International Crime Statistics Some recent research experiences

International Crime StatisticsSome recent research experiences

Paul Smit

Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) Ministry of Justice, the Netherlands

A story of the struggle against all the zillion of problems you encounter when trying to make crime statistics between countries ‘comparable’ …..

….. and how to succeed …..

...... well, at least partially.

A story of the struggle against all the zillion of problems you encounter when trying to make crime statistics between countries ‘comparable’ …..

….. and how to succeed …..

...... well, at least partially.

A story of the struggle against all the zillions of problems you encounter when trying to make crime statistics between countries ‘comparable’ …..

….. and how to succeed …..

...... well, at least partially.

Four research projects

1. EUCPN report: Crime trends in the EU

2. Cambridge study on crime trends

3. Study on effectiveness and severeness of law enforcement

4. Study on detection rates

EUCPN report: Crime trends in the EU

• Based on existing international datasources (ICVS, European Sourcebook, UK Data Collection, Eurobarometer)

• Comparing trends is probably better than comparing rates.

Cambridge study on crime trends

• 8 countries, will be published this year in a special issue of Crime and Justice

• National data are used. On a national level the statistics are modified to meet the requirements (definitions imposed)

• All individual country chapters follow the same format

Criminaliteit in Nederland (internationale vergelijking)

Fig 6(e): Average Sentence Length and Average Time ServedRape

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Year

Av

era

ge

(M

on

ths

)

Average Sentence Length Average Time Served

Study on effectiveness and severeness of law enforcement

• Study presented at the ESC (2003) based on European Sourcebook data

• Comparing ratios is probably better than comparing rates.

The law enforcement measuring points

1. Recorded crime

2. Suspected offenders

3. Sanctions and measures

4. Unsuspended prison sentences

5. Prisoners

Effectiveness

1. Recorded crime

2. Suspected offenders

3. Sanctions and measures

4. Unsuspended prison sentences

5. Prisoners

Severeness

1. Recorded crime

2. Suspected offenders

3. Sanctions and measures

4. Unsuspended prison sentences

5. Prisoners

Average actual length of prison days per recorded crime

1. Recorded crime

2. Suspected offenders

3. Sanctions and measures

4. Unsuspended prison sentences

5. Prisoners

- 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sw eden

Finland

Norw ay

Denmark

Belgium

England & Wales

Germany

Netherlands

France

Austria

Sw itzerland

Italy

Portugal

Greece

Hungary

Poland

Czech Republic

Slovakia

Study on detection rates

• Was published in the same European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research as the EUCPN study

• Research question: Is the detection rate as published by various countries a good measure of the effectiveness of the police or do other factors also influence this rate?

Published detection rates

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

the Netherlands

Sweden

U.S.A.

France

Norway

Finland

England & Wales

Denmark

Germany

violent crime property crime

Method used

• Identify different factors that could, potentially, influence the detection rate.

• Use existing datasources (European Sourcebook, ICVS) and a questionnaire filled in by contacts in the different countries to ‘score’ those factors.

• Analyse the possibility / probability that those factors indeed do influence the detection rate.

Criteria for solving crimesCrit

The Netherlands +1

Germany +1

England & W -1

France 0

Scotland -1

Sweden -1

Finland +1

Poland 0

Portugal +1

Special investigative agenciesCrit Spec

The Netherlands +1 0

Germany +1 0

England & W -1 0

France 0 0

Scotland -1 +1

Sweden -1 +1

Finland +1 0

Poland 0 0

Portugal +1 +1

Counting unitsCrit Spec Count

The Netherlands +1 0 -1

Germany +1 0 0

England & W -1 0 -1

France 0 0 0

Scotland -1 +1 0

Sweden -1 +1 +1

Finland +1 0 +1

Poland 0 0 +1

Portugal +1 +1 -1

Reporting rates

58%

55%

52%

52%

59%

46%

38%

32%

49%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

the Netherlands

Germany

England & Wales

France

Scotland

Sw eden

Finland

Poland

Portugal

Average

Reporting rateCrit Spec Count Rep

The Netherlands +1 0 -1 -1

Germany +1 0 0 0

England & W -1 0 -1 -1

France 0 0 0 0

Scotland -1 +1 0 0

Sweden -1 +1 +1 -1

Finland +1 0 +1 +1

Poland 0 0 +1 +1

Portugal +1 +1 -1 +1

Relative number of violent crimes

15%

27%

23%

30%

16%

21%

22%

17%

21%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

the Netherlands

Germany

England & Wales

France

Scotland

Sweden

Finland

Poland

Portugal

Average

Relative number of violent crimesCrit Spec Count Rep Viol

The Netherlands +1 0 -1 -1 -1

Germany +1 0 0 0 0

England & W -1 0 -1 -1 +1

France 0 0 0 0 0

Scotland -1 +1 0 0 +1

Sweden -1 +1 +1 -1 -1

Finland +1 0 +1 +1 0

Poland 0 0 +1 +1 0

Portugal +1 +1 -1 +1 -1

Obligation to prosecuteCrit Spec Count Rep Viol Obpr

The Netherlands +1 0 -1 -1 -1 0

Germany +1 0 0 0 0 +1

England & W -1 0 -1 -1 +1 0

France 0 0 0 0 0 +1

Scotland -1 +1 0 0 +1 0

Sweden -1 +1 +1 -1 -1 0

Finland +1 0 +1 +1 0 0

Poland 0 0 +1 +1 0 0

Portugal +1 +1 -1 +1 -1 +1

Discretionary powersCrit Spec Count Rep Viol Obpr Discr

The Netherlands +1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1

Germany +1 0 0 0 0 +1 +1

England & W -1 0 -1 -1 +1 0 0

France 0 0 0 0 0 +1 0

Scotland -1 +1 0 0 +1 0 0

Sweden -1 +1 +1 -1 -1 0 0

Finland +1 0 +1 +1 0 0 0

Poland 0 0 +1 +1 0 0 +1

Portugal +1 +1 -1 +1 -1 +1 0

Total country scoresCrit Spec Count Rep Viol Obpr Discr Tot

The Netherlands +1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -3

Germany +1 0 0 0 0 +1 +1 +3

England & W -1 0 -1 -1 +1 0 0 -2

France 0 0 0 0 0 +1 0 +1

Scotland -1 +1 0 0 +1 0 0 +1

Sweden -1 +1 +1 -1 -1 0 0 -1

Finland +1 0 +1 +1 0 0 0 +3

Poland 0 0 +1 +1 0 0 +1 +3

Portugal +1 +1 -1 +1 -1 +1 0 +2

Detection rates Total score Detection rate

The Netherlands -3 13%

Germany +3 53%

England & W -2 25%

France +1 27%

Scotland +1 44%

Sweden -1 19%

Finland +3 45%

Poland +3 27%

Portugal +2 No data