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Intuition Intuition – the immediate knowing of something without the
conscious use of reasoning Without considering wind and the earths curvature, which bullet
would hit the ground first one you shot out of a gun or one dropped out of your hand at the same level?
1000,40,1000,30,1000,20,1000,10 = 4100 You are in a race and overtake the second person. What position are
you in? • second
If you overtake the last person what position are you in? • Can’t overtake last person
Mary’s father has five daughters, 1. NANA, 2. NENE, 3. NINI, 4. NONO, AND ?
• Mary
Researchers have found that people with low self-confidence are more susceptible to flattery than those of high self-confidence.
Does the finding strike you as surprising or not surprising?
Researchers have found that people with high self-confidence are more susceptible to flattery than those of low self-confidence.
Does the finding strike you as surprising or not surprising?
Limits of Intuition & Common Sense (Obj. 1)
Hindsight Bias “I-knew-it-all-along” phenomenon - tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it
the saying: “Hindsight is 20/20” Ex. Big plays in Football
Limits of Intuition / Common Sense
Overconfidence - we tend to think we know more than we do
“Reagan doesn’t have the presidential look” (United Artists Executive when asked whether Ronald Reagan should be offered the starring role in the movie The Best Man, 1964)
“Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances.” (Lee DeForest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957)
“Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 yrs.” (Alex Lewyt, manufactures of vacuum cleaners.1955)
“A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability.” (Harvard Economic Society. Weekly Letter, Nov. 16, 1929)
Scientific Attitude (Obj.2)
A curiosity to explore and understand the world without being fooled by it
Requires: Humility: we have to reject our own ideas Critical thinking: helps shift reality from illusion
Examine assumptions Discern hidden values Evaluate evidence Assess conclusions
Scientific Research (Obj.3) Theory – Explains, organizes and predicts a wide range of
observations and implies a hypothesis Caffeine impacts Anxiety
Hypothesis - a testable prediction, educated guess Drinking caffeinated coffee increases anxiety.
Scientific Method - Refining theories & hypothesis through research that better organizes and predicts observable behaviors
Operational Definitions
Operational Definitions - Clearly defined methods of research that allow others to replicate, or repeat research
What is your definition of anxiety? Heart rate? Perpetration?
How much caffeine? At what time? In what form? Pop Coffee Pill 1 pill of 600m or 3 pills of 200m Morning or Night With food or without
Descriptive (Obj. 4) Descriptive: describes behavior but doesn’t explain it
Case study: analyze one or more individuals in great depth in hopes of revealing things true of all of us Pros: provides much information / only need to study one person Cons: an individual may be atypical / may not apply to all people
• Ex. Phineas Gage
Survey: looks at many cases in less depth Pros: obtain much information from a large # of people Cons:
• people may not answer truthfully (bias / error) • wording effect (“not allowing” “forbidding”) • false consensus (overestimate others agreement w/ us) • requires excellent random sampling of population • I pad vs. phone vs. letter vs. in-person
Naturalistic Observation: observing and recording the behavior of organisms in their natural environment Pros: natural setting Cons: time consuming, good for only limited behaviors
• Estimate the distance that individuals stand apart when they are talking. Noting differences between same sex and opposite sex & different social situations (party, hallway, locker room)
• High school PDA: Public Displays of Affection
• Naturalistic Observation: Jane Goodall
Correlation (Obj.5) Correlation (prediction): statistical measurement of
a relationship (-1 to +1) Positive correlation: direct relationship where two things
increase or decrease together, same direction (0 to +1 correlation coefficient)
• Temperature / Students wearing flip-flops • AP Reading / AP Test scores
Negative correlation: an inverse relationship where as one thing increases the other decreases, inverse (0 to –1 correlation coefficient)
• More you brush / Less cavities you have • Being held / Crying baby
Correlation Coefficient statistical measure (#) of the extent to which two
factors vary together and how well either factor predicts the other
Correlation coefficient
Indicates direction of relationship
(positive or negative)
Indicates strength of relationship (0.00 to 1.00)
r = +.37
Scatter plot - a graphed cluster of dots, each of which represents the values of two variables also called a scatter gram or scatter diagram amount of scatter suggests, strength of the correlation
• little scatter indicates high correlation
Perfect positive correlation (+1.00)
No relationship (0.00) Perfect negative correlation (-1.00)
Three possible cause-effect relations
*PREDICTING NATURAL RELATIONSHIPS *CORRELATION DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION
Does Correlation Cause Anything?
Height and Shoe size Speculate on the relationship between height and
shoe size. We cannot show cause and effect relationship
with correlation Ex. ACT test scores / College Grades Ex. Partying / Grades Ex. Smoking Cigarettes / Lung Cancer
Illusory correlation: the perception of a relationship where none exists recall confirming instances of that belief make sense of the world/create patterns
• Ex. Catch a cold from the cold weather • Ex. Senioritis • Ex. Hot table at the casino
Illusory correlation (Obj. 6)
Experimentation: only method to state cause and effect
Like other sciences, experimentation is the backbone of psychology research. Experiments isolate causes and their effects.
Theory: The consumption of orange juice can be very beneficial for learning material.
Hypothesis: a testable prediction “IF you drink orange juice before you take a psychology test, then you will receive a better score on the test.”
Experimentation (Obj. 7)
Random sampling: the procedure for obtaining a sample population for the experiment equal chance of being selected
Population: all the people in a group being studied, from which samples can be drawn
Random assignment: assigning subjects to experimental and control conditions by equal chance; minimizes bias
Operational Definitions: precise explanations on how each variable will be used in the experiment. Others should be able to repeat experiment exactly as it
was done the original time. 1. Students will drink 12 ounces of concentrated, pulp-free, freshly
squeezed 100% orange juice 30 seconds before taking an examination.
2. Students will take a minimum 50 questions psychology test according to content percentages of the AP exam.
Variable: factor being manipulated or measured Independent variable: the factor that is manipulated
• Follows the “IF” statement in a hypothesis • “If you drink orange juice” consumption of Orange juice
Dependent variable: the factor that is measured • Shows the proof; follows the “THEN” statement • “the student’s test score”
You (researcher): “I told you orange juice (independent variable) will improve test scores!”
Friends: “Yeah, right!”
You (researcher): “Look, several students after drinking orange juice, scored 20% higher on the test (dependent variable).”
Control group: not exposed to the treatment or IV May receive a placebo: a pseudo-treatment
Experimental group: exposed to the treatment or IV Drank OJ before test
You (researcher): “I told you orange juice will improve test scores!”
Friends: “Yeah, right!” You (researcher): “Look, several students after drinking
orange juice, scored 20% higher on the test AND averaged 30% higher on the test compared to students who did not drink the orange juicce.”
Friends: “Maybe orange juice will improve your test scores.”
Confounding Variables: factors which can potentially influence/contaminate the results of the experiment
Experimenter bias: experimenter knows who is in what group and what treatment they are getting
“Good subject” phenomenon: participants knows or tries to anticipate what the experimenter wants
Solution to experimenter and “good subject” bias: double-blind procedure where neither the subject or experimenter the experiment know who is in what group
Placebo effect: just thinking you received treatment can lead to relief, pseudo-treatment or drug (sugar pill) compare and decide on the, statistical significance
Experimental Examples An organizational psychologist wants to know
whether job satisfaction among assembly line workers will be influenced by pressure to perform. What is the independent variable? What is the dependent variable? What is the experimental (group) condition? What is the control (group) condition?
Experimental Examples A team of educational psychologists investigate whether
cognitive therapy (versus no therapy) has an effect on college students’ test anxiety. What is the independent variable? What is the dependent variable? What is the experimental (group) condition? What is the control (group) condition?
An investigator uses a simple perceptual task to see whether reaction time is affected by alcohol consumption (three cocktails versus none) in a middle-aged population. What is the independent variable? What is the dependent variable? What is the experimental (group) condition? What is the control (group) condition?
Statistical Reasoning (Obj. 8-9) • Central Tendency
• Mean = Average (most affected by outliers/extreme scores) • Median = Middle • Mode = Most often
• Descriptive Statistics: central tendencies that summarize the interpret some of the properties of a set of data
• Describe the sample studied • Inferential Statistics: probability theory for deducing (inferring) the properties of a population form the analysis of the properties of a data sample drawn from it.
• Generalized to the larger population
Variation (Obj. 10) – how similar or diverse the scores are Range – gap between low and high score (crude variation) Standard deviation – how much scores vary around the mean score.
Normal Curve / Normal distribution - bell-shaped pattern of scores that come from the normal distribution of test scores (average, mean)
Z score – how many standard deviations a score is from the mean z = (x - µ) / σ (or) z = (x – m) / sd Raw score – Mean / Standard Deviation
95% of all people fall within 30 points
of 100
55 70 85 100 115 130 145 Wechsler intelligence score
68% of people score within 15 points
above or below 100
Generalizations & Significance (Obj. 11-14)
Generalizations 1. Representative sample better than bias or extremes
What population was sampled?
2. Less-variable are more reliable than more-variable
3. More cases are better than fewer Replicating a study with a different population
Statistical significance: likelihood, result happen by chance Laboratory: looks to illuminate everyday life Culture and Gender: differences need to be considered
when generalizing, but so to does our shared human biology Replication of experiments can help
Ethics in Research (Obj. 15-16)
Should animals be involved in experiments/research? Which ones? When? Why? How? How often? Animal and Human shared psychology and physiology
Whale Wars!
What about people? Obtain the informed consent of potential participants Protect them (participants) from harm and discomfort Treat information and individual participants confidentially Fully debrief people: explain the research afterward
Testing Proverbs Identify the theory that underlies the proverb or rule of thumb Generate a testable hypothesis Suggest a possible design (Descriptive, Correlation, or
Experimental) to test the hypothesis If the design is Experimental what would be the DV, IV, and
operational definitions “A letter takes three times as long to write as it does to say.” “The more languages you know, the easier it is for you to learn a new
one” “It takes four hours to come down from your last cup of coffee” “As family income rises, the ratio of woman’s shoes to men’s shoes
increase accordingly.” “Don’t change your first guess on a multiple-choice test when checking
over your answers.”
Designing an Experiment
Select a cliché or old wives’ tale Ex “an apple a day…,” “you can’t teach a old
dog…,) Construct a correctly worded hypothesis specify
the variables (IV / DV), identify the population, and differentiate the subject groups.
Any ethical problems in the experiment. Any dependent variables that are not
operationally defined?
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