Methods for evaluating risk caused by ice throw from wind ... · Methods for evaluating risk caused...

Working together for a safer world

Methods for evaluating risk caused by ice throw from wind turbines

Helge Ausland Refsum, Lloyd's Register Consulting

Rolv Erlend Bredesen, Kjeller Vindteknikk

Winterwind 2015, Piteå, Sweden

©Lloyd’s Register Consulting

BBC News: Serbian minister hit by ice chunk

Source: BBC News 05.12.14

Ice – a significant safety risk

• Falling ice fatality potential

• 40-60 J: Serious injuries to forehead

• >80 J: Serious injury to body

• Impact energy depends on ice density, mass

and velocity. Impact of 40 J corresponds to

• 200 g of ice falling from 30-50 m

• 500 g of ice falling from 5-6 m

• Special competence is needed to understand

ice build up and shedding

• Damage potential depends on surroundings

Source: TNO Greenbook, CPR 16E, TNO ,1992

Example of accumulated ice at Tryvann communication mast, Oslo, 2014.

Current standard for safety distances is too simple

• Commonly used safety distance rule for icefall

from an operational wind turbine

Safety distance = 1,5 * (H+D)

H = hub height of wind turbine

D = rotor diameter

• Our simulations and observations have shown

that the actual safety distance may be both

longer and shorter

Source: IEA Wind 2012, Kjeller Vindteknikk

Ice chunk of around 1 kg, observed at Norwegian wind farm.

Precise mapping of ice risk – site specific approach

Metrological study

• Probability of ice in construction

• Estimated size and weight distribution of falling ice

Risk assessment

• Site risk for personnel operating the facility and third parties

• Individual risk for different exposures, e.g. pedestrians and vehicle passengers

Acceptance criteria

• Proposed criteria for different safety zones

• Based on Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) guidelines

• Final, site specific criteria determined by installation owner (or by law where applicable)

Risk reducing measures

• Recommendations for risk reducing measures

• Meteorological forecasting of ice throw probability

Probability distribution of falling ice used to map risk of fatality

Falling ice

• Calculated distribution of falling ice per square meter

• Estimated energy per ice cube

Protection

• Tunnels etc. may provide 100% protection

• Car: 10% risk of ice hitting wind screen, 140 J required to penetrate windscreen

Fatality criteria

• 10% risk of person being hit (covers area of ~20cm x 50cm) per square meter

• Potentially fatal if energy > 40 J

Risk of fatality

• Map of annual probability for loss of life (PLL) due to falling ice from facility

Suggested acceptance criteria for third person

• Key principle: Facility should not

increase risk to public significantly compared to daily risk in society

• Acceptance criteria are given as

annual probability for loss of life

(PLL) caused by the facility

• Exposure time is factored into the

acceptance criteria

• Based on Norwegian Directorate

for Civil Protection (DSB) guidelines

• Higher risk may be accepted for

personnel operating the facility,

given sufficient knowledge and

routines to handle the risk

Outside outer zone: Schools, kindergartens, shopping malls, hospitals, etc.

Facility

Inner zone: Ski tracks,

hiking areas

Middle zone: Public roads, industrial sites,

scattered houses

Outer zone: Houses, cafés,

shops, etc

Risk reducing measures

• Ice fall risk is typically concentrated to a few, short

periods per year

• Meteorological forecasting

• Ice sensors

• Risk reducing measures for third party

Clearly visible warning signs

Fencing around area, locked gates

Limit public activities

Re-routing of footpath, ski tracks etc.

• Risk reducing measures for operating personnel

Protective grids, roofs or tunnels

Personal protective equipment (PPE)

Warning system at Tryvann communication mast, Oslo, 2015.

Benefits from our approach

Planning

• Ensure safety by design

• Optimize installation footprint

Consent

• Increased certainty and understanding of risk level

• Solid documentation of the impact on the surroundings

Operation

• Ensure a safe working environment

• Minimize negative effects on third parties

Project

developers

Installation

owners

Operators

Explore our services

• Risk assessments and consequence modelling

• Recommended safety zones

• Recommendations of risk reducing measures

• Meteorological simulations

• Ice forecasting and warning systems

• Human factors and safe behaviour studies

www.lr.org/consulting

www.vindteknikk.no

References

1. Bredesen, R.E., Harstveit, K., Refsum, H.: IceRisk: "Assessment of risks associated with ice throw

and ice fall.", Winterwind 2014.

2. Bredesen, R.E.: Antennemast Tryvann, Oslo kommune – IceRisk - Beregninger av isnedfall med

validering. KVT Report, KVT/KH/2013/R079, Revisjon 15.5.2014, Kjeller Vindteknikk, 2014.

3. Refsum, H.A.: "Risikoanalyse – Antennemast Tryvann – Vurdering av risiko tilknyttet isnedfall",

104282/R1a, Lloyd's Register Consulting, 2014.

4. Bredesen, R.E. og Harstveit, K.: "Raskiftet, kommunene Åmot og Trysil, Hedmark – Konsekvenser

av atmosfærisk ising på ferdsel", KVT/REB/2013/R047, Kjeller Vindteknikk AS, 2013.

5. Refsum, H.A.: "Risikoanalyse – Iskast fra Raskiftet vindkraftverk",

104046/R1, Scandpower AS, 2013.

6. DSB Temaveileder ”Sikkerheten rundt anlegg som håndterer brannfarlige, reaksjonsfarlige,

trykksatte og eksplosjonsfarlige stoffer: Kriterier for akseptabel risiko”, Mai 2013.

7. Bredesen, R.E.: Antennemast Tryvann, Oslo kommune – IceRisk - Beregninger av isnedfall på bilvei.

KVT Report, KVT/REB/2014/R071, Kjeller Vindteknikk, 2014

8. Kjørri, M.: "Vurdering av risiko for bilister på Tryvannsveien i forbindelse med isnedfall fra

antennemast Tryvann", 105226/R1, Lloyd's Register Consulting, 2014.

Lloyd’s Register and variants of it are trading names of Lloyd’s Register Group Limited, its subsidiaries and affiliates.

Working together for a safer world

Helge Ausland Refsum Principal Consultant Norway / Kjeller T +47 95 04 90 85 E helge.refsum@lr.org Lloyd’s Register Consulting www.lr.org/consulting

Rolv Erlend Bredesen Advisor Norway / Kjeller T + 47 90 12 97 89 E rolv.bredesen@vindteknikk.no Kjeller Vindteknikk AS www.vindteknikk.no

Recent example of results from Norwegian wind farm

Methods for evaluating risk caused by ice throw from wind ... · Methods for evaluating risk caused...

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