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ECO200-Introduction to
Development Economics
Dr. Seeme Mallick
Faculty of BusinessAdministration
Department of ManagementSciences
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786-Lecture-11
Module 3. Poverty, IncomeDistribution and PopulationTransition
Todaro chapters:
6-Population Growth and
Economic Development: Causes,Consequences, and Controversies
Perkins chapters:
7-Population 2
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6-Population Growth and EconomicDevelopment: Causes, Consequences, and
Controversies
A. The Basic Issue: Population Growth and the Quality of Life
B. A Review of Numbers: Population Growth Past, Presentand Future
World Population Growth through History
Structure of the Worlds Population The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth
A. The Demographic Transition
D. The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: TheMalthusian and Household Models
The Malthusian Population Trap
Criticisms of the Malthusian Model
The Microeconomic Household Theory of Fertility
The Demand for Children in Developing Countries
Some Empirical Evidence
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6-Population Growth and EconomicDevelopment: Causes, Consequences, and
Controversies
E. The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflictingopinions
Population Growth Is Not a Real Problem
A Deliberately Contrived False Issue
A Desirable phenomenon Population Growth Is a Real Problem
The Empirical Argument: Seven Negative Consequencesof Population Growth
F. Goals and Objectives: Toward a Consensus
G. Some Policy Approaches
What Developing Countries Can Do
What the Developed Countries Can Do: Resources,Population and the Global Environment
How Developed Countries Can Assist DevelopingCountries with Their Population Programs
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6-Population Growth and EconomicDevelopment: Causes, Consequences, and
Controversies
Questions for Discussion
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B. A Review of Numbers:Population Growth Past,
Present and Future Q1. Explain the notion of the hidden
momentum of Population Growth.Why is this an important conceptprojecting future population trends indifferent developing nation?
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C. The DemographicTransition
Q2. Describe briefly the theory of thedemographic transition. At whatstage in this transition do mostdeveloping countries seem to be?Explain your answer.
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D. The Causes of High Fertility in DevelopingCountries: The Malthusian and Household
Models
Q3a. Explain what is The MalthusianPopulation Trap?
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D. The Causes of High Fertility in DevelopingCountries: The Malthusian and Household
Models
Explaining the Malthusian Trap:
The Malthusian Trap is the theory that, aspopulation growth is ahead of agricultural
growth, there must be a stage at whichthe food supply is inadequate for feedingthe population.
This was originally devised by RobertMalthus in An Essay on the Principle ofPopulation in 1798, arguing that foodsupply expansion is linear whereas human
growth is exponential.
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D. The Causes of High Fertility in DevelopingCountries: The Malthusian and Household
Models
However, the Green Revolution in1945 is an example of how mankindcan adapt to make food production
more efficient.
Nevertheless there must be a pointat which it cannot become any more
efficient and cause some degree offamine, not to mention thedeforestation, soil erosion and
pollution.
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D. The Causes of High Fertility in DevelopingCountries: The Malthusian and Household
Models
The idea of Malthusian Catastrophe has also beenextended to energy: since energy consumption isincreasing at a faster rate than population and themajority energy comes from non-renewable
sources, it would appear to be falling into aMalthusian Trap sooner than food production.
However, there are clear alternatives in that casesuch as nuclear energy whereas in food there are
almost certainly none. Malthus theory has its critics such as Julian Simon,
whose counterarguments include the progress ofthought and study in the field and the economys
ability to the increase production when there is ainancial incentive.
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h C f i h ili i l i
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D. The Causes of High Fertility in DevelopingCountries: The Malthusian and Household
Models
Q3b. What are the bases for theCriticism of Malthusian Trap?
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Criticism of Malthusian Trap
In the first place, it is pointed out that Malthus'spessimistic conclusions have not been borne outby the history of Western European countries.
The gloomy forecast made by Malthus about the
economic conditions of future generations ofmankind has not been realized in the Westernworld.
Population has failed to grow as rapidly as
predicted by Malthus and production hasincreased tremendously because of the rapidadvances in technology.
As a result, living standards of the people have
risen instead of falling as was predicted by
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Criticism of Malthusian Trap
Secondly, Malthusian theory of population isbased upon the law of diminishing returns asapplied to agriculture.
On the basis of this law Malthus asserted that food
production could not keep pace with populationgrowth.
By making rapid advances in technology andaccumulating capital in larger quantity, advanced
countries have been able to postpone the stage ofdiminishing returns.
By using fertilizers, better seeds and otheragricultural machinery ,they have increased
production greatly.
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Criticism of Malthusian Trap
In fact, in most of the advanced countriesthe rate of increase of food production hasbeen much greater than the rate of
population growth.Thus, inventions and improvements in the
methods of production have belied thegloomy forecast of Malthus by holding the
law of diminishing returns in check almostindefinitely.
The remarkable progress of the recent
green revolution in many under-developed
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Criticism of Malthusian Trap
Malthusian theory of population compared thepopulation growth with the increase in foodproduction alone.
Malthus held that because land was available, in
fixed quantity, food production could not risefaster than population.
But he should have considered all types ofproduction and he should have compared the
growth of population not merely with the increasein food supply but with the increase in the totalwealth of a country.
England did feel the shortage of land and food.
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Criticism of Malthusian Trap
If England had been forced tosupport her population entirely fromher own soil, there can be little doubt
that England would haveexperienced a series of famines bywhich her growth of population would
have been checked.
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Criticism of Malthusian Trap
Some critics of Malthus, like KarlMarx, argued that Malthus failed torecognize the potential of human
population to increase food supply.Malthus is accused by many to havefailed to comprehend man's ability to
use science and technology toincrease food supply to meet theneeds of an increasing population.
hi h h h h f f d l
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This graph shows how the rate of food supply mayvary but never reaches its carrying capacity becauseevery time it is getting near, there is an invention or
development that causes the food supply toincrease.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacityRecommended