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© OECD/IEA 2016
Marine Gorner
ITF workshop
Decarbonising urban transport
Paris, 19 April 2018
IEA Mobility Model
© OECD/IEA 2016
Energy Technology Perspectives series
Published since 2006 in several editions
Analyzing economy-wide energy and GHG emissions
ETP 2016:
focus on urban energy systems
addition of urban analysis capability in the Mobility Model
ETP 2017:
Beyond 2 Degree Scenario (B2DS): net-0 GHG emissions by 2060
© OECD/IEA 2016
ETP Urban analysis
Focus on sustainable urban energy systems
Policy objectives: environmental sustainability, energy security, and economic development
Analysis of how local and national energy policies can be more effectively aligned
Transport chapter
Estimate of global transportation activity, energy demand and GHG emissions in urban areas
Projections under the different ETP model scenarios
Analysis of the sustainable energy technology options, looking primarily at urban transportation
Identification of policy solutions
© OECD/IEA 2016
ETP Urban analysis
Total transport energy demand, 2015:
107 EJ
40% in urban areas
Passenger, urban:
1: cars
2: 2-3 wheelers (emerging economies)
Freight, urban:
1% of urban activity (trucks)
But 20% of urban energy use (higher energy and GHG intensity of road freight, especially in the urban environment)
© OECD/IEA 2016
GHG emissions Mostly from cars (also urban), trucks and air
2015 total estimate (well to wheel): 9.5 Gt of CO2 equivalent
Transport is the least diversified energy demand sector
Oil products: more than 90% of the energy consumed
GHG emission distribution mirrors closely energy demand
Non-urban - Well to Tank Non-urban - Tank to Wheel
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500
3 wheelers
Medium trucks
Light commercial
Rail
Shipping
Heavy trucks
Mt of CO2 equivalent
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500
2 & 3 wheelers
Cars
Buses andminibuses
Rail
Air
Mt of CO2 equivalent
Urban - Well to Tank Urban - Tank to Wheel
Passenger Freight
© OECD/IEA 2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2-e
q
OECD
2DS
4DS6DS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Non-OECD
6DS
4DS
2DS
Avoid/Shift Low-carbon fuels Vehicle efficiency
Avoid/Shift Low carbon fuels Vehicle efficiency
UrbanNon-urban
Need to decouple activity & emissions Avoid/shift, efficiency, low carbon fuels
Urban transport activity, 2DS, 2050: passenger +70%, freight + 40% Need to decouple activity and emissions
OECD transport emissions have peaked Non-OECD transport emissions can be brought back to current levels in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2016
Technologies
Technologies capable of delivering the changes required by the 2DS scenario can be categorized as follows:
Technologies allowing to manage travel demand (avoiding travel needs and shifting mobility to the most efficient modes) - closely linked to the deployment of information and communication technologies (ICT)
Technologies improving the energy efficiency of vehicles
Technologies reducing the carbon intensity of fuels
MaaS and Autonomous, Connected and Shared vehicles:
Effect on urban mobility?
© OECD/IEA 2016
Focus on vehicle technologies Cars and LCVs
2DS sees large penetration of electric vehicles on the market
Policies limit LDVs below 2.5 billion in 2050 in 2DS
(Update ETP 2017, B2DS: 1.9 billion)
Electric cars nearly 10% of LDVs stock by 2030, 40% by 2050.
(Update ETP 2017, B2DS: 70% by 2050)
Leading markets are in OECD and China
Gasoline ICE Diesel ICE CNG/LPG Hybrids Plug-in electric Battery electric Fuel cell
Gasoline ICE Diesel ICE CNG/LPG Hybrids Plug-in electric Battery electric Fuel cell
Non-urban
Urban
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2010 2050
Mil
lio
n v
ehic
les
2DS
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2010 2050
4DS
Gasoline ICE Diesel ICE CNG/LPG Hybrids Plug-in electric Battery electric Fuel cell
Gasoline ICE Diesel ICE CNG/LPG Hybrids Plug-in electric Battery electric Fuel cell
Non-urban
Urban
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2010 2050
Mil
lio
n v
ehic
les
2DS
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2010 2050
4DS
Gasoline ICE Diesel ICE CNG/LPG Hybrids Plug-in electric Battery electric Fuel cell
Gasoline ICE Diesel ICE CNG/LPG Hybrids Plug-in electric Battery electric Fuel cell
Non-urban
Urban
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2010 2050
Mil
lio
n v
ehic
les
2DS
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2010 2050
4DS
Urban Non-urban
© OECD/IEA 2016
Rationale for the policy portfolio Drivers of modal choices in cities
Income growth tends to be coupled with growing shares of pkm on cars
Public transport shares in high income countries are clustered in different groups
Fuel taxation and vehicle taxation, as well as local polices, influence the results
Urban density emerges as a key prerequisite to provide mobility options alternative to cars and make sure that public transport maintains relevant shares
© OECD/IEA 2016
Transport Demand Drivers - Passenger
Structural
effect
Income
effect
Cost (USD/km) influences the
evolution of pkm on public and
personal motorised transport
Source: elaboration of UITP, quoted by IEA, 2008
Modal share of personal vehicles in total personal and public transport
© OECD/IEA 2016
Policy recommendations Use a coherent portfolio of instruments
National/Supra-national policies Fuel taxes Removal of fuel subsidies Introduction of CO2 taxation on fuels Fuel economy standards Vehicle taxes, including feebates/bonus-malus schemes RD&D support
Local measures Compact city (e.g. densification, integrating land use and transport
planning, promotion of brownfield development and TOD) Pricing (congestion charges, tolls parking fees) Regulatory (access & parking restrictions, low emission zones) Public transport investments (e.g. network development, subsidies
© OECD/IEA 2016
Policy portfolio
Scope Policy category Impact
Avoid/Shift Vehicle
efficiency
Low carbon
fuels
Local Pricing (congestion charges, tolls
parking fees) Yes Possible none
Regulatory (access & parking
restrictions, low emission zones)Yes Possible Minor
Public transport investments Yes Possible none
Compact city Yes none none
National Fuel taxation Yes Yes Possible
Fuel economy regulations none Yes Possible
Vehicle taxation, feebates Possible Yes Possible
Low carbon fuel standards none none Yes
Alternative fuel mandates none none Yes
RD&D support none yes Yes
© OECD/IEA 2016
Local policies Examples of measures already in use
Front runners exist amongst cities
Effects observed in these cities were instrumental to assess the impact of these policies and generalize it in our projections
© OECD/IEA 2016
Sustainable transport systems: a cheaper way to provide service
Urban transport investments
In the 2DS, by 2050 one billion cars are electric vehicles while public transport travel activity more than doubles
Lower expenditure on the purchase of passenger cars overwhelms the higher costs of low-carbon vehicles
Reduced fuel demand due to avoid + shift + improve
Increase in global infrastructure costs for the scale up of public transport networks is almost entirely offset by the savings from less road building & maintenance
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4DS 2DS
2015 2050
USD
tri
llio
n
Internal combustion engine
Electrified
Parking and road
Metro and light rail
Infrastructure
Vehicles
© OECD/IEA 2016
Thank you for your attention
© OECD/IEA 2016
Additional slides
© OECD/IEA 2016
Passenger transport Urban/non-urban analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Urban Non-urban Urban Non-urban Urban Non-urban
World OECD Non-OECD
Ener
gy d
eman
d (E
J)
Air
Rail
Buses
Minibuses
Large cars
Cars
3 wheelers
2 wheelers
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Urban Non-urban Urban Non-urban Urban Non-urban
World OECD Non-OECD
Ener
gy d
eman
d (E
J)
Air
Rail
Buses
Minibuses
Large cars
Cars
3 wheelers
2 wheelers
Global passenger transport energy demand in 2015, by mode
• Primarily cars, followed by aviation • 2-wheelers (primarily in non-OECD)
© OECD/IEA 2016
Shipping accounts for 81% of all tkm, urban trucks for 1%
But trucks account for the majority of energy use
Freoght transport Urban/non-urban analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Urban Non-urban Urban Non-urban Urban Non-urban
World OECD Non-OECD
Ener
gy d
eman
d (E
J)
Shipping
Rail
Heavy trucks
Mediumtrucks
Lightcommercial
3Ws 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Urban Non-urban Urban Non-urban Urban Non-urban
World OECD Non-OECD
Ener
gy d
eman
d (E
J)
Shipping
Rail
Heavy trucks
Mediumtrucks
Lightcommercial
3Ws
Global freight transport energy demand in 2015, by mode
© OECD/IEA 2016
Energy demand Global results
Transport energy demand 2015 107 EJ
2050 100 (2DS) - 184 EJ (6DS)
2DS sees a net global decline, but not in all regions
2050: increased diversification in all scenarios (far more in 2DS)
Electricity and biofuels needed as substitutes for oil-based fuels
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100 110
2DS 4DS 6DS 2DS 4DS 6DS
2015 2050 2015 2050
Urban Non-urban
EJWorld
Other
Hydrogen
Natural gas
Electricity
Biofuels
Liquid fuels fromfossil energy
© OECD/IEA 2016
Energy demand Regional details
Absolute reductions in OECD, starting within the coming decade, even in 4DS
Absolute increases in energy use of major developing and emerging regions
Even in 2DS, energy use in Africa grows up to 2050, begins to level off in ASEAN and India in the late 2030s to 2040s, and peaks in 2035 in China
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050
EJ
Africa
Liquids from fossil fuels 1st generation biofuels 2nd generation biofuels
Natural gas Electricity Hydrogen
Other 4DS 6DS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050
ASEAN
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050
Brazil
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050
EJ
China
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050
European Union
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050
India
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050
EJ
Mexico
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050
Middle East
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050
United States
© OECD/IEA 2016
Modelling avoid and shifts Link with policy drivers
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 20 40 60 80 100
PLD
Vs
per
100
0 p
eop
le
GDP (2000 USD PPP) per capita
OECDOECD North America Canada Mexico USAOECD Europe France Germany Italy UK EU18-EUG4 EU Nordic Non-EU Nordic Non-EU OE2OECD Pacific Australia and NZ Japan KoreaOther OECDNon OECDEU 6OETERussiaATEChinaODAASEANIndiaMiddle EastLatin America Brazil Other Latin AmericaAfrica South Africa
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0 20 40 60 80 100
PLD
V m
ileag
e [
km p
er
veh
icle
pe
r ye
ar]
GDP (2000 USD PPP) per capita
OECDOECD North America Canada Mexico USAOECD Europe France Germany Italy UK EU18-EUG4 EU Nordic Non-EU Nordic Non-EU OE2OECD Pacific Australia and NZ Japan KoreaOther OECDNon OECDEU 6OETERussiaATEChinaODAASEANIndiaMiddle EastLatin America Brazil Other Latin AmericaAfrica South Africa
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
% o
f p
km o
n p
erso
nal
veh
icle
s
GDP (2000 USD PPP) per capita
OECDOECD North America Canada Mexico USAOECD Europe France Germany Italy UK EU18-EUG4 EU Nordic Non-EU Nordic Non-EU OE2OECD Pacific Australia and NZ Japan KoreaOther OECDNon OECDEU 6OETERussiaATEChinaODAASEANIndiaMiddle EastLatin America Brazil Other Latin AmericaAfrica South Africa
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 20 40 60 80 100
2-3
wh
ee
lers
s p
er
10
00
pe
op
le
GDP (2000 USD PPP) per capita
OECDOECD North America Canada Mexico USAOECD Europe France Germany Italy UK EU18-EUG4 EU Nordic Non-EU Nordic Non-EU OE2OECD Pacific Australia and NZ Japan KoreaOther OECDNon OECDEU 6OETERussiaATEChinaODAASEANIndiaMiddle EastLatin America Brazil Other Latin AmericaAfrica South Africa Other AfricaWORLDEU27
© OECD/IEA 2016
Policy deployment needs Quantitative examples
25% of all cities above 0.5 M inhabitants use extensively, in 2050, at least two out of three of the following instruments Pricing policies: congestion charges, cordon pricing, dynamic
parking pricing or other forms of road charging
Regulatory limitations: low-emission zones, access restrictions, parking restrictions, registration caps
Compact city policy incentives allowing investment in public transport, walking and cycling
Alternatively, 75% of all cities with more than 0.5 M residents need to roll out a more modest but still comprehensive and co-ordinated portfolio of policies in these three main categories
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