Primary Energy Demand (PJ)€¦ · PJ Final Energy demand by fuel (PJ) Others Heat Biosolids /...

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Primary Energy Demand (PJ)

Imported electricity

Nuclear electricity

Coal

Imported refined oil

Oil

Natural Gas

Biomass and waste

Renewable electricity

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000P

J

Final Energy demand by fuel (PJ) Others

Heat

Biosolids / waste

Manufactured fuel

Bio diesels

Ethanol/Methanol

Hydrogen

Jet fuel

Coal

LPG

Fuel oil / bio-oil

Diesel

Petrol

Gas / biomethane

Electricity

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

PJ

Final Energy demand by Sector

Non-energy use

Transport

Services

Residential

Industry

Agriculture

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

PJ

Use of conservation

Industry

Service

Residential

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80P

J

Electricity storage

Pumped hydro

Hydrogen storage

Plug-in hybrid

Storage heaters

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mt-

CO

2

Sectoral Emissions

Other Emissions

Transport

Services

Residential

Industry

Hydrogen

Electricity

Agriculture

Upstream

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

Mt-

CO

2

Enduse Sectoral Emissions

Non-energy use

Transport

Services

Residential

Industry

Agriculture

Upstream

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

£()

20

00

)/t-

CO

2

Marginal cost of CO2

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Bill

ion

£ (

20

00

) Undiscounted energy system cost

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0B

Vkm

Car fleets

Car - Methanol

Car - Hydrogen

Car - Battery

Car - E85

Car - Petrol Plug-in

Car - Petrol Hybrid

Car - Petrol ICE

Car - Diesel/biodiesel Plug-in

Car - Diesel/biodiesel Hybrid

Car - Diesel/biodiesel ICE

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0B

Vkm

Bus fleets

Bus - Methanol

Bus - Hydrogen

Bus - Battery

Bus - Diesel/biodiesel Hybrid

Bus - Diesel/biodiesel ICE

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0B

Vkm

HGV fleet

HGV - Hydrogen

HGV - Diesel/biodieselHybrid

HGV - Diesel/biodiesel

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0B

vKm

LGV fleets LGV - Methanol

LGV - Hydrogen

LGV - Battery

LGV - Petrol Plug-in

LGV - Petrol Hybrid

LGV - Petrol

LGV - E85

LGV - Diesel/biodiesel Plug-in

LGV - Diesel/biodiesel Hybrid

LGV - Diesel/biodiesel

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

BV

km

Two-wheelers fleet

TW - Hydrogen

TW - Electricity

TW - Petrol

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2B

Vkm

Rail fleet

Rail - Hydrogen

Rail - Electricity

Rail - Diesel/biodiesel

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

PJ

Transport fuel demand

Ethanol/methanol

Bio-diesel/kerosene

Jet fuel

Hydrogen

Electricity

Diesel

Petrol

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000P

J

Generation by plant type

Storage

CHPs

Non-base load

Base load

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140G

W Installed capacity by plant type

Storage

CHPs

Non-base load

Base load

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

PJ

Car fuel demand Car - Methanol

Car - Hydrogen

Car - Battery

Car - E85

Car - Petrol Plug-in

Car - Petrol Hybrid

Car - Petrol ICE

Car - Diesel/biodiesel Plug-in

Car - Diesel/biodiesel Hybrid

Car - Diesel/biodiesel ICE

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

PJ

Bus fuel demand Bus - Methanol

Bus - Hydrogen

Bus - Battery

Bus - Diesel/biodiesel Hybrid

Bus - Diesel/biodiesel ICE

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450P

J HGV fuel demand

HGV - Hydrogen

HGV - Diesel/biodiesel Hybrid

HGV - Diesel/biodiesel

-

50

100

150

200

250

300P

J

LGV fuel demand LGV - Methanol

LGV - Hydrogen

LGV - Battery

LGV - Petrol Plug-in

LGV - Petrol Hybrid

LGV - Petrol

LGV - E85

LGV - Diesel/biodiesel Plug-in

LGV - Diesel/biodiesel Hybrid

LGV - Diesel/biodiesel

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9P

J

Two-wheeler fuel demand

TW - Hydrogen

TW - Electricity

TW - Petrol

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90P

J

Rail fuel demand

Rail - Hydrogen

Rail - Electricity

Rail - Diesel/biodiesel

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

% r

ed

uc

tio

n f

rom

ba

se

Industry and agriculture demand reductions

Industry - Chemicals Industry - Iron & steel Industry - Non ferrous metals

Industry - Others Industry - Paper & pulp Agriculture

-25.00%

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

% r

ed

uct

ion

fro

m b

ase

Residential demand reductions

Residential - Electricity Residential - Cooling Residential - Cooking

Residential - Refrigeration Residential - Heating Residential - Hot-water

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

% r

ed

uc

tio

n f

rom

ba

se

Service demand reductions

Services - Lighting Services - Refrigeration Services - Cooking Services - Cooling

Services - Other electrical Services - Heating Services - Hot-water

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

% r

ed

uct

ion

fro

m b

ase

Transport demand reduction

Transport - Air domestic Transport - Bus Transport - Car

Transport - Rail freight Transport - HGV Transport - Air International

Transport - LGV Transport - Int'l Shipping Transport - Rail passenger

Transport - Shipping Transport - Two wheeler

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bill

ion

£2

00

0

Consumer+Producer Surplus

Change in consumer + producersurplus

Change in energy system costs

Decrease in area under demandcurve

Increase in area under demandcurve

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70P

J

Aviation fuel demand

Air - Bio-Kerosene

Air - Hydrogen

Air - Jet fuel

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4B

Vkm

Aviation fleet

Air (int) - Hydrogen

Air (int) - Jet fuel-biokeroseneAir - Hydrogen

Air - Jet fuel-biokerosene

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ

Bio-products in final energy

Industry

Residential

Service

Transport

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800P

J

Sectoral electricity demands (PJ)

Upstreams

Transport

Service

Residential

Industry

Hydrogen

Agriculture

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PJ

Electricity generation mix

Storage

Solar PV

Marine

Imports

Biowaste & others

Wind

Hydro

Oil

Nuclear

Biomass CCS

Gas CCS

Gas

Coal CCS

Cofiring CCS

Cofiring

Coal

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GW

Installed electric capacity

Storage

Solar PV

Marine

Imports

Biowaste & others

Wind

Hydro

Oil

Nuclear

Biomass CCS

Gas CCS

Gas

Coal CCS

Cofiring CCS

Cofiring

Coal

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0M

tCO

2

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)

Utsira basin

Aquifier

Oil/gas field - hightransport

Oil/gas field - lowtransport

Enhanced oilrecovery

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0 Drying

Steam

Natural Gas / Biomethane

Liquid Petroleum Gas

Light Fuel Oil / Bio-oil

Heavy Fuel Oil

Coal

Coke

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

High temperature heat Steam

Natural Gas / Biomethane

Liquid Petroleum Gas

Light Fuel Oil / Bio-oil

Heavy Fuel Oil

Coal

Electricity

Coke

Coke Oven Gas

Blast Furnace Gas

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0Low temperature heat

Steam

Natural Gas / Biomethane

Liquid Petroleum Gas

Light Fuel Oil / Bio-oil

Heavy Fuel Oil

Coal

Electricity

Coke

Coke Oven Gas

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0Investment level by fuel (GW)

StorageSolar PVMarineImportsBiowaste & othersWindHydroOilNuclearBiomass CCSGas CCSGasCoal CCSCofiring CCSCofiringCoal