How Capping Aviation’s Carbon Pollution Can Help Give Wings to Broader Climate Goals

Annie Petsonk, International Counsel, September 2014

How Capping Aviation’s Carbon Pollution Can Help Give Wings to Broader Climate Goals

~ 30,000 new large aircraft by 2032

Aviation: 2% of global CO2 emissions today, but forecasted to quadruple in coming years

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS: International Civil Aviation Organization

…with a 2016 deadline for a single global MBM

“Four pillars” on emissions: - technology- operations- alt. fuels- market-based measure (MBM)

Industry’s view Source: IATA

MBM: The Players

ICAO Industry ICAO ICSA

-193 countries-Montreal HQ-36-state Council-17-state EAG- CAEP- Steering

Group - GMTF - MRV - Units - AFTF

-IATA: 85% int’l air travel -Geneva/Montreal HQ -Nat’l/regional groups-Manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus, GE, UTC, etc.)-Airports, air navigation-Business jetsOverall: a powerful, well-financed lobby that sees it must address GHG emissions

-EDF a co-founder-T&E-AEF(UK)-GermanWatch-CarbonMarketWatch-NRDC-WWF-ICCT

Others (IETA, VCS, UNFCCC, etc.)

USEPA Endangerment Finding, CO2

standard (litigation brought by EJ,

CBD

Industry’s goals

Industry’s analysis

Source: IATA

The Challenges

• Develop policy options that: – Address Common but Differential growth in

regional air traffic post-2020,

– By ensuring that participating jurisdictions can offer high-quality emissions units, encourage broad engagement,

– minimize overall compliance costs.

• While UNFCCC moves toward Paris 2015, maintain momentum in ICAO toward 2016

Carbon Markets & Aviation

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…to build a winning coalition in ICAO

NOTE: Central traffic growth scenario; international emission reductions target: 50% emissions cut by 2050; no auction; upper and lower estimates for case 1 and 2 depend on in-sector abatement. Lower (green) bars; airlines may start purchasing emissions units today, before other sectors. Upper (blue) bars: airlines wait until after 2020 to purchase emissions units and face maximum competition. Source: EDF analysis.

If airlines move early, CNG2020 would add $1.5-$2.5 to CDG-JFK ticket in 2030, but if they wait, the cost goes up

Parallel Market (CASE 1)

Integrated Market (CASE 2)

2030

2014• CAEP / CAEP SG /

GMTF meets 3-4 times, finalizes recommendations on MRV, emissions units

• EAG meets regularly in Montreal, finalizes MBM options based on "straw man" proposal

2015• CAEP GMTF

analyzes costs of options

• CAEP AFTF analyzes LCA of biofuels

• EAG/Council recommend a particular option

• UNFCCC Paris COP

2016• Awareness-raising

in key countries• Recommended

option presented to Council, regional groups

• Assembly decision on adoption of ICAO MBM via a set of operator standards

Photo: www.momscleanairforce.org

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For more information, please contact:Annie Petsonk, apetsonk@edf.org +1-202-365-3237