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P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
Target Audience Transmission Company and BSC Parties
Date Published 15 May 2017
Deadline for Responses
17:00 Wednesday 31 May 2017
Summary This paper details the proposed methodology for setting Load Periods and Sample Settlement Periods to be used in the derivation of Zonal Transmission Loss Factors, as required by Approved Modification P350 ‘Introduction of a seasonal Zonal Transmission Losses scheme’. Responses to this consultation will be presented to the BSC Panel at its next meeting in June. The Panel will determine if a change needs to be made to the proposed methodology. BSC Parties are invited to respond to this consultation using the consultation proforma available on the P350 Implementation page of the ELEXON website. Please return responses to P350Implementation@elexon.co.uk by 17:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2017.
1. Introduction
1.1 Approved Modification P350 ‘Introduction of a seasonal Zonal Transmission Losses scheme’ will introduce a
Transmission Loss Factor (TLF) for each TLF Zone and BSC Season. The TLF Zones are aligned with the
existing Grid Supply Point (GSP) Groups so transmission losses can be allocated on a geographical basis. The
Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is mandating, through secondary legislation and licence changes,
an implementation date of 1 April 2018. This modification was approved by Ofgem on 24 March 2017.
1.2 The CMA stated P350 should be identical in its technical aspects to P229, except for the inclusion of a small
number of additional solution elements that have emerged since P229 was progressed. These are:
the treatment of Interconnectors and High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) circuits that are internal to
the Transmission System;
National Grid’s rights of ‘step in’; and
a new Transmission Loss Factor Adjustment value to neutralise the impact on certain strike price
adjustments conducted outside the BSC by the Low Carbon Contracts Company for Contracts for
Difference (CFD).
1.3 P350 requires that seasonal Zonal TLF values for each BSC Year (1 April to 31 March) are calculated in
advance, using historic data from a ‘Reference Year’ (RY), running from 1 September to 31 August. Rather
than using data for every half-hour Settlement Period in the RY, the P350 legal text (paragraph 7 of Annex T-
2) requires the BSC Panel to identify representative Sample Settlement Periods (SSPs).
1.4 In order to do this, the BSC Panel must (after consultation with Transmission Company and other Parties)
divide the RY into a number of different Load Periods (LPs), each “representing (in the opinion of the Panel)
typically different levels of load on the AC Transmission System, defined by time of day, day of week, season
and such other factors as the Panel considers relevant”. The Panel must also specify a number of Sample
Settlement Periods (SSPs) from each Load Period.
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 1 of 4 © ELEXON 2017
P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 2 of 12 © ELEXON 2017
1.5 These LPs and SSPs, when used to derive TLFs, will result in a representative annual average TLF for each
zone. Note the RY will be divided in to BSC Seasons1
1.6 On the 11 May 2017, the Panel agreed the proposed methodology to be issued for consultation with the
Transmission Company and BSC Parties, in accordance with the approved legal text for P350 (specifically
Section T, Annex T-2, paragraph 7).
1.7 Parties’ views will then be taken into account, and the LP and SSP methodology updated if required. It will
then be presented to the BSC Panel for approval.
1.8 On or before the 31 August, ELEXON will notify the TLFA, the Transmission Company and Central Data
Collection Agent (CDCA) of the LPs and SSPs for the Reference Year, and publish them on the BSC website.
2. Data Analysis
2.1 It is not feasible to derive nodal TLFs for every SP, as metered data for every SP in the year would need to
be input into the Load Flow Model (LFM). The LFM would then need to be run for each SP, or approximately
17,500 times. These outputs would then be used to produce a TLF per node and per SP, resulting in millions
of pieces of data for analysis and manipulation to derive an annual average.
2.2 We suggest continuing to use the proposed LP and SSP methodology from previous related modifications
(P82, P203 and P229). The analysis undertaken previously was refreshed to ensure it is still fit for purpose,
and parties will be able to raise concerns as part of the consultation.
3. Rationale for Proposed Load Periods
3.1 Using the previously stated methodology, data analysis was refreshed to determine the most appropriate way
for dividing the RY (the period from 1 September 2016 to 31 August 2017) into LPs. As the data for 1 April to
30 August 2017 were not available, representative data from 1 April to 30 August 2016 was used in our
analysis.
3.2 As before, the Initial Demand Out-turn (INDO) was chosen as being representative of the load on the
Transmission System. INDO data has the added benefit of being published on BMRA and is available to both
BSC Parties and any other interested parties. This was plotted for each SP in the data analysis period (see
appendix 1, Graph 1.1 to 1.4), in order to determine whether any patterns of load were apparent.
3.3 On review of the results, a relatively simple trend became apparent. The load on the Transmission System
can be divided into weekly periods, with incremental differences between each week. Furthermore, each
week can be divided further into Business2 and Non-Business Days (shown by a sharp decrease in INDO for
weekends and Bank Holiday days). Hence we suggest selecting two LPs from each week, one for Business
Days and one for Non-Business Days.
1 BSC Seasons are defined as: BSC Spring is 1 March to 31 May inclusive; BSC Summer is 1 June to 31 August inclusive; BSC Autumn is 1 September to 30 November
inclusive; and BSC Winter is 1st December to 28th (or 29th, as the case may be) February inclusive, provided that the first relevant BSC Season shall be the period
from the Go-live Date to the end of the next following BSC Season.
2 Business Days are defined in the BSC as: A day (other than a Saturday or a Sunday) on which banks are open in London for general interbank business in Sterling
and, in relation to payment in euro, any such day when in addition the Trans European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System is operating.
In this instance they will be Electricity Forward Contract (EFA) days (23:00 to 23:00).
P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 3 of 12 © ELEXON 2017
3.4 In a standard week, one LP would represent five Business Days and the second LP would represent two Non-
Business Days. This is taken into account by paragraph 8.4 of Annex T-2 (which weights each Load Period in
proportion to the number of Settlement Periods it contains).
3.5 This relatively simple approach would result in at least 104 LPs which reflect the differing loads on the
Transmission System through the year. Note some years may have extra LPs if Bank Holidays occur mid-
week and so are “islanded” from a weekend.
3.6 It is this proposed methodology for determining LPs that parties are asked to gives their views on through
the consultation.
4. Rationale for Proposed Sample Settlement Periods
4.1 The LPs will be representative of how demand varies depending on time of year and day of the week, but will
not be representative of variations in demand within a day (across the 48 periods).
4.2 Previous analysis plotted demand by SP, across each day for a sample month in each BSC season, to see
how demand varies across the day. This analysis was refreshed for the current RY, and split into Business
and Non-Business Days, with example graphs shown in appendix 2 (Graphs 2.1 to 2.8).
4.3 By splitting the day into a set of (equal) periods, each broadly representative of the load for that period, a
representative SP can be chosen. This will ensure demand values used are not skewed towards peaks and
troughs in load, and keep the number of SSPs to a manageable level. After analysing the data, dividing each
day into six four hour blocks corresponding to Electricity Forward Agreement (EFA) Blocks3 appears logical.
To avoid doubt, on clock change days EFA Block 1 contains 3 hours (Spring) and 5 hours (Autumn).
4.4 Consideration was again given as to whether selecting multiple SPs for each EFA Block and LP would increase
the representation of the SSPs. However this was discounted as the current proposed methodology is already
representative of the load variations across each day, week and season.
4.5 The most representative SP from each LP and EFA Block was determined by averaging the INDO overall SPs
in each EFA Block and LP, and identifying the SP with the INDO value closest to the average (see example in
appendix 3). This provide six SSPs per LP (one SSP per EFA Block, with six EFA Blocks per LP), giving us at
least 624 SSPs.
4.6 A comment was made at the BSC Panel meeting on 11 May that the Sample Settlement Periods selected by
this methodology are not necessarily representative of all Settlement Periods in the EFA Block, because:
● The methodology chooses Settlement Periods with demands close to the average, and will therefore not
include in the sample any ‘outlier’ Settlement Periods with extremely high or low values of demand; and
● The methodology selects Settlement Periods based only on total demand, (without regard to other
factors, such as weather conditions or generation mix).
4.7 The first of these issues could potentially be addressed by including more Sample Settlement Periods in each
EFA Block and/or selecting Sample Settlement Periods at random (so as to include a wider variety of
Settlement Periods). We intend to investigate these options further, and report back to the BSC Panel
meeting in June. However, the potential disadvantage of introducing such a change now is that it would
introduce additional uncertainty into the 2018/19 TLF values (and would mean that they had been calculated
on a different basis to the values presented to Ofgem in the P350 Modification Report).
3 EFA Block 1 is 23:00 to 03:00, EFA Block 2 is 3:00 to 07:00, EFA Block 3 is 07:00 to 11:00, EFA Block 4 is 11:00 to 15:00, EFA Block 5 is 15:00 to 19:00, and EFA Block 6 is 19:00 to 23:00
P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 4 of 12 © ELEXON 2017
4.8 It is this proposed methodology for determining SSPs that parties are asked to gives their views on through
the consultation.
5. Next steps
5.1 Following the end of the consultation period, the P350 project team will consider all responses on their merits
and the methodology updated if required. A second paper will then be presented to the BSC Panel in June to
request approval of the methodology. We will include all consultation responses, and our actions in respect to
them.
5.2 As the actual LPs and SSPs should be based on the most up-to-date data we have, we intend to use INDO
data up to and including 30 June 2017 (1 July to 31 August 2016 demand data will be used to complete the
RY) when calculating the actual LPs and SSPs. The chosen LPs and SSPs will be detailed in papers for the ISG
(July 2017), and BSC Panel (August 2017), before being submitted on or before 31 August 2017.
5.3 You are invited to respond to this consultation using the consultation proforma. Please return responses to
P350Implementation@elexon.co.uk by 17:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2017.
Appendices
Appendix 1 – INDO by Season (Graphs 1.1 to 1.4)
Appendix 2 – Initial Demand Out-turn INDO, by Settlement Period and Day, for first month of each Season
(Graphs 2.1 to 2.8)
Appendix 3 – Worked example of how Settlement Period defined per EFA block and Load Period
For more information, please contact:
Riccardo Lampini, Market Analyst
P350Implementation@elexon.co.uk
020 7380 4172
P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 5 of 12 © ELEXON 2017
Appendix 1 - Initial Demand Out-turn (INDO) by Season.
Graph 1.1 – INDO for September to November
Graph 1.2 – INDO for December to February
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40,000
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55,000
1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 13253747112335471123354711233547112335471123354711233547
01/09/2016
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30/11/2016
01/09/2016 01/10/2016 01/11/2016
Non Working Days
Working Days
September October November
Source: ELEXON
P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 6 of 12 © ELEXON 2017
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
4710213243 6 172839 2 13243546 9 203142 5 162738 1 12233445 8 193041 4 1526374811223344 7 182940 3 1425364710213243 6 172839 2 13243546 9 203142 5 162738 1 122334
30/11…
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01/11…
01/12/2016 01/01/2017 01/02/2017
Non Working Days
Working Days
December January February
Source: ELEXON
P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 7 of 12 © ELEXON 2017
Graph 1.3 – INDO for March to May
Graph 1.4 – INDO for June to August
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
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55,000
471123354711233547112335471123354711233547132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 132537 1 13
28/02…
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01/02…
01/03/2017 01/04/2017 01/05/2017
Non Working Days
Working Days
March April May
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30,000
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55,000
4711233547112335471123354711233547112335471123354711233547112335471123354711233547112335471123354711233547112335471123354711233547112335471123354711
31/05…
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01/08/2017
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01/05…
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Non Working Days
Working Days
June July August
Source: ELEXON
Source: ELEXON
P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 8 of 12 © ELEXON 2017
Appendix 2 – Initial Demand Out-turn (INDO), by SP and Day, for first month of each Season
Graph 2.1 - September Non-Business Days
Graph 2.2 - September Business Days
15,000
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47 48 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
1 2 3 4 5 6
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40,000
47 48 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
1 2 3 4 5 6
Source: ELEXON
Source: ELEXON
P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 9 of 12 © ELEXON 2017
Graph 2.3 - December Non-Business Days
Graph 2.4 - December Business Days
15,000
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50,000
47 48 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
1 2 3 4 5 6
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47 48 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
1 2 3 4 5 6
Source: ELEXON
Source: ELEXON
P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 10 of 12 © ELEXON 2017
Graph 2.5 - March Non-Business Days
Graph 2.6 - March Business Days
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47 48 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
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47 48 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
1 2 3 4 5 6
Source: ELEXON
Source: ELEXON
P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 11 of 12 © ELEXON 2017
Graph 2.7 - June Non-Business Days
Graph 2.8 - June Business Days
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47 48 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
1 2 3 4 5 6
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47 48 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
1 2 3 4 5 6
Source: ELEXON
Source: ELEXON
P350: METHODOLOGY FOR LOAD PERIODS AND SAMPLE SETTLEMENT PERIODS - CONSULTATION
P350: Methodology for LPs
and SSPs
Page 12 of 12 © ELEXON 2017
Appendix 3 – Worked example of how SSPs defined per EFA Block and LP
The following example aims to show how a particular SSP is chosen for a particular EFA Block and LP, so as to be
representation of load on the Transmission System.
Using a randomly picked LP (the weekend of 3 – 4 September 2016), the data is sorted into EFA Blocks. The average INDO for each EFA Block is derived by summing all values in the EFA Block, and dividing by the number of
values. The SP with the closest INDO value to the average for this EFA Block is then chosen as the representative
SSP for this EFA Block/LP:
Date Settlement Period
EFA Block INDO (MW) Average INDO (MW)
Absolute Difference
02/09/2016 47 1 25250 21121 4129
02/09/2016 48 1 23836 21121 2715
03/09/2016 1 1 22714 21121 1593
03/09/2016 2 1 21688 21121 567
03/09/2016 3 1 21066 21121 55
03/09/2016 4 1 20747 21121 374
03/09/2016 5 1 20251 21121 870
03/09/2016 6 1 19784 21121 1337
03/09/2016 47 1 23595 21121 2474
03/09/2016 48 1 22142 21121 1021
04/09/2016 1 1 21145 21121 24
04/09/2016 2 1 20295 21121 826
04/09/2016 3 1 19464 21121 1657
04/09/2016 4 1 19031 21121 2090
04/09/2016 5 1 18684 21121 2437
04/09/2016 6 1 18249 21121 2872
Therefore SP 1, from 4 September 2016, would be one of the SSP used in calculating the Zonal TLFs for this BSC
Season.
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