Jonathan Smith and Cal Ghee Migration Statistics Improvement, ONSCD Centre for Demography Improving...

Jonathan Smith and Cal GheeMigration Statistics Improvement, ONSCD

Centre for Demography

Improving internal migration estimates of students

Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

• Major cross government programme

• Package of improvements to migration statistics

introduced in 2007

• Next set of changes to be introduced in May 2010

• Revised population estimates mid-2002 to mid-2008

• Consultation on improvements begins November 2009

Summary

• Context

• Proposed improvements using data from the

Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)

• Indicative results

• Uses of HESA data in Migration Statistics

Improvement Programme

Context

Context: HE student numbers 2007/08

• 2.3 million HE students

• 0.65 million 1st year undergraduates within England & Wales

• Represents 1% of the total England & Wales population

Current population estimates method

Current population estimates methodEstimated resident population at time T

Natural Change – add births, subtract deaths

International migration – add inflows, subtract outflows

Internal migration – add inflows, subtract outflows

Add special populations back in

Estimated resident population at time T+1

Remove special populations – UK armed forces, foreign armed forces, prisoners, school boarders

Age-on population by 1 year

Accuracy of student migration estimates

Why the focus on student migration?

• Some young people, particularly young men, do not change their GP registration soon after they move

• Students a sub-set of young people, who necessarily cluster in certain areas of the country

• Affects estimation of students moving to university and moving away after their studies

Comparison of stocks - 2001

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

single year of age 18-29

po

pu

lati

on

GP registrationstocks mid-2001

Census-based populationestimate mid-2001

Former students moving out of example area

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

HESAstudentnumbers

mid-year estimates

2001

Former students moving out of example area

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers

HESAstudentnumbers

mid-year estimates

2001

2002

Former students moving out of example area

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers

HESAstudentnumbers

mid-year estimates

2001

2002

2003

Former students moving out of example area

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers

HESAstudentnumbers

mid-year estimates

2001

2002

20032004

Former students moving out of example area

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers

HESAstudentnumbers

mid-year estimates

2001

2002

20032004 2005

Former students moving out of example area

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers

HESAstudentnumbers

mid-year estimates

2001

2002

20032004 2005 2006

Former students moving out of example area

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

continued ageing onnot reflected inHESA student numbers

HESAstudentnumbers

mid-year estimates

2001

2002

20032004 2005 2006 2007

Comparison of Census and mid-2007 estimates

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

2001

2007

Proposed improvements using data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)

Identifying migration moves using Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data

• Independent record of moves to university• Domicile address• Term-time address (from 2007/08)• Age and sex

• Wide range of other variables• Course length• Level of study• Start date / leave date• Nationality

Access to Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data

• Identifiable record level data• Establishing legal gateway• Process complete by end 2009

• Anonymised data • Received March 2009• Used as the basis for improved internal migration

estimates (May 2010)

Proposed student migration adjustments

• Estimates of students going to university

• Estimates of former students leaving

university

• Creating a back series for the above for

estimates for 2002 – 2007

• Creating a counter-adjustment to account for

when moves are eventually made

Estimates of students going to university

Estimates of former students leaving university

• HESA data does not record where former students move to

• How many people:

a) Finish studying

b) Move to a different LA

c) And don’t change registration with a GP

d) Remove former students from the LAs they were previously resident in and allocate them to the LAs they move to

Estimates of former students leaving university

• Range of sources used for the adjustment• HESA • 2001 Census• Patient register of moves

• Necessary to assume that patterns have remained consistent since 2001

Indicative results

2007/08 indicative results for England and Wales

Total Males Females

Proposed ‘start of study’ adjustment

66,300 36,000 30,300

Proposed ‘end of study’ adjustment

35,317 24,379 10,938

Indicative results: Ten largest increases

Local Authority Total AdjustmentManchester 8000Lambeth 6000Wandsworth 5500Southwark 5500Salford 5300Birmingham 5100Tower Hamlets 5100Westminster 4900Kingston Upon Hull UA 4200South Gloucestershire 4100

Indicative results: Ten largest decreases

Local Authority Total AdjustmentOxford -6400Cambridge -5000Durham -3300Stockport -1900Lancaster -1800Macclesfield -1600Colchester -1600York UA -1500Harrogate -1400Powys UA -1300

Indicative results: Adjustment for former students to first destinations

Indicative results: Ceredigion mid 2007 population

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

single year of age, 10-35

po

pu

lati

on

original

adjusted

2001 pattern

Additional uses of HESA data in Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

Further research using HESA data

Internal Migration• Record linkage between patient registers and HESA data

to identify and adjust for moves missed

International Migration• Foreign students who don’t live in households and so are

not sampled in the Labour Force Survey• Record linkage between international migrants identified

on patient registers and HESA data• Identification of foreign students likely to be short-term

migrants

Likely short-term migrants on HESA data (2007/08)

Local Authority Overseas Short-term Migrant Students

Camden 5,200

Manchester 4,000

Cardiff 3,900

Islington 3,900

Newham 3,800

Newcastle-upon-Tyne

3,800

Coventry 3,200

Birmingham 2,900

Tower Hamlets 2,800

Leeds 2,800

Summary

• Accuracy of internal migration estimates of students

• Availability of HESA data on student’s term-time address

• Proposed adjustment for moves at beginning and end of study

• Implemented into revised population estimates (mid-2002 to mid-2008)

• Wider research planned using HESA data

Questions?