughoutCalifornia.Themodelingexerciserevealedthatupto1/3ofallspecieswillbeextirpatediftheyareunabletomovetonewareas,butthatthecoastalrangesofCentralCalifornia,includingsubstantialareasofSLOCounty,areexpectedtobeimportantrefugesfornumerousspecies(Figure31).Kueppersetal.(2005)modeledshiftsinrangefortwospeciesofoak:blueoakandvalleyoak,throughoutthestate,usingtwodifferentclimatemodels(oneregionalandoneglobal).Theirresultsindicatedthatvalleyoakhasahigherlikelihoodofpersistencethanblueoak(Figure32).BothoaksexperiencedrangecontractionsinSanLuisObispoCountyby2080‐2099,accordingtothemodels,withvalleyoakexperiencingalmostcompletedeclineinoneofthetwomodelscenarios.

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Figure30.Netchangeinforageproductionby2070‐2099,basedontwoclimatemodelsundertheA2emissionsscenario.Orangeorbrownrepresentadeclineinforageproductionwhilebluerepresentsandincreaseinforageproduction.(FigurefromShawetal.2009)

Figure31.Projectedpresentplantdiversity(left)andplantdiversity80yearsfromnowbasedontwoclimatemodels(PCM–middleandHADCM3–right)usingtheA1F1emissionsscenarioandassumingthatplantswillbeabletodispersetonewareas.Coastalareas,suchasthoseinSLOCounty,maybeespeciallyimportantforharboringdiversity.(FigurefromLoarieetal.2008)

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Figure32.ShiftsindistributionfortwospeciesofoakinCalifornia:valleyoakandblueoak.Blueoak(AandB)isexpectedtodeclinethroughoutSanLuisObispoCounty,accordingtobothmodels,withsteeperdeclineswiththeClimateSystemModel(CSM)GCM(B)ascomparedtotheregionalmodelRegCM2.5(A).Valleyoak(CandD)isexpectedtocontractinSanLuisObispobutstillpersistacrossmuchofitscurrentrangeaccordingtoboththeregional(C)andglobal(D)models.FigurefromKueppersetal.(2005).

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CONCLUSIONS

Thepurposeofthisreportistoprovideup‐to‐dateclimateprojectionsforSanLuisObispoCountyatascalethatcanbeusedincommunityplanningefforts.Byprovidingtheinformationthatlocalmanagers,decision‐makersandcommunitymembersneedtomakeday‐to‐daydecisionsandlong‐termplans,wehopetospurproactiveclimatechangepreparationplanning.Manyoftheimpactsofclimatechangearealreadyprogressingandwillcontinuetoacceleratethroughoutthenextfewdecades,regardlessoffutureemissions.Forinstance,ourprojectionsforthetimeperiodof2035‐2045arehighlylikelytobecomereality.Whetherwelimitclimatechangetothislevelorcontinuetoprogresstowardsthelevelprojectedfor2075‐2085,andbeyond,willdependonwhethertheU.S.andotherkeynationschoosetoloweremissionsdrasticallyandimmediately.TheprojectionsprovidedinthisreportareintendedtoformthefoundationforSanLuisObispoCountyadaptationplanningforclimatechange.Ourprogram,calledtheClimateWiseprogram,strivestobuildco‐beneficialplanningstrategiesthatarescience‐based,aredevelopedbylocalcommunitymembers,andincreasetheresilienceofbothhumanandnaturalcommunitiestoclimatechangeinacohesivemanner.Thisprocesswilltakeplaceinaseriesofworkshopsinvolvingexpertsinthefollowingsectors:naturalecosystems(bothterrestrialandaquatic),built(infrastructure,culverts,etc.),human(health,emergencyresponse,etc.),economic(agriculture,business,etc.)andcultural(NativeAmericantribalcustomsandrights,otherculturallydistinctlocalcommunities).TheClimateWiseprogramisstructuredtobegintheplanningprocessinlocalcommunities,butthento“scaleup”managementstrategiestothestateandfederallevelbyidentifyingneededchangesinpolicyandgovernancestructure.Duringthelocalplanningprocess,expertsfromdifferentsectorswillidentifybarrierstosoundmanagement,allowingustoaddresstheselimitingfactorsbyeducatinglawmakersandinfluencingpolicydecisions.PleasecontactMarniKoopmanattheNationalCenterforConservationScienceandPolicyformoreinformation(marni@nccsp.org;541‐482‐4459x303).

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