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___________________________________________________________________________
2012/CTI2/MAG/DIA/007
Innovation & Technology Convergence: The Latest Developments in the ICT Sector
Submitted by: Institute for Information Industry
Information Technology Agreement Dialogue
Singapore29 March 2012
3/29/2012
1
Innovation & Technology Convergence: The Latest Developments in the ICT Sector
ITA Dialogue, 2012
The Latest Developments in the ICT Sector
Sam Shen, Director
http://mic.iii.org.tw
Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute(MIC)
Institute for Information Industry
2012.03.29
Outlines
Current Challenge of ICT Industry
F f PC d T bl M k Forecast of PC and Tablet Markets
The Convergence Trend of ICTs industry
The Coping Strategies
The ICT Industry Outlook and Opportunity
Conclusion: The ICT Convergence and ITA
-1-
Conclusion: The ICT Convergence and ITA
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2
Current challenge of ICT industry
-2-
2011~12:The Global Turmoil Intensified
Japan Earthquake
Currency War
Trade FrictionThailand Flood
Natural Crisis
BRIC
Unemployment Debt Crisis
Emerging Markets
Stock MarketCollapse
Flood
RegionalCompetition
Globalization
Crisis
-3-
ASEANRecession
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3
200
220ICT services
6.0%
ICT industry maturing, value-add varies by sector
Growth of ICT sector and total value added in the OECD area, 1995-2008Index 1995 = 100, compound annual growth rate in current exchange rates (%)
100
120
140
160
180
200
Services 4.8%Total ICT 4.7%Total business
sector 4.2%
Manufacturing2.5%
ICT Manufacturing.
1.0%
-4-
60
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source:OECD Information Technology Outlook 2010 Highlights, Feb. 2011.
Computing wave: once every 7 years
Computing Revolution
E-mail became an d
Improvements in
Putting computing power in the hands of individuals
making it easier for users to take advantage of the power ofcomputing
Becoming a platform for services, and for publishing and sharing
information
everyday communications tool and informationbecame dramatically easier
to find and share
pprocessing power, storage, broadbandnetworks, natural user interfacesand ubiquitous
screens
-5-
Low pricePC Internet Web2.0 PC and
Mobile DeviceGraphicUser Interface
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4
Global IT spending still with 2-digit grow
10%
20%
30%
250 000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Worldwide: End-User Spending on Client Computing by Region (Millions of Dollars), 2008-2014
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
2009 2010(e) 2011(f) 2012(f) 2013(f) 2014(f)
United States Canada
Latin America Western Europe
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2008 2009 2010(e) 2011(f) 2012(f) 2013(f) 2014(f)
United States Canada
-6-
Latin America Western Europe
Central and Eastern Europe Middle East and AfricaJapan Asia/Pacific
United States CanadaLatin America Western EuropeCentral and Eastern Europe Middle East and AfricJapan Asia/Pacific
2009 2010(e) 2011(f) 2012(f) 2013(f) 2014(f)
WW -9.6% 11.0% 11.4% 10.2% 7.7% 8.8%
US CA LA WE CCE MEA JP AP WW
2011(f) 9.4% 13.2% 15.3% 5.1% 14.1% 21.9% 7.8% 14.9% 11.4%
Source:MIC,Mar. 2012
Forecast of PC and Tablet Markets
-7-
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5
50%
70%
90%
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Worldwide PC Market PredictionShipment Unit (k) Growth Rate (%)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(e) 2012(f) 2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f) 2016(f)
PC Vol 238,847 266,358 271,188 311,111 327,816 342,280 368,685 393,574 424,114 452,794
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
-8-
PC Vol 238,847 266,358 271,188 311,111 327,816 342,280 368,685 393,574 424,114 452,794
DT Vol 141,355 133,521 118,301 129,130 133,839 132,481 130,504 126,420 121,231 114,760
NB Vol 97,192 121,627 125,368 152,921 171,979 191,024 220,473 249,819 285,329 320,145
NetB Vol 300 11,210 27,519 29,060 21,998 18,775 17,708 17,335 17,554 17,889
PC GR(%) 11.7% 11.5% 1.8% 14.7% 5.4% 4.4% 7.7% 6.8% 7.8% 6.8%
DT GR(%) 3.2% -5.5% -11.4% 9.2% 3.6% -1.0% -1.5% -3.1% -4.1% -5.3%
NB GR(%) 63.5% 25.1% 3.1% 22.0% 12.5% 11.1% 15.4% 13.3% 14.2% 12.2%
NetB GR(%) 3636.7% 145.5% 5.6% -24.3% -14.7% -5.7% -2.1% 1.3% 1.9%
Source:MIC,Mar. 2012
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Media Tablet takes the leadShipment Unit (k) Growth Rate(%)Worldwide Nb and Netbook PC Market
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(e) 2012(f) 2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f) 2016(f)
NetB Vol 300 11,210 27,519 29,060 21,998 18,775 17,708 17,335 17,554 17,889
NB Vol 97,192 121,627 125,368 152,921 171,979 191,024 220,473 249,819 285,329 320,145
NB GR(%) 63.5% 25.1% 3.1% 22.0% 12.5% 11.1% 15.4% 13.3% 14.2% 12.2%
NetB GR(%) 145.5% 5.6% -24.3% -14.7% -5.7% -2.1% 1.3% 1.9%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
0
50,000
100,000
,
-9-
Source:MIC,Mar. 2012
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6
Worldwide PC Growth (with Tablet)Shipment Unit (k) Growth Rate (%)
-10-
Source:MIC,Mar. 2012
The convergence trends of ICTs industry
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ConsumerBehavior
The Emerging Digital Content Ecosystem
Increasingly Complex Industry Dynamics in Media Distribution
Media & Entertain‐ment
ConsumerElectronics
DIGITALCONTENTECOSYSTEM
-12-
Service Providers
Multiple Computing Platforms
MobileInternet
3rd GenerationData Center
CloudComputing
-13-
Green IT SystemStorage
Source:MIC,Mar. 2012
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The convergence trends of ICTs industry
C t tC t tConsumerConsumer
Fixed
Mobile WLAN/WiMax
CommunicationsCommunications
SmartSmartMgmt.Mgmt.
Infra
WebService
AP
OS
Search
Audio Video Data
SmartSmartBroadcasting Broadcasting
Reality Reality BroadcastingBroadcasting
InternetInternetTVTV
DTVDTVHDTVHDTV
UDTVUDTV 3DTV3DTV
HDHDDisplayDisplay
ContentContentConsumerConsumer
Broadcasting
Quad PlayQuad Play
Spread Spread ApplicationApplication
Dressing/Food
InteractiveInteractive
-14-
Grid Grid Quantum Quantum
Autonomic Autonomic ConsciousnessConsciousness
Computing Computing
Living
MedicalFoodEducation Entertainment
Transportation
The Driver - Application Convergence
Integration of Video, Data, Voice Functions- Triple Play Service
EPG M lti Vi i TV
IP BasedService
VoiceData
Video
Wi-FiVoIP Phone
Video Phone
PC
Internet Access
Home Shopping
Home Banking Telemedicine
EPG Multi-View i-TV
VODPVR
-15-
E-LearningVoice
Video
Datanetwork Cordless Caller ID phone
OnlineGaming
Source: MIC/III, Sep. 2011
3/29/2012
9
Network is converging too…
Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0
InternetInternet
Internet
-16-
User Access Content User Generate Content User Generate Web
Access by PC Access/Generate by Mobile Access/Generate by All
Device-based Business Application-based Business User-based Business
Vendor-centric Cocompetition OS-centric Cocompetition Platform-centric Cocompetition
The coping strategies
-17-
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10
From Device-based to User-based
1 Device Revenuex $500
Device sales win market share; service sales win wallet share
49 songs x $1.36
67 times
$5300~1 set x $30
x $0.52Service Revenue
$105
-18-
234 times x $0.014
Next Smartphonewith 2-year Contract
Source:MIC,March. 2012
The Key: User/Customer Stickiness
Google: Web centric Apple: User centric
> 50% of Android Smartphone users stick to Android while buying a Smartphone next time…
> 85% of iPhone users stick to iPhone while buying a Smartphone next time…
> 50% of iPad users who have no iPhone will buy an iPhone as their next Smartphone!!
Google: Web-centric Apple: User-centricCloud as Computing Center Cloud for Device Transformation
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Continuous Purchase Complementary PurchaseSource:MIC,Mar. 2012
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11
The ICT industry outlook and opportunity
-20-
Many killer applications on the way…
-21-
Source:STMicroelectronics,Dec. 2011
3/29/2012
12
Another Opportunity: Cloud Computing
Cloud Service Cloud Terminal
IT Hardware Industry
IT Software & Service Industry
(Solution) (Device)
Broadband Infra(Equipment)
Cloud DC(System/Equip.)
-22-
Communication & Telecom Industry
All of ICT Industry
• Global ICT makers’ capabilities extend from manufacturing to product concept, product design and services.
ICT’s opportunities under the trend
• As smart, convergence, mobility and personalization are key trends in the global ICT industry, global ICT makers have developed the necessary capabilities to deal with these trends and have expanded their operations accordingly.
• The System Service is an evitable bili f h ICT k i
-23-
capability for those ICT makers in the near future.
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13
1. In 1996, 8 categories of ICT products covered under the ITA agreement (such as semiconductors, computers, and telecommunications equipment) had a significant impact on expanding global trade in ICT products.
Conclusion: The ICT Convergence and ITA
2. However the initial ITA agreement did not cover a number of core ICT products such as DRAM. Moreover, technology has since spawned the creation of hundreds of innovative new information technology products, everything from GPS systems and flat panel displays to e-readers, video game consoles, and remote home and patient monitoring devices as well as an entirely new class of semiconductor chips called multi-component (MCO) semiconductors, many of which are not covered under the ITA’s tariff-eliminating regime
-24-
eliminating regime.
Conclusion: The ICT Convergence and ITA
3. After 15 years, it’s time to think about the expansion of ITA agreement, expand product coverage and encourage all WTO members to join the ITA Agreementall WTO members to join the ITA Agreement.
4. As product coverage for ITA expansion, we recommend that ITA expansion should include ICT manufacture equipment, semiconductor process equipment, office peripheral telecommunications and personal computer peripheral equipments, etc.
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p p q p
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Thank You Thank You
-26-
Insight with an Asian Perspective
Intellitectual Property Right Statement
The content herein represents our analysis of information generally available to the public or communicated to us by knowledgeable individuals orcommunicated to us by knowledgeable individuals or companies, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.
© Copyright 2012 Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute, a division of Institute for Information Industry. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this
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y g ppublication without prior written permission is forbidden.
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