Presidential Nominations

Presidential Nominations

Who selects the nominee?

• Historically…

• Members of Congress

• State party leaders

• Primary voters– (Or just those in Iowa and New Hampshire?)

Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by Primaries

010203040

5060708090

1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000

Democrats Republicans

Rules of the 2008 race

• Frontloading

Date 1996

Jan wk1

Jan wk2

Jan wk3

Jan wk4 AK, HI

Feb wk1 LA

Feb wk2 IA

Feb wk3 NH

Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD

Mar wk1 CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

Date 2008 1996

Jan wk1 IA, WY

Jan wk2 NH,

Jan wk3 MI, NV

Jan wk4 SC, FL AK, HI

Feb wk1 ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN, MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK, KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MT

LA

Feb wk2 LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA, HI, WI

IA

Feb wk3 NH

Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD

Mar wk1 OH, RI, TX, VT CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

Rules of the 2008 race

• Frontloading– Effect on “Momentum”?– Importance of the Invisible Primary?

• Demise of public finance?

The demise of public finance

• FECA Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections– All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less

(if they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year

– If you take the federal money, you abide by overall and state by state spending restrictions (about $44 million in 2004)

• Public financing ($74 million in 2004) for general election campaigns (with limits on campaign spending)

Rules of the 2008 race

• Frontloading– Effect on “Momentum”?– Importance of the Invisible Primary?

• Demise of public finance?

• PR vs. the Unit Rule (Democratic party)

California

• Open primary

• 370 delegates

• 241 allocated proportionally based on primary results in each of 53 congressional districts

• 129 allocated based on statewide vote

3 delegates: CDs 20, 474 delegates: CDs 2, 3, 11, 16, 18, 19, 21, 22, 25, 26, 31, 32, 34, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 48, 49, 51, 525 delegates: CDs 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 13, 15, 17, 23, 24, 27, 28, 29, 33, 35, 36, 37, 50, 536 delegates: CDs 6, 8, 9, 12, 14, 30

California

• Closed Primary • 170 delegates • 159 allocated to the winner

in each of 53 congressional districts (3 per district)

• 11 allocated to winner of statewide vote

Arizona

• Closed primary• 50 delegates selected • Winner take all

Arkansas

• Open primary

• 35 delegates selected

• 22 allocated proportionally based on primary results in each of 4 congressional districts

• 13 allocated based on statewide vote

•6 delegates in CD 1 & 2; •5 delegates in CD 3 and 4

Arkansas

• Open primary, polls close 5:30pm• 31 delegates selected today• 12 allocated to the winner in each

of 4 congressional districts• (Three to the winner if he receives 50% of the vote,

proportionally to the top two if he does not)

• 19 allocated based on statewide vote

• All to winner if he receives 50% of the vote, allocated proportionally among top three if he does not.

Colorado

• Closed caucus• Precinct caucuses select delegates to

county conventions, which select delegates to congressional district conventions, where 36 National Convention delegates will be chosen

Colorado

• Closed caucus

• Precinct caucuses select delegates to county conventions. These delegates are not bound to vote along with results of straw poll on “caucus day”.

West Virginia

• Party Convention

• 18 delegates selected

• All 18 delegates awarded to candidate who wins a solid majority of the vote at the convention on one of the first three ballots.

Obama and Clinton 2008 Nomination Race

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Primaries

De

leg

ate

s

Obama CUMTOT Clinton CUMTOT

Republican Delegate Selection 2008

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Primaries

Nu

mb

er

of

De

leg

ate

s

Huckabee CUMTOT RomneyCUMTOT McCain CUMTOT

Who is advantaged by these rules?

So who selects the nominee?

• State party leaders?• Primary voters?• Large contributors?• The Press?• A combination?

• How might the influence of different actors vary because of – The prevalence of caucuses/conventions/primaries?– Open/closed primaries?– The calendar/frontloading?– Unit rule vs. PR?– Campaign finance rules?