Prevention of Sexual Aggression Contextualizing the Problem

Prevention of Sexual AggressionContextualizing the Problem

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

All Sexual Arrests

5% Repeat Offenders

95% of Arrest Offenses Committedby First-time Offenders

(Sandler, Freeman, & Socia, 2008; Zgoba et al., 2015)

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

Focus ofsex-offender

specificmanageme

nt legislation

Note only 28.5% of

arrests lead to

conviction

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

Arrests

1.1%

All Reported Sexual Assaults

22% of ReportedArrested

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

Arrested

(FBI, Uniform Crime Reports, Arrest Data: 2006-2010)

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

Reported

.3%

32% of EstimatedReported

Estimated Sexual Offense Frequency

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

Reported

(Justice Department, National Crime Victimization Survey: 2008-2012)

Estimated repeat proportion of unreported .011 * .68 = .7%

Estimated Sexual Offense Frequency

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

(Justice Department, National Crime Victimization Survey: 2008-2012)

1.0%1.0%

1.0%

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

1.0%

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

Sex-Offender Specific Strategies

Registration/Community Notification

Effects CollateralConsequences

No reduction in recidivismPossible increase in speed of arrest

Reduced offender integrationReduced employment opportunities

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

ResidencyRestriction

s

Effects CollateralConsequences

No reduction in recidivism4.4% of sex offenses in child dense areas

Reduced offender integrationIncreased difficulty monitoringIncreased homelessness

Sex-Offender Specific Strategies

1.0%

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

Global Position

Monitoring

Effects CollateralConsequences

Questionable reduction in recidivism

Very costlyLabor intensiveHigh false positive alarmReduced offender employment opportunities

Sex-Offender Specific Strategies

1.0%

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

CivilCommitme

nt

Effects CollateralConsequences

No significant impact on overall recidivism

Very costlyExtremely small % of offenders (1.2% of referred)High false positive commitment rateAlternatives available

Sex-Offender Specific Strategies

1.0%

1.0%

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

Prevention Targets the Whole Problem

Vast Majority of

our resources

are directed here

1.0%

From the Perspective of Offense Frequency

Prevention Is the Elephant in the Room