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Large PelagicsSurvey Workshop
Large Pelagics Survey TeamFisheries Statistics Division (ST1)Office of Science & Technology
NOAA - Fisheries
May 28, 2021
Outline1. Introduction of LPS Team
2. Survey Design & Estimation Methods
3. Operations & Estimate Production
4. LPS Redesign Project
LPS TeamNOAA Fisheries
Office of Science and Technology (OST)
• Yong-Woo Lee, Ph.D.: LPS Task Manager/ Statistician
• Daemian Schreiber: LPS Operations Coordinator
• Tony Kaufman: Data Analyst & Programmer
• John Foster: Chief of Recreational Fisheries Statistics Branch
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3
NOAA Fisheries - Atlantic HMS
Office of Sustainable Fisheries
● Atlantic HMS Management Division
● Regulation and Management
● ICCAT reporting● Vessel Permitting● Tournament
Registration
Southeast Fisheries Science Center
● Highly Migratory Species Branch
● Stock assessments● Indices of Abundance● Population dynamics
and life history research
● Tournament Reporting
Office of Science and Technology
● Recreational Fisheries Statistics Branch
● LPS● Catch Card Census
programs● Quarterly Billfish
Accounting support
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4
Large Pelagics Survey (LPS)
• Estimate catch and effort for Atlantic highly migratory species (HMS) and other large pelagic species from offshore recreational fisheries in the Mid- and North Atlantic regions from June through October
• Complex design using complemented surveys approach
• Specialized to cover Atlantic bluefin tuna and related uncommon or pulse fisheries
• Used for stocks assessments, regulations, quota monitoring
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6
LPS (cont.)• Atlantic Tunas Convention Act (1975)
• HMS vessel-based permit is required, and reporting is mandatory
• Fulfills U.S. obligations to International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT)
• Link to detailed technical MRIP design and estimation document (see Section 7. LPS) (https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/survey-design-and-statistical-methods-estimation-recreational-fisheries-catch-and)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7
Species in LPSTunas
bluefin tuna (by size class), bigeye, albacore, yellowfin, skipjack, little tunny, Atlantic bonito, blackfin tuna
Sharks
threshers, makos, hammerheads, blue, white, porbeagle, sandbar, bignose, dusky, silky, night, blacktip, spinner, bonnethead, bull, oceanic whitetip, tiger, sand tiger, Atl. sharpnose
Billfish & Swordfish
white marlin, blue marlin, sailfish, roundscalespearfish, longbill spearfish, swordfish
Other pelagics
dolphin, greater amberjack, wahoo
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8
LPS Coverage
• Private & Charter boats
• 10 States ME-VA
• June - October
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9
LPS Survey Components• LPTS: Telephone Survey
• Effort (vessel trips)• Separate surveys for private boat and charter boat modes
• LPIS: Intercept Survey• Catch rates• Detailed trip characteristics
• LPBS: Biological Sampling• Specimen collections for assessment, life history and population
dynamics studies• Opportunistic, data not used in catch and effort estimation
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10
LPTS - Private• Estimate effort (numbers of vessel trips) for private boat mode
• List frame telephone survey
• Sample frame: HMS vessel permit list (Angling & General permit categories)
• Reporting is mandatory
• Sample stratified by state, month, two-week reference period
• Maine-Virginia, June-October
• Advance notification letters
• Calling for selected vessels done in the week immediately following the two-week reference period
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11
LPTS - Private (cont.)• Interviewer administered questionnaire via CATI
• Trip profile questionnaire format
• Detail information collected for each trip (examples):
Fishing access site
Primary target species (or size class)
Tournament
Limited catch data (bluefin and BAYS tunas; select billfish and shark species)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12
LPTS - Charter• Estimate effort (numbers of vessel trips) for charter mode
• Conducted as add-on to For-Hire Survey (FHS); list frame telephone survey
• Sample frame: vessels with HMS Charter/Headboat permit in the FHS frame
• Sample stratified by state, month, one-week reference period Maine-Virginia June-October
• Advance notification letters
• Calling for selected vessels done in the week immediately following the one-week reference period
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13
Number of HMS Permits in 2020 by State
No. o
f Per
mits
No. o
f Per
mits
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14
LPTS Sample Sizes & Response Rates• 2019 Sample Sizes
• PR completed interviews: 5,063
• CH completed interviews: 3,356
• 2019 Response Rates• PR: 64%
• CH: 59%
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15
LPIS• Estimate catch rates by species and disposition (catch type)
• Dockside survey of captains returning from large pelagic fishing trip
• Complex design employing stratification, clustering, and unequal selection probabilities
• Stratified by state, month, and fishing mode
• Maine-Virginia
• June-October
• PR, CH
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16
LPIS (cont.)Information collected:• Catch counts per vessel trip by species and disposition
• Vessel ID and HMS permit information
• Boat effort (number of lines, people, hours)
• Primary & secondary target species
• Fishing location (miles offshore, latitude/longitude, area)
• Fishing method
• Water temperature, depth
• Individual fish observations (length, sex)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17
LPIS Sample Sizes & Response Rates
• 2019 Sample Sizes• Assignments completed: 2,344
• PR vessel intercepts: 2,417
• CH vessel intercepts: 1,606
• 2019 Response Rate• 98%
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18
LPBS• Biological Sampling
• Collects otoliths, dorsal spines, muscle tissue & gonad samples
• Opportunistic sampling
• 150 assignments per year
• Focused on bluefin tuna, but other species are collected as well
• Samples are sent to Panama City, FL lab (SEFSC) for processing
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19
LPTS Effort Estimation
LPTS Private Boat
Trips
LPTS-PRAverage number of
trips per boatx Total HMS-
PR permitted boats
LPTS-CHAverage number of
trips per boat
LPTS Charter boat
Tripsx Total HMS-CH
permitted boats
❖LPTS provides in-state fishing effort estimates for boats on the permit frame. In a separate step, the estimates are adjusted to account for off-frame effort using data from the LPIS.
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20
LPIS Estimation• Catch rates
• Average catch (numbers of fish) per vessel trip
• By state area, month, fishing mode (private, charter)
• By species (and by size class for bluefin tuna)
• By disposition (catch type: kept, released alive, discarded dead)
• LPTS coverage correction factors• Proportion of intercepted trips that are in-state and permitted
• Accounts for trips not covered by LPTS
• By state area, month, fishing mode (private, charter)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21
LPS Estimation
Total LPSCatch Estimates
Catch Rates (Catch/Vessel Trip)
Total LPS Fishing Effort (Vessel Trips)
X
LPISLPTSOff-frame Coverage Correction Factor
• Link to detailed technical MRIP design and estimation document (see Section 7. LPS) (https://media.fisheries.noaa.gov/2021-03/MRIPSurveyDesign%26StatisticalMethods_March_2021_FINAL.pdf)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 22
Annual LPS Operations(April)
Site Register ReviewSurvey Materials ReviewKick-Off Meeting
(May)LPIS Interviewer training
(June - October)
Conduct of LPIS and LPTSMid-season Data Review Meeting
(November - April)
Final Data Review MeetingFinal Estimates
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 25
LPIS Sites
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26
Interviews of Trips Targeting LPS Returning to Site Clusters
INTERVIEW TIME (hr)
MD
MA
NJ
VA
NY
DE
NH
RI
ME
CT
Hour of Interview by State
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27
LPIS in Action…
(Cape Ann Marina, Gloucester, MA. September 2018)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 28
LPIS in Action (Continued)(Rye Harbor State Marina, Rye, NH Sep. 2018)
Google Earth
NOAA Fisheries
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 29
BFT Size Class Categories❖ Reporting requirement by ICCAT
R – RecreationalC – Commercial
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 30
LPS Quality Assurance• Interviewer training
✔ Species identification✔ Survey objectives, design, interviewing procedures✔ Experienced/trained CATI interviewers
• Supervision✔ Silent Monitoring/Remote Screen Viewing (during LPTS interviews)✔ Dockside-unannounced visits to samplers on assignment by FS✔ Validation phone calls to interviewed captains/owners (LPIS)
• Optical Character Recognition-assisted entry of interview forms
• Data error checking computer programs
• Weekly calls and mid-season and final data review meetings
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 31
LPS Estimates (Recap)Effort • By boat type: private, charter• By month: June-October• By area: VA, MD/DE, NJ-North, NJ-South, NY, CT/RI, MA,
NH/ME
Catch• By boat type: private, charter• By catch type: kept, released dead, released alive• By species (including specific bluefin tuna size classes)• By month: June-October• By area: VA, MD/DE, NJ-North, NJ-South, NY, CT/RI, MA,
NH/ME
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 32
LPS Web Query Toolhttps://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/data-tools/recreational-fisheries-statistics-queries
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 33
Annual Effort (2002-2020)(All months, All states, All Modes)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 34
Annual Effort (2002-2020)(All months, All states, By Modes)
Private
Charter
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 35
August Effort (2002-2020)Massachusetts
Private
Charter
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 36
Annual BFT All Sizes Landings 2010-2020All Modes, All States, Cumulative Jun-Oct
109876
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 37
BFT All by Size Class
Annual Landings 2010-2020All Modes, All States, Cumulative
Jun-Oct
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 38
BFT All by Size Class
Annual Released
Alive 2010-2020
All Modes, All States, Cumulative
Jun-Oct
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 39
YFT Annual Landings 2010-2020All Modes, All States, Cumulative Jun-Oct
(70,183)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 40
Dolphin Annual Landings 2010-2020All Modes, All States, Cumulative Jun-Oct
(80,669)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 41
Redesign Project Tasks
1. Baseline Assessments & New Survey Design Development
2. Pilot Test of New Survey Design in the Field (LPPS)
3. MRIP Certification & Calibration of Historical Estimates
4. Full Implementation of New Design
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 45
Tasks & Timeline(presented in AP meeting, Sep-2018)
7 YEARS
* Note the time overlaps between the phases
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 46
Tasks & Timeline(current status, May-2021)
7 YEARS
* Note the time overlaps between the phases
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 47
Current Status of LPPS
• LPS States for Pilot Testing Surveys (LPPS)
1. YR 2020: MA, DE, MD (completed)
2. YR 2021: MA, RI, CT, VA
3. YR 2022: NH, NY, NJ
• Data from pilot surveys will provide benchmarks for calibrations
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 48
Motivations for “LPS Redesign”1) MRIP Certification for Survey Designs, Estimation
Methods, & Data “Standards”*MRIP (Marine Recreational Information Program) is a data collection and analysis initiative by NOAA Fisheries to help implementing a national network of recreational fishing surveys, based on the state-regional-federal partnership. (https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/recreational-fishing-data/about-marine-recreational-information-program)
2) HMS Implementation Plan identified LPS Redesign as #1 Priority (https://media.fisheries.noaa.gov/dam-migration/mrip-regional-implementation-plan-atlantic-hms-2018.pdf)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 49
Issues in Current LPIS
1. Departures from probability-based sampling
2. Mismatches between Design vs. Estimation
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 50
Departures from probability-based sampling in LPIS (#1)
Coverage gaps
• Multi site-clusters Variable sampling choice of sites within site-clusters
• Variable sampling durations2 – 8 hours per assignment based on fishing activity
• Missing mornings & nights Survey tends to be afternoons for sampling efficiency
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 51
Number of Site-Clusters in current LPIS(multi-site cluster sampling approach)
Avg. Num. of sites / clusterNu
m. of
clus
ters
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 52
Departures from probability-based sampling in LPIS (#2)
Coverage gaps
• Multi site-clusters Variable sampling choice of sites within site-clusters
• Variable sampling durations2 – 8 hours per assignment based on fishing activity
• Missing mornings & nights Survey tends to be afternoons for sampling efficiency
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 53
Variable Assignment Durations
Year
Hour
s
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 54
Departures from probability-based sampling in LPIS (#3)
Coverage gaps
• Multi site-clusters Variable sampling choice of sites within site-clusters
• Variable sampling durations2 – 8 hours per assignment based on fishing activity
• Missing mornings & nights Survey tends to be afternoons for sampling efficiency
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 55
Time Distributions: LPTS vs. LPIS
24-Hour Time
Data: 2011-2020
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 56
Mismatches between Design vs. Estimation
LPIS Design• Complex stratified multi-stage with site-clusters
• Unequal probability sampling without replacement (PPSWOR), based on fishing pressure of clusters and day-type (e.g., weekdays vs. weekends, tournaments vs. non-tournaments)
• Variable assignment duration (2 - 8 hours)
LPIS Estimation
• Ignores major design components
• Assumes equal probability sampling
• Unweighted estimation (may lead to optimistically higher precision than actual)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 57
LPIS Site Selection (PPSWOR design)
Relative fishing pressure per site-cluster
% drawn assignment
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 58
Mismatches between Design vs. EstimationLPIS Design• Complex stratified multi-stage with site-clusters
• Unequal probability sampling without replacement (PPSWOR), based on fishing pressure of clusters and day-type (e.g., weekdays vs. weekends, tournaments vs. non-tournaments)
• Variable assignment duration (2 - 8 hours)
LPIS Estimation• Ignores major design components
• Assumes equal probability sampling
• Unweighted estimation (may lead to optimistically higher precision than actual)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 59
Improvements with Redesign
GoalImprove intercept survey design to be more statistically valid & robust,while maintaining sampling productivity
Improvements • Probability sampling with single-site approach and fixed time intervals
• (list continues in next slide…)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 60
Single-Site Sampling Approach (LPPS)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 61
Fixed Time Intervals
3 hours per assignment
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 62
Improvements with Redesign (cont.)
• Combining fixed probability sampling with “adaptive” sampling
• Adaptive sampling allows for movement of a subset of assignments based on field conditions (e.g. weather, fishery conditions, regulations)
• Adaptive sampling should help maintaining sampling productivity
• Inclusion probabilities for adaptive samples are statistically estimated
• Computer simulations confirmed the unbiased estimates with relatively high precision
• Collaborated with MRIP statistics expert consultants from Colorado State University
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 63
Tasks & Timeline(current status, May-2021)
7 YEARS
* Note the time overlaps between the phases
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 64
Factors for Potential Delays• Need for additional design work, based on pilot survey results?
• Need for additional benchmarking field surveys?
• Delays in MRIP certification process?
• Desires to extend new survey to more months (e.g., early appearance of BFT in LPS season off of NY/NJ)
• Desires to extend new survey to more states in the areas of SE, GoM, and Caribbean regions?
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 65
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