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PRA 評估改善的效果. 林家德 100 年 6 月 20 日 日本福島第一核能電廠事故研討會 原子能委員會. PRA 簡介. Probabilistic Risk Assessment ( 或稱 QRA) 約於 1960 年代萌芽,為結合可靠度、故障樹與事件樹分析等之方法論 1975 年美國 WASH-1400 報告為該方法論首次完整具體展現 1988 IPE + IPEEE 1995 年美國 NRC 發表 PRA policy statement 風險告知應用 ( 管制與運轉決策制訂 ) PRA 標準 火災 PRA. 美國核能工業界風險告知應用經驗. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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PRA
100620
PRAProbabilistic Risk Assessment (QRA)19601975WASH-14001988 IPE + IPEEE1995NRCPRA policy statement()PRAPRA
From Feb. 2009 NEI(T. Pietrangelo to USNRC)
NRC(Safety Goal) (Quantitative Health Objective, QHO)(1986)(1 mile)0.1% 110-5 /yr (QHO)
EPZNUREG-0396 (MACCS2) * (NUREG-0396)100110-4NUREG-039670% (170%) 110-4 = 310-5 100
*NUREG-0396 (EPA 520/1-78-016), "Planning Basis for the Development of State and Local Government Radiological Emergency Response Plans in Support of Light-Water Nuclear Power Plants," USNRC, December 1978. H.N. Jow, J.L. Sprung, J.A. Rollstin, L.T. Ritchie, and D.I. Chanin, MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). NUREG/CR-4691, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, USA (1990).From: 100.5.31
()RG 1.174
PRiSESDP2006PRiSE
PRA/()How likely is it?What are the consequences?What can go wrong?//
(0.5g PGA) + (, 10~14)AC (loss of almost all I&Cs) (SBO)
IAEA(2002) 14/11/80 Garigliano 3/12/82 Dresden 6031/3/94 Cooper ()13/12/80 Hinkley 22/1/84 Borssele ()() 12/1999 Blayais 1985 17 (source: NRC generic reports in IRS)11/7/2000 Chernobyl 3 RF
IAEA(2002)(1) ()17/10/80 Indian Point 87+11/12/89 Clinton 12/1/87 St. Laurent 19801990 ()1985 (33)(UHS)1982 1999 800
IAEA(2002)(2)30 19885 32 134 6 () 6 2 3
IAEA(2002)
1CooperBWR19937RCIC
2Calvert CliffsPWR20024158260/
3Davis-Besse19986F2113156 mph99%11ECCS41NRC24110140
4Turkey Point1992830145mph175mph564CST
(SBO)copingACSBO SBOACACSBO
SBOAC44coping SBO4coping4ACAC60
SBO()AC(MOV)RCICHPCI()357(Class 1)125
Sheet1
ABCDFCCDP
E(K)R(V)R(P)E(W)A(P)C(M)O(P)D(0)D(5)S(A)
S01OK6.7E-020.0E+00
S02ES7.9E-052.6E-073.3E-03
S03EO7.0E-054.8E-076.9E-03
S04EOS8.2E-068.7E-081.1E-02
S05EO52.8E-063.9E-081.4E-02
S06EO5S8.4E-072.5E-083.0E-02
S07EOD1.5E-11
S08EODS7.3E-117.3E-111.0E+00
S09CM2.0E-102.0E-101.0E+00
S10EC1.9E-061.5E-077.8E-02
S11ECS3.6E-071.4E-084.0E-02
S12ECO8.6E-071.3E-071.5E-01
S13ECOS5.0E-075.3E-081.1E-01
S14CM9.3E-119.3E-111.0E+00
S15CM3.2E-063.2E-061.0E+00
S16CM2.7E-092.7E-091.0E+00
S17CM7.5E-087.5E-081.0E+00
S18CM1.0E-061.0E-061.0E+00
6.7E-02
1.7E-041.0E-06WinNUPRA
5.6E-06CDF
0.00251
()
SBO
SBO
11()////
11()5480V /
11(1)
ECW
11(2)
/
11(3)()()//
(Gas turbine)
To Power Grid
To Power Grid
Breaker
Breaker
Breaker
Breaker
Breaker
Breaker
NO
NO
161 KV BUS 2
NC
NC
NO
NO
NO
To Unit 1 RAT 2
To Unit 1 RAT 1
161 KV BUS 1
To Unit 2 RAT 1
To Unit 2 RAT 2
BREAKER
VVVVVV
VVVV
TRANSFORMER
GAS TURBINE
GT
NO
NC
NC
NO
NO
NC
NC
0.61g and U=0.18, R=0.08
PRA
67% (CDF)98% (LERF)
()1 Case 2 1.2
Region III
Region II
Region I
1E-5
1E-7
1E-5
1E-4
CDF(/RY)
1E-6
1E-5
LERF(/RY)
1E-6
1E-6
DCDF(/RY)
DLERF(/RY)
CDF
LERF
CDF
LERF
Case 2
Case 1
1CDF 9.5%LERF2.3% 1 220%CDF5.6E-7/ (-9.2%)LERF 5.5E-8/ (-7.5%)
125DC24()()RHR AB()()()
PRA()PRA(PRA)
A. Giddens (UK)() 911D. Ropeik (USA, 2011)Michigan9111,018
PRAPRAPRA()PRAPRAPRAIAEAPRA
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