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Project Goal
• Quantify improved network efficiency and economic benefits due to changes in:– Access to Labor Pool– Access to Intermediate
Product Pool – Transportation Costs &
Delivered Prices
Financing and Return on Investment
• Effect of Federal, State, & Local Spending
• Bonding• Evaluate Alternative
Funding Scenarios: – Gas tax versus Sales Tax– Multiple Funding Sources – Sensitivity Analysis
Framework and Analysis Approach
Washington DOT Project Method
• Calibrate REMI Fiscal Module to 2004 Fiscal Year State Budget– “Overview of the Washington
Tax System: Part 1”, 2004
• Collect Travel Data: VMT, VHT, & Trips – By mode: Auto & Truck
• Bus and Passenger Train also available
– By time of day– Provided by Emme/2 simulations
• Modeling construction phase – Engineering– Construction– Long-term Maintenance
• Model funding “cocktail”– Local Gas Tax– “Nickel Gas Tax”: State Wide Gas
Tax– 2005 Partnership Tax: $0.095
State wide Gas Tax
3
Investment Alternatives: Interstate or State Road
• An interstate capacity improvement project that involved roadway widening, interchange, park and ride lots, and transit improvements
• A highway extension project that would connect two major state highways, filling the missing link
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5
Travel Model Results: Annual VHT, VMT, & Speed % Change from No Build Scenario from
1999 to 2030 - Interstate
6
Travel Model Results: Annual VHT, VMT, & Speed % Change from No Build Scenario from
1999 to 2030 – State Road
Interstate• 2003 to 2006 the first phase involves
engineering and planning services (increased demand for professional technical service) $168 Million
• 2007 to 2015 construction begins.– Total cost: $3.0 Billion
• Travel benefits begin phasing in from 2013• Beginning 2004, nickel tax budgeted for
Interstate equals $485 Million, which is allocated to an increase in consumer prices in gasoline for the 10-year period
• Local Gas Tax increase generates $1.741 Billion (2003- 2015)
• “2005 Partnership Funding Package”: By 2030 the tax will generate $972 Million
State Road• 2003 to 2006 the first phase involves
engineering and planning services (increased demand for professional technical service) $36 Million
• 2007 to 2015 construction begins.– Total cost: $960 Million
• Travel benefits begin phasing in from 2013• Beginning 2004, nickel tax budgeted for
State Road equals $35 million, which is allocated to an increase in consumer prices in gasoline for the 10-year period
• Local Gas Tax increase generates $913 Million (2003-2015)
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Timelines
Timeline for I-405 and SR-509
Planning andEngineering:2003 - 2006
Construction:2007 - 2015
Nickel Tax:2004 - 2030
2005 Transportation PartnershipFunding Package: 2005 – 2030Tax Phase-In from $0.03 to $0.095from 2005 t0 2009
Transportation ImprovementBenefits Accrue: 2015 - 2040
Local Gas Tax: 2003 - 2015
Spending and Agglomeration
Taxes and Financing
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Maintenance Schedules
FacilityPerio
dCost per Unit Units
Total Cost (thous
)
PCC Rehab
30$20,000 Per Lane
Mi43.3 $866.00
ACP Rehab
15$7,400 Per Lane
Mi30.8 $227.92
Maintenance
annual$11,500 Per Lane
Mi74.1 $852.15
Bridge 10 $0.34 Per SqFt 1,797,374 $611.11
Spec Br n/a $0.78 Per SqFt 0 $0.00
Tunnels n/a$132.50 Per Lane
Ft0 $0.00
Short Lids annual $0.17 Per SqFt 0 $0.00
FacilityPerio
dCost per Unit Units
Total Cost
(thous)
PCC Rehab 30 $20,000 Per Ln
Mi40.2 $804.00
ACP Rehab 15$7,400 Per Ln
Mi7.7 $56.98
Maintenance
annual$11,500 Per Ln
Mi47.9 $550.85
Bridge 10 $0.34 Per SF 628,269 $213.61
Spec Br n/a $0.78 Per SF 0 $0.00
Tunnels n/a $132.50 Per LF 0 $0.00
Short Lids annual $0.17 Per SF 274,400 $46.65
Interstate
State Road
Interstate State Road
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Funding Shares
Jobs in Thousands
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Investment Period
Transportation Benefits Accrue
Employment Distribution- Services
12
GRP in Millions in Central Puget Sound Region
Major Spending and taxes begin
Sales in Millions in Central Puget Sound Region
Major Spending and taxes begin
Population in Thousands
Construction Phase
Phase InEngineering &Benefits
Labor Force in Thousands
Construction Phase
Phase InEngineering &Benefits
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Overall Results – Both Scenarios
Interst
ateState Road
Employment 4,219 2,617
GSP 0.885 0.625
Total Sales 1.49 1.05
Interst
ate State Road
Total GSP 31.8 22.5
Total Disposable Income 0.985 0.309
Total Sales 53.7 37.8
Totals from 2005 to 2040 - AggregateAverage Annual Growth 2005 to 2040
* All in Billions of 2004$
Economic Benefit Cost Ratio
Economic Benefit/Cost Conclusion
• Captures direct, induced, and intermediate benefits and costs
• Dynamic year by year estimates until 2040, impact analysis and forecast available to 2050
• GSP, which represents the economic growth and inherently includes the impacts of new business, income, and consumption reported in dollar terms.
• Costs, which include the total direct project financing, operation, and maintenance expenditures.
• Emissions and safety treated as regional disamenities, because the increase in VMT drives the EPA’s Mobile6 and Part5 estimates and FHWA’s accident rates.
• As the economic benefits accrue over the next few years, the overall benefit cost ratio by 2030 is 6.31 for State Road versus 2.73 for Interstate.
• State Road maintains a gap of approximately 2.3 times that of Interstate for most of the future years.
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