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Multi-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006Marianne ThomsenMulti-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
Boundary conditions of the Risk Problem
Element Boundary
Target Human in general
Condition for exposure Private households
Substances to be considered 145 chemicals; the majority from the list of already assessed chemicals under EU*
Other stressors No
1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006Marianne ThomsenMulti-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
*Of the 145 substances included, 78 have already been risk assessed, 63 are on the EU priority list but have not yet
been subjected to a thorough risk assessment, 4 substances are top scores in the Danish NIR, but not included in the
four EU priority lists of substances.
The System Model for the private consumption scenario
• Problem Specification Model (PSM) • Problem Tree mapping 195 single sub-problems to be
addressed in the household risk scenario
• Scenario Composition Model (SCM)• Selection of fraction of sub-problems considered the most
important ones • biased by data availability
• Criteria Model (CM)• Approximating sub-problems by criteria
• usage and toxicity category data
• Scenario Selection Model (SSM)• Criteria data values are used as input parameters in
order to identify the most problematic substance/-s and derived from this the most serious circumstances for risk assessment
1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006Marianne ThomsenMulti-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
Problem Specification Model (PSM)Qualitative model
1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006Marianne ThomsenMulti-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
Problem Tree mapping 195 single sub-problems as part of the household risk scenario P
roduction
Hum
an Health
Exposure
Effects
Release
Industrial Processing
Consum
er products
Toxic action
Acute
Chronic
Genetic disorder
Carcinogenicity
Personal care
Painting / C
olouring
Household detergents
Pest control
Solvents
Various
Fate
External body
Body entrance
Transport
Internal body
Ventilation
Solid w
aste
wastew
ater
Truck
Ship
Train
Pipe
Intermediate
Food additives
Solid products
Propellants
Pharm
aceuticals
Fuel
Hum
an usage
Veterinary use
Agriculture
Aquaculture
On hum
ans
Not on hum
ans
Indoor
Outdoor
Indoor
Outdoor
Painting
Printers/C
opying
Colouring
Skin care
Hair care
Cleaning
Scent
’Indoor
Outdoor
Oral contact
Skin contact
Contact to food / drinking item
s
Indoor use / A
ir contacts
Outdoor use/
Air contact
Ventilation
Solid w
aste
Wastew
ater
Degradation
Transport
Soil
Freshw
ater
Marine
Air
Biota
Water colum
n
Sedim
ent
Water colum
n
Sedim
ent
Indoor
Outdoor
Terrestrial
Aquatic
Outdoor
Betw
een out- / indoor
Indoor / air
Betw
een compartm
ents
Within com
partments
Betw
een com
partments/B
iota
Within B
iota
Terrestrial
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Aquatic
Sedim
ent
Water colum
n
Plant
Anim
al
Plant
Anim
al
Soil/ B
iota
Freshw
ater /( biota
Air/ biota
Plant
animal
plant
animal
plant
animal
Degradation
Dispersion/
convection
Air
Water
Freshw
ater
Marine w
ater
´Groundw
ater
Sedim
ent
Soil
Water
Freshw
ater
Marine w
ater
Groundw
ater
Freshw
ater
Marine
sediment / w
ater
soil / water
Soil / air
Air / w
ater
air / marine w
ater
air / freshwater
sediment / freshw
ater
sediment / m
arine
air born
waterborne
inhalation
Ingestion
dermal
indoor
outdoor
vapour
particles
vapour
particles
food
drinking
vegetables
meat
open source
packing
groundwater
surface water
persistency
secretion
eye
brain
lung
viscera
nerve
skin
neurodevelopmental
Endocrine disruption
allergy
skin
respiratory
Carcinogenicity
imm
une disorder
loss of fertility
male
female
DA
MP
learning disability
Autistic disorder
Reproductive disorders
lung
breast
colorectal
leukaemia
loss of fertility
Children health disorder
Male
female
mentally
physically
Vulnerability
health status
Genetically
Physical stress status
infection
stress
age
children
old people
bacteria
vira
noise
particles
UV
rays
Scenario Composition Model
1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006Marianne ThomsenMulti-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
Ingestion
Human Health
Exposure Effects
Release Fate
Industrial Processing
Consumer products
Toxic action
Acute Chronic
Neuro-developmental
DisorderGenetic disorder
Carcinogenicity Personal carePainting / Colouring
Household detergents
Pest control Solvents Various
Body entrance
Inhalation Endocrine disruptor
Carcinogenicity
Criteria ModelOrdinal model for each sub problem
1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006Marianne ThomsenMulti-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
Human Health
Exposure Effects
Release Fate
Industrial Processing
Consumer products
Toxic action
Acute Chronic
Neuro-developmental
Disorder
Endocrine disruption
Genetic disorder
Carcinogenicity Personal carePainting / Colouring
Household detergents
Pest control Solvents Various
Body entrance
Inhalation Ingestion
Cr1 Cr2
Carcinogenicity
Cr3
Cr5 Cr6 Cr7 Cr8 Cr9 Cr10
Cr4
SPIN data DEPA QSARProduct Category Model EU Classification & Labelling
Toxicity criteria approximations: Cr1 quantified by R20,R23,R26 (harmful, toxic and very toxic by inhalation),Cr2 by R22,R25,R28 (harmful, toxic and very toxic by oral intake), Cr3 by R39, R48 (danger of very serious irreversible effects, danger of serious damage to health by prolonged exposure) and Cr4 by R45,R46 (may cause cancer, may cause heritable genetic damage)
Scenario Selection Model
Ordinal model for risk level
Multi-criteria model
by use of Partial order ranking methodologies
Highest risk scenarios due to private consumption
Set of criteriaCr1 to Cr10
Value uncertainty
Multi-attribute uncertainty
1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006Marianne ThomsenMulti-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006Marianne ThomsenMulti-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
1
3
4
5
6
8
9
10
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
20 21 23
24
28
30
32
35
36
41
43
46
47
49
59
60 61
63
66 68
72
79
87 89
94
96
101
102
104
105
107 117
118
119
124
129
133
136
139
Hasse Diagram including only realised positions in the Event Space, i.e. the 145 VOC and semi-VOC substances
Cr(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10) = [0,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1] Cr(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10) = [1,1,1,1,0,1,1,1,1,1]
Substances closest related to the top ranked substance (Id 94,
benzene) represent the set of highest concern substances
Reference substance: Id 94, benzene, Cas No.: 71-43-2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
Number of common values of unity
Id Name Cas No.Cr
1Cr
2Cr
3Cr
4Cr
5Cr
6Cr
7Cr
8Cr9
Cr10
8 124 stoddard solvent** 8052-41-3 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
7 19 Toluene 108-88-3 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
7 30 2-butoxyethanol* 111-76-2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
7 85 solvent naphtha** 64742-88-7 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
7 101 Methyloxirane 75-56-9 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1
6 4 Ethylbenzene* 100-41-4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
6 8 4,4'-methylenedianiline 101-77-9 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
6 20 Phenol 108-95-2 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
6 107 hydrogen peroxide 7722-84-1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
*Substances one of the priority lists, but have not yet been risk assessed**Substances not on the EU priority list
1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006Marianne ThomsenMulti-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
Hasse Diagram visualising the Event Space constructed based on the Cr1 to Cr10
Grey circle represents non-realised objects, the numbered white circles the 145 VOCs and semi-VOCs
Id´s representing groups of equivalent substances: Id 1(29), Id 6 (2), Id 9 (12), Id 10 (3), Id 13 (6),Id 15 (3), Id 16 (2), Id 18 (5), Id 19 (2)Id 35 (5), Id 36 (6), Id 47 (2), Id 49 (2), Id 60 (2), Id 68 (5), Id 102 (2)
1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006Marianne ThomsenMulti-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
Probability distribution of ranking levels for each single substance
Case 1 Case 2 Case 3
Id 30: Cr(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10) = (1,1,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1)2-butoxyethanol
111-76-2
All criteria equally important Cr1-Cr4 > Cr 5-Cr10 Cr3-Cr4 > Cr1-Cr2 > Cr5-Cr19
1. International Open Nomiracle workshop, June 2006Marianne ThomsenMulti-criteria selection of human health scenarios due to private consumption
Case 1 Case 2 Case 3
Mean Ranking Estimate for the individual substances
All criteria equally important Cr1-Cr4 > Cr 5-Cr10 Cr3-Cr4 > Cr1-Cr2 > Cr5-Cr19
Some simple observations concerning the test scenario
Acu
te in
hala
tion
(Cr1
)
Acu
te in
gestio
n (C
r2)
Ch
ron
ic (Cr3
)
Gen
eric d
isord
er (C
r4)
Perso
nal ca
re (C
r5)
Pain
t an
d co
lou
ring
(Cr6
)
Hou
se h
old
dete
rgen
t (Cr7
)
Pest co
ntro
l (Cr8
)
Solv
en
ts (Cr9
)
Vario
us (C
r10
)
43 47 18 17 6 66 39 24 20 38
•The majority of the 145 substances are ranked in the lower of the risk scenario ranking
•i.e. having criteria values of “1” on less than 50% of the ten criteria
•57 of the 145 substances have no or little relevance in relation to indoor exposure sources
•28 chemicals of the 78 risk assessed chemicals at EU level, and 30 of 63 the not yet risk assessed chemical, have no criteria values of “1” on the exposure estimator criteria, Cr5 to Cr10, for private consumption in households
Additional facts!
• The absolute top candidate, i.e. highest risk chemical, is benzene
• Except for 2-butoxyethanol and ethylbenzene, all top candidates are have positive scores on the chronic toxicity criteria
• Two top candidates, i.e. solvent naphta and stoddard solvent, are not on the EU priority lists of chemicals.
– These are examples of top scores in the Danish emission inventory with an indicated high frequency of use in private household conditions having criteria values of 1 on all exposure estimator criteria except for Cr5, personal use. Both are acute toxic by inhalation, Cr1, and show potential for chronic and irreversible health effects, Cr3.
• Two top candidates, i.e. 2-butoxyethanol and ethylbenzene, have not been subjected to RA at EU level but are on the priority lists.
– These substances show no chronic toxicity related to Cr3 and Cr4. Both substances have a high frequency of use in terms of consumer product categories.
The methodological Approach• The System Model
– increases awareness of boundary conditions of the risk problems• hypothesis driven approach• Ignorance
– increases awareness uncertainty induced by • delimitations of the problem three• approximation of sub-problems by criteria
– increases awareness data availability and aggregation level of the scenario description
• The Multi Criteria Ranking model – Input parameters / criteria values are binary
• thus only able to take one out of two possible values as “high” or “low” • which makes it possible to define an Event Space that includes all possible criteria data
values• . which makes it possible to identify substances that have the same criteria data value
combination
– the possibility of defining relative criteria importance prior to object ranking
– the ability of quantifying multi-attribute uncertainty
Thanks!
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