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Presentation from LED/OLED conference in Asia from January 2011
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www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
OLED Lighting Trends and OpportunitiesA Webinar for the FlexTech Alliance
August 2, 2011
© 2011NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
About NanoMarkets LC
• NanoMarkets provides industry analysis of emerging markets in energy and electronics enabled by new developments in materials science. We have been covering OLED lighting markets for five years and provide coverage of both materials and the OLED panels and luminaires themselves
• Our work includes market, company and technology analysis, market forecasting and due diligence. NanoMarkets provides an updated forecast for the OLED lighting market every nine months.
• Offerings include reports, custom consulting, seminars/webinars and in-house training. NanoMarkets is based in U.S., with extensive contacts all over the world
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
2
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
NanoMarkets’ Recent OLED Lighting Reports
• OLED Lighting Products and Market Strategies (3/10)
• OLED Lighting Materials Market: Trends and Impact (10/10)
• Transparent Conductors in the OLED Industry: 2011 and Beyond (11/10)
• The Business Case for OLED Lighting (12/10)
• OLED Lighting in Asia (4/11)
• OLED Lighting in Europe (5/11)
• OLED Lighting Global Market Forecasts (5/11)
• Markets for OLED Materials (6/11)
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
Some Forecasts for Total OLED Lighting Revenues
• NanoMarkets (U.S): $4.8 billion by 2016
• Analysis Atelier Corp (Japan): $7.5 billion by 2015 (NanoMarkets $2.6 billion). Large sales outside of Asia, Europe and the U.S. Personal illumination devices
• Lux Research (U.S.): $58 million by 2020. High costs keep OLED lighting luxury items
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
Questions Answered in Today’s Presentation
• What is it reasonable to believe about the future of OLED lighting?
• Where can OLEDs find competitive advantage in the lighting market?
• What segments of the lighting market can they compete in?
• Two plausible low-end market scenarios for OLED lighting:
– Scenario one: The worst that can happen
– Scenario two: How far can niche markets take OLED lighting
• How can OLED lighting replace “light bulbs”?
• OLED lighting market as mass market: Some market forecasts
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
5
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NanoMarkets
Where are we now?. . . a sanity check
• Many developments in last two years
• As many as 40 companies including majors (GE, Samsung, LG, Mitsubishi, Philips, Osram, etc., etc., etc.) involved
• Designer kits available for more than two years
• A few dozen luxury luminaires (often from European designers) are available from high end retailers or have been built for custom applications.
• Luminaires are now thousands of dollars not tens of thousands
6
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
Selected European OLED Lighting Design Projects and ProductsProduct Designer Comments
Airabesc Osram Contains 11 Orbeos rectangle panels and six LEDs. The lamp comes in black, white or
polished aluminum
Aston Martin
Showroom
Jason Bruges Large OLED lighting installation to show off latest Aston Martin car. Uses Philips OLED
panels
Cluster + Benwirth Licht Combines both LEDs and OLEDs. The OLED panels are the Orbeos panels sourced from
Osram. Won the Design Plus Aware in 2010 and the 'Best of Best' Interior Innovation
Aware 2011.
Double C-Future Ingo Maurer High-tech pendent lamp featuring nine suspended Orbeos OLED panels
Early Future Ingo Maurer The very first OLED luminaire; a table lamp resembling a tiny tree with OLED leaves
Edge Amanda Levete Collaboration with Philips using Lumiblade. It is manufactured by Establish & Sons and
sells for €2,200
Flat Lamp Tom Dixon Collaboration with Philips in the form of minimalist OLED lamps
Jumping Flash Novaled Transparent OLED lamp design, called the "Jumping Flash". This uses five transparent
white OLED panels (10x10cm each), with the entire lamp being expandable like a
accordion
Lamped D Signed (Irena Kilibard) Uses OLED panels from Fraunhofer and has been shown at a London design festival
Mimosa Jason Bruges Light sculpture using Philips panels which showed at the SuperStudio in Milan
PirOLED Osram This luminaire costs €9,800 and again uses both LED and OLED lighting; in this case it has
five Orbeos panels and five LED lamps.
Samothrace Blackbody Battery-operated OLED Blackbody available in a "limited edition"
O'Leaf Developed by Philips
with Modular Lighting
Instruments
Can be a table or wall lamp and sells for €1,200 to €1,400
"You Fade to
Light"
rAndom International Light sculpture using more than 900 of Philips' Lumiblade panels. A limited edition of this
installation is commercially available
7
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
Regulation: Market Boosts and Distortions• Phasing out: EU will have phased out incandescent bulbs by 2012, with
halogens gone by 2016. U.S. says lighting must be 25-30 percent more efficient than today’s bulbs beginning in 2012. More draconian U.S. requirements expected for 2020
• Doesn’t impact early OLED lighting introduction. Luxury lights not deployed because of regulations
• Early market maturity. Government regulations accelerate the market opportunity, but also market maturity and saturation. This must be taken into consideration in corporate strategies. Even on optimistic scenarios, saturation of general lighting market begins to impact the market by 2014
• Perverse economics. California utilities have chosen to meet regulatory mandates by heavily subsidizing CFLs to a point where they are almost as inexpensive as incandescent lighting. So a lot of CFL bulbs are being bought in California and sold in other states
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
8
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
Business Challenges for OLED Lighting
• Immature technology with no settled manufacturing approach or customer awareness. Unusual form factor makes comparisons difficult
• OLEDs significantly lag the competition. Past improvements have been swift. But how far can we go? Efficacies above 100 lm/W?
• Costs per kilolumen are now so high as to rule out useful comparisons on a total cost of ownership basis
• LEDs can directly capitalize on standard semiconductor industry processes. Can printing R2R processes deliver lower costs?
• Light output (i.e., luminance) needs to be higher to achieve significant market penetration in general lighting and backlighting sectors
• No clear product strategy to make OLED lighting into plug and play replacement for conventional lighting
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
OLED Lighting and the Economy
• Positive: Energy prices. Energy prices rising again and are likely to continue to rise in real terms as the Indian and Chinese economies grow.
• Negative: Lack of investment money. Large lighting/electronics firms are investing in OLED lighting, but better times might have seen more VCs. Future inflationary conditions could hurt investment once again.
• Negative: Slump in new construction. The construction market in the U.S. and Europe is improving only slowly at best. Boom in China is ending. Lighting expenditures are strongly tied to construction activity
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
10
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
Unique Value-Added Features of OLED LightingOLED lighting special
feature
Short-term Impact Long-Term Impact
Form factor Large-area panel
format and thinness
Ability to replace
existing recessed
lighting panels with
more even lighting and
no need for recessing
Larger panels than can be achieved
now with more total light output.
Eventually, there is the possibility
of very large light panels that cover
an entire wall of ceiling.
Conformability Flexible Novel designs for
chandeliers and table
lamps
Conformal panels for large area
coverage, mobile/rollable lighting
of various kinds. Also lighting
flexible signage and packaging
Transparency OLEDs are potentially
transparent
Novel designs for
lighting
Smart windows and window
treatments
Tunability Color tunable. This
capability is shared
with ILEDs and
Could be used for
adjustable mood
lighting
Could also be used in smart
windows and window treatments
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
Business Cases for Flexible OLED Lighting ProductsProduct Business Case
Residential lighting Flexibility may play the role of more effectively creating new aesthetics or better creating
the mood lighting effect. This is an area waiting to be explored by lighting and interior
designers.
Large lighting panels OLED lighting is uniquely capable of providing large lighting panels that could cover an
entire wall or ceiling. As the size of OLED panels increase they will have to be mounted on
surfaces that are not entirely flat which will provide good reasons for OLED lighting panels
to be flexible or conformal. This need would be enhanced if OLEDs were used on outdoor
surfaces, but this is also not yet possible
Integrated lighting Incorporating lighting into both curtains and clothing is not well developed. Such products
have used collections of ILED lights stitched to fabric. OLEDs would be a good substitute.
Business cases for OLED lighting for fabrics can be based on aesthetics and fashion, but
there will also be practical advantages such as visibility of people who work or travel in
dark areas.
Extended light strips These can be used to provide low levels of light to guide people in darkened area such as
movie houses. They currently exist and use small fluorescent lights or ILEDs. OLEDs
might make an attractive replacement for these technologies.
Brand enhancement
and packaging
products
Not a road much travelled, but we believe that if costs for OLED lighting are reduced
sufficiently (perhaps using printing), it could be added to smart packaging either for brand
enhancement or more practical applications such as indicating package tampering or (for
pharma packaging) amounts of pills used.
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
Comparison of Light Source ParametersFluorescent ILED OLED
Efficacy 80-100 lm/W 80-130 White Currently 25-60 lm/W but could rise to over 100
lm/W.
Wattage CFL 15 W
Linear fluorescent 95W
1.1W Packaged white LED
10.5 W LED lamp
Presumably wattages of OLED luminaires will
emerge in the 5W to 15 W range
Luminous Output CFL 950 lm
Linear fluorescent 2,900 lm
85 to 140 lm Packaged white
LED. 650 lm LED lamp
Current standard for OLED panels is 3,000 lm/m².
To expand to 10,000 lm/m² by 2015. (DOE)
CRI 80-85 80 –white
90 warm white
95 has been achieved at 40 lm/W. OLED materials
promise some competitive advantages in this area
Glare Mediocre N/A Potentially excellent
Cost of
manufacturing
Low because of high volumes Low because of high volumes Potentially very low through the use of R2R and
printing processes
Total cost of
ownership
Mediocre but better than
incandescent
At present somewhat better
than a CFL
Potentially excellent
Environmental/
Safety
Dubious because of mercury Burns very hot, otherwise good Potentially excellent
Form Factor Gas filled tube (traditional or
compact)
Chip – high intensity point light
source
Large area ultra-thin panel
Lifetime (LT70)
(khours)
8 50-60 5-20 at present. Big improvements expected; 30-
50 expected in the next few years. 100 is possible
Dimmable Yes, with special dimmers but
efficiency degrades
Yes and efficiency increases
when dimmed
Yes and efficiency increases when dimmed
Color tunable No Yes Yes
Flexible No Limited Inherently flexible
Noise Yes No No
Switching lifetime Poor Excellent Excellent
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
13
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NanoMarkets
OLED Lighting: Markets and TimetablesMarket/Niche Business Case Challenges Timing
Luxury lighting Capitalize on existing channels and
wealthy consumers. Price not
major factor. Product types
established
There is only so much that
can be done with small rigid
OLED panels
Some products now, but take-off
likely in 2011 and beyond
Mood lighting Fits well with the panel format/low-
luminance of OLEDs. Flexibility and
tunability also important
Cost, achieving flexibility,
and establishing marketing
channels for new product
Expect to see product
development in the 2012 and
beyond timeframe
Office and factory
lighting
Offers a replacement for
fluorescent lighting with smoother,
higher quality light and improved
aesthetics
Luminance, energy
efficiency and panel size
Higher luminance and larger
panels than can now be
achieved. Perhaps not until 2014
or 2015
Architectural
Lighting
Likely to include premium products
and large panels
The need for large panels is
a major challenge
Some projects soon. Significant
market evolution beyond 2012
Smart Windows
and Textiles
Novel products, such as windows
that are lights at night, may offer
cost savings and aesthetic
advantages
Transparency , flexibility and
integration technology.
Marketing for novel
products may be hard
Not a focus of any firm at
present. Could emerge beyond
2015
Automotive
lighting
Replacement of existing EL
technology in dash with higher
luminance products. Mood lighting
for cars
Automotive industry is cost
sensitive with regard to
components
Several firms working in this
space now, but first products not
likely to emerge until 2012 or so
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
14
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NanoMarkets
Other OLED Lighting Markets
• “Designer kits.” Osram, Philips and Lumiotec currently offer. Attempt to create market. Not a product in itself
• Signage. Mainly EL replacement for emergency lights, etc. Some products available already. OLEDs not the best choice for outdoor signage
• Backlights. Mainly alternative for simple backlights for watches, segmented displays, etc. Replacement of backlighting for AM LCD displays seems unlikely, although widely talked about at one point
• Packaging, toys and novelties. Includes everything from high-value (pharmaceutical or perfume) packaging to Christmas ornaments
• Outdoor lighting and signage. Main challenge is encapsulation
15
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
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NanoMarkets
Key Forecast/Scenario Assumptions
• Regulation. Regulations phasing out incandescent bulbs will open up markets for OLED and LED penetration. Note: There are still some uncertainties about how fast regulations will actually be implemented
• Addressable markets. Lighting unit shipments will decline as SSL deployment raises average lifetimes. So OLED lighting business cases must be built around a declining addressable market.
• Pricing. Most uncertain part of the forecast is pricing. Even the basis for OLED lighting pricing is uncertain. It is hard to compare with conventional and ILEDs, because of panel format. $ per square is not appropriate to other kinds of lights.
16
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$ M
illio
ns
Summary of OLED Lighting Market by Application
Other
Signage
Personal ilumination products
Vehicular Lighting
Architectural and specialized industrial lightingGeneral illumination
17
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
Pricing Issues and Strategies
• OLED lighting is further behind other kinds of lighting in terms of pricing than any other parameter.
• Fluorescent lights are just $2-4 per kilolumen and LEDs are about $130 per kilolumen. But OLEDs are around $300 per kilolumen (DOE numbers)
• Major improvement expected and DOE says $8-9 for OLEDs by 2015. This assumes a lot about processes, materials and economies of scale, but would make OLEDs competitive for premium general lighting products
• In NanoMarkets’ forecasts we assume that something like the DOE pricing scenario can be achieved. Some observers believe that OLEDs will be able to do better than this
18
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
Company Product Pricing
Add-Vision Direct materials cost based on Add-
Vision's semi-proprietary materials and
processes
Cost of emissive areas of $0.24 per square inch,
and just $0.08 for non-emissive areas
Kaneka Kaneka will offer OLED square panels
in five colors (warm white, red,
orange, blue and green)
Said to cost around ¥2 million (approx. $24,000)
per square meter—and the company believes that
the price will drop to ¥200,000 ($2,400) in 2012 and
to ¥50,000 ($600) or less by 2020
Lumiotec Designer OLED kits "Version 2.0" 145 x 145 mm kits are $360.
Modistech Currently selling a 150 x 150-mm white
lighting "film" in Korea.
Modistech has said that its OLED lights will be
available for around $212 per square meter by 2011
Philips Lumiblade designer kit OLED driver and electronics is priced at €70 ($93),
with small pre-shaped OLEDs ranging from €72 to
€248 ($96 to $330)
Osram Orbeos product €250
TechnoCorp Future products Goal is $65 per square meter
OLED100 EU R&D project aims to create OLED
lighting devices with 100-lm/W
efficiency, more than 100,000-hour
lifetime and 100-by-100-cm module
size.
The target cost of these modules is €100/m2
($133/m2) or less
19
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
OLED Lighting Scenario I: EL Replacement --The Worst That Can Happen
• The actual worst that could happen would be that OLED lighting never proves viable and disappears as a research program in a few years
• But OLEDs seem to be superior to EL lighting in many applications and also seem suited to luxury lighting; they are getting the attention of designers
• Luxury lighting can never be a big market. A few thousand units at $1,000+ per luminaire and over, puts market in the tens of millions of dollars once developed
• OLEDs could be positioned as next-generation EL. EL lighting is a slow-growing market of around $200-300 million. If OLED lighting gets 70% share it would generate up to $210 million; a lot more than luxury lights
20
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
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NanoMarkets
OLED Lighting Scenario II: Mood Lighting --Mass Market
• Mood lighting is the first possible mass for OLED lighting. It’s performance fits market needs and addressable markets are large; potentially many millions of units
• The “proof” is that the luminance of OLED lighting is already close to being suitable for mood lighting and the panel format is also a fit. Flexibility would also be helpful, but not essential
• Addressable markets would expand rapidly as price declines. But there are relatively price insensitive markets (transport, prestige buildings, etc.) that are ready for it now
• Mood lighting markets could reach several hundred million dollars, making OLED lighting a significant opportunity for major lighting, electronics and home products stores
21
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
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NanoMarkets
OLED Lighting Scenario III: Breaking Into General Lighting
• LEDs have been made to fit in with existing formats. Consider LED “bulbs” and “tubes.” This will be hard – but not impossible – for OLEDs. OLED lighting is intrinsically panel-like
• Breakthrough will come if OLEDs can be made into panels that can replace fluorescent panels. This probably won’t happen until 2015, when these panels are large enough (maybe 1,600 m²) and bright enough (10,000 lm/m²) to do the job
• Replacing CFLs in residential lighting will require a radical acceptance of total cost of ownership by residential consumers. This will not be easy to achieve, because it is unclear how consumers discount for future cost savings. But light quality might be a compelling advantage for OLED lighting
• Major firms including GE and Philips see mass markets emerging around 2015
22
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
NanoMarkets’ OLED General Lighting Forecast($ Millions)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Worldwide consumption
of light bulbs, tubes and
panels (billions)
16.2 15.3 14.4 13.4 12.3 11.2 10.1
Penetration by OLEDs
(%)
0.0005 0.0026 0.0083 0.033 0.12 0.42 1.30
OLED panels shipped
(millions)
0.08 0.4 1.2 4.5 15.2 47.0 131.2
Price per panel ($) 400.0 300.0 207.0 142.8 92.8 58.5 35.7
Market ($ millions) 31.6 120.0 248.4 637.6 1,410.7 2,749.8 4,680.0
23
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
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The Devils Advocate: How Seriously Should You Take These Forecasts?
• Assumes good technological progress on OLEDs over next few years, along with success of early manufacturing plants. Technological progress has been impressive so far, but we can’t be sure it will continue and OLEDs still lag behind LEDs and CFLs
• Assumes good customer acceptance. This is far from proven as yet. Indeed, most potential customers don’t know that OLED lighting exists or even, in many cases, that incandescent lighting is being phased out
• Ramp up to 2014-2015 mass market take off, could be too optimistic. This could make the years 2013-2015 much lower revenues than we show here. On the other hand, our penetration assumptions are quite modest, so eventual revenues could be significantly larger. The next iteration of the NanoMarkets OLED lighting forecast will take a more granular look at the likely market evolution
24
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics
NanoMarkets
Some Conclusions• Significant technical, materials and marketing challenges ahead. Forecasts
rely on economies of scale, R2R manufacturing successes, materials price declines and customer acceptance. They also rely on the kind of OLED lighting products that are likely to emerge
• OLED lighting does not seem likely to compete with CFLs and LEDs on conventional parameters, except color quality in the foreseeable future. Must therefore compete on unique features: panel format, flexibility, tunability and transparency
• The medium-to-long term market opportunity for OLED lighting is contingent on regulations phasing out incandescent bulbs. But this will also lead to early saturation of the market
• At the very least, OLEDs should be able to capture EL alternative market, plus luxury lighting market. Mood lighting market seems likely too. To meet the expectations of large players, OLEDs need to create cost effective panel lighting for general lighting
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
25
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Lawrence GasmanLawrence Gasman is the Principal Analyst at NanoMarkets and one of its co-founders. He also heads up NanoMarkets’ OLED lighting industry research program.
Mr. Gasman's consulting clients have included multinationals, start-ups and investors and he has advised them on new product introduction, market positioning and strategy, and sales potential. He has also provided due diligence on mergers and acquisitions for his financial clients and serves on the technology advisory board of a major specialty chemicals firm.
Mr. Gasman has also spoken and written widely on the subject of new materials markets. His recent appearances have included talks at Semicon West, 2011Flex, and LED/OLED Lighting Japan. Mr. Gasman's latest book is on the commercialization of nanotechnology for Artech House.
Mr. Gasman was educated at Manchester University, The London School of Economics and London Business School.
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
26
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Contact
NanoMarkets, LC
info@nanomarkets.net
www.nanomarkets.net
Phone: 804-360-2967
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC
27
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