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2015 POLITICAL MONITOR 20.11.2015
VOTING INTENTIONS
Voting Intention
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
37%
35%
8%
5%
8% 6%
All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention
Conservative lead = +2 Conservative lead = +7
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
41%
34%
7%
4%
7% 7%
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 760. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
3
SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT
-3% swing from October
-1.5% swing from October
-10% swing from October
-4.5% swing from October
-1.5% swing from October
-15 Net -3 Net -12 Net -14 Net -22 Net SATISFIED 40% SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 18% SATISFIED 36%
DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 40% DISSATISFIED 45% DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 58%
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
5
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
-50
+50
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?
Satisfaction with Party leaders Nov‘8 – Nov‘15
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
6 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
40%
33%
CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE
37%
18%
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
7 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Ne
t sa
tisfa
ctio
n
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
8 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
40%
55%
5%
November 2015 August 2006 –November 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Au
g-0
6N
ov-0
6M
ay-0
7A
ug-0
7D
ec-0
7M
ar-
08
Jun
-08
Se
p-0
8D
ec-0
8M
ar-
09
Jun
-09
Se
p-0
9D
ec-0
9M
ar-
10
Jun
-10
Oct-
10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct-
11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct-
12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-13
Jul-
13
Oct-
13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-14
Jul-
14
Oct-
14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-15
Jul-
15
Nov-1
5
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 40%
DISSATISFIED 55%
DON’T KNOW 5%
Net = -15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Base: 307 Conservative supporters 18+, 14th – 17th November
9 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
80%
18%
3%
October 2015 July 2006 – November 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Au
g 0
6Jan
07
Jun
07
Se
p 0
7Jan
08
Ap
r 08
Jul 08
Oct-
08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-09
Jul-
09
Oct-
09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct-
11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct-
12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-13
Jul-
13
Oct-
13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-14
Jul-
14
Oct-
14
Jan
-15
Ap
r 15
Jul-
15
Nov-1
5
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 80%
DISSATISFIED 18%
DON’T KNOW 3%
Net = +62
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
37%
40%
23%
37%
39%
25%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
10 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
SATISFIED 37%
DISSATISFIED 39%
DON’T KNOW 25%
Net = -2
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November and 1,021 British adults18+, 17th –19th October 2015
SATISFIED 37%
DISSATISFIED 40%
DON’T KNOW 23%
Net = -3
November 2015
65%
18%
18%
64% 16%
25%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
11 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
SATISFIED 64%
DISSATISFIED 16%
DON’T KNOW 21%
Net = +48
Base: 310 Labour supporters 14th – 17th November and 311 Labour supporters17th –19th October 2015
SATISFIED 65%
DISSATISFIED 18%
DON’T KNOW 18%
Net = +47
November 2015
22%
27%
51%
18%
32%
50%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November and 1,021 British adults18+, 17th –19th October 2015
12 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015 November 2015
SATISFIED 22%
DISSATISFIED 27%
DON’T KNOW 51%
Net = -5
SATISFIED 18%
DISSATISFIED 32%
DON’T KNOW 50%
Net = -14
61% 14%
25%
57% 30%
13%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base:80 Lib Dem supporters 18+ 14th – 17th November and 80 Lib Dem supporters 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015
N.B. small base size, indicative only.
13 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015 (Lib Dem supporters only) November 2015 (Lib Dem supporters only)
SATISFIED 61%
DISSATISFIED 14%
DON’T KNOW 25%
Net = +47
SATISFIED 57%
DISSATISFIED 30%
DON’T KNOW 13%
Net = +27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ma
r-1
3A
pr-
13
Ma
y-1
3Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3S
ep-1
3O
ct-
13
Nov-1
3D
ec-1
3Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4M
ar-
14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4S
ep-1
4O
ct-
14
Nov-1
4D
ec-1
4Jan
-15
Fe
b-1
5M
ar-
15
Ap
r-15
2A
pr-
15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Se
p-1
5O
ct-
15
Nov-1
5
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
14 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
33%
45%
21%
November 2015 March 2013 – November 2015
SATISFIED 33%
DISSATISFIED 45%
DON’T KNOW 21%
Net = -12
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ma
r-1
3A
pr-
13
Ma
y-1
3Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3S
ep-1
3O
ct-
13
Nov-1
3D
ec-1
3Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4M
ar-
14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4S
ep-1
4O
ct-
14
Nov-1
4D
ec-1
4Jan
-15
Fe
b-1
5M
ar-
15
Ap
r-15
2A
pr-
15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Se
p-1
5O
ct-
15
Nov-1
5
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 71 UKIP supporters 18+, 14th – 17th November
N.B. small base size, indicative only.
15 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
91%
9% 1%
November 2015 March 2013 – November 2015
SATISFIED 91%
DISSATISFIED 9%
DON’T KNOW 1%
Net = +82 Dissatisfied
Satisfied
ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
17 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
November 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Fe
b-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ap
r-05
No
v-0
5
Jul-
06
Ma
y-0
7
Jan
-08
Au
g-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Oct-
09
Ma
y-1
0
Jan
-11
Au
g-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Oct-
12
Ma
y-1
3
De
c-1
3
Jul-
14
Fe
b-1
5
Oct-
15
IMPROVE 31%
STAY THE SAME 25%
GET WORSE 40%
DON’T KNOW 4%
EOI = -9
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
18 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Oct
19
97
Ma
y 1
99
8
De
c 1
998
Jul 19
99
Fe
b 2
000
Se
p 2
000
Ap
r 20
01
No
v 2
001
Jun
20
02
Jan
20
03
Au
g 2
003
Ma
r 2
00
4
Oct
20
04
Ma
y 2
00
5
De
c 2
005
Jul 20
06
Fe
b 2
007
Se
p 2
007
Ap
r 20
08
No
v 2
008
Jun
20
09
Jan
20
10
Au
g 2
010
Ma
r 2
01
1
Oct
20
11
Ma
y 2
01
2
De
c 2
012
Jul 20
13
Fe
b 2
014
Se
p 2
014
Ap
r 20
15
No
v 2
015
-9
THE ECONOMY AND THE CHANCELLOR
Will the government’s policies improve the economy?
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
20 ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
March 2012 March 2015
47% 46%
6%
47% 48%
5%
AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW
IN THE LONG TERM, THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF BRITAIN'S ECONOMY
39%
53%
7%
November 2015
35%
52%
13%
Satisfaction with George Osborne
21 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY GEORGE OSBORNE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
November 2015 June 2010 – November 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun
-10
Ma
r-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ap
r-12
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-14
Ma
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Nov-1
5
BB = Before Budget
AB = After Budget
AAS = After Autumn Statement
BAS = Before Autumn Statement
BB
BB
BB
BB
BB
BB
AAS
AAS
BAS
AB BB
BB BAS
AB AB
AB SATISFIED 35%
DISSATISFIED 52%
DON’T KNOW 13%
Net =-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
0%
26%
19%
22%
0%
31%
37%
41%
0%
38%
38%
28%
0%
5%
6%
9%
Would Labour do a better job on the economy? AND DO YOU THINK THAT A LABOUR GOVERNMENT WITH JEREMY CORBYN AS PRIME MINISTER AND JOHN MCDONNELL AS
CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER WOULD DO A BETTER OR WORSE JOB, OR ABOUT THE SAME, THAN THE PRESENT
GOVERNMENT HAS DONE AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
22
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
March 2013- Ed
Miliband and Ed Balls
March 2015- Ed
Miliband and Ed Balls
November 2015-
Jeremy Corbyn and
John McDonnell
BETTER JOB WORSE JOB ABOUT THE SAME DON’T KNOW
Which is the party of working people? WHICH POLITICAL PARTY, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK WOULD BE THE BEST AT LOOKING AFTER THE INTERESTS OF WORKING PEOPLE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
November 2015
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
LIB DEM
OTHER
NONE
DON’T KNOW
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
23
25%
41%
5%
6%
5%
6%
12%
THE DEFICIT AND PUBLIC SPENDING
Will the government’s policies improve public
services?
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
25 ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2013 March 2015
59%
35%
6%
56%
37%
6%
AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW
IN THE LONG TERM, THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE BRITAIN’S PUBLIC SERVICES
August 2015
33%
60%
7%
67%
27%
5%
November 2015
Own view of spending cuts
26 WHICH ONE OF THESE, IF ANY, COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR OPINION ON CUTTING PUBLIC SPENDING TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT?
6%
1%
1%
27%
32%
34%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
It is still necessary to reduce the deficit by
cutting public spending
It was necessary in the last parliament to
reduce the deficit by cutting public
spending, but it is not necessary any more
It was never necessary to reduce the deficit by cutting public spending
Other
Don't know
None of these
Different party supporters’ attitudes to cuts
15
34
51
21
47
28
39
36
16
9
24
63
It was never necessary to reduce thedeficit by cutting public spending
It was necessary in the last parliament toreduce the deficit by cutting public
spending, but it is not necessary any more
It is still necessary to reduce the deficit bycutting public spending
Con Lab LibDem UKIP%
27 WHICH ONE OF THESE, IF ANY, COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR OPINION ON CUTTING PUBLIC SPENDING TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT?
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
Getting the balance right WHICH PARTY, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST BALANCE BETWEEN CUTTING SPENDING TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT AND NOT DAMAGING PUBLIC SERVICES – THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS, UKIP OR SOME OTHER PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
24%
25%
7% 8%
8%
11%
17%
December 2014 November 2015
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
LIB DEM
OTHER
NONE
DON’T KNOW
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
28
26%
27% 6%
12%
7%
8%
15%
Spending cuts
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
29 FROM WHAT YOU KNOW, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS ON THE WHOLE MADE THE RIGHT DECISIONS OR THE WRONG DECISIONS ABOUT WHERE SPENDING CUTS SHOULD BE MADE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
March 2010 October 2010
55%
35%
10%
59%
33%
8%
38% 41%
21%
November 2015
RIGHT DECISIONS WRONG DECISIONS DON’T KNOW
59
36
19
15
8
5
3
3
4
1
1
3
5
9
55
44
28
10
8
5
4
3
2
1
9
7
Overseas aid
Benefit payments
Defence and armed forces
Transport
Local authority services
Social services
The NHS/Healthcare
Police
State pensions
Schools
Care for the elderly
Other
Don’t know
NoneNA
Areas where spending cuts should come from
30 IF THE GOVERNMENT WERE TO MAKE FURTHER CUTS IN SPENDING WHICH TWO OR THREE, IF ANY, OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS DO YOU THINK THE UK GOVERNMENT SHOULD CUT THE MOST MONEY FROM?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
MARCH 2013 NOVEMBER 2015
NA
Different party supporters’ priorities for cuts
4
4
49
93
20
31
32
40
19
30
15
43
13
8
59
71
Transport
Defence and armed forces
Benefit payments
Overseas aid
Con Lab LibDem UKIP%
31 IF THE GOVERNMENT WERE TO MAKE FURTHER CUTS IN SPENDING WHICH TWO OR THREE, IF ANY, OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS DO YOU THINK THE UK GOVERNMENT SHOULD CUT THE MOST MONEY FROM?
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
73
39
28
27
23
14
13
8
5
4
2
1
3
1
The NHS/Healthcare
Schools
Care for the elderly
Defence and armed forces
Police
State pensions
Social services
Benefit payments
Local authority services
Transport
Overseas aid
Other
Don’t know
None
Areas which should be protected from spending cuts
32 AND WHICH TWO OR THREE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK SHOULD BE MOST PROTECTED FROM CUTS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
Different party supporters’ priorities to protect from cuts
55
22
26
63
14
23
54
78
16
31
40
80
40
26
33
67
Defence and armed forces
Care for the elderly
Schools
NHS/healthcare
Con Lab LibDem UKIP%
33 AND WHICH TWO OR THREE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK SHOULD BE MOST PROTECTED FROM CUTS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
NEXT CONSERVATIVE LEADER
Next Conservative leader
35 AS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT HE WILL STEP DOWN AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020. WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING POLITICIANS I AM GOING TO READ OUT, IF ANY, WOULD MAKE YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY IF THEY WERE LEADER
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
8%
25%
4%
15%
17%
27%
9%
29%
3%
4%
11%
19%
25%
Don't know
None of these
Michael Gove
Sajid Javid
George Osborne
Theresa May
Boris Johnson
SEPTEMBER 2015 NOVEMBER 2015
Next Conservative leader amongst Conservative
supporters
36 AS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT HE WILL STEP DOWN AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020. WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING POLITICIANS I AM GOING TO READ OUT, IF ANY, WOULD MAKE YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY IF THEY WERE LEADER
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 307 Conservative supporters 18+, 14th – 17th November
5%
7%
3%
32%
18%
29%
8%
6%
2%
3%
23%
26%
32%
Don't know
None of these
Michael Gove
Sajid Javid
George Osborne
Theresa May
Boris Johnson
SEPTEMBER 2015 NOVEMBER 2015
2015 POLITICAL MONITOR
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