Petar Vujanovic Head of Indonesia Desk OECD, Economic Department Part 2 – Is there a current...

Petar VujanovicHead of Indonesia DeskOECD, Economic Department

Part 2 – Is there a current account problem?

INDONESIA’S CURRENT ACCOUNT CHALLENGE

2

Current Account

3

Current account in OECD and selected emerging economies

A big deterioration in Indonesia’s current account (% of GDP)

4

Current account in selected emerging economies

Rapid deterioration in current account began in mid-2011

5

Exchange rate

Depreciation of over 35% since beginning of 2012.

6

Current account components (USD)

Higher oil deficit and lower non-oil & gas goods surplus

7

Current account components (USD)

Goods imports stalled and big fall in goods exports (USD) since beginning of 2012.

8

Trade

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Oil and gas – USD and Rupiah

Denomination of trade (USD or rupiah) makes a difference.

10

Oil – net exports and price

Oil price explains a big part of the growing oil deficit

11

Gas – net exports and price

Gas price explains little of the (relatively modest) decline in gas exports (large trade surplus)

12

Trade – Non oil and gas goods exports

Both manufactures and mineral commodity exports have declined

13

Trade – Manufactured exports

Manufactured exports are quite diversified

14

Trade – Exports - Manufactures

Palm oils Base metal products

Processed rubber products

-40% (18%)

-46%(10%)

-43%(12%)

Percent reduction in value from Q2 2011 peak

(% share)

15

Palm oil prices

Palm oil prices have fallen over 30% since Q1 2011

16

Trade – Exports – Mining and other

~30% of all goods exports

Coal Crude oil Natural gas

-29%(39%)

-10%(24%)

-28%(26%)

Percent reduction in value from ~Q4 2011

peak (% share)

17

Trade – metal prices (IMF)

Metal prices have fallen over 30% since Q1 2011

18

Trade – thermal coal prices (IMF)

Coal prices have fallen by around 30% since Q1 2011

19

Terms of trade

…. In short – Indonesia has suffered a large decline in its terms of trade – and accelerated since beginning of 2011. Similar to other commodity-based economies, like Chile and Australia.

20

Trade – Goods and Service Imports (USD and local currency)Value of imports in local currency has been driven by depreciation. Volumes have been flat in recent quarters.

21

Trade – Goods and Service Imports (USD)

Raw materials are the largest component

22

Trade – Raw material imports (USD)

Processed industrial supplies are the largest component

23

Trade – Monthly trade balance

The turn around in the trade balance continued in November.

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Capital and Financial Account

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National savings and investment

Gross national savings and investment are now close to being equal

26

Capital account components

Portfolio flows have been volatile; reserves accumulation has been important.

27

Reserves assets and the exchange rate

Policy of rapid reserve accumulation fro 2008 while the rupiah strengthened helped to hold down the current account deficit.

28

Conclusion

• There has been a big deterioration in the current account since the end of 2011.

• This has contributed, at least in part, to a large depreciation in the Rupiah.

• Decline in goods balance (non-oil and gas, and oil).

• Commodity prices account for a large part of this – including crude oil, palm oil, coal, and many metals – end of the “super-cycle”.

• A terms of trade shock – like other commodity exporters.

• Imports of processed industrial supplies are a large component but flat (USD and volume) growth.

• Savings excess over investment has disappeared.

• Reserve asset transactions important in explaining capital account.

• FDI flows have increased. Portfolio flows have been volatile.