Organizational Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainty · 2010-07-20 · Dealing with Uncertainty...

Organizational Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainty

David CledenAuthor of: Managing Project Uncertainty

define termswhat’s the problem?

Organizational Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainty

resilience

no panacea

project-focused toolkitjudgment on what to choose and when

WARNING: Some Project Managers may have been harmed in the making of this presentation

What’s the problem?

anticipate plan execute deviate respond

A knowledge problem?

“There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we do not know we don’t know.”

Inherent uncertainty

All risks arise from uncertainty, but not all uncertainties can be captured as risks.

The lifecycle of uncertainty

▫ Not all uncertainty creates problems

▫ The duration of the lifecycle is highly variable

▫ Uncertainty can give rise to opportunities

Assembling the strategies

Anticipation: The forecasting problem

Intuitive leaps

Agility• Shared understanding of goals• Taking small steps

▫ retraceable▫ minimise commitment▫ improved manageability

• Working iteratively ▫ fast learning loops▫ avoid need for everything to be ‘right first time’▫ exploratory opportunities

• Early warning mechanisms▫ what is the norm?▫ sensitivity to deviations▫ go looking for problems

• Decisive action▫ willingness to change what isn’t working▫ team empowerment (from shared goals)

Cycling proficiency

From fighter pilot to PM

Colonel John Boyd(“40 second Boyd”)

▫ Manoeuvrability (“fast transients”)

▫ Operate inside the natural timescale of events

The OODA loop• Observe

▫ gather information▫ notice patterns▫ be objective (don’t gather data to confirm preconceptions)

• Orient▫ what’s the context?▫ what are the dominant factors▫ filter the relevant from the irrelevant

• Decide (or form a working hypothesis)▫ evaluate the possibilities against the over-arching goals▫ choose according to maximum benefit▫ consider the negatives as well as the positives

• Act▫ implement swiftly and decisively

Guiding principles• Use opportunities to explore future uncertainty

▫ pilots and prototypes▫ iterative working

• Common purpose, common goals▫ unified team▫ reference for spotting deviations

• Harness the knowledge you have, map the uncharted territories▫ migrate ‘unknown unknowns’ to ‘known unknowns’▫ identify scenarios (good and bad)▫ ‘think backwards’

• Empower decision-making at the point of crisis▫ be prepared to circumvent the hierarchy in exceptional circumstances

• Embrace uncertainty▫ Avoid (knowledge and planning strategies)▫ Anticipate (apply risk management)▫ Suppress (through agility)▫ Cope (through resilience)

. . . and finally

• No magic solutions

• Drive to improve is the real key to managing uncertainty

• “Every failure teaches a man something, if he will learn.”

Questions?