Plan Implementation Part II Jennifer Evans-Cowley, PhD, AICP Professional Development Officer, Ohio

Plan Implementation Part IIJennifer Evans-Cowley, PhD, AICPProfessional Development Officer, Ohio

Key Concepts

• Taxes

• Budgeting

• Organizational Structure

• Comprehensive Planning

• Strategic Planning

• Citizen Participation

“A budget may be characterized as a series of goals with price tags attached” Aaron Wildavsky

Types of Taxes

• Regressive• Progressive

Types of Revenue

• Property Tax

• Income Tax

• Sales Tax

• Fees for Service

• Grants

Methods of Finance

• Pay as you go• Reserve Funds• General Obligation Bonds• Revenue Bonds• Lease-Purchase• Special Districts• Special Assessments• Grants• Tax Increment Financing

Types of Budgeting Systems

• Line Item Budgeting

• Planning, Programming and Budgeting Systems (PPBS)

• Management by Objective (MBO)

• Zero-Base Budget (ZBB)

Capital Improvements Program

• What is a Capital Improvement?– Is a public facility that constitutes a major expenditure

and a long life involving nonrecurring expenditures

• What is a Capital Improvement Program?– A guide to the provision of capital improvements by

balancing revenues, expenditures, as well as sequencing of acquisition actions. It is linked to the goals established within the comprehensive plan.

Bond Rating System

• Firms– Standard & Poor’s AAA - C– Moody’s Investors Service Aaa - C

• Two Types Issuer and Issue Rating

Certificates of Obligation

• What is a CO?– Higher Interest Rate– Does not have to be Voter Approved

Project Management

• Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT): Project management technique that defines shared activities and creates a sequence of events.

• Critical Path Programming (CPP): The critical path of activities to complete a project.

Forms of Local Govt

• Weak Mayor-Council

• Strong Mayor-Council

• Commission Plan

• Council-Manager

Types of Local Governments

• General-purpose local government – counties, municipalities, towns and townships.

• Single-purpose local government – School districts and special districts.

Span of Control

• HeirarchicalManager

Technical Manager Administrator Administrative Asst. Clerk

Technician Technician InternPlanner Planner

Planning AssistantPlanning Assistant

Span of Control

• Flat

Manager

Technician Administrator Administrative Asst. Clerk

Organizational Center

• Staff Functions – Support line positions– Budgeting, Human Resources

• Line Functions – Provide direct service– Water, Parks

Work Areas

• Function – transportation, historic preservation

• Process – zoning review, demographic analysis

• Time – current v. long range

• Area - neighborhoods

Centralization

• Centralized - functional

• Decentralized – typically by area

Comprehensive Planning

• The official statement of a legislative body that sets forth its major policies concerning desirable future physical development

• Should be adopted by the governing body• Key Elements

– Demographics– Land use– Transportation– Community facilities– Infrastructure

Strategic Planning

• Analyze Community Needs

• Determine Long Term Objectives

• SWOT Analysis

• Involve stakeholders

• Develop and evaluate alternatives

• Develop policies

• Conduct evaluation

Citizen Participation

• Computer simulation• Design Charrette• Facilitated Meetings• Neighborhood organizations• Delphi Method• Task Force• Visioning• Public Hearings

Plan Making

• Research methods and techniques

• Collecting data

• Techniques for organizing information

• Analysis of information (quantitative and qualitative)

• Demographics

• Fiscal impact analysis

Statistics

Key Topics

• Data Types/Measurement• Descriptive Statistics• Normal Distribution• Sampling Distribution• Estimation

Types of Statistics

• Descriptive – describes data

• Inferential – tells about population– Sample statistic to estimate population

parameter

Types of Data

• Nominal: no order: social security number

• Ordinal: order, but no magnitude: letter grade

• Interval: order, magnitude, but no fixed interval: example temperature

• Ratio: order, magnitude, and interval (used for measures of central tendency): distance

Measures of Central Tendency

• Mean (average)

• Median (middle number), best for skewed data

• Mode (most frequent number)

Categorized Data

• Frequency

• Cumulative Frequency

• Relative Frequency

• Cumulative Relative Frequency

Frequency

Class Frequency Relative Freq Cumulative Frequency

CumulativeRelativeFrequency

40-44 2 0.05 2 0.05

45-49 6 0.14 8 0.19

50-54 12 0.29 20 0.48

55-59 12 0.29 32 0.76

60-64 6 0.14 38 0.90

65-69 4 0.10 42 1

Total   42 1.00    

Normal Distribution

Planning Analysis

Key Topics

• Population Projections• Employment Forecasting• Sources of Data• Methods of Data Analysis

Population

• Current Estimates– Most recent US Census– Migration and Natural Increase

• Birth and Death Rates (aggregate)• Net Migration – school enrollment

– Step Down Method • Using data for state/county/MSA

– Other: Telephone hookups, electric meters

• Population Projections

Population Projections

• Growth Curves– Take Current Population and Historical

Population to identify a pattern of growth, which is used to estimate future population.

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Straight Projection Exponential

Gompertz

Population Projections

• Step-down Methods (state, county, MSA)– Use ratio of population of community to a larger area

• Cohort Survival– Birth Rate/Death Rate– Migration Rates

Population Pyramid

Source: Vicki Male

Birth Rates

• Need a birth rate of 2.1 to maintain the population size

• Birth rates are generally going down– Europe birth rate of 1.5 (European Union)– United States rate of 2.0 – 2.1 (US Census)

Data Sources

• US Bureau of the Census (http://www.census.gov)

• FedStats (http://www.fedstats.gov)

• National Center for Health Statistics (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/)

• State-level Department of Health for information on birth and death rates

Employment Data

• US Bureau of the Census – 5 year economic census (http://www.census.gov)

• County Business Patterns (http://www.census.gov)

• Census Transportation Planning Package (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ctpp/)

Economic Base Analysis

• Economic Base Analysis tries to determine the multiplier effect– Location Quotient (concentration of a given industry

in a given place and compares it to the nation)

Location Quotient =

Regional Employment inIndustry I in Year T

/ National Employment inIndustry I in Year T

Total Regional Employment in Year T

Total National Employmentin Year T

Economic Base Model

• If Location Quotient is >1 exporting employment

• If Location Quotient is <1 importing employment

• Basic Activities can be exported, while non-Basic Activities cannot be exported

Multiplier Effect

• Total Employment/Basic Employment

• 20,000/10,000 = 2.0

• Every basic employee generates 2.0 employees. That person plus 1.0 additional employees.

Shift-Share Analysis

• Analyzes change in employment in a given area and given industry

• Look at two periods• Between 1990 and 2000 the helium industry

increased employment by 3 percent in the Amarillo, Texas Metropolitan Area. The MSA’s employment increased by 10 percent.

• Between 1990 and 2000 the helium industry growth was 5 percent nationally and overall employment grew 10 percent.

Thank You!