Kathy Walsh - Employment and unemployment in an Irish rural context

IMPLEMENTING CHANGE:

A NEW LOCAL AGENDA FOR

JOBS AND GROWTH In co-operation with the EU Presidency, Irish Government and Pobal

26-27 March 2013, Dublin-Kilkenny, Ireland

9th Annual Meeting

PLENARY SESSION II: LOCAL EMPLOYMENT STRATEGIES IN RURAL AREAS

Kathy Walsh KW Research and Associates, Ireland

Employment and Unemployment in an Irish Rural Context

Dr. Kathy Walsh

OECD Conference

Kilkenny, 27th March 2013

Study Purpose

Examine nature and issues of employment,

unemployment & social inclusion in rural areas

(esp. since 2008).

Make recommendations to address issues

Study undertaken jointly with Brian Harvey.

Focus of this presentation:

Employment & Unemployment

Content

Study purpose

Methodology

Findings

Recommendations

Study Methodology

Use of various definitions/approaches to defining

‘rural’

(including a new approach based on various

settlement size (<3,000, 3,000- 5,000 & > 5,000)

Analysis of the newly-available 2011 census data

and other data

Consultations with key stakeholders

Rural Findings Definitions and Policies

What is Rural?

No single agreed definition (39%- 59% RoI)

Most of us believe we know what it is......

Population density, land use, settlements patterns,

distance from urban centres

Rural Definitions?

Irish Central Statistics Office aggregate rural areas as

a ‘statistical concept where people reside outside

clusters (with legally defined boundaries) of 1,500 or

more inhabitants’ (38%)

OECD: rural if the population is less than 150

persons/km2 and classifies regions as Predominantly

Rural (PR), Intermediate (IR) and Predominantly Urban

(PU).

EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions has 8

sampling categories (from open countryside, towns

under 1,000 to the greater Dublin Area).

Rural Definitions?

> 1,500 too narrow a focus – need an enlarged lens.

What was possible, ultimately developed based on

settlement size (<3,000, 3,000- 5,000 & > 5,000)

Rural Findings (1)

Definitions of rural currently very narrow

Irish rural policy is out of date

Enhancing our future, 1999

Rural initiatives (Rural Social Scheme/Rural Transport

Programme) – but not policies

Need for a statement of basis for rural policy

E.g. Future of Rural Society (Commission, 1988)

Equivalence principle

Rural Findings (2)

Absence of rural policy focus

Many national policies

documents have no rural

sections or only passing

mention

- Action Plan for Jobs,

- National Skills Strategy,

- Enterprise Strategy,

- Ministerial briefings 2011

Absence of rural proofing

‘Rural’ has slipped down policy

hierarchy

Findings Employment & Unemployment

Rural Employment Previously

Main sources of rural employment were:

Agriculture, Natural Resources, Construction (boosted

particularly in the 2000’s), Small scale manufacturing

and Public services.

Economic Crises (2008-)

Unemployment 4.7% -2007 to 14.6% -2012

Long-term unemployment 1.3% -2007 to 8.4% -2012

Substantial out-migration affecting

Under-employment 22.7%, the third highest in the

EU

% young people not in Employment, Education or

Training (NEET) the third highest in EU

Data - Rural Employment/Unemployment

Hard to Locate

• Live Register Bulletins (monthly) measure of

standardised unemployment rate

• Quarterly National Household Bulletin (by sector

to NUTS III level but no rural/urban breakdown)

• Regional Labour Market Bulletins (FÁS)

Need to find ways to apply a rural lens – use CSO

2011 Small Area Census data on unemployment &

labour force participation (with the support of

National Institute for Regional and Spatial Analysis

(NIRSA) at NUI Maynooth)

NUTS III Unemployment Figures (Census 2011)

NUTS III level

Total Settlements

5,000+

Settlements

3000-5,000

Settlements

<3,000 Border 23% 26% 28% 21%

Midland 22% 27% 29% 19%

West 19% 20% 16% 18%

Dublin 17% 17% 17% 15%

Mid-East 18% 18% 18% 18%

Mid-West 20% 25% 0% 17%

South East 22% 25% 26% 19%

South West 17% 19% 19% 15%

• Rural unemployment lowest, • 3-5,000 settlements surprisingly high unemployment in some regions. • Caution: The issue of underemployment not considered in Census figures

Unemployment/Employment Supports

Activation policies and

programmes

Many and varied (Back-to-Work

schemes, Back-to- education courses, short-

term enterprise allowance scheme, Tús, the

Rural Social Scheme, Community

Employment, etc.).

Do not match scale of problem

Have a number of general

problems,(underinvestment, the

prioritizing of control and lack of

progression)

Not adapted to rural situations.

Some issues are more challenging

in rural areas, (e.g transport,

childcare, broadband access, etc).

Employment Policies/Directions

Convergence about what should be done

Between Ireland and Europe

Between NGOs and government

Main activities identified as:

Investment in infrastructure, public services

Green jobs (agrifood, farmer markets, social

farming, organic, etc), low carbon economy

(biofuels, wind, wave)

Targeted assistance for SMEs, micro-

enterprise, social enterprise

Up-skilling right through to upper age range

Rural, heritage, eco-tourism

Employment/Unemployment Trends Ireland lags behind Europe in key

areas

E.g. organics, biomass, nature protection, renewables

Example inappropriately applied e.g. wind

Missed opportunities e.g. heritage tourism, wave, Groundwork type improvements

Role of the state: over reliant on

private sector to create work in rural

areas. Overlooks potential for state

to create work directly & provide

more effective support for SME’s.

Employment Opportunities

Need more effective development of

- Social enterprise (0.68% v 6% EU)

- Apprenticeship training, (only 1,400 places)

Need to re-affirm role of community development

It was a major driver of employment in rural Ireland post

1980’s

Since then, investment fallen 42%, increasing concerns

about its future because of proposed alignment process.

Rural Policy

Recommendations

Rural Recommendations

Definitions of Rural

Need a broader definition of ‘rural’ that values the

close linkages between open countryside and small

towns and villages that service these areas. Need to

look at particular employment needs of settlements of

3000-5,000.

Rural Policy

Development of a new rural vision, setting down the

rationale for investing in and redefining ‘rural’.

Application of rural proofing, enforced by a Rural

Policy Implementation Group

Application of the European policy menu in those

areas where Ireland lags

Recommendations Rural Employment &

Unemployment

Employment/Unemployment

Recommendations:

Better adaptation of activation to the rural, refocusing

resources to intensive support and outreach,

investment in childcare, transport & progression.

Reinvestment in apprenticeships for the new jobs

already identified as appropriate for rural areas.

Investment in the social economy in the rural

economy, with a strategy for its development and a

national support unit.

Re-affirm value of community development. Operation

of European ‘Community Led Local Development

Programme as a global grant (2014-2020).

Thank You for Listening