Perspectives on Sustainable Transportation · 2018-02-12 · •Cars required: 35% of jobs in major...

Perspectives on Sustainable Transportation

FISITA Keynote

Stanford University

Nov. 2016

What is CARS?

CARS has a forward-looking focus and provides a portal

for industry partners into auto-mobility research at

Stanford. CARS handles the infrastructure of our

community and links to on-campus groups in the mobility

space.

The affiliate program of the Center for Automotive Research

at Stanford links industry and academia

around human centered mobility and

the future of the automobile.

CARS Affiliate Partners

One Definition of Sustainable Transportation

Hall & Sussman, 2006

One Definition of Sustainable Transportation

Hall & Sussman, 2006

Transportation and the Economy

• Cars required: 35% of jobs in major cities

inacessible by transit. More than half of high-

paying jobs

• Employment: Nearly 10M people employed in

freight industry.

• Cost of Risk: ~100 people die each day on

public roads. $500B annual impact on

economy.

One Definition of Sustainable Transportation

Hall & Sussman, 2006

How much energy does transportation use?

Source: EIA

Where does transport energy come from?

Source: EIA

How is transportation energy used?

Source: EIA

One Definition of Sustainable Transportation

Hall & Sussman, 2006

Is our transportation system equitable?

Do TNCs Fix Historic Discrimination?

Mr. Cab Driver won't

you stop to let me in

Mr. Cab Driver don't

you like my kind of

skin

Mr. Cab Driver you're

never gonna win

-Lenny Kravitz

We already know discrimination happens…

…In hiring (Bertrand and Mullainathan, 2004)

…At crosswalks (Goddard et al., 2014)

In peer economy discrimination has been shown…

…In peer lending (Pope & Syndor 2008)

…In AirBnB rentals (Edelman et al., 2014-16)

So why would we expect peer-to-

peer transportation to be any

different?

Maximize long-

term revenue

potential

Before

Ride

Requests During Ride

Smart et al.

(2015)

Edelman et al.

(2016)

This Work

Maximize short-

term revenue;

minimize per-trip

risk

Reject or

Cancel

Motives

Information

Action

• Surge Prices

• Neighborhood

Demographics

• Hearsay

• Location

• Star Rating

• First Name

Maximize short-

term revenue;

obtain good rating

Route &

Service

• First Name

• Interaction with

Passenger

Where

do I

drive?

After Ride

Star

Rating

• First Name

• Interaction with

Passenger

• Gratuity

Advise other drivers

of experience

This Work

This Work

Multiple Ways Drivers Could Discriminate Against Passengers by Race/Gender

Data Gathering in Boston

5 Unique routes w/ 10-12 stops

85 student travel days, ~340

hours travel time

911 rides requested (1,000

target)

66 drivers canceled or drove

the opposite direction (de

facto cancelation)

Zero students stranded, lost or

injured

Study indicates that Uber and Lyft are not equitable

1. In Boston, Uber drivers cancel twice as frequently on

black passengers

2. In Seattle, black passengers wait longer for both

Uber and Lyft drivers to accept their ride, meaning

longer wait times on Uber

3. In Boston, women pay 5-10% more, apparently the

result of a small number of bad actors, not “average”

driver

The Path Forward for the Transportation Industry

• How can shared mobility services improve mobility for

all users and citizens?

• How will future mobility trends shape driving behavior

• What are the “right” vehicles to design, build and

manufacture for future mobility solutions?

What do future mobility trends mean for sales?

Vehicles

Year =

Vehicle

KM

x

Year

Pass-KM Pass-KM

Veh-KM

What do future mobility trends mean for sales?

Vehicles

Year =

Vehicle

KM

x

Year

Pass-KM Pass-KM

Veh-KM

[DURABILITY]

[OCCUPANCY] [MOBILITY] [SALES]

How will mobility trends shape driving behavior?

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

010

000

2000

0300

00

40000

500

00

Vehicle Age (years)

Dis

tan

ce D

rive

n p

er

yea

r (m

iles)

NHTSA 2012

How will mobility trends shape driving behavior?

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

010

000

2000

0300

00

40000

500

00

Vehicle Age (years)

Dis

tan

ce D

rive

n p

er

yea

r (m

iles)

NHTSA 2012

NHTSA 2016

How will mobility trends shape driving behavior?

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

010

000

2000

0300

00

40000

500

00

Vehicle Age (years)

Dis

tan

ce D

rive

n p

er

yea

r (m

iles)

NHTSA 2012

NHTSA 2016

US Carsharing

How will mobility trends shape driving behavior?

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

010

000

2000

0300

00

40000

500

00

Vehicle Age (years)

Dis

tan

ce D

rive

n p

er

yea

r (m

iles)

NHTSA 2012

NHTSA 2016

US Carsharing

Ridehailing (Conceptual)

How will mobility trends shape driving behavior?

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

010

000

2000

0300

00

40000

500

00

Vehicle Age (years)

Dis

tan

ce D

rive

n p

er

yea

r (m

iles)

NHTSA 2012

NHTSA 2016

US Carsharing

Ridehailing (Conceptual)

What are the “right” vehicle for future mobility systems?

• Who are the customers? And how does the purchase

decision differ from a rental decision?

• How great a fraction of sales will new mobility systems

represent in the future?

• In a world where the passenger values the service as

much or more than the product, how does a

manufacturer continue to distinguish itself?

Questions?

Stephen Zoepf

szoepf@stanford.edu

201-315-2889