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© Crown copyright 2005 Page 1Page 1Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble
David Richardson
Met Office, Exeter
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 2Page 2Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
Contents
Global Interactive Forecast System concept
The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)1st TIGGE WorkshopFuture plansLinks to Pacific Experiment
The presentation covers the following sections
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 3Page 3Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
Traditional forecast system
observations Assimilation Forecast users
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 4Page 4Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
Global Interactive Forecast System
Initial risk from medium-range global ensemble
Forecaster runs ‘sensitive area’ prediction
Forecaster requests observations in sensitive areaForecaster requests
high resolution regional ensemble
Initiate and maintain links with civil protection agencies
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 5Page 5Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
A concept for future weather prediction
Global Global participation, global application, global and regional
models
Interactive observation-assimilation-forecast-user: all parts of system
integrated, adaptive, interactive. Changes according to situation and user needs.
We cannot say now what a future Global Interactive Forecast System will be – a goal of THORPEX is to determine this
The development, evaluation and testing of a future GIFS will depend on results from all four components of THORPEX
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 6Page 6Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
Framework for international collaboration in development and testing of ensemble prediction systems
Resource for THORPEX research projectsComponent of THORPEX Forecast Demonstration
Projects (FDPs)A prototype future Global Interactive Forecast
System Initially develop database of available ensembles,
collected in near-real timeCo-ordinate research using this multi-model
ensemble data, including interactive aspects
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 7Page 7Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
TIGGE Workshop
Workshop: 1-3 March 2005, ECMWFAddress strategy to achieve TIGGE objectivesFocus on user-requirements and infrastructure
needed to meet theseProduce outline plan and timetable60 participants from operational centres and
universities worldwideReport submitted to THORPEX Executive Board
and International Core Steering Committeewww.wmo.int/thorpex/publications.html
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 8Page 8Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
TIGGE Workshop: aims
Aim: Define user-requirement for TIGGE dataUsers
Who?What for?How?When?
RequirementsWhat data?Format?How to access?
ContributorsEPS 1 EPS 2 EPS n
NHMS academic End user
Predictability science
Real-worldapplications
???
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 9Page 9Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
TIGGE infrastructure Phase 1
Data collected in near-real time (via internet ftp) at central TIGGE data archives
Can be implemented now at little cost
Can handle current data volumes within available network and storage capabilities
TIGGE Centre A
EPS 1 EPS 2 EPS n
NHMS academic End user
TIGGE Centre B
Predictability science
Real-worldapplications
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 10Page 10Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
TIGGE infrastructure Phase 2
Data distributed over several repositories
But keep efficient and transparent user access
Flexible – minimise data transfers
Needs substantial software development
Coordination with WMO Information System
Requires additional funding EPS 1 EPS 2 EPS n
NHMS academic End user
Predictability science
Real-worldapplications
Portal to distributed (virtual) archive
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 11Page 11Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
Access and use of TIGGE data
Aims for TIGGE data policy:TIGGE data available to all users for research
purposes (efficient approval for data access)
User-friendly interface for access to the central archives (including for subsets of ensemble data)
Promote open-source sharing of post-processing software (calibration, combination, decision-making) to maximise benefit for both researchers and end-users
Address issue of real-time access to data, in particular for demonstration projects and field experiments
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 12Page 12Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
TIGGE Plans
Phase 1: Central TIGGE archives: ECMWF (NCAR, CMA) For ECMWF: funded within existing resources Technical plan: July 2005 Initial infrastructure development: Jan 2006 Early 2006: TIGGE data archives will begin collecting
available ensemble contributions in near-real time 2007-08: TIGGE available for THORPEX support to
demonstration projects (IPY, Beijing 2008 Olympics regional EPS, Pacific THORPEX Experiment)
Phase 2: distributed archive Coordinate with WMO Information System plans ECMWF will lead bid for FP6 funding
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 13Page 13Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
TIGGE and Pacific Predictability Experiment
Predictability studies – inter-comparison of different available ensemble systemsAre all models equally poor over W N America?Are better models still relatively worse here than
elsewhere? Are analyses relatively worse over Pacific?Does better use of satellite data improve
performance? Is predictability intrinsically low?How important is model error?
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 14Page 14Pacific THORPEX Predictability, 6-7 June 2005
TIGGE and Pacific Predictability Experiment
Predictability studies – inter-comparison of different available ensemble systems
Field campaign support Real-time access to global TIGGE ensemble forecasts Advance warning of potential significant events Sensitive area predictions incorporated in TIGGE
infrastructure (some SAP also directly use TIGGE ensembles)
Regional ensembles Boundary conditions from global TIGGE ensembles Regional ensembles into TIGGE archives Co-ordinated inter-comparison of performance Global TIGGE predictions of when to run regional/mesoscale
ensembles
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