MEASURING RETURN MIGRATION: SOME PRELIMINARY FINDINGS IN TIMES OF CRISIS 1 Jean Christophe Dumont...

MEASURING RETURN MIGRATION:

SOME PRELIMINARY FINDINGS IN

TIMES OF CRISIS

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Jean Christophe DumontOECD, Head of International Migration Division, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs

UNECE, Work session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, 17-19 October 2012

Outline

1. Defining and measuring return migration

2. The magnitude of return migration

3. Return migration in times of crisis

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Defining and Measuring Return Migration (1/7)

• What is a returning migrant?• Basic definition (adapted from UNSD 1998): persons

returning to their country of origin (A) after having lived abroad (B)

• Time dimension in B:• Permanent migration/Temporary migration

• Visit: not a migration

• Time dimension in A: • Permanent return/Temporary return

• Visit: not a return

• Country of origin (and return):• Country of birth

• Country of citizenship

• Other country of usual residence

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• What is a returning migrant?• Legal dimension of return:

• Choosen

• Assisted

• Forced

• Observed return may be part of a longer or more complex migratory process:• Back and forth

• Circular migration (individual level or group level)

• Secondary migration (actual destination is not the origin country)

• « Return » of second generation

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Defining and Measuring Return Migration (2/7)

• How to estimate return migration?• Direct measurement of exits/returns using

longitudinal datas• Population registers

• Continuous monitoring of de jure population (total or foreigners)

• Includes or may be linked with demographic information

• Registration at arrival, deregistration at departure statistics on both inflows and outflows

• Inconvenients:

• Registration / deregistration based on prospective duration of stay / absence: people can leave the country and remain in the register

• Usually, does not include illegal residents

• Record exits, but often not the precise destination

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Defining and Measuring Return Migration (3/7)

• Direct measurement of exits/returns using longitudinal datas– Border collection

• Data collected at ports, airports, etc.• Entry data usually more complete than exit data• Little demographic information• Example: International Passenger Survey (UK)

– Other administrative sources• Residence permits• Work permits• Deportations• Tax or social security data

useful, but partial and count procedures rather than people

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Defining and Measuring Return Migration (4/7)

• Direct measurement of exits/returns using longitudinal datas

• Detailed questionnaire, demographic and economic information

• May include questions on migration history of household members, on members abroad (but miss full households abroad)

• Panel: tracking entries and exits from sample over time• Issues: size and stability of sample

longitudinal surveys are useful to understand the causes and consequences of return migration, not that much to count return migrants

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Defining and Measuring Return Migration (5/7)

• Indirect measurement of returns to country of origin– Censuses of emigration countries: the 5-year question

• Country of residence 5 years ago, focus on people born in the country

• By definition, information on origin and destination• Ability to compare return migrants with non-migrants • If matched with census in immigration country: ability to add

current migrants to the comparison• Inconvenient: not easy to find microdata (but things are

improving)

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Defining and Measuring Return Migration (6/7)

• Indirect measurement of departures from the country of destination– Censuses of immigration countries: the population cell

method• Comparing the size of a given population between two successive

censuses • Advantages : exhaustivity, good deal of demographic information • Inconvenients: low frequency, time lag, only capture exits (no

mention of destination), does not capture complex moves

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Defining and Measuring Return Migration (7/7)

The Magnitude of Return Migration (1/2)

• Indirect measurement of departures from selected European countries, based on LFS– Challenges:

• Improvement of the survey over time

• Variations in non-reponses rates regarding place of birth/duration of stay

• Concentration of responses about length of stay (at 5 years of residence)

Stocks of cohorts are volatile

must be smoothed to estimate retention rates

– Smoothing method:• Construction of an envelope around the original cohort

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The Magnitude of Return Migration (2/2)

• Indirect measurement of departures from selected European countries, based on LFS

United Kingdom

DenmarkBelgium

Ireland

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Return Migration in Times of Crisis (1/4)

• Determinants of return migration (OECD 2008, Part III)

– Failure to integrate into the host country and changes the in economic situation of the home country

– The Individuals’ preference for their home country– Achievement of savings objective– Greater employment opportunities in their home country

Prevailing economic/labour market conditions in destination countries

• Uncertain impact of economic crisis – Relative size of the shock (origin vs destination

countries)– Effect of the crisis on the possibility to remain– Likelihood to be (re)admitted in the future

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Return Migration in Times of Crisis (2/4)

• Return migration during past economic crisis– Scarse evidence; mixed results:

• Germany, oil crisis of the 1970s: most of migrants are reluctant to leave (10/15% of guest workers went back to their home countries) (Dobson, 2009)

• Europe, economic crisis of the 1970s: family reunification of temporary migrant workers; lower return rates in the 1980s (OECD 2009, Castles 2009)

• United States, economic crisis of the 1930s: negative net migration; significant returns to Mexico (OECD, 2009)

• Asian Financial crisis, 1997-99: no repercussions on labour migration outflows in the region (Hugo, 2002)

– Issue: identifying the impact of changes in economic conditions on migration outflows while migration policies foster returns/limit entries

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Return Migration in Times of Crisis (3/4)

• The impact of the recent downturn– Peculiarity of the 2008 economic crisis

• Severity/quick diffusion/hits sectors where immigrants are concentrated High returns? Variations across countries and migrant groups

– Propensity to return depends on individual and socioeconomic characteristics of migrants

• Job stability, ability to save– determines Bolivians migrants to return from Spain (Bastia, 2011)

• Male labour migrants, 18- to 40-year-old migrants low educated– 1/3 reduction in migration flows from the US to Mexico (Rendall et al.,

2011)

• Outflows differs for EU-12 and non-EU migrants in Europe– Ireland, 2008 : +16.7% in the outflows of non-EU migrants,

+57% for EU12 migrants (EHRC and MPI, 2009)

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Return Migration in Times of Crisis (4/4)

• The impact of the recent downturn

Preliminary estimates of re-emigration rates after 5 years of residence in selected European countries (for cohorts entering between 2000-

2005)

• Results to take with caution, in line with re-emigration rates for the period 1993-98 (OECD, 2008, Part III)

• Little changes in re-emigration rates before/after the crisis• Exceptions: Ireland(19%35%), UK (18%24%)

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Conclusion

• The methodology presents limitations but enables to get an updated appraisal of re-emigration

• Results need to be expanded:– To other non European OECD countries

– By migrants groups, notably by country/region of origin

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