Mapping The Social Significance of Phenologic Changes BRITTANY ORKNEY ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: National...

Mapping The Social Mapping The Social Significance of Phenologic Significance of Phenologic

ChangesChangesBRITTANY ORKNEYBRITTANY ORKNEY

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS:ACKNOWLEDGMENTS:

National Phenology NetworkNational Phenology NetworkJake Weltzin, Ph.D.Jake Weltzin, Ph.D.

Mark LoslebenMark LoslebenBarron Orr, Ph.D.Barron Orr, Ph.D.

PHENOLOGYPHENOLOGY

The study of the The study of the seasonal timing of seasonal timing of cyclical life eventscyclical life events National Phenology National Phenology

NetworkNetwork Monitors changes in Monitors changes in

natural environment natural environment through seasonal through seasonal timing of events.timing of events.

CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE

2007 Report from 2007 Report from Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Change (IPCC) Warming of the Warming of the

climate system is climate system is unequivocal unequivocal

COCO22 levels in the levels in the atmosphere are atmosphere are increasingincreasing

NASA Earth Observatory http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/Giants/Arrhenius/arrhenius_2.html

Phenologic AdaptationsPhenologic Adaptations

Associated Press coverage by Seth Associated Press coverage by Seth BorensteinBorenstein– Scientific data revealing earlier spring Scientific data revealing earlier spring

events in the United Statesevents in the United States Identifies pressing issues at hand as Identifies pressing issues at hand as

current trends stray from historical current trends stray from historical datadata

Map of Earlier SpringMap of Earlier Spring

Connecting Phenology to SocietyConnecting Phenology to Society

Society’s Society’s celebration and celebration and reliance on reliance on phenologic eventsphenologic events– Social impacts of Social impacts of

changing changing phenologiesphenologies

Popular Press SearchPopular Press Search

Systematic search of popular press on how Systematic search of popular press on how climate-phenologic change is affecting society.climate-phenologic change is affecting society.– Searched a number of online databases (i.e., typical Searched a number of online databases (i.e., typical

Google searches, NewsBank)Google searches, NewsBank)– Used a variety of keywords (e.g., blooming and Used a variety of keywords (e.g., blooming and

warming)warming)– Tracked and recorded search efforts (for repeatability)Tracked and recorded search efforts (for repeatability)– Compiled in a simple Excel database (for analysis)Compiled in a simple Excel database (for analysis)

Example: Tree Quality and Example: Tree Quality and Baseball BatsBaseball Bats

Pa., Mi., IlPa., Mi., Il– Decreasing quality Decreasing quality

of Ash Wood in the of Ash Wood in the manufacturing of manufacturing of Baseball Bats.Baseball Bats.

– Harming small town Harming small town economieseconomies

Source: Source: Balmy Weather May Balmy Weather May Bench a Baseball StapleBench a Baseball Staple. New . New

York Times- July 11, 2007York Times- July 11, 2007

Image from:http://www.justbats.com/images/products/item-wo08-wp243.jpg

Example: Extending Hunting Example: Extending Hunting SeasonsSeasons

MissouriMissouri– Hunting seasoned Hunting seasoned

doubled in lengthdoubled in length– Threat of altered Threat of altered

migration routemigration route

Source: Source: In Duck Blinds, Visions of In Duck Blinds, Visions of Global Warming.Global Warming. New York Times- New York Times-

December 11, 2007December 11, 2007

Image from: http://www.ducks.org/Hunting/MigrationMap/3602/DUMigrationMapReturnsFall2008.html

Accessible ResultsAccessible Results

Tabular data are not enoughTabular data are not enough Public access and understanding is Public access and understanding is

more likely using mapsmore likely using maps Creating a Google “My Map” and made Creating a Google “My Map” and made

publically accessiblepublically accessible

Accessible ResultsAccessible Results

Conclusions Conclusions

Climate change is happening and Climate change is happening and affecting phenologic calendarsaffecting phenologic calendars

These changes are impacting societyThese changes are impacting society Bridging the science and society at Bridging the science and society at

largelarge

Questions?Questions?

Special Thanks To:Special Thanks To:The National Phenology NetworkThe National Phenology Network

Jake WeltzinJake Weltzin

Mark LoslebenMark Losleben