ChinaAg.org Market Intelligence on China’s Agriculture & Food … · 2019-01-11 · Market...

Info@ChinaAg.orgChinaAg.org Market Intelligence on China’s Agriculture & Food Industry

China Tree Nut Market

ChinaAg.org Market Intelligence on China’s Agriculture & Food Industry Info@ChinaAg.org

ChinaAg Overviewo Presentation will focus on Chinese demand for macadamias, pecans,

almonds, walnuts, and pistachios

Key Takeaways o Tree nuts can be grouped into “growth” nuts (pistachios, almonds) “neutral”

nuts (macadamias, pecans) and “declining” nuts (walnuts) based on supply and demand trends in China

o Across all nut types, Chinese consumers and distributors exhibit a strong preference for in-shell nuts over shelled (kernel) nuts

o Hong Kong remains the most important trade hub for nuts, with its focus on ASEAN re-exports over mainland trans-shipments

o E-commerce platforms have emerged as an important seller/marketer of nuts, with annual e-commerce nuts sales estimated at AUD 1.55 billion

Macadamias (夏威夷果)

Chinese Imports by Customs Zone (Port, City)

Key Pointso Hong Kong imports of in-shell declined, while mainland

ports (Guangzhou, Gongbei, & Shanghai) surged in 2015o Hong Kong & Gongbei kernel imports had a slight recovery,

while Shanghai and Dalian were small and stable markets

Hong Kong Monthly Imports: 2014 to 2016

Key Pointo Hong Kong in-shell imports are highly seasonal (May-Nov.),

while kernel imports rise slightly over the same period

Transshipments: Imports & Re-Exports

Key Pointso Hong Kong in-shell re-exports to Vietnam surged in 2014, but

have stagnated since o Hong Kong kernel re-exports to Vietnam progressively

increased, with little sent to the mainland

Tree Nuts: Re-Exports

Pecans (碧根果,美国山核桃）)

Chinese Imports by Customs Zone & Hong Kong Monthly Imports

Key Pointso Growing import market share for mainland China o Hong Kong imports are extremely seasonal (peak in Nov.)

Key Pointso 2015, Vietnam supplanted Hong Kong as the top destinationo Exports to mainland China were miniscule with 75 MTs (Oct.

2013) and 21 MTs (May 2014)

Almonds (巴旦木)

Key Pointso Hong Kong imports rebounded in late 2016 for both in-shell

and kernel almondso Guangzhou and Shanghai are emerging as import

destinations for both formats

Almonds (巴旦木)

Hong Kong Monthly Imports: 2014 to 2016

Key Pointo In-shell imports are highly seasonal (Sept. to Jan.), while

kernel imports are much more stable

Almonds (巴旦木)

Key Pointso #2 re-exported nut to mainland Chinao Hong Kong re-exports to Vietnam grew for both typeso Mainland China’s kernel imports from Hong Kong and

abroad progressively increased

Walnuts (核桃)

Key Pointso Overall decline for in-shell walnuts, while kernel import

market was statico 2014 surge for kernel was due to influx of Kyrgyz walnuts

Walnuts (核桃)

Hong Kong Monthly Imports

Key Pointo In-shell imports are highly seasonal (Oct. to Jan.), while

kernel imports are generally flat

Walnuts (核桃)

Key Pointso Hong Kong re-exports to Vietnam declined in-line with

overall importso Mainland China’s imports were stagnant, with very little

uptake from Hong Kong

Pistachios (开心果)

Chinese Imports by Customs Zone & Hong Kong Monthly Imports

Key Pointso Hong Kong imports recovered in 2016, while mainland China

(esp. Guangzhou) recorded annual import growtho Peak imports occur from Oct. to Jan.

Key Pointso Number #1 re-exported nut to mainland Chinao Hong Kong re-exports to Vietnam recovered in 2016, while

re-exports to the mainland annually increased

“In Season” Holidays for Nuts

Traditional Chinese Holidayso September (重阳节): Double Ninth

Festival (Visit with grandparents, mountain climbing)

o January-February (春节): Chinese New Year (Spring Festival) is a big gift giving holiday within China

New Chinese Holidayso November (光棍节): Guanggun Jie

(Singles’ Day or “Double 11”) is a major shopping holiday within China that was launched in 2009 by Alibaba’s Taobao (akin to “Black Friday”)

o December: “Double 12” (Dec 12) shopping festival launched in 2011 (akin to “Cyber Monday”)

Alibaba Group vs. JD.com

Alibaba Group: Taobao, Tmallo May 2003: Taobao, owned by Alibaba Group, was launchedo April 2008: Tmall.com was spun off from Taobaoo Early 2016: Alibaba’s Tmall had 58% share of China’s e-commerce market,

while JD.com had a 23% market shareo July 2016: Stahmann Farms launches its product line on Tmallo February 2017: Alibaba Group opened its Australian and New Zealand

headquarters in Melbourne, Australia

Tencent Holdings: JD.com, Walmarto 1998: Tencent Holdings (November), an internet focused service company

and Jingdong Mall (aka JD.com, June) are founded o March 2014: Tencent Holdings purchased a 15% stake in JD.como Nov. 2015: JD.com sued Alibaba in a Beijing court over unfair biz practiceso June 2016: Walmart sold Yihaodian (e-commerce grocery website) to JD.com

in exchange for a 5% stake in JD.como October 2016: Walmart’s share in JD.com rose from 5.9% to 10.8%

E-commerce Nut Suppliers

Major Nut Companies that Market Onlineo Three Squirrels (三只松鼠): Founded in 2012, Three Squirrels is a market

leader and, in 2016, had a 11.8% share of China’s e-commerce confectionery/snack (direct to consumer) market

o November 11, 2016: Three Squirrels reported CNY 500 million (~AUD 94 million) in Singles’ Day sales

o Baicaowei (百草味): Founded in 2003, the company follows Three Squirrels with a 7.8% share

o LPPZ (良品铺子): Founded in 2006, LPPZ had a 4.2% share of China’s e-commerce snack market

o Shaanxi Meinong Group:: Founded in 2009, the company had a 1.1% shareo Shanghai Laiyifen (来伊份): Founded in, the Shanghai-listed company had a

1% shareo Chacha Food (洽洽食品) : Founded in 2001, Chacha had a 1% share and

helped launch California’s Paramount Farms entry into the Chinese market, but entered the e-commerce market relatively late (July 2015)

Major Nut Distributors

Going Forward

o “Growth” nuts - Pistachios, Almondso Pistachios: Mainland China has yet to fully recover to 2012 import

volume levelso Almonds: Almond Board of California campaign w/Chacha & Baicaowei

o “Neutral” nuts - Macadamias, Pecanso Macadamia: ChAFTA will bring tariffs down to 0% in Jan. 2019, around

the same time a boost in Chinese production is expectedo Pecans: Flat demand for in-shell, but kernel saw a import bump in 2016

o “Declining” – Walnuts, especially in-shell walnutso Increasing Chinese output, Chilean FTA and in-shell market access

o In-shell preference by Chinese consumers/distributors, but growth potential for shelled almonds, macadamias, and perhaps pecans

o ASEAN-Hong Kong FTA: Negotiations may be concluded shortly

ChinaAg.org Info@ChinaAg.org

ChinaAg.org Market Intelligence on China’s Agriculture & Food … · 2019-01-11 · Market...

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