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Intelligence and Insight You Can Trust
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2
Evolution in Autonomy: Prospects for the
Deployment of a New Generation of Armed
UAVs
Caitlin Harrington Lee Aviation Correspondent, IHS Jane’s
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3
Major themes
• Current state of U.S. military’s Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) fleet
• America’s view of the emerging strategic environment
• Advantages of a new generation of armed UAS versus manned platforms: Long Range Bomber as a Case Study
• The Pentagon’s Hedging Strategy: a cautious approach to armed UAS Development
• Autonomy as the Key to Armed UAS Development
• Limitations on Autonomous System Development
• Prospects for Future Deployment of next-generation UAS
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4
Armed UAS in theatre today
Lockheed Martin AGM-114 Hellfire Missile
Credit: Lockheed Martin
MQ-1 Predator armed with AGM-114 Hellfire Missile
Credit: US Air Force
Raytheon Multi-Spectral Targeting System, Credit: Raytheon
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
USAF Orbits
Credit: Chart provided by USAF
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6
UAS Market Growth
Credit: Derrick Maple Credit: Derrick Maple
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7
Potential Benefits of Pursuing New UAS
• Take the human out of the cockpit
• Confluence of technology that allows it
• Possible price reduction
Credit: Chart provided by Boeing
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8
Strategic Environment
Credit: Chart provided by US Air Force Secretary Michael Donley
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9
AirSea Battle
SAMS
This mobile S-300 TEL has a 5P85T trailer with four missile canisters and is towed by a Ural 375
tractor unit
Credit: Christopher F. Foss
FIGHTERS
First confirmed flight of CAC J-20 (WS engines) on 11 January 2011
Credit; Jane’s Defence Weekly
CRUISE MISSILES
Growing Range of PLA Systems
Credit: CSBA
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10
What Happens When UAS Enter Contested
Airspace?
Boeing MQ-8B Fire Scout Wreckage in Libya
Credit: Libyan State TV
Russian Fighter Firing a Missile at Georgian UAV
Credit: Georgian MoD
Predator Hanging in Belgrade Museum
Credit: Dan Orlovic, public domain
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11
Next-generation Armed UAS Concepts:
Contemplating Operations in Contested Airspace
• US Air Force’s “Optionally Manned” long-range bomber
• US Navy’s Unmanned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance and
Strike (UCLASS ) competition
• US Air Force’s Next Generation Remotely Piloted Vehicle
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
Case Study:
Unmanned Bomber Advantages
• Range
• Payload
• Strike Capability
• Survivability
• Affordability
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13
“Optionally Manned”: A Cautious Approach
• Major debate about the limits of UAS autonomy:
Can an armed UAS safely and effectively operate
in airspace that is: Congested, Cluttered,
Contested, Connected and Constrained?
• Gen Schwartz says we’re not ready for a
commitment to an unmanned bomber
• Gen Cartwright says it’s time to go unmanned
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
Pentagon’s Hedging strategy
• Long Range Bomber – optionally manned
(The “Age of the Sail”)
• UCLASS – still working out requirements
• Next Generation RPA – starting over
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15
Autonomy as a Key Enabler of a New
Generation of Armed UAS
• What is UAV autonomy?
• How can it enable operations in contested and
increasingly complex airspace?
• Specific concerns about trust in autonomy
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16
UAV Autonomy: Sheridan and Verplank
1 The computer offers no assistance: human must take all
decision and actions.
2 The computer offers a complete set of decision/action
alternatives, or
3 narrows the selection down to a few, or
4 Suggests one alternative, and
5 executes that suggestion if the human approves, or
6 allows the human a restricted time to veto before
automatic execution, or
7 executes automatically, then necessarily informs humans,
and
8 Informs the human only if asked, or
9 informs the human only if it, the computer, decides to.
10 The computer decides everything and acts autonomously,
ignoring the human.
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17
UAV Autonomy: A Multi-Dimensional Definition
Credit: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Autonomy Levels for Unmanned Systems Working Group
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18
Autonomy: Role in Armed UAS Operations
1. Speed: “Greater use of highly adaptable and flexibly autonomous systems and
processes can provide significant time-domain operational advantages over
adversaries who are limited to human planning and decision speeds” – USAF Science
and Technology Roadmap
2. Complexity: “Increasing speed, confusion and information overload of modern war
make human response inadequate; war has become “too complex for a human to
direct?” – MoD Report 211
“The competitive edge quite frankly…is in the cognitive power we can put into those
platforms to operate and inter-operate with each other without the intervention of a
human being. The leverage is probably going to be greatest on the cognitive side,
without people in them,” General James Cartwright, Vice Chairman, JCS
3. Cost Reduction: Manpower, Maintenance
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19
Autonomous Systems for UAS:
Prototyping Stages
RQ-170 Sentinel Credit: Jean Claude Marche
Boeing Phantom Ray Credit: Boeing
X-47B UCAS-D Credit: Northrop Grumman
General Atomics Predator C (Sea Avenger) Credit: General Atomics
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20
Killer Apps
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Concerns about “Trust in Autonomy”
US concerns: • Fratricide
• Mission reliability
International Concerns: • Laws of Armed Conflict
• Collateral Damage
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22
Verification and Validation Procedures
• “Essential for gaining certifiable trust and legal freedom
to field autonomous systems that can match or exceed
potential adversary capabilities.” – USAF Science and
Technology Roadmap
• Complexity of V&V
• Importance of “Spiral Testing”
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23
Outlook
Copyright © 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24
Questions?
Caitlin Harrington Lee
Aviation Correspondent, Americas Bureau, IHS Jane’s
CaitlinHarringtonLee@gmail.com
Huw Williams
Unmanned Systems Editor, Jane’s International Defence Review
Huw.Williams@janes.com
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