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US 113 North / South StudyUS 113 North / South Study113
CURRENT TRAVEL PATTERNS AND FUTURE TRAVEL FORECASTINGCURRENT TRAVEL PATTERNS AND FUTURE TRAVEL FORECASTINGCURRENT TRAVEL PATTERNS AND FUTURE TRAVEL FORECASTING
Station 12 Origins and Destinations
0 10 20 30 405
Miles
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Maryland
New Jersey
Virginia
Virginia
Wilmington
95
50
50
50
50
50 301
301
13
202
95
295
495
Delaware
13
13 113
113
9
9
13
1
14
16
404
124
2426
20
54
24
54
8
300
404
300
392
90
Newark
Dover
Milford
Lewes
Georgetown
Chesa
peake
Bay
Delaw
areBay
Atlantic
Ocean
I-295
US 13
SR 491/Ridge Rd
I-95
SR 3/SR 261/Ebright Rd
US 202
I-95
US 1
US 1US 222
RehobothBeach
BethanyBeach
FenwickIsland
Ocean City
Toll Ferry (US 9)
US 13
Bay Bridge
SR 545/SR 272
Yeatmans Mill Rd/SR 896/SR 213
SR 41
SR 52/Old Kennett Rd/SR 82
301
12
40
40
113
Percent of Trips - Station 12 US 113 North/South StudyOrigin-Destination Survey
Figure 25
Percent of Origins
0.1% - 1.0%
1.1% - 2.0%
2.1% - 4.0%
4.1% - 9.0%
9.1% - 16.7%
Study AreaEntry/Exit Location
Highway
Legend:
Station 12
DirectionSurveyed
Percent of Destinations
0.1% - 2.0%
2.1% - 5.0%
5.1% - 9.0%
9.1% - 22.0%
22.1% - 26.7%
V irginia
Milford
Lewes
Fenwick Island
Ocean City
Georgetown
13
20 2
30 1
13
30 0
8
1
14
16
40 4
2424
54 54
20
26
24
1
11 3
11 3
9
9
50
50
50
50
11 3
13
13
S R 3/S R 261/Ebright Rd
US 202
US 13
V irginia
Ch
esa
pe
ake
Ba
y
99
95
95
295
495
Pennsylvania
Maryland New Jersey
Wilmington
50
50
50
50
50301
301
13
202
13
13
113
113
9
9
13
1
14
16
404
1
24
2426
20
54
24
54
8
300
404
300
90
Newark
Dover Delaw
areBay
Atla
ntic
Oce
an
I-295
US 13
SR 491/Ridge Rd
I-95
I-95
US 1
US 1
US 222
Rehoboth Beach
Bethany Beach
Toll Ferry (US 9)
Bay Bridge
SR 545/SR 272
Yeatmans Mill Rd/SR 896/SR 213
SR 41
SR 52/Old Kennett Rd/SR 82
301
4040
113
MarylandDelaware
O-D Desire Lines
392
US 113 North/South StudyOrigin-Destination Survey
Station 9Highway
Desire Line
5% Percent of Traffic Between Origin and Destination
Note: only O-D pairs with greater than 2% displayed
Legend:
Station 9
2%8%3%
5%
2%
3%
35%
Highway
Dela
ware
Milford
Delaw
areBay
RehobothBeach
BethanyBeach
FenwickIsland
Toll Ferry(US 9)
1
Legend:
Stations
2
3
4
5
DirectionSurveyed
Georgetown
6
7
8
9
10
1112 13
14
15
16
17
24
Lewes
50
Maryland
13
9
13
13
9
113
113
24
24
26
1
1
404
404
20
54
54
54
16
14
1
Survey Locations
US 113 North/South StudyOrigin-Destination Survey
0 3 6 9 121.5
Miles
Study Area
Survey Location Area
Study AreaEntry/Exit Location
DelmarSelbyville
Laurel Dagsboro
Millsboro
Seaford
Bridgeville
YOUR TRIP TODAY
1. Where did your trip begin?
Number Street Name (or nearest cross street/intersection/landmark)
City/Town State Zip
1a. Is the location you listed above…
Home Work Other (specify)
2. Where will the trip end?
Number Street Name (or nearest cross street/intersection/landmark)
City/Town State Zip
2a. Is the location you listed above…
Home Work Other (specify)
3. Will you make any other stops on this trip?
Home Work Other (specify)
4. What was the primary purpose of this trip?
Work Recreation/Vacation Social
Company Business School (students only)
Shopping Other (Specify)
5. Number of people in the vehicle, including the driver?
1 2 3 4 5 or more
6. How often do you make this trip?
Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly First-time Other
7. Type of vehicle?
Passenger Vehicle/Motorcycle Other (Specify)
Truck (2+ axles, more than four tires)
8. Comments about the roadways in Sussex County, Delaware:
Please indicate your travel route for today's trip on this map.
For example, using a highlighter or pen trace your route or place
an x on the roadways that you used.
Travel Survey
XXXXXXX
AtlanticOcean
DelawareBay
ChesapeakeBay
Maryland
Maryland
Delaware
NewJersey
Pennsylvania
Virginia
WilmingtonWilmington
NewarkNewark
DoverDover
MilfordMilford
GeorgetownGeorgetown
RehobothBeach
RehobothBeach
LewesLewes
BethanyBeach
BethanyBeach
FenwickIsland
FenwickIsland
OceanCity
OceanCity
95 95
40
202
495
301
13
50
50
13
113
13 113
50
Peninsula TravelDemand Model
Study AreaRoadway Links
State Boundaries
05-18-04H:\30000\31514-01\GIS\Mapfiles\Travel_Demand_Model.mxd
Transportation Analysis Zone(TAZ) Boundary
0 10 205Miles
Origin State Number Percentage
Connecticut 1 0.4%
Washington DC 1 0.4%
Delaware 77 32.0%
Florida 1 0.4%
Massachusetts 1 0.4%
Maryland 38 15.8%
North Carolina 1 0.4%
New Hampshire 1 0.4%
New Jersey 14 5.8%
New York 11 4.6%
Pennsylvania 87 36.1%
Rhode Island 1 0.4%
Virginia 5 2.1%
West Virginia 1 0.4%
Unknown* 1 0.4%
Grand Total 241 100%
Destination State Number Percentage
Delaware 129 53.5%
Maryland 94 39.0%
New Jersey 1 0.4%
New York 1 0.4%
Pennsylvania 2 0.8%
Virginia 11 4.6%
Unknown* 3 1.3%
Grand Total 241 100%
Home to Work Trip
SHOP
SHOPTAZ: Traffic Analysis Zone
WORKSHOP
HOME
Home to Work to Home Trip Pattern(w/ intermediate shopping stops)
TAZ 5 TAZ 4
TAZ 3TAZ 2
TAZ 1
Destinationof Journey
Originof Journey
Return
Trip
Work and non-homeJTWJourney to Work
Neither end at home or workNHBNWNon-Home-Based
Non-Work
Home and any location not listed
above (includes school trips)
HBOHome-Based Other
Home and Regional Shopping
Centers
HBRSHHome-Based
Regional Shopping
Home and store or restaurantHBSHHome-Based
Shopping
Home and recreational/socialdestination
HBRHome-BasedRecreation
Home and workHBWHome-Based Work
DescriptionCodeTrip Type
Percentage of TripsTrip Purpose
Previous Survey Latest Survey
Work 8.2% 6.5%
Shopping 7.1% 15.4%
Recreation/Social 81.6% 68.3%
Other 3.0% 9.8%
Total 100% 100%
1010
Last summer, on three Saturdays in
July and August, DelDOT conducted
the US 113 Origin-Destination Survey
at 17 intersections in Sussex and
Southern Kent Counties.
A mail-back survey form was used to
collect information on current travel
patterns. The survey included a map
so that travelers could indicate
exactly where their trip began and
ended.
Travel ForecastingOrigins and Destination by State
Key Survey Findings
Transportation Network and Analysis ZonesSocioeconomic Information
Trip Purpose
Origins and Destinations
Survey Locations
Desire Lines
Travel Patterns
Origin-Destination Study
Overall, 21,070 surveys
were distributed and
2,161 responses were
received - a 10% response
rate. Station 12 had the
highest number of surveys
given out (over 2,600) and
Station 14 had highest
return rate (15%).
The survey information was entered into a computer database
that allowed DelDOT's planners to match drivers' origins and
destinations and to analyze common travel patterns. The
following two panels contain examples of the types of
information obtained from the survey responses.
The percentage of shopping trips
have doubled between 1987 and
2003, reflecting the growth in
shopping destinations in the US 113
Corridor and the effect the Rehoboth
Outlets has had on regional travel
patterns.
A map like this was developed for each of
the survey stations. It shows how the trip
origins and destinations were spread
around the state and outside the state,
with the darker shading being the higher
percentage origins and destinations.
This map shows the percentages of origins
and destinations that formed a connected
trip for each survey station. Notice, for
example, that 35% of the travelers surveyed
at Station 9, on SR 20 near Millsboro, started
their trip in Bethany Beach and ended it
beyond the Bay Bridge. This was, by far, the
highest recorded trip.
Once all the information is properly entered, the model is then 'run' forpresent conditions and adjusted until it reasonably predicts currenttraffic patterns, including those from the Origin-Destination survey.An old modeling adage is that "you need to be able to accuratelypredict the present before you can reasonably predict the future."When the planners are convinced the model is ready, it will be run fora variety of conditions, predicting the amount of traffic that will usethe transportation network as far as twenty years into the future.
Trying to predict the future is a risky proposition for anyone, butDelDOT's planners have to do just that to assess when and what typeof improvements will be required to address the US 113 corridor'sfuture transportation needs. Fortunately, with the aid of computermodeling, the job becomes a little easier and more scientific.
Right now, DelDOT's planners are working on a new model that willallow them to predict the travel patterns that occur throughout theyear and during the peak summer travel season. It's called thePeninsula Model because it covers the entire state of Delaware andMaryland's eastern shore, two thirds of the Delmarva Peninsula. Themodel has several key components:
At Station 12, 59% of the 241 survey respondents had either an origin
or destination in Delaware; the remaining 41% was through traffic
(neither trip end in Delaware).
27% of those responding at Station 12 had both trip ends in Delaware.
At Station 8, on northbound US 113 near Selbyville, 38% of the 140
survey respondents had either an origin or destination in Delaware, the
remaining 62% was through traffic (neither trip end in Delaware).
Coming from the west, about an equal number of drivers destined for
Rehoboth (approx. 2,000 per day) use Route 16 and Route 404/18.
At Station 4, on eastbound Route 404 west of Bridgeville, about twice
as many drivers use Route 404 to reach Bethany as they do to reach
Rehoboth.
At Station 15, on Route 1 south of Milford, about 30% of traffic is
destined for Bethany Beach or points farther south.
Source: Station 12 on Southbound US 113 Near Georgetown
June 7, 2004
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