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Opinion and Polling
Opinion and Polling
What do the American people think?
How do we know what the American people think?
Opinion and Polling
What does America look like?
Opinion and Polling
A nation of immigrants . . .
Opinion and Polling
Immigration Wave #1 (late 1800s): Northwest Europe
Opinion and Polling
Immigration Wave #2 (late 1800s / early 1900s): Southern / Eastern Europe
Opinion and Polling
Immigration Wave #3 (recent decades): Hispanics and Asians
Opinion and Polling
Diverse in many ways . . .
Opinion and Polling
Opinion and Polling
Until recently, which group has been the largest minority group?
According to the 2000 census, which group has surpassed African Americans in number?
Opinion and Polling
Opinion and Polling
Which ethnic group has been called “the super-achievers of the minority majority”?
Which ethnic group is the worst off in America today?
Opinion and Polling
Opinion and Polling
Opinion and Polling
Opinion and Polling
Opinion and Polling
Opinion and Polling
Political Socialization• the process of obtaining political
ideologies, viewpoints and opinions• Influenced by . . .
Family Media School
Opinion and Polling
Political Socialization• Correlates to
Geography Religion Urban / suburban / rural Race
Opinion and Polling
Opinion Polling
Opinion and Polling
Opinion and Polling
Opinion and Polling
I. Straw PollA. UnscientificB. Relies on asking a large number of peopleC. Respondents are self-selected (not
random)
Opinion and Polling
II. Scientific PollingA. Define the universe – the population that
the poll aims to measure
Opinion and Polling
Opinion and Polling
II. Scientific PollingA. Define the universe – the population that
the poll aims to measureB. Constructing a sample (random sample) –
universe too large to ask everyone1. All members of the universe have an
equal chance of being interviewed2. Usually 1,000 – 1,500 people (law of
probability)3. + or – 3% margin of error
Opinion and Polling
II. Scientific PollingC. Prepare valid questions
1. Phrasing
Opinion and Polling“Should taxes be increased?”
“Should taxes be increased in order to expand the police force in order to stem the rising tide of violence in our city?”
Opinion and Polling
II. Scientific PollingC. Prepare valid questions
1. Phrasing2. Bias
Opinion and Polling“The right of a woman to terminate her pregnancy should be protected.”
“The right of a woman to murder the unborn child in her womb should be protected.”
Opinion and Polling
II. Scientific PollingC. Prepare valid questions
1. Phrasing2. Bias
D. Interview respondents1. By phone = more cost effective2. Interviewer
a. Toneb. Emphasisc. Accent / dialect
Opinion and Polling
II. Scientific PollingE. Analyze findings
1. Interpretation (subjective)2. computerization
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