Predicting Future Growth from Unbuilt Lots

Predicting Future Growth from Unbuilt Lots

Chris Whittaker-Jefferson County Planning and Zoning Departments

Clay Raines-Jefferson County Planning and Zoning Departments

Background Information

• Growth of Jefferson County’s population– 49% population growth between 1990 and 2010 (from 35,926

residents in 1990 to 53,498 in 2010)• In early 2000’s, over 1,000 residential lots per year were

approved by the Jefferson County Planning Commission• Large number of building permits obtained in early 2000’s

in Jefferson County– Peaked in 2003, just before impact fees were enacted.

• Impact fees pay for needed infrastructure required by new development

• In Jefferson County: Schools, Parks, Police, and Fire Services.• Slightly more than $13,000 per typical single family home

75/7

677

/78

79/8

181

/82

83/8

485

/86

87/8

889

/90

91/9

219

9419

9619

9819

9820

0220

0420

0620

0820

1020

120

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Building Permit Activity by Housing Type in Jefferson County, 1975 to 2012

Single family

Manufactured housing

Single family- attached

Apartment

Impact Fees

Recession

A Couple of Newer Subdivisions

Huntfield in Charles TownBreckenridge North Subdivision

Gaining an Understanding of the Existing Conditions

• Envision Jefferson 2035 Comprehensive Plan– Enabled under §8A of WV Code– Updated every 10 years

• Envision Jefferson 2035 is update of 2004 Comprehensive Plan

– Looks at existing conditions to gain an understanding of issues

– Creation of Goals and Objectives– Recommendations– Required and Optional Topic Areas

6

Envision Jefferson 2035 Components Per WV code 8A-3-4, the Comprehensive Plan SHALL HAVE, but is not limited to, the following components:

Land Use Housing TransportationInfrastructure Public Services RuralRecreation Economic

DevelopmentCommunity Design

Preferred Development Areas

Renewal and/or Redevelopment

Financing

Historic Preservation

Optional Components (Proposed to be included in 2014 Plan):

History Environmental Tourism

Conservation Safety Natural Resource Use

Existing Land Use Map

• Existing Land Use Map for Jefferson County– First for County– Shows state of development that is on the ground and

the locations of larger approved/unbuilt subdivisions– Created using a number of tools

• County Assessors data• Analysis of aerial and satellite photos• Analysis of existing subdivision plats• Ground truthing• Public input at workshops and other meetings

Issues

• Tracking the number and status of approved and unbuilt residential building lots– Similar to many smaller communities and

communities without adequate public facilities ordinance

• Ensures that existing capacity is available for transportation, sewer/water, schools, parks, etc.

– Creates a gap between understanding what development might be accommodated on existing lots and where new development might occur.

Why Concern about Unbuilt Lots

• While lots may be approved, changes in housing market might impact the marketability of some lots/subdivisions

• Numerous subdivisions are subject to provisions of §8A-5-12 of WV Code– “Zombie subdivisions” allows developer of approved plats to

maintain development rights until July 1, 2012 or later depending on local government.

– Many of these subdivisions were slated to be built before 2007-2008 housing/credit crisis

– Kept alive by intervention from State Legislature or local government

• Jefferson County extended cutoff date is July 1, 2015

Zombie Subdivision

Aspen Greens, Located off of Flowing Springs Rd.

What we are doing?

• Creating a map and database showing all unbuilt residential and non-residential lots in major and minor subdivisions

• Assessing potential build-out of Jefferson County based on approved and unbuilt residential and non-residential lots

Creation of Unbuilt Lots Map

The Start

• Working from an existing subdivisions database created by Meghan Hammond a previous intern.

• The majority of the subdivisions were completed in phases, and each record was recorded in sequence– This means my records originally started as nearly

650 major subdivision polygons and 1300 minor subdivisions

Trimming the Fat

• Needed to reduce the workload and volume, but need to maintain record keeping functionality

• Elected to merge records of same subdivision, and keep the most recent planfile

• This reduced the number of records as well as the polygons that needed examined

Subdivisions BeforeBefore

After

Collecting Data

• The next step was trying to find out how many homes and buildable lots were actually on the ground in a given subdivision.

• Used assessor’s data to determine the size and value of a lot, to evaluate its viability

• The total number of approved lots was found by examining, recorded files, community impact statements, municipal records and in select cases the most recent final plat.

Typical Subdivision Development

Idiot Proof Counting

Works Great with larger subdivisions too

The “Mountain”

• The previous strategy worked about 95% of the time, until I encountered the lots on the Mountain

• Here a new, more tedious strategy was adopted.

• Moving alphabetically, I applied the same strategy as with the traditional subdivisions, except adopting stricter guidelines on lot size (depending on location of the subdivision)

An Example of the chaos…

After Edits

Worthwhile process

• Started with nearly 6,000 parcels• Reduced to under 3,000 by removing parcels

unsuitable for building• Proceeded to count the remaining lots and

addressed homes on the mountain to obtain the last of my data

Results

• There are a total of 26,417 buildable lots in Jefferson County, 12,506 are un-built at this time– Of the total lots 25,127 are in major subdivisons– Major subdivisions also include 12,043 of the un-

built lots

Distribution of Unbuilt Lots

1-5 6-10 1-25 26-50 51-100 101-300

301-500

501-1000

1001-1700

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

115

2034

1811 13

5 3 2

Frequency of Available Lots in major subdivisions

Number of Unbuilt Lots

Num

ber o

f Sub

divi

sion

s

Lots Available

Further Plans

• Planning on doing a commercial buildout potential as well– Buildout analysis will be done using Community

Viz extension from Placeways LLC• Obtained zoning for Charles Town, Ranson,

and the county as a whole– Removed the properties that were already built

on, or did not meet minimum building requirements

Example of Community Viz

Applicability of unbuilt lot data

• Aid in subdivision and land use process• Key component of Envision Jefferson 2035

document• Use to assess viability of

population/employment projections– WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research– Metro Washington Council of Governments– Hagerstown/Eastern Panhandle MPO– Projection based on 2010-2012 Census growth

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 203540,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

75,035

83,109

79,526

67,658

West Virginia University

Metro Washington COG

HEPMPO 2008 Assump-tions

2010-2012 US CENSUS Assumptions

Population Projections for Jefferson County, 2010-2035

Future Land Use Map

• Guide to help developers and public better understand where growth is targeted over the next two decades

• Provides greater clarity in comparison to interpretation of descriptions.

• Based on data and public input• Helps staff to better understand where zoning

changes might be warranted.

Timeline• Finalization of unbuilt lots (including non-

residential lots) by late August

• Draft Future Land Use Map to be completed by early 2014

• Final Future Land Use Map will be included with Envision Jefferson 2035 Comprehensive Plan, to be completed by the end of 2014

More Information

• Envision Jefferson 2035– www.envisionjefferson2035.com

• Jefferson County Planning and Zoning– http://

www.jeffersoncountywv.org/government/departments/planning-and-zoning-department.html

Thanks for your time

Questions?