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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Overview of the Energy Technology Perspectives Model
Johannesburg, 30 March 2012
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Complexity of energy system
Technology level Long-term nature of planning decisions (e.g. lifetime of
power plants)
Future development of technologies
System level Infrastructure for energy (e.g. T&D for electricity)
Interdependencies between technologies and sectors (e.g. EVs with power sector)
Integration of variable renewables
Stakeholder level Wide range of actors involved from households, industry
to government
Policy level How to achieve policy goals
Effectiveness and impacts of individual policy measures
Energy system does not allow for real-world experiments
Scenarios: Exploring the future
Models: Developing consistent scenarios
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Classification: Bottom-up and top-down models
Optimisation
Simulation
Top-down
Bottom-up
E3MG
Econometric models
POLES
MARKAL/TIMES
MESSAGE
PRIMES
Technology-rich least-cost models
OSeMOSYS
IMACLIM-R
CGE models
OECD ENV-Linkages
LEAP
Technology-rich simulation models
MoMo
(Source: van Ruijven and van Vuuren, 2009)
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Energy system model
Constraints
Energy security
Existing policy Behaviour
Resources
Statistics
Expert knowledge
Reports
Calibration of energy & emissions
Government Statistics
International statistics
Scenarios
Reference
Policy
Technology database
Experts
Literature review
Stakeholder workshop
Other energy system models
Demand projections
Outputs from macro and demand models
Assumptions
Source: William Usher, 2010
Data requirements
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Energy modelling at IEA
Next 5 years: Medium-term oil, gas and coal markets models
Next 25 years:
World Energy Model
Next 40 years:
Energy Technology
Perspectives model
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt C
O2
CCS 19%
Renewables 17%
Nuclear 6%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%
End-use fuel switching 15%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt C
O2
CCS 19%
Renewables 17%
Nuclear 6%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%
End-use fuel switching 15%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
ETP Modeling Framework
Primary
energy
Conversion
sectors Final energy End-use
sectors
End-use service
demands
Electricity
production
Fossil
Renewables
Nuclear
Refineries
Synfuel
plants
CHP and
heat plants
etc.
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural
gas
Heat
etc.
Industry
Buildings
Transport
Material
demands
Heating
Cooling
Passenger
travel
Freight
etc.
ETP-TIMES model
MoMo model
Energy costs
Energy demand
ETP-TIMES model for supply side supplemented with spreadsheet-based end-use sector models
Model horizon: 2009-2050 (2075) in 5 year periods
28-36 world regions/countries depending on sector
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Power sector model in ETP-TIMES
Wind turbine, onshore
Wind turbine, offshore
Hydro, run-of-river
Gas turbine
NGCC
Coal plant, supercritical
Coal plant, subcriticalCoal supply
Gas supply
Wind potential, onshore
Wind potential, offshore
Hydro potential, run-of-river
Transmission and distribution
…
Industry demand
Transport demand
Residential demand
Commercial demand
Fuel supply Generation T&D Demand
Technical and economic characteristics
Potentials
Electricity
demands
Load
curves
Generation mix
New capacities
Fuel costs
Fuel
demand
Electricity prices
Average generation costsEmissions
Least-cost optimisation:Minimising total costs of power
system over analysis horizon
Approach: Optimisation
Foresight: Perfect foresight or myopic versions
Time horizon: Long-term (investment planning)
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Decarbonising the power sector – a new age of electrification?
A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
BLUE High Nuclear 2050
BLUE High Ren 2050
PW
hOther
Solar
Wind
Biomass+CCS
Biomass and waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas+CCS
Natural gas
Oil
Coal+CCS
Coal
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Average annual electricity capacity additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario
Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon technologies must be massively increased from today’s levels.
0 10 20 30 40 50
Solar CSP
Solar PV
Geothermal
Wind-offshore
Wind-onshore
Biomass plants
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas-fired with CCS
Coal-fired with CCS
GW/ yr
Present rate Gap to reach BLUE Map
30 plants (1 000 MW)
200 plants (50 MW)
12 000 turbines (4 MW)
3 600 turbines (4 MW)
45 units (100 MW)
55 CSP plants (250 MW)
325 million m2 solar panels
2/3 of Three Gorges Dam
35 plants (500 MW)
20 plants (500 MW)
Historical high
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Transport model MoMo (Modeling Mobility): Architecture
Activity Structure Intensity emission Factor
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Passenger light-duty vehicles sales by technology BLUE Map scenarios
The BLUE Map scenario envisions rapid successive introduction of new generations of advanced vehicles in all major economies.
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
PV Roadmap
PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11%
in 2050
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Technology Roadmaps Status
2009 2010 2011 2012
Fossil Fuels
Carbon capture &
storage
High efficiency low
emissions coal
Renewables
Wind - Solar PV
- Concentrating solar
power
- Biofuels
- Geothermal heat &
power
- Hydropower
- Biomass for heat &
power
-Solar heat and cooling
End-Use
Buildings
Efficient buildings:
Heating and cooling
Systems
-Lighting
-Efficient buildings:
Building shells and
design
Industry
Cement sector CCS in industry Chemical sector:
Catalysis
Transport
Electric vehicles Vehicle Fuel Economy
Other
Nuclear Smart Grids
2 0 1 0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Summary
Energy models provide a consistent analysis framework Energy models are simplified representation of the real-world
system
Level of detail depends on questions to be addressed and available data
Choice of model type depending on analysis question Energy system models: focus on role of technologies and
interactions within the energy sector
Economic models: focus on interdependencies of the energy sector with the remaining economy
Limitations of individual model approaches important when interpreting model results
Technology roadmaps to bridge the gap between today’s situation of a technology and its future vision from scenario analysis
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