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Peering into the Future of the
Sales Tax: Why Economy and
Demography Matter
A Far Too Common Picture
$-
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FY 13-14 FY 14-15 FY 15-16 FY 16-17 FY 17-18 FY 18-19 FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22 FY 22-23 FY 23-24 FY 24-25 FY 25-26 FY 26-27 FY 27-28 FY 28-29 FY 29-30
In M
illio
ns
TABOR refunds SB 228 HUTF and CC Reserve
K-12, HCPF and Corrections Additional GF for Medicaid SUBTOTAL all other depts
Revenue less rebates and exps and less EITC
Colorado’s Finances Remain Structurally Broken
113.33%
206.28%
95.27%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Cumulative Growth Rates from FY 13-14 through FY 29-30 for GF and SEF Revenues, CDE, and HCPF
Education HCPF Revenue
The State Sales Tax is of Particular Concern
-15%
-10%
-5%
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Fiscal Year
Annual Growth Rate CAAGR 1980 - 2012 CAAGR 2013-2030
CAAGR 2013 – 2030: CAAGR 1980 – 2012:
Local Government* Outlook Similar
* Best Case Scenario – Broad based municipal government with strong local economy
CAAGR 1993-2013 = 3.18%
With Modest Inflation Forecast, Trend Local Government* Real Sales Tax Growth Expected to be 1%
And Inflation Affects Sectors Differently
Source: ITEP http://itep.org/itep_reports/2013/08/a-closer-look-at-tabor-taxpayer-bill-of-rights.php#.VAYU-fldWSo
Sales Tax is the Workhorse of Local Government Finance in Colorado
Source: Municipal CAFRs. Yellow bars represent 2013 data; green bars 2012 data.
The State Increasingly Relies on the Income Tax: Local Governments do not have this Option
Source: CFC calculation from LCS data, adjusted for rate changes to sales, use and income taxes
And Yes, Sales are Migrating to E-Commerce
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E-C
om
me
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as
a P
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f To
tal S
ale
s
Calendar Year
E-Commerce as a Share of Total U.S. Sales
Source: US Census Bureau
But Estimated State and Local Tax Losses in Colorado only $173 Million in 2012
Source: Fox, et. al. at http://cber.bus.utk.edu/ecomm/ecom0409.pdf
Our Models Do Not
Yet Account For Other
Potentially More
Damaging Headwinds
to the Sales Tax
US Becoming an Increasingly Unmarried Nation: Singles Spend Less on Taxable Goods
Source: Census Bureau, Bloomberg at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-09/single-americans-now-comprise-more-than-half-the-u-s-population.html
And Evidence Mounting that Inequality Trends Affecting Tax Revenue
Goods Becoming Increasingly Smaller Share of Consumption, Regardless of Place of Purchase
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Goods Share Services Share
Source: Moody’s Economy.com
Thought Experiment: How Many Goods Has Your Cell Phone Replaced?
Now =
Land Line Phone Answering Machine Alarm Clock Hand Held Calculator Wristwatch Calendar Camera DVD Player GPS Books Newspapers Maps/Atlases, etc. Music Players Notepads TVs And more…
This Shift is Seen in Sample Local Government in Colorado
And, Increasingly Purchases Made in Non-Traditional Ways
Access Trumps Ownership: Sharing Economy Estimated to be in the $Billions • Peerby
• Rent the Runway
• Open Shed
• Friends with Things
• SpaceOut
• Find a Uniform
• Freecycle
• Zilch
• OzRecycle
• Jayride
• Divvy
• MeeMeep
• Streetbank
• Boulder Public Library
Since 2011, Ebay Sales Growth Outpacing US Retail Sales Growth
Sources: Census for US Retail Sales, http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ebay/financials for Ebay Sales
Craigslist Statistics (as of March 26, 2012)
Total number of local Craigslist sites 700
Number of countries that have a local Craigslist site 70
Number of Craigslist daily queries worldwide 50,000,000
Total percentage of all Craigslist revenue that comes from adult service ads 33 %
Number of new classified ads that are published on Craigslist every month 40 million
Number of used car ads viewed on Craigslist 9.2 million
Number of page views Craigslist gets every month 20 billion
Number of Americans who use Craigslist each year 50 million
Source: http://www.statisticbrain.com/craigslist-statistics/
2013 Car-sharing Numbers
25
891,953
12,131
24.1%
23.6%
74:1
0.4%
Number of active car-sharing operators
Car-sharing members
Number of vehicles being shared
Membership growth rate between 2012 and 2013
Fleet growth rate between 2012 and 2013
Member to vehicle ratio
Member to vehicle growth between 2012 and 2013
Source: http://tsrc.berkeley.edu/node/629
And, Consider This…
879,822
Fewer car purchases
(if all car sharers otherwise
bought vehicles)
Lodging Tax is also Vulnerable
1% increase in Air BNB listings
0.05% decrease in total hotel revenue Boston University Study of Texas Market
And…Air BNB
• Now exceeds 10 million bookings
• Has more than 50,000 renters per night (18.25 million room nights/year)
• Is adding 1,000 new hosts to its network daily
• Bookings in Denver and Boulder are in top ten nationwide for summer 2014
Source: http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2014/01/airbnb-eats-into-hotel-revenue.html, http://www.cntraveler.com/daily-traveler/2014/05/airbnb-top-summer-destination-is-nashville-tennessee
Peering into the Future: Will the Younger Consumer Hold Up?
Will the Older Coloradan Behave as
Previous Generations?
Student Loan Debt Now Tops $1 Trillion Nationally
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY
And Colorado Ranks 7th Highest in Nation for Per Capita Student Loan Debt
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY
But 21st in Student Loan Debt per Borrower
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY
Under 30 Cohort Largest Accumulators of Student Loan Debt
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY
And Also the Age Cohort Facing High Unemployment Rates
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6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%US Unemployment, NSA
20 - 24 years old 25 - 29 years old
Source: BLS
Colorado is Still Aging
23.9%
64.0%
12.1%
2013 Population Share
Share 0-17 Share 18-64 Share over 65
23.1%
58.9%
18.0%
2030 Population Share
Share 0-17 Share 18-64 Share over 65
Source: Colorado State Demographer
And Aging Remains an Issue for Taxable Consumption
Source: BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey
At the State Level,
Policy Also Contributing
to the Gap
TABOR Refunds Return
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
In M
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Fiscal Year
TABOR Refund Forecast
Refunds are taken from the General Fund and thus contribute
Refunds Would Not be Triggered without Hospital Provider Fee
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Re
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Fo
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Fiscal Year
TABOR Refunds with and without Hospital Provider Fee
GF CF GF CF TABOR LIMIT
By 2030, TABOR Refunds Account for 31.02 Percent of Gap
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Fiscal Year
Share of Gap for which TABOR Refunds are Responsible
TABOR and Sales Tax Changes Provide an Almost Complete Short-Term Solution
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In M
illio
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Fiscal Year
Closing the Gap by Eliminating TABOR Refund and Extending Sales Tax to Personal Services
Gap Eliminate TABOR Refund ST on Services
Phyllis Resnick Phyllis.Resnick@colostate.edu
http://coloradofutures.colostate.edu
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