HVS DENVER - University of Colorado Boulder · ‐4‐ 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 65.0% 2012...

Brett Russell | brussell@hvs.comDirector of Business Development, Partner

@HVS_Consulting

HVS DENVER

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Strategy Work: Client Feedback

AUGUST 2015

A deeper look at what our clients say about us…

SUPERIOR RESULTS THROUGHUNRIVALED HOSPITALITYINTELLIGENCE. EVERYWHERE

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NATIONAL HISTORICAL & FORECAST MARKET PERFORMANCE

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60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015 f 2016 F 2017 f 2018 f

Nation’s Occupancy Expected to Stabilize in the Next Three Years

Forecast

Source: HVS & STR

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$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 f 2016 F 2017 f 2018 f

ADR RevPAR Forecast

Nation’s ADR & RevPAR Expected to Increase in the Next Two Years

Source: HVS & STR

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NATIONAL NEW SUPPLY

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As of September 2015, Over 3,500 Hotels Were in Different Stages of Development in the U.S.

Source: STR

53,691

1,002

1,515

1,082

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Existing

Under Construction

Final Planning

Planning

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NATIONAL HOTEL VALUE EXPECTATIONS

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Values Expected to Dip Slightly as a Result of the Increase in New Supply

‐4.14%

‐14.88%

‐30.74%

16.83%19.77% 19.34%

15.05%

10.38%7.16% 5.40%

2.54%

‐1.73%

0.11%

‐40.00%

‐30.00%

‐20.00%

‐10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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NATIONAL OVERALL CAP RATES

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Full‐Service, First‐Class, and Luxury Overall Cap Rates

6.07.08.09.0

10.011.012.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Overall  Cap

 Rate (%

)

PWC ‐ Full‐Service PWC ‐ Luxury

Situs RERC ‐ First Tier PWC ‐ Select‐Service

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NATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

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U.S. Hotel Transaction Volume by Year (Sales Above $2.5M)

Source: RCA

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000

2005200620072008200920102011201220132014

2014/15 2Q

Transaction Volume ($ in Millions)

$2.5M‐$10M $10M+

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DENVER HISTORICAL & FORECAST MARKET PERFORMANCE

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Forecast

Denver Occupancy is Expected to Decline as New Hotels Open

Source: HVS & STR

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 f 2016 F 2017 f 2018 f

Denver Nation

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$70.00

$90.00

$110.00

$130.00

$150.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 f 2016 F 2017 f 2018 f

Denver Nation

Forecast

Denver ADR Expected to Stabilize After 2016

Source: HVS & STR

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Forecast

Denver RevPAR is Expected to Slightly Decline After 2016

Source: HVS & STR

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 f 2016 F 2017 f 2018 f

Denver Nation

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DENVER NEW SUPPLY PIPELINE

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Major Proposed Developments

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More than 5,600 Rooms are Currently in the Pipeline

Millennium Magnolia Hotel Expansion

Westin Denver International Airport

Hyatt House Hotel Hyatt Place Hotel

Kimpton Hotel

Hyatt Fitzsimons Village HotelFairfield Inn & Suites245 Columbine Hotel 

Z Block Mixed Use Development Hilton Home2 Suites 

IHG Hotel Indigo Union Tower WestStarwood Westin Greenwood Village 

Proposed Dry Creek Mixed Use Corporate Center

Residence Inn by Marriott Proposed TownePlace Suites by Marriott 

Lone Tree Courtyard by Marriott Highlands Ranch

Source: HVS

2015 2016

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DENVER HOTEL VALUE EXPECTATION

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HVI – Hotel Values Expected to Decline After 2016

Source: http://hvi.hvs.com

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Denver Transactions (Last 12 Months)

Source: HVS & RCA

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ANY QUESTIONS?

‐ 25 ‐ Superior results through unrivalled hospitality intelligence. Everywhere

Brett RussellDirector of Business Development, Partnerbrussell@hvs.com, +1 (720) 877‐1376

@hotelskigolf@HVS_Consulting