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Khủng hoảng tài chính 2007 - Hoàng Công Gia Khánh
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1
KHNG HONG TI CHNH 2007
Hong Cng Gia Khnh
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Ti sc v s v ca th trng tn dng. Khng
hong hin nay ca th trng ti chnh l cn sng
thn ca th k v s nh hng nghim trng n nn kinh t. Khng hong
vt qu sc tng tng ca ti
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1. Vn tt v din bin cuc khng hong di gc ca cc trung gian ti chnh
Ti sn Ngun vn Ti sn di hn - Cho vay th chp - Cho cty vay - Nm gi ABS - .
Vn ch s hu
N di hn
N ngn hn - Thng phiu - Repo
t
R 10
nm 3
thng FED duy tr FFR thp
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Ti sn Ngun vn Ti sn di hn - Cho vay th chp - Cho cty vay - Nm gi ABS - .
Vn ch s hu
N di hn
N ngn hn - Thng phiu - Repo
t
Khng th vay c
Thanh khon km
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Chng khon ha (Securitization) Chng khon th chp bt ng sn (Mortgage-
backed Securities MBS)
Chng khon c m bo bng ti sn (Asset-backed Securities ABS)
Thng phiu th chp bng ti sn (Asset-backed Commercial Paper ABCP)
Ngha v n c bo m bng th chp (Collateralized debt obligations CDO)
Hp ng hon i v n tn dng (Credit Default Swaps CDSs)
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Cc i tng lin quan n MBS
Originator Ch n u tin. H bn mn n cho SPV
Special Purpose Vehicle
Obligors Khch hng vay mua nh
Thanh ton tin cho cc ch n
SPV Thc hin cc giao dch t bit.
Mua cc ti sn t cc ch n u tin Originator: Company/Trust/ Mutual Fund
Investors Ngi mua chng khon
Do SPV pht hnh
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Collection Agent
Thu tin t ngi i vay Gim st v theo di ti sn.
Credit Enhancement
Provider
Cung cp cc khon tng cng tn dng bng cc nghip v of swaps, hedges,
guarantees, insurance etc.
Merchant Banker
Ngn hng bn bun, cung cp cc dch v nh NHTM, v tn dng, u t, t vn,
dn xp qu trnh chng khon ha
Credit Rating Agency
Cc t chc xp hng tn dng Cung cc cc xp hng v ngi vay
v cc bn lin quan
Cc i tng lin quan n MBS
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S tng th
SPV Investors
Originator
Obligors
Credit Enhancement
Providers
Rating Agency
Structurer
9 Issue of securities
Rating 8 Subscription to securities
Cash flows 10 11 Servicing
of securities
Contracts Ongoing cash flows Initial cash flows
Collection Agent
Arranger
Original Loan 1
Collections 2 Credit enhancement 3
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Sale of asset 6
Purchase consideration
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1.V n
2.Gian ln, thiu trch nhim
3. La chn
nghch
4.Ri ro o c
5.Ri ro o c
6. Vn ngi i
din 7. Li m
hnh
7 nguy c trong chng khon ha tn dng di chun
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2. Kinh nghim t hot ng can thip ca Fed 2.1. Can thip bng cc cng c truyn thng
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2. S can thip ca Fed Din gii OMO DW TAF TSLF PDCF AMLF CPFF MMIFF TALF
Ngy cng b - - 17.08.07 11.03.08 16.03.08 19.09.08 07.10.08 21.10.08 25.11.08
Ngy kt thc - - - 30.04.09 30.04.09 30.04.09 - - -
i tng tham gia
TCTC ln,
TCNTG
TCNTG TCTC ln,
TCNTG
TCTC ln
TCTC ln
TCNTG,T NH
Cc TC PH CP
MMMF Cng dn HK
Tc ng n d tr
C C
C
Khng C
C
C
C
C
Thi hn vay Qua m-14
ngy
n 90 ngy
28 hoc 84 ngy
28 hoc 84 ngy
Qua m
Max 270 ngy
3 thng - t nht 1 nm (3 nm)*
Tn xut giao dch
Hng ngy
Bt c lc no
Mi hai tun
Hng tun
Bt c lc no
Bt c lc no
Bt c lc no
Bt c lc no
Hng thng
c hon tr trc hn
Khng c Khng Khng - Khng - - c
Loi GTCG s dng
C ngun gc t TPCP
C ngun gc t TPCP
C ngun gc t TPCP
MBS MBS ABCP loi 1
ABCP v CP mi pht hnh
GTCG ngn
hn, CP
ABS
C quan ph trch ca Fed
FRBNY Tt c Tt c FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY
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2. S can thip ca Fed 2.2. Cc cng c mi
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2. S can thip ca Fed 2.2. Cc cng c mi
Din gii OMO DW TAF TSLF PDCF AMLF CPFF MMIFF TALF Ngy cng b - - 17.08.07 11.03.08 16.03.08 19.09.08 07.10.08 21.10.08 25.11.08
Ngy kt thc - - - 30.04.09 30.04.09 30.04.09 - - -
i tng tham gia
TCTC ln,
TCNTG
TCNTG TCTC ln,
TCNTG
TCTC ln
TCTC ln
TCNTG,T NH
Cc TC PH CP
MMMF Cng dn HK
Tc ng n d tr
C C
C
Khng C
C
C
C
C
Thi hn vay Qua m-14
ngy
n 90 ngy
28 hoc 84 ngy
28 hoc 84 ngy
Qua m
Max 270 ngy
3 thng - t nht 1 nm (3 nm)*
Tn xut giao dch
Hng ngy
Bt c lc no
Mi hai tun
Hng tun
Bt c lc no
Bt c lc no
Bt c lc no
Bt c lc no
Hng thng
c hon tr trc hn
Khng c Khng Khng - Khng - - c
Loi GTCG s dng
C ngun gc t TPCP
C ngun gc t TPCP
C ngun gc t TPCP
MBS MBS ABCP loi 1
ABCP v CP mi pht hnh
GTCG ngn
hn, CP
ABS
C quan ph trch ca Fed
FRBNY Tt c Tt c FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY
23
2. S can thip ca Fed Tng hp cc chng trnh gii cu ca Fed tnh n 27/11/08 (vt: T USD)
TT Tn cng c / ti sn Ngy cng b Tng quy m s dng 1 TAF 12/12/2007 900 415,3 2 TSLF 11/03/2008 205 191,3 3 H tr cho J.P Morgans mua
li Bear Stearns 14/03/2008 28,8 26,9
4 PDCF 16/03/2008 50,2 50,2 5 AMLF 19/09/2008 69,8 69,8 6 CPFF 07/10/2008 1.800 265,7 7 MMIFF 21/10/2008 600 n.a 8 TALF 25/11/2008 200 0 9 Mua cc tri phiu c pht
hnh bi GSEs v MBS c GSEs bo m
25/11/2008 600 0
10 DW - 91,7 91,7 11 H tr cho AIG 122,8 t USD
v Citigroup 326 t USD - 448,8 448,8
12 Cc chng trnh khc - 620,6 620,6 Tng cng - 5.614,9 2.180,3
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2. S can thip ca Fed Bin ng ti sn ca Fed
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2. S can thip ca Fed 2.2. Fed cu cu B Ti chnh
Chng trnh ti tr b sung (Supplementary Financing Program SFP)
M t hnh ng H thng ngn hng Fed B Ti chnh
Ti sn N Ti sn N Ti sn N
1. Fed cho vay t TAF ...
+100 N t TAF
+100 Cho vay t TAF
2. ...lm gia tng d tr
+100 D tr
+100 D tr
3. BTC bn tn phiu ra dn chng ...
+100 Tn phiu
+100 Tn phiu
4. ... lm gim d tr vt mc
-100 D tr
-100 Tin mt (ca BTC)
-100 D tr
+100 Tin mt
5. BTC gi tin mt vo Fed
+100 Tin mt (ca BTC)
-100 Tin mt
6. ...Gia tng tin gi ti Fed
+100 Tin gi ca BTC
+100 Tin gi ti Fed
Tc ng rng + 100 +100 +100 +100 +100 +100
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Kt qu t cc chng trnh gii cu
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Kt qu t cc chng trnh gii cu
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Kt qu t cc chng trnh gii cu
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2. S can thip ca Fed 2.2. Cc cng c mi Din gii OMO DW TAF TSLF PDCF AMLF CPFF MMIFF TALF
Ngy cng b - - 17.08.07 11.03.08 16.03.08 19.09.08 07.10.08 21.10.08 25.11.08
Ngy kt thc - - - 30.04.09 30.04.09 30.04.09 - - -
i tng tham gia
TCTC ln,
TCNTG
TCNTG TCTC ln,
TCNTG
TCTC ln
TCTC ln
TCNTG,T NH
Cc TC PH CP
MMMF Cng dn HK
Tc ng n d tr
C C
C
Khng C
C
C
C
C
Thi hn vay Qua m-14
ngy
n 90 ngy
28 hoc 84 ngy
28 hoc 84 ngy
Qua m
Max 270 ngy
3 thng - t nht 1 nm (3 nm)*
Tn xut giao dch
Hng ngy
Bt c lc no
Mi hai tun
Hng tun
Bt c lc no
Bt c lc no
Bt c lc no
Bt c lc no
Hng thng
c hon tr trc hn
Khng c Khng Khng - Khng - - c
Loi GTCG s dng
C ngun gc t TPCP
C ngun gc t TPCP
C ngun gc t TPCP
MBS MBS ABCP loi 1
ABCP v CP mi pht hnh
GTCG ngn
hn, CP
ABS
C quan ph trch ca Fed
FRBNY Tt c Tt c FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY
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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam
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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam
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Nguyn nhn ca cuc ua li sut Vit nam
Ti sn Ngun vn Ti sn di hn - Cho vay mua BS - Cho vay mua CK - Cho cty vay -.
Vn ch s hu
N di hn
N ngn hn - Tin gi - Vay lin ngn hng
Kh tng
nhanh
Tng trng nhanh
1-5 nm
Qua m -
30 ngy
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Nguyn nhn ca cuc ua li sut Vit nam
Ti sn Ngun vn Ti sn di hn - Cho vay mua BS - Cho vay mua CK - Cho cty vay -.
Vn ch s hu
N di hn
N ngn hn - Tin gi - Vay lin ngn hng
NHNN tht cht
tin t => cng thng trn
TTLNH => tng li sut tin gi
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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam
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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam Kh nng vn dng cc cng c nh ca Fed: Cng c u thu cho vay k hn (TAF) Cng c cho vay chng khon k hn (TSLF) Cng c tn dng cho cc trung gian ti chnh hng u (PDCF) Cng c thanh khon cho qu th trng tin t thng qua vic cho vay da trn thng phiu bo m bng ti sn (AMLF)
Cng c qu thng phiu (CPFF) Cng c qu dnh cho cc nh u t trn th trng tin t (MMIFF) Cng c cho vay da trn chng khon m bo bng ti sn (TALF)
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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam D tr bt buc: Hn ch thay i lin tc Li sut chit khu: Phi hp cht nghip v th trng m
o Sn: Li sut chit khu; o Trn: Li sut ti cp vn o Ngng s dng cng c hnh chnh li sut c bn,
t do ha li sut.
Nghip v th trng m: o D bo vn kh dng; o Duy tr t l nm gi GTCG ca cc TCTD o Can thip mnh khi cn thit.
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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam T gi hi oi:
o Trnh gy sc hoc km t gi thi qu; o Kim sot cht hot ng thu i ngoi t; o Kim sot gm ngoi t, lm gi ca TCTD; o Thng nht u mi qun l ngun ngoi t o D bo cn cn thanh ton quc t.
H thng gim st ri ro
Minh bch thng tin o Cng b lch trnh lm vic ca HTVCSTT; o Minh bch ha tin trnh pht tn hiu o Cng khai ha s liu hot ng ngn hng.
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Xin cm n Qu v !
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