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Investing in Airports in Tough Economic
Times
Mark Heusinkveld28 May 2009
Lodz, Republic of Poland
European Sky over Poland
Ministry of Infrastructure
Association of Engineers and Technicians of Transport
Strategic Feasibility Studies
Master Plans
Airspace &Airfield Modeling
Forecasting and Facility Requirements
Operations Plans & Financial Feasibility
Noise & Environmental Analysis
AirsideAirsidePlanningPlanning
Landrum & Brown Services
Airside Airside PlanningPlanning
Cargo & LogisticsCargo & LogisticsPlanningPlanning
Forecasting
Facility Layout
Operations/Financing Plans
Marketing and Development
Strategic Feasibility Studies
Master Plans
Airspace &Airfield Modeling
Forecasting and Facility Requirements
Operations Plans & Financial Feasibility
Noise & Environmental Analysis
Landrum & Brown Services
Cargo & LogisticsCargo & LogisticsPlanningPlanning
Forecasting
Facility Layout
Operations Plans
Marketing and Development
Terminal/LandsideTerminal/LandsidePlanningPlanning
Terminal/LandsideTerminal/LandsidePlanningPlanning
Programming, Schematic Design, Modeling, 3D, Gate Management
Airside Airside PlanningPlanning
Strategic Feasibility Studies
Master Plans
Airspace &Airfield Modeling
Forecasting and Facility Requirements
Operations Plans & Financial Feasibility
Noise & Environmental Analysis
Landrum & Brown Services
Global Aviation Experience
North American
ACI Air Traffic Statistics by Regions
Latin America Caribbean
Europe
Africa
Middle East
Asia/Pacific
Psg: total passengers
(millions)
Cgo: total cargo
(metric tonnes 000s)
Mov: total movements
(000s)
World Map of Air Traffic Change 2007 ~ 2008
Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008
Cuban Missile Crisis
Hijackings
R
Fuel Shock
R
Fuel Shock
PATCOStrike
RR
Pan Am103
Persian Gulf War
R
WTC 1993
9-11
R
Iraq War
Fuel Shock
Fuel Shock
R
Credit Crisis
Aviation System Shocks and Recoveries1960-2006 – U.S. Market
Source: Jan 2009 update Tragedy Analysis (Landrum & Brown Analysis)
Worldwide Passenger Traffic History
1960-2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Reven
ue E
np
lan
em
en
ts (
in m
illion
s)
Worldwide Total Enplanements
U.S. Total Enplanements
World Airline Traffic Forecasting: Number of Passengers1945 ~ 2030
45’~54’23.2%
Growth Rates 55’~64’
9.6%65’~74’12.6%
75’~84’5.3%
85’~94’3.6%
95’~04’4.2%
Forecasted Growth Rate:
Boeing = 4.26% Airbus= 4.30%
Source: Airport Transport Association (http://www.air-transport.org/); Boeing transformation of air transport summary outlook 2008; Airbus Global Market Forecasting 2007
2007-2015: 12 New Airports at U.S.$15.2 Billion
New Airports 12 $ 15,282 Mn
Source:090429mpk_ProjectPotentials.xls (L&B copyright )
New Airports 12 $ 15,282 Mn
New Terminal 22 $ 18,814 Mn
Source:090429mpk_ProjectPotentials.xls (L&B copyright )
2007-2015: 22 New Terminals at U.S.$18.8 Billion
New Airports 12 $ 15,282 Mn
New Terminal 22 $ 18,814 Mn
Other Exps. 31 $ 36,048 Mn
Source:090429mpk_ProjectPotentials.xls (L&B copyright )
2007-2015: 31 Expansion Projects at U.S.$36.0 Billion
Planning Strategies
Understand the Market Focus on the Forecast Plan for Flexibility Anticipate Change Ensure Balanced Facilities Explore all Revenue Opportunities Build for What is Foreseen Continually Improve Performance
70 MAP 100 MAP 130 MAP 160 MAP
Use of Planning Demand Levels
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180P
assen
gers
(m
illion
s)
History Low Case Base Case High Case EK Forecast
70 MAP 100 MAP 130 MAP 160 MAP
The Effect of a Changing Fleet…
Aircraft by ICAO Design Code
24.1%
10.3%63.3%
0.9%1.4%17.8%
3.5%
62.6%
0.0%16.0%
70 MAP 160 MAP
B C D E F
ICAO Design Code B:
ERJ170, E145 …
ICAO Design Code C:
B737, A320 …
ICAO Design Code D:
A300, B757, B767 …
ICAO Design Code F:
A380, An225 …
ICAO Design Code E:
A340, A330, B747, B777 …
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Transfer DeparturesTransfer ArrivalsO&D DeparturesO&D Arrivals
Understand the demand profile…
Transfer
Passengers
Transfer
Passengers
O&D
Passengers
O&D
Passengers
Ensure Balance of Airspace withAirside, Terminal and Landside
Guangzhou
Shenzhen
Hong Kong
Macau
Zhuhai
5 Airports 3 Jurisdictions Restricted
Airspace
Anticipating Change Since 1959
1959 1962 1968
1971 1996
Future
1946
Explore Future Development Options
Hong Kong – Airport City Concept
New T2 Terminal
New Bus Depot
Convention Center
Potential Office Development
Future Development
Ferry Terminal
Hotel
Mumbai – Redevelopment on Site
Explore the Potential…
Develop a Vision… And build what can be justified
Maglev - Metro Subway - High Speed Rail - City Buses –
Commercial Development – Retail – Residential - Logistics
شـــكرDًا !
Thank You!Dziękuję!
Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008
Total Passengers by Region2007~2008
Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008
Total Cargo by Region2007~2008
Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008
Total Movements by Region2007~2008
Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008
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