Prof Jim Hall University of Oxfordisngi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Jim-Hall.pdf · Delivering...

Delivering the ‘modelled world’ of infrastructure

Prof Jim HallUniversity of Oxford

1. A shared set of spatial scenarios

ITRC Scenarios

Population

Economy

Climate

Implications for infrastructure

1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system

models

NISMOD-LPSystem-of-systems model for long term planning

Flood risk management

Metrics of infrastructure performance

Service quality e.g. reliability and security

AffordabilityExternalities e.g.

environmental impact

NISMOD-RVPinpointing vulnerability and quantifying risk

Customers

Assets

Sub-systems

Systems

System-of-systems

Gas

ICT

Water

Electricity

Transportation

Waste

• Systems model• High resolution• Multi-scale• Interdependencies

Multi-Scale Structure

1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system

models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent

failures

NISMOD-RV: National model of infrastructure riskand vulnerability

Flooding in the Thames Valley in 2014

SAGEScientific Advisory Group for Emergencies

Transport systems vulnerability

1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system

models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent

failures4. Extending to regional and macro-economic

impacts

Extending to regional and macro-economic impacts

Employment disruption during infrastructure failure

UK-wide economic impact

1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system

models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent

failures4. Extending to regional and macro-economic

impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring

the scenario space

Scenarios for water scarcity

1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system

models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent

failures4. Extending the envelope to regional and macro-

economic impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring

the scenario space6. Exploring trade-offs and impacts

Cost of plan

PV(Capex+Opex)

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Low risk, low

cost plans

Tolerable risk threshold

Exploring trade-offs

1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system

models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent

failures4. Extending the envelope to regional and macro-

economic impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring

the scenario space6. Exploring trade-offs and impacts7. Analysing decision pathways

Analysing decision pathways

National water infrastructure pathways

1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system

models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent

failures4. Extending the envelope to regional and macro-

economic impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring

the scenario space6. Exploring trade-offs and impacts7. Analysing decision pathways8. Exploring the roles of multiple actors

Multiple actors and governance arrangements

Where will digital connectivity be provided in a competitive market?

How will the housing market adjust to new infrastructure

1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system

models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent failures4. Extending the envelope to regional and macro-

economic impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring the

scenario space6. Exploring trade-offs and impacts7. Analysing decision pathways8. Exploring the roles of multiple actors9. Full recoverability of results and data provenance

NISMOD-DB

1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system

models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent failures4. Extending the envelope to regional and macro-

economic impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring the

scenario space6. Exploring trade-offs and impacts7. Analysing decision pathways8. Exploring the roles of multiple actors9. Full recoverability of results and data provenance

MISTRALMulti-scale Infrastructure Systems Analytics

The aim of the MISTRAL programme is to develop and demonstrate a highly integrated analytics capability to inform strategic infrastructure decision making across scales, from local to global.

MISTRAL will thereby radically extend the ITRC’s pioneering infrastructure systems analysis capability:

• Downscale: from ITRC’s pioneering representation of national networks to the UK’s 25.7 million households and 5.2 million businesses, representing the infrastructure services they demand and the multi-scale networks through which these services are delivered.

• Upscale: from the national perspective to incorporate global interconnections via telecommunications, transport and energy networks.

• Across-scale: to other national settings outside the UK, where infrastructure needs are greatest and where systems analysis represents a business opportunity for UK engineering firms.

Challenge 1: The local complexity of national infrastructure

• Household scale demographic simulation

• Building characterisation

• Street-scale network representation

• Distributed renewables and storage

• Heat and hydrogen networks

• Explicit representation of the transport network

• Local flood and drainage simulation

• Solid waste transport and processing

• Mapping of digital services and needs

• Spatial allocation of infrastructure

High resolution at a national scale

Informing local innovation and devolved governance of infrastructure

Challenge 2: National infrastructure in an inter-connected world

Global interconnection of UK infrastructure:

• Energy

• Transport

• Digital communications

• Solid waste

Global network analysis

Analysis of infrastructure risks globally

NISMOD-Int: A transferrable platform for infrastructure assessment

DAFNI: the Data and Analytics Facility for National Infrastructure

DAFNI is an £8million new national research facility for infrastructure systems analysis, modelling, simulation, visualisation and decision support

DAFNI will be comprised of:

1. The national infrastructure database

2. National infrastructure modelling, simulation and visualisation facilities

DAFNI will be delivered by STFC and hosted at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Harwell

Additional investment in computer hardware (including visualisation facilities) within UKCRIC partner universities will help to optimise the use of DAFNI

The National Infrastructure DatabaseDAFNI will provide • a secure facility for assembling, hosting and

creating datasets on infrastructure assets and networks and the human and natural environments in which they are located.

• management of licence arrangements, and a commitment to Open Data, as far as possible

• tiered security arrangements• metadata listing

The National infrastructure modelling, simulation and visualisation facilitiesThe DAFNI modelling and simulation platform will provide an e-science environment that will:

• interface with the National Infrastructure Database

• provide many-task computing facilities

• facilitate coupling of simulation modules to enable system-of-systems simulation

• link with visualisation facilities to enablescrutiny and communication of complexand high dimensional simulation results.

DAFNI Delivery and operation plan• Consultation on requirements during Year 1

• Initial hardware investment

• Pilot projects, starting with the migration of NISMODv1 to DAFNI

• ‘Crowding in’ of models and datasets

• A growing number of users in industry and government

• A sustainable long term business model will be put in place for operation, maintenance and upgrade of DAFNI from 2021

Delivering the ‘modelled world’ of infrastructure

Prof Jim HallUniversity of Oxford